Economy
Afreximbank Predicts 4% Real GDP Growth for Africa Amid Economic Challenges
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has projected a 4 per cent real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Africa in 2025 amid global economic fragility.
This forecast was contained in the 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) Report carried out by the Cairo-based lender, which noted that Africa’s real GDP could reach 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.2 per cent in 2027.
The 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) provides an in-depth analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the short-to- medium term.
It highlights the key macroeconomic and trade developments shaping Africa’s recovery, detailing opportunities for sustainable growth amid heightening global and domestic uncertainties.
The 2025 ATEO report said 41 per cent of African economies were projected to grow by at least five per cent, nearly double the global rate of 21 per cent, reflecting the continent’s expanding role as a driver of global growth.
According to the report, Africa’s gradual recovery would be supported by increased global demand for African exports, the disinflation trend, and the implementation of structural reforms to diversify African economies
The report said the were downside risks to the African economic outlook, including rising geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices.
“Economic slowdown in the United States and China may also impact the international financial conditions and the demand for African resources.
“Internal conflicts and climate change threaten stability and growth.”
However, the report said potential upside risks include the anticipated decline in global interest rates, which would begin in 2025 if geopolitical uncertainty remained unchanged, potentially enhancing access to financing.
“Additionally, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents an opportunity to boost economic integration and intra-African trade, reducing vulnerability to external shocks in the medium term.”
To address potential downside risks, the report suggests several short-term strategies which include adopting a nuanced and proactive monetary policy stance, and enhancing resilience against climate-related and geopolitical disruptions.
Other strategies include boosting domestic consumption alongside the service sector and accelerating the implementation of the AfCFTA agreement.
In the medium term, the report said strategies should shift toward economic diversification through strategic investments in human capital development and workforce training within key emerging sectors.
“Additionally, efforts should be made to improve economic governance, public infrastructure, and initiatives to strengthen intra-African trade dynamics.”
The report highlighted several challenges and solutions for Africa to attain stability and sustainable development amid a rapidly uncertain global landscape.
The first challenge identified was Africa’s reliance on commodity exports which had made countries vulnerable to fluctuations in world commodity prices.
“To reduce their exposure to these price fluctuations, it is crucial to accelerate the structural shift to a more diversified and resilient economy.”
The second challenge identified was debt sustainability, with the report stating that several African countries allocate over 50 per cent of their revenues to debt servicing, due to their large development financing needs.
“Ensuring debt sustainability requires more efficient public spending and prioritisation of growth-oriented investment projects.”
The report said the third challenge involved human capital and skill development.
To tackle this challenge, the report suggests that governments should invest more resources to improve healthcare and promote collaboration between the public and private sectors.
“ Strengthening training in sciences and technology facilitates skill development and talent allocation, which is essential for successful structural transformation.”
It said the fourth challenge was the weak social outcomes of economic growth in Africa caused by slow progress in poverty reduction.
“To boost poverty-reducing potential growth, improving the provision of basic public infrastructure and services is vital, reducing dependency on natural resources through structural transformation.
“Addressing inequalities must be an integral part of sustainable development goals, ensuring equitable access to quality education, healthcare, energy, transport infrastructure, and financial services.”
The final challenge identified in the report was the growing concerns about environmental degradation and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.
“For sustainable economic development, promotion of green growth must align with comprehensive policy frameworks that address climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, while recognizing continental development needs and challenges.”
The 2025 ATEO provides an in-depth analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the short-to-medium term.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange weakened by 0.22 per cent on Tuesday, April 28, with the market capitalisation down by N4.8 billion to N2.420 trillion from N2.425 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) down by 9.01 points to 4,044.96 points from 4,053.97 points.
During the session, the price of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by N1.82 to N767.05 per share from N78.87 per share, while FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by N1.90 to N100.00 per unit from N98.10 per unit.
According to data, the value of trades increased by 265.7 per cent to N27.1 million from N7.4 million units, and the volume of transactions surged by 305.2 per cent to 1.3 million units from 319,831 units, while the number of deals decreased by 6.9 per cent to 27 deals from 29 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with the sale of 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.8 million units exchanged for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units traded for N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc also finished as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with a turnover of 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Pressure is beginning to mount on the Nigerian Naira in the different segments of the foreign exchange (FX) market despite an oil windfall triggered by the Middle East crisis.
On Monday, April 27, the domestic currency further weakened against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) by N16.47 or 1.2 per cent to N1,380.71/$1 from the previous day’s N1,364.24/$1.
It was not different against the Pound Sterling in the same market window, as it lost N16.04 to trade at N1,863.76/£1 versus Monday’s closing rate of N1,847.72/£1, and against the Euro, it slipped by N12.72 to close at N1,615.01/€1 versus N1,602.29/€1.
The Naira also depreciated against the Dollar at the black market yesterday by N5 to quote at N1,390/$1 compared with the previous price of N1,385, and at the GTBank forex counter, it further crashed by N9 to settle at N1,379/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,370/$1.
The continued decline of the Naira comes as traders increasingly seek other safe-haven currencies amid continued global disruptions.
The benefit awash in the global market is making foreign portfolio investors stay short in Nigerian markets. Despite this, the daily FX publication released showed that interbank turnover rose to $98.829 million across 78 deals, up from $76.65 million.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market remained cautious, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $77,216.66 despite surging oil prices and geopolitical tensions over a potential extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts say the supply overhang has finally dried up, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side.
Investors will await decisions made by central banks this week. The US Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank (ECB) follows on Thursday.
Ethereum (ETH) gained 1.5 per cent to trade at $2,324.59, Dogecoin (DOGE) chalked up 1.4 per cent to sell for $0.1016, Solana (SOL) appreciated by 0.6 per cent to $84.85, Cardano (ADA) grew by 0.5 per cent to $0.2483, and Binance Coin (BNB) advanced by 0.2 per cent to $627.15.
However, TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.6 per cent to $0.3224, and Ripple (XRP) lost 0.03 per cent to sell at $1.39, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) were unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil was up by nearly 3 per cent on Tuesday as persistent worries about supply constraints from the closed Strait of Hormuz continued, with Brent futures for June rising by $3.03 or 2.8 per cent to $111.26 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures growing by $3.56 or 3.7 per cent to $99.93 a barrel.
An earlier round of negotiations between the United States and Iran collapsed last week after face-to-face talks failed.
Ship-tracking data showed significant disruptions in the region, with six Iranian oil tankers forced to turn back due to the US blockade, but some traffic is still moving.
Prices trimmed some of the advances after the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the fourth-largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said on Tuesday it would exit the group on this Friday, May 1, 2026.
This dealt a blow to the oil-exporting group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia.
The UAE could quickly add between 1 million and 1.5 million barrels per day of output. However, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, analysts said that there’s nowhere for that supply to go.
The UAE joined OPEC in 1967, but tension with Saudi Arabia over production quotas has been building for years.
Under the OPEC+ deal, the country has been held to roughly 3 million barrels per day while sitting on capacity above 4 million. It has been pushing toward 5 million barrels per day by 2027, and that target is hard to achieve with quotas built around someone else’s view of the market.
The war in Yemen broke whatever was left of diplomatic patience.
President Donald Trump said he was unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal to end the war. The proposal would avoid addressing the nuclear programme until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.
The Idemitsu Maru, a Panama-flagged tanker carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi oil, and an LNG tanker managed by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) crossed the Strait on Tuesday, shipping data showed.
Vortexa data showed that the amount of crude oil held around the world on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose to 153.11 million barrels as of April 24.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 1.79 million barrels in the week ending April 24. The official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.
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