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Afreximbank Predicts 4% Real GDP Growth for Africa Amid Economic Challenges

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4.03% GDP Growth

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has projected a 4 per cent real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Africa in  2025 amid global economic fragility.

This forecast was contained in the 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) Report carried out by the Cairo-based lender, which noted that Africa’s real GDP could reach 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.2 per cent in 2027.

The 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) provides an in-depth analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the short-to- medium term.

It highlights the key macroeconomic and trade developments shaping Africa’s recovery, detailing opportunities for sustainable growth amid heightening global and domestic uncertainties.

The  2025 ATEO report said 41 per cent of African economies were projected to grow by at least five per cent, nearly double the global rate of 21 per cent, reflecting the continent’s expanding role as a driver of global growth.

According to the report, Africa’s gradual recovery would be supported by increased global demand for African exports, the disinflation trend, and the implementation of structural reforms to diversify African economies

The report said the  were  downside risks to the African economic outlook, including rising geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices.

“Economic slowdown in the United States and China may also impact the international financial conditions and the demand for African resources.

“Internal conflicts and climate change threaten stability and growth.”

However, the report said potential upside risks include the anticipated decline in global interest rates, which would begin in 2025 if geopolitical uncertainty remained unchanged, potentially enhancing access to financing.

“Additionally, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents an opportunity to boost economic integration and intra-African trade, reducing vulnerability to external shocks in the medium term.”

To address potential downside risks, the report suggests several short-term strategies which include  adopting a nuanced and proactive monetary policy stance, and enhancing resilience against climate-related and geopolitical disruptions.

Other strategies include boosting domestic consumption alongside the service sector and accelerating the implementation of the AfCFTA agreement.

In the medium term, the report said strategies should shift toward economic diversification through strategic investments in human capital development and workforce training within key emerging sectors.

“Additionally, efforts should be made to improve economic governance, public infrastructure, and initiatives to strengthen intra-African trade dynamics.”

The report highlighted several challenges and solutions for Africa to attain stability and sustainable development amid a rapidly uncertain global landscape.

The first challenge identified was Africa’s reliance on commodity exports which had made countries vulnerable to fluctuations in world commodity prices.

“To reduce their exposure to these price fluctuations, it is crucial to accelerate the structural shift to a more diversified and resilient economy.”

The second challenge identified was debt sustainability, with the report stating that several African countries allocate over 50 per cent of their revenues to debt servicing, due to their large development financing needs.

“Ensuring debt sustainability requires more efficient public spending and prioritisation of growth-oriented investment projects.”

The report said the third challenge involved human capital and skill development.

To tackle this challenge, the report suggests that governments should invest more resources to improve healthcare and promote collaboration between the public and private sectors.

“ Strengthening training in sciences and technology facilitates skill development and talent allocation, which is essential for successful structural transformation.”

It said the fourth challenge was the weak social outcomes of economic growth in Africa caused by slow progress in poverty reduction.

“To boost poverty-reducing potential growth, improving the provision of basic public infrastructure and services is vital, reducing dependency on natural resources through structural transformation.

“Addressing inequalities must be an integral part of sustainable development goals, ensuring equitable access to quality education, healthcare, energy, transport infrastructure, and financial services.”

The final challenge identified in the report was the growing concerns about environmental degradation and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.

“For sustainable economic development, promotion of green growth must align with comprehensive policy frameworks that address climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, while recognizing continental development needs and challenges.”

The 2025 ATEO  provides an in-depth analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the short-to-medium term.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Access Holdings, Fidelity Bank, Chams Emerge Busiest Equities

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Access Holdings

By Dipo Olowookere

The three busiest equities on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week were Access Holdings, Fidelity Bank, and Chams Holdco.

The trio accounted for 20.90 per cent and 5.69 per cent of the total trading volume and value, respectively, after trading 485.749 million units worth N7.656 billion in 17,843 deals.

In the week, investors transacted 2.324 billion shares valued at N134.486 billion in 249,328 deals versus the 3.075 billion shares worth N254.614 billion executed in 287,157 deals in the previous week.

The financial services space led the activity chart with 1.523 billion stocks sold for N47.542 billion in 105,230 deals, contributing 65.53 per cent and 35.35 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively. The ICT industry exchanged 198.821 million shares worth N32.622 billion in 29,905 deals, and the consumer goods sector posted a turnover of 151.635 million shares worth N10.933 billion in 23,951 deals.

In the five-day trading week, 22 equities appreciated versus 11 equities a week earlier, 57 equities depreciated versus 78 equities of the previous week, and 67 equities remained unchanged versus 57 equities in the preceding week.

McNichols gained 26.47 per cent to trade at N8.60, International Energy Insurance appreciated by 14.43 per cent to N5.79, GTCO expanded by 10.69 per cent to N127.90, First Holdco jumped by 10.00 per cent to N55.00, and Airtel Africa also climbed 10.00 per cent to settle at N4,358.80.

On the flip side, Trans-Nationwide Express declined by 26.79 per cent to N3.28, Deap Capital slipped by 23.31 per cent to N3.75, Abbey Mortgage Bank lost 20.30 per cent to trade at N8.05, Aradel Holdings contracted by 19.00 per cent to N1,417.50, and Regency Assurance dropped 18.56 per cent to close at 79 Kobo.

The All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation, which measures the performance level of Customs Street, depreciated last week by 1.65 per cent and 1.60 per cent each to 232,049.02 points and N148.905 trillion, respectively.

Similarly, all other indices finished lower except the CG, banking, AFR Bank Value, AFR Div Yield and MERI Value indices, which grew by 2.40 per cent, 3.51 per cent, 3.28 per cent, 9.93 per cent and 0.56 per cent, respectively.

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Economy

Proposed Import Ban Won’t Revive Nigeria’s Textile Industry—CPPE

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textile ban

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has cautioned against the Senate’s resolution seeking to ban the importation of textile fabrics, warning that such a move could be counterintuitive as it would undermine key industries, threaten millions of jobs and fail to revive Nigeria’s struggling textile sector.

According to the chief executive of the think-tank, Mr Muda Yusuf, while the objective of revitalising the textile industry was commendable, an outright import prohibition would likely create more economic challenges than solutions.

The Senate had urged the federal government to implement an import ban for an initial period of five years. The motion, sponsored by Senator Sunday Katung, is to create a protected window for domestic cotton farmers and local textile mills to scale up production.

Mr Yusuf noted that the import ban wasn’t the major driving force behind the country’s ailing textile sector, adding that it was driven mainly by structural constraints such as high energy costs, poor infrastructure, expensive credit and obsolete technology.

Other factors, he said, driving the decline of the sector included logistics bottlenecks, smuggling and policy inconsistency, rather than import competition.

According to him, restricting textile imports will disrupt production across the country’s garment, fashion, tailoring, furniture and interior design industries, which depend heavily on imported fabrics as production inputs.

He said that Nigeria’s fashion, garment-making and tailoring industry, valued at about N10 trillion, supported an estimated 10 million livelihoods and represented one of the country’s most vibrant creative economy sectors.

He further stated that the sector generates significant domestic value addition through design, tailoring, branding, embroidery, merchandising and retailing, often exceeding the value of the imported textile inputs.

“Restricting textile imports would increase production costs, reduce consumer choice and threaten thousands of micro, small and medium enterprises engaged in fashion, tailoring and garment manufacturing,” he said.

Mr Yusuf added that textile fabrics were also critical inputs for the furniture and interior design industry, valued at about N7 trillion, warning that supply disruptions would weaken the competitiveness of manufacturers.

He further noted that imported textile fabrics already attracted a combined Import Duty and Import Adjustment Tax of between 35 per cent and 45 per cent, yet the existing tariff protection had not restored the competitiveness of local textile manufacturers.

“The core problem lies in production economics rather than import penetration. An import ban addresses the symptom while leaving the underlying causes unresolved,” he said.

Mr Yusuf also maintained that local textile manufacturers currently lacked the capacity to meet the quantity, quality and diversity of fabrics required by the country’s fashion, garment, furniture and interior design industries.

He warned that an outright import ban could therefore create supply shortages and negatively affect downstream sectors that generated significantly more employment than textile manufacturing itself.

The CPPE boss advocated a comprehensive value-chain strategy to revive the textile industry and called for the restoration of domestic cotton production through improved security, mechanisation, better seedlings, extension services and guaranteed off-take arrangements.

He also stressed the need for affordable long-term financing, access to modern technology, a reliable energy supply and a more competitive operating environment for manufacturers.

Among other recommendations, Yusuf urged the government to prioritise locally produced textiles and garments for uniforms used by the military, paramilitary agencies, schools and other public institutions.

He also recommended the establishment of a Textile Competitiveness Fund financed from textile-related import tax revenues to support technology upgrades and industry modernisation.

Other measures proposed include strengthening border enforcement to curb smuggling and implementing reforms aimed at reducing energy and financing costs while improving industrial infrastructure.

Mr Yusuf stressed that sustainable revival of Nigeria’s textile industry would depend on improving competitiveness rather than imposing additional import restrictions.

He warned that a blanket import ban could encourage smuggling, reduce customs revenue and weaken a broader value chain that contributed substantially to employment and economic growth.

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Economy

Pathway Advisors Champions Pivot Energy’s N300bn Commercial Paper for Downstream Expansion

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Pathway Pivot Energy’s N300bn Commercial Paper

By Adedapo Adesanya

Pathway Advisors Limited has announced its role as Lead Issuing House to a N300 billion Commercial Paper Programme for Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited, reinforcing its leadership in capital market advisory and energy sector finance.

The transaction was formally concluded with the execution of programme documentation at Capital Club, Victoria Island, Lagos, following the completion of all regulatory and programme clearances. The signing ceremony marked a defining milestone in mobilising large-scale short-term capital for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

Speaking at the event, the chief executive of Pathway Advisors Limited, Mr Adekunle Alade, emphasised the strategic significance of the Commercial Paper issuance in financing working capital, thereby enabling high-growth energy businesses to scale efficiently and sustainably.

“Nigeria’s downstream energy sector is undergoing a profound transformation, accelerated by the removal of fuel subsidies, the emergence of domestic refining capacity, and rising demand for reliable product supply across the country and the broader West African region.

“Companies like Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited with a vertically integrated model, a strong track record, and a clear growth mandate are exactly the kind of issuers that the capital markets should be financing,” Mr Alade stated.

“Commercial paper, when structured appropriately, gives operationally strong businesses access to a deep and diverse pool of institutional investors, at tenors and costs that support the working capital intensity of petroleum trading and distribution. This transaction is a testament to what is achievable when credible issuers partner with experienced advisers to access the markets,” he added.

“The successful execution of this programme further affirms Pathway Advisors’ position as a trusted financial advisory and investment banking firm in complex, large-scale capital market transactions,” he stated.

In his comments, the chief executive of Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited, Mr Babajide Babatope, described the commercial paper programme as a pivotal step in the company’s strategy to expand its supply capacity and strengthen its position as a leading integrated energy provider in Nigeria and West Africa.

“Nigeria’s downstream energy market demands scale, speed, and the right capital structure to compete effectively. This commercial paper programme gives us the financial firepower to support our growing volumes, reinforce our supply chain, and serve our customers with greater reliability across the regions we operate in,” Mr Babatope disclosed.

He noted that Pivot is one of the 20 approved off-takers in the Dangote Refinery PMS Consortium, with a target volume of 300 million litres per quarter, a position that underscores the company’s standing in Nigeria’s post-subsidy energy supply architecture. He added that the CP Programme would also support the company’s accelerating regional push, including active operations in Ghana, where Pivot has delivered over 100,000 MT since April 2025, and a planned entry into Tanzania with deliveries targeted in Q3 of 2026.

Mr Babatope further expressed appreciation to Pathway Advisors and other transaction parties for their professionalism, rigour, and commitment throughout the programme’s execution, and signalled his intention to continue deepening these partnerships as Pivot advances to subsequent phases of growth and financing.

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