Economy
Cold Weather Demand, Positive China Stimulus Move Buoy Oil Prices
By Adedapo Adesanya
Cold weather in Europe and the United States added to the positive development around economic stimulus in China to raise the prices f crude oil grades on Friday, January 3.
Brent crude futures were up by 69 cents or 0.9 per cent to trade at $76.62 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.11 or 1.5 per cent to $74.24 a barrel.
For the week, Brent rose by 3.3 per cent while WTI made a 5 per cent increase.
The price was up on signs that the Chinese economic situation has created expectations of policy measures to boost growth in the world’s top oil-importing country.
Market analysts noted that China is stepping up in terms of their announcements about trying to stoke economic activity and the market is taking note of that.
Worries about Chinese demand were a factor in bearish demand assumptions last year, leading to major policy changes, including extensions by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+.
The world’s largest oil importer announced a couple of new measures to boost growth this week with a surprise move to raise wages for government workers and the announcement of a sharp increase in funding from ultra-long treasury bonds.
The additional funding is to be used to spur business investment and consumer-boosting initiatives.
Also, weather lent support as early signals showed an expected increase in demand for heating oil- a product of crude oil – after forecasts for colder weather in some regions.
Based on trends, oil demand is more likely to benefit from cold temperatures across Europe and the US.
Supporting prices were US crude stockpiles dropping by 1.2 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels last week, according to data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) just as US gasoline (petrol) and distillate inventories jumped as refineries ramped up output while fuel demand hit a two-year low.
However, a stronger US Dollar impacted prices which was on track for its best week in about two months.
A stronger greenback makes oil expensive for holders of other currencies.
This happened on expectations that the US economy will continue to outperform its peers globally this year and that US interest rates will stay relatively higher.
Higher rates increase borrowing costs, which can cut economic growth and oil demand.
By Adedapo Adesanya
About 395,000 barrels per day of crude oil were delivered to the Dangote Refinery in December under the crude-for-Naira deal with the federal government through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
The volume of black gold supplied to the Lagos-based facility was 40 per cent higher than the 280,000 barrels per day delivered in November.
According to a report from Argus, the crude receipts at the 650,000 barrels per day capacity Dangote refinery rose to a new high in December.
It gathered the data from its tracking systems as well as from Kpler and Vortexa data.
The report said that this was the fourth consecutive month that crude deliveries were all Nigerian and did not include any US WTI.
Deliveries of WTI had been anticipated in December, but did not materialise.
The Dangote Group said it is aiming for 350,000 barrels per day throughput in a first phase of operations.
It had achieved this mark in June as receipts hit 350,000 barrels per day but fell back after that. Since March, when crude delivery began to increase, estimated receipts have averaged a little under 275,000 barrels per day.
Recall that Dangote Refinery had bought some foreign cargoes when NNPC could not adequately supply it with the needed resources.
In July, President Bola Tinubu directed the NNPC to commence sales of crude oil in Naira to local private refiners as part of efforts to boost domestic capacity and reduce foreign exchange pressure on the economy.
Last month’s receipts included cargoes of Nigerian grades Escravos, Bonny Light, CJ Blend, Qua Iboe, and Erha.
Bonny Light was the largest single grade at 140,000 barrels per day.
It was disclosed that three deliveries on very large crude carriers (VLCC) helped boost receipts in the review month.
Argus added that no cargoes of Forcados or Amenam were delivered to Dangote last month, having previously been regular grades at the refinery.
Dangote Group is also maintaining a very consistent slate in terms of gravity and especially sulphur content.
Argus assessed Dangote’s December slate at a weighted average gravity of 36.3°API and under 0.2 per cent sulphur content, compared with 36.4°API and under 0.2 per cent sulphur in November. In March-December, the slate averaged 36.3°API and again, under 0.2 per cent sulphur.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Seplat Energy plans to increase its crude oil production by 140 per cent from about 50,000 barrels a day to roughly 120,000 barrels per day over the next six months, a top executive management disclosed this in a series of interviews with the Financial Times.
Recall that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in October 2024 approved Seplat’s acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) from ExxonMobil as part of a series of approvals.
The completion of the $1.28 billion Seplat-ExxonMobil deal has created Nigeria’s leading independent energy company, with the enlarged company having equity in 11 blocks (onshore and shallow water Nigeria); 48 producing oil and gas fields; 5 gas processing facilities; and 3 export terminals.
The acquisition of the entire issued share capital of MPNU adds the following assets to the Seplat Group: 40 per cent operated interest in OML 67, 68, 70 and 104; 40 per cent operated interest in the Qua Iboe export terminal and the Yoho FSO; 51 per cent operated interest in the Bonny River Terminal (‘BRT’) NGL recovery plant; 9.6 per cent participating interest in the Aneman-Kpono field; and approximately 1,000 staff and 500 contractors will transition to the Seplat Group.
“The assets have had very minimal investments until now,” the oil major’s chief financial officer, Mrs Eleanor Adaralegbe, told the newspaper.
“We expect that once we come in there will be an opportunity to grow that much further,” she added.
The company also plans to revive hundreds of Nigerian oil wells laying fallow, which according to Seplat’s chief executive, Mr Roger Brown, will be done in a collaborative effort with the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited as legally mandated in the country’s oil and gas industry.
“We have no concerns working with NNPC . . . There’s been a massive change with President Tinubu, realising that production is a great way of getting dollars into the country and supporting the currency,” Mr Brown said.
This was backed up by Seplat’s chief operating officer, Mr Samson Ezugworie, who noted that some of the assets will require time and investment so they can begin to produce again after being left idle.
“We have over 600 wells drilled and barely 200 of them are producing. We have significant idle wells that need to be rejuvenated and brought back into production within a short period of time.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s external debt servicing costs surged by 38 per cent in the first nine months of 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The surge translated to Nigeria’s apex bank spending a whopping $3.53 billion to service the country’s debts, indicating a $970 million jump compared to $2.56 billion during the same period in 2023.
This was contained in CBN’s International Payment Data published on its website.
The increase underscored the intensifying fiscal pressures facing Nigeria’s economy amid dwindling revenues, inflationary pressures, and currency depreciation.
A month-by-month analysis highlighted the scale of the challenge and showed that in January 2024, Nigeria spent $560.52 million on external debt servicing, marking a sharp increase from $112.35 million in January 2023.
February 2024 followed with $283.22 million, slightly below the $288.54 million recorded the previous year.
March 2024 showed a decline, with $276.17 million spent, compared to $400.47 million in March 2023, a 31 per cent drop.
In April 2024, debt servicing rose to $215.20 million, a 132 per cent increase, compared to $92.85 million in April 2023.
May 2024 saw the highest monthly expenditure of $854.37 million, a staggering 287 per cent jump from $221.05 million in May 2023.
By contrast, June 2024 recorded $50.82 million, slightly lower than the $54.36 million spent in June 2023.
The mid-year trend showed mixed movements as debt servicing fell to $542.50 million in July 2024, a 15 per cent decline from $641.69 million in July 2023.
August 2024 followed a similar trajectory, with $279.95 million spent compared to $309.96 million the previous year, a 10 per cent reduction.
However, September 2024 marked an increase, with $515.81 million spent, up 17 per cent from $439.06 million in September 2023.
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