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Afreximbank Predicts 4% Real GDP Growth for Africa Amid Economic Challenges

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4.03% GDP Growth

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has projected a 4 per cent real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Africa in  2025 amid global economic fragility.

This forecast was contained in the 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) Report carried out by the Cairo-based lender, which noted that Africa’s real GDP could reach 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.2 per cent in 2027.

The 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) provides an in-depth analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the short-to- medium term.

It highlights the key macroeconomic and trade developments shaping Africa’s recovery, detailing opportunities for sustainable growth amid heightening global and domestic uncertainties.

The  2025 ATEO report said 41 per cent of African economies were projected to grow by at least five per cent, nearly double the global rate of 21 per cent, reflecting the continent’s expanding role as a driver of global growth.

According to the report, Africa’s gradual recovery would be supported by increased global demand for African exports, the disinflation trend, and the implementation of structural reforms to diversify African economies

The report said the  were  downside risks to the African economic outlook, including rising geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices.

“Economic slowdown in the United States and China may also impact the international financial conditions and the demand for African resources.

“Internal conflicts and climate change threaten stability and growth.”

However, the report said potential upside risks include the anticipated decline in global interest rates, which would begin in 2025 if geopolitical uncertainty remained unchanged, potentially enhancing access to financing.

“Additionally, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents an opportunity to boost economic integration and intra-African trade, reducing vulnerability to external shocks in the medium term.”

To address potential downside risks, the report suggests several short-term strategies which include  adopting a nuanced and proactive monetary policy stance, and enhancing resilience against climate-related and geopolitical disruptions.

Other strategies include boosting domestic consumption alongside the service sector and accelerating the implementation of the AfCFTA agreement.

In the medium term, the report said strategies should shift toward economic diversification through strategic investments in human capital development and workforce training within key emerging sectors.

“Additionally, efforts should be made to improve economic governance, public infrastructure, and initiatives to strengthen intra-African trade dynamics.”

The report highlighted several challenges and solutions for Africa to attain stability and sustainable development amid a rapidly uncertain global landscape.

The first challenge identified was Africa’s reliance on commodity exports which had made countries vulnerable to fluctuations in world commodity prices.

“To reduce their exposure to these price fluctuations, it is crucial to accelerate the structural shift to a more diversified and resilient economy.”

The second challenge identified was debt sustainability, with the report stating that several African countries allocate over 50 per cent of their revenues to debt servicing, due to their large development financing needs.

“Ensuring debt sustainability requires more efficient public spending and prioritisation of growth-oriented investment projects.”

The report said the third challenge involved human capital and skill development.

To tackle this challenge, the report suggests that governments should invest more resources to improve healthcare and promote collaboration between the public and private sectors.

“ Strengthening training in sciences and technology facilitates skill development and talent allocation, which is essential for successful structural transformation.”

It said the fourth challenge was the weak social outcomes of economic growth in Africa caused by slow progress in poverty reduction.

“To boost poverty-reducing potential growth, improving the provision of basic public infrastructure and services is vital, reducing dependency on natural resources through structural transformation.

“Addressing inequalities must be an integral part of sustainable development goals, ensuring equitable access to quality education, healthcare, energy, transport infrastructure, and financial services.”

The final challenge identified in the report was the growing concerns about environmental degradation and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.

“For sustainable economic development, promotion of green growth must align with comprehensive policy frameworks that address climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, while recognizing continental development needs and challenges.”

The 2025 ATEO  provides an in-depth analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the short-to-medium term.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Pathway Advisors Champions Pivot Energy’s N300bn Commercial Paper for Downstream Expansion

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Pathway Pivot Energy’s N300bn Commercial Paper

By Adedapo Adesanya

Pathway Advisors Limited has announced its role as Lead Issuing House to a N300 billion Commercial Paper Programme for Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited, reinforcing its leadership in capital market advisory and energy sector finance.

The transaction was formally concluded with the execution of programme documentation at Capital Club, Victoria Island, Lagos, following the completion of all regulatory and programme clearances. The signing ceremony marked a defining milestone in mobilising large-scale short-term capital for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

Speaking at the event, the chief executive of Pathway Advisors Limited, Mr Adekunle Alade, emphasised the strategic significance of the Commercial Paper issuance in financing working capital, thereby enabling high-growth energy businesses to scale efficiently and sustainably.

“Nigeria’s downstream energy sector is undergoing a profound transformation, accelerated by the removal of fuel subsidies, the emergence of domestic refining capacity, and rising demand for reliable product supply across the country and the broader West African region.

“Companies like Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited with a vertically integrated model, a strong track record, and a clear growth mandate are exactly the kind of issuers that the capital markets should be financing,” Mr Alade stated.

“Commercial paper, when structured appropriately, gives operationally strong businesses access to a deep and diverse pool of institutional investors, at tenors and costs that support the working capital intensity of petroleum trading and distribution. This transaction is a testament to what is achievable when credible issuers partner with experienced advisers to access the markets,” he added.

“The successful execution of this programme further affirms Pathway Advisors’ position as a trusted financial advisory and investment banking firm in complex, large-scale capital market transactions,” he stated.

In his comments, the chief executive of Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited, Mr Babajide Babatope, described the commercial paper programme as a pivotal step in the company’s strategy to expand its supply capacity and strengthen its position as a leading integrated energy provider in Nigeria and West Africa.

“Nigeria’s downstream energy market demands scale, speed, and the right capital structure to compete effectively. This commercial paper programme gives us the financial firepower to support our growing volumes, reinforce our supply chain, and serve our customers with greater reliability across the regions we operate in,” Mr Babatope disclosed.

He noted that Pivot is one of the 20 approved off-takers in the Dangote Refinery PMS Consortium, with a target volume of 300 million litres per quarter, a position that underscores the company’s standing in Nigeria’s post-subsidy energy supply architecture. He added that the CP Programme would also support the company’s accelerating regional push, including active operations in Ghana, where Pivot has delivered over 100,000 MT since April 2025, and a planned entry into Tanzania with deliveries targeted in Q3 of 2026.

Mr Babatope further expressed appreciation to Pathway Advisors and other transaction parties for their professionalism, rigour, and commitment throughout the programme’s execution, and signalled his intention to continue deepening these partnerships as Pivot advances to subsequent phases of growth and financing.

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Economy

South Korea Commits $12bn to SMEDAN’s Entrepreneurship Drive

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MSMEs Minimum Wage Payment

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN) has secured a $12 billion commitment from South Korea to establish a Skills Acquisition Centre in Abuja, as part of efforts to strengthen entrepreneurship and boost small businesses across Nigeria.

The chief executive of SMEDAN, Mr Charles Odii, disclosed this over the weekend during a road walk and sensitisation campaign at Utako Market in Abuja to commemorate the 2026 World MSME Day.

According to Mr Odii, the proposed facility will provide vocational and entrepreneurial training to young Nigerians and enhance the capacity of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).

He said the agency is awaiting the allocation of land by the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Administration for the project.

“We need land in the FCT to build the Skills Acquisition Centre. If the FCT Administration is unable to provide one, we will use our office premises in Idu, Abuja, because we do not want Nigeria to miss this opportunity offered by the Korean Government to support skills and vocational training,” he said.

As part of activities marking the World MSME Day, Mr Odii also announced the launch of SMEDAN’s N500 million GROW Fund, a zero-interest financing intervention designed to support small businesses across the country.

He explained that the fund would be disbursed to members of registered cooperative societies and business associations to strengthen their enterprises.

According to him, beneficiaries are expected to utilise the funds strictly for business purposes, including expanding working capital, acquiring workspaces and purchasing equipment.

“The funding is meant to support and improve their businesses. It should be used for working capital, workspaces, tools and other productive business needs. Any use outside these objectives will not be encouraged,” he said.

Mr Odii further disclosed that entrepreneurs trained by SMEDAN in Abuja would receive vocational equipment, including washing machines, barbing kits, shoemaking tools and sewing machines, to enable them to become self-reliant.

“We have identified these tools as essential to the businesses of our trainees based on the skills programmes they have undergone,” he added.

The SMEDAN boss stressed that the agency’s interventions are driven by the critical role MSMEs play in Nigeria’s economy.

“Small businesses are the heartbeat of Nigeria’s economy. By providing infrastructure, skills and financing, we are creating an enabling environment for them to grow, thrive and contribute meaningfully to national development,” he said.

Odii also revealed that the National MSME Policy would be reviewed and relaunched in November 2026 to strengthen the sector and improve its contribution to economic growth.

He called on state governments to collaborate with SMEDAN in expanding skills acquisition programmes, creating jobs, reducing poverty and supporting the economic development agenda of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Broadens Feedstock Base With UAE Crude Purchase

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dangote refinery trucks

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has purchased two cargoes of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking its first-ever procurement of Middle Eastern crude as it diversifies its feedstock sources ahead of continuous expansion.

According to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the two cargoes will be the first sourced by the 700,000-barrels-per-day refinery from any Middle Eastern supplier, signalling a shift from its traditional reliance on Nigerian, African, and United States crude grades.

The report said the purchases followed the resumption of oil exports from the Middle East after the United States and Iran reached an interim peace agreement that restored confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The refinery, designed primarily to process Nigeria’s light sweet crude, has increasingly diversified its crude slate as operations ramp up. The company sources crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.

The refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Plc had agreed on the supply of between 13 and 15 cargoes of Nigerian crude monthly in Naira, but the volumes often fluctuate. In May, the state oil company allocated seven cargoes to the plant, up from five in previous months.

The chief executive of the Dangote Refinery, Mr David Bird, had previously disclosed that these constraints had compelled the company to seek additional crude sources outside Nigeria.

According to S&P Global, the refinery has been broadening the range of crude grades it processes as part of its ambition to operate as a fully merchant refinery. The report noted that in 2025, about 70 per cent of the refinery’s crude imports came from Nigeria, while 24 per cent originated from the United States.

The report added that the refinery’s expansion plans would further increase its crude requirements. Dangote plans to double the refinery’s processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2028, a level that would enable it to process about 80 per cent of Nigeria’s recent crude oil production in a single day.

Business Post understands that since NNPC cargoes are cheaper for the ​refinery because of lower ​shipping costs, importation of crude could translate to higher fuel prices, with Nigerians possibly buying as high as N1,300 – N1,400 at the pump.

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