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Algeria’s Foreign Reserves Decline by $30b

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Algeria continues to face important challenges posed by lower oil prices, leaving its foreign reserves falling by $30 billion to $113 billion.

From March 7 to 20, 2017, an IMF team led by Mr Jean-François Dauphin, visited Algiers to hold discussions for the 2017 Article IV consultation.

Discussions focused on the appropriate mix of policies to adjust to lower oil prices.

Mr Dauphin noted that Algeria’s overall economic activity was resilient, but growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector slowed under the effects of spending cuts and is estimated at 3.4 percent in 2016.

He said further that inflation increased from 4.8 percent in 2015 to 6.4 percent in 2016 and stood at 8.1 percent year-on-year in January 2017.

Also, he observed that unemployment increased to 10.5 percent in September 2016 and remains particularly high among the youth (26.7 percent) and women (20.1 percent).

But despite some fiscal consolidation in 2016, the fiscal and current account deficits remained large, and public debt increased.

“Efforts to adjust to the oil price shock are underway. The authorities achieved a notable reduction in the fiscal deficit in 2016 and have adopted an ambitious fiscal consolidation plan for 2017-19. They made progress improving the business environment and are working on a long-term strategy to reshape the country’s growth model to foster greater private sector activity and economic diversification. The central bank is adapting its monetary policy instruments to a tighter liquidity environment. This growing reform momentum is welcome.

“A key challenge at this juncture is choosing a policy mix that will help the economy adjust to the oil price shock in a way that is sustainable and the least costly in terms of growth and employment.

“Fiscal consolidation will need to be sustained as oil prices are expected to remain low and hydrocarbon reserves are exhaustible. At this stage, the consolidation should rely primarily on broadening the tax base, including through better tax enforcement and the rationalization of tax exemptions; containing current spending; gradually replacing costly energy subsidies, which mostly benefit the well-off, by direct support to the population most in need; and improving the efficiency of capital spending and reducing its cost. Investment in health, education, and well-targeted social safety nets should be preserved. These efforts should be supported by further strengthening the budget framework and closely monitoring growing fiscal risks.

“Too abrupt a fiscal deficit reduction, however, should be avoided to reduce the risk of a sharp slowdown in growth. In the mission’s view, given the relatively low level of public debt, Algeria could afford a somewhat more gradual fiscal consolidation than entailed in the current medium-term budget framework if it were to consider a broader range of financing options, including external borrowing and the sale of state assets,” Mr Dauphin said.

He said further that, “Th e mission strongly supports the authorities’ objective to decrease the economy’s dependence on hydrocarbons and unleash the potential of the private sector. This is not only needed to adjust to lower oil prices but also to ensure a sustainable source of job creation even beyond the horizon for proven oil and gas reserves. Achieving this goal will require wide-ranging structural reforms. Measures are needed to improve the business environment and access to finance, strengthen governance and transparency, make the labor market more effective, ensure that skills produced by the education system and sought by students match the needs of employers, foster greater female participation in the labor market, and further open the economy to foreign investment. The overall strategy should be designed and sequenced so that reforms reinforce each other and the burden of economic adjustment is shared equitably. Action should be timely as structural reforms take time to bear fruit.

“Exchange rate, monetary, and financial policies should support the adjustment. Further efforts to bring the dinar in line with fundamentals, combined with steps toward the elimination of the parallel foreign exchange market, would support fiscal and external adjustment. The Bank of Algeria is appropriately introducing open market operations, which should become its main monetary policy tool. The Bank of Algeria will need to stand ready to tighten monetary policy in light of growing inflationary pressures. Based on preliminary data, the banking sector as a whole remains adequately capitalized and profitable, but the oil price shock has increased liquidity, interest rate, and credit risks. It is therefore important to accelerate the transition to a risk-based supervisory framework, enhance the role of macro-prudential policy, strengthen the governance of public banks, and develop a crisis resolution framework.”

Mr Dauphin disclosed that during the visit, his team met with Finance Minister Hadji Baba Ammi; Industry and Mines Minister Abdessalem Bouchouareb; Acting Trade Minister and Housing and Urban Development Minister Abdelmadjid Tebboune; Education Minister Nouria Benghebrit; Labour, Employment, and Social Security Minister Mohamed El Ghazi and the Governor of the Bank of Algeria, Mohamed Loukal. The mission also held discussions with other senior government and central bank officials as well as with representatives of the economic and financial sectors and civil society.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Oil Falls Ahead of US-Iran Talks, Logs Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2022

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New Oil Grade

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil futures settled lower on Friday ahead of talks between Iran and the United States aimed at securing a ‌permanent ceasefire.

Brent futures lost 72 cents or 0.8 per cent to trade at $95.20 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by $1.30 or 1.3 per cent to $96.57 ​a barrel. As a result, these benchmarks posted their biggest weekly decline since 2022.

Despite the ceasefire announced earlier this week, traffic through the critical oil chokepoint remains severely restricted and under supervision and approval by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Crude futures hovered near $100 a barrel as attacks continued and the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily restricted, and concerns lingered over potential supply disruptions in Saudi Arabia. Prices in the physical market were at record highs.

Market analysts noted that the key issue for the oil ⁠market is whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will resume. However, there are no signs of this happening. If oil supplies from the Persian Gulf remain blocked, ​oil prices are likely to rise again.

According to Reuters, traffic through the strait remained less than 10 per cent of normal volumes as Iran warned ships to keep to ​its territorial waters. Most ships that have sailed through the Strait in the past day were linked to Iran.

Iran also wants to charge fees for ships to pass through the Strait under a peace deal.

Oil prices could spike and hit again their peak Iran-war levels at nearly $120 per barrel if a full recovery of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz takes until July, according to JP Morgan.

Attacks on Saudi energy facilities have cut the kingdom’s oil production capacity by about 600,000 barrels per day ​and reduced its East-West Pipeline throughput by about 700,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, Lebanon said it intends to take part in a meeting with ​the US and Israeli representatives in ⁠Washington next week to discuss and announce a ceasefire.

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Economy

Oyedele Admits FG Working to Correct Errors in New Tax Laws

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Taiwo Oyedele

By Dipo Olowookere

The Minister of State for Finance, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has finally admitted that the new controversial tax laws have some errors, which he said the federal government was working to correct.

Before becoming a Minister a few weeks ago, Mr Oyedele headed the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee set up by President Bola Tinubu to formulate new tax laws for Nigeria.

In a post on X by the team on Friday, it was disclosed that the former employee of PwC noted that the discrepancies occurred due to manual processes and multiple stages of review, but steps were underway to correct identified issues through a proposed finance bill.

“What we need is a more transparent and reliable legislative process where every version of a law is publicly available,” he stated at the 2026 Annual Conference of the Nigerian Bar Association Section on Legal Practice.

At the event themed, From Policy to Practice: Making Sense of Nigeria’s New Tax Reforms, Mr Oyedele underscored the critical role of legal practitioners in shaping economic outcomes through tax advisory and compliance.

“The decisions lawyers help businesses make will determine investment, job creation, and revenue generation,” he said, calling for greater impact and efficiency, as Nigeria still lags behind countries like South Africa in tax collection.

“If we improve collection, we can significantly increase funding for infrastructure, education, and healthcare,” he added, urging lawyers to focus on effective implementation, stressing that the success of the reforms ultimately depends on how well they are applied in practice.

The Minister declared that enforcing Nigeria’s new tax laws would not be arbitrary, emphasising that reforms are rooted in clear policy intent, transparency, and fairness.

He stressed the importance of understanding the rationale behind tax laws rather than focusing solely on their provisions, pointing out that many professionals often overlook the underlying purpose of tax legislation, noting that policy intent should guide both interpretation and implementation.

According to him, the reform process prioritised creating incentives for businesses to formalise, while ensuring policy consistency and reducing discretion in tax administration.

On inclusivity, Mr Oyedele said the new tax framework deliberately protects low-income earners and small businesses.

He revealed that individuals earning around N1 million annually and a large portion of small businesses, estimated at 30 to 40 million, have limited capacity to pay taxes and are therefore shielded under the reforms.

 “Nearly half of working Nigerians earn less than N70,000 monthly. Taxing them aggressively would be unjust,” he said, adding that the reforms also eliminate practices such as minimum tax payments on loss-making businesses, which he described as effectively taxing capital rather than profit.

The Minister noted that essential goods and services, including food, education, and healthcare, have been exempted from Value Added Tax (VAT), making the system more progressive.

He further explained that the reforms consolidated multiple tax laws into four major pieces of legislation, including the Nigeria Tax Act and the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, aimed at simplifying compliance and improving coordination among tax authorities.

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Economy

UN to Help Attract Mining, Agric Investors to Zamfara

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zamfara state map

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The United Nations has expressed its readiness to assist in attracting investors to Zamfara State, especially in the mining and agricultural sectors.

The Deputy Secretary General of the global body, Mrs Amina Mohammed, during a visit on Thursday, said the northern Nigerian state is now ready for business and that the UN was willing to be a genuine partner to the state.

“Investors want an enabling environment. Peace is what you need today for people to come. The Zamfara narrative focuses on conflict related to solid minerals, and this needs to change,” she was quoted as saying in a statement issued on Friday by the spokesperson for the Zamfara Governor, Mr Sulaiman Bala Idris.

The former Nigerian Minister further said, “What you show us today is first and foremost your passion for what you want us to do, and that is what investors want. They want to know what you want.

“I am happy today to be here in Zamfara, because I really want to show the world that we should pay attention to what is happening at the local level. Because this is where people are weakest, where governance is weakest, and where there are the fewest resources.

“When we visit, we give visibility to the effort that has been made and to the impact of what is happening elsewhere in the world on people who have nothing to do with what caused it in the first place.

“Zamfara State is accessible today. And it would be even more accessible because the road we travelled on is still under construction. When it is finished, it will revive the businesses and markets around it, and hopefully, by then, we will witness more peace.

“I see the mining, I see the potentials, I see the market and the demand, but I also see the leadership here who is willing to look at the institution, framework and partner to get the job done.

“There is a lot of hope and potential here. Everyone must play their role; this is not something the governor will do alone. The United Nations is willing to be a genuine partner to Zamfara State.”

On his part, Governor Dauda Lawal said Zamfara is at a turning point, with a population of 5.3 million, and the state’s economy is agriculture-driven, with 82 per cent of the population depending on agriculture.

“Zamfara’s Six-Point Rescue Agenda is a deliberate strategy to stabilise, rebuild, and transition the state toward inclusive and sustainable development,” he told his guest.

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