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Southeast Asia Navigates U.S. Tariffs: An Octa Broker Analysis
Ever since Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States (U.S.), the markets have grown increasingly concerned about the health of the world economy. Specifically, the outlook for the international trade order became uncertain as Trump’s 2024 election platform included expansive claims about new tariffs. Indeed, on 2 April, 2025, Trump unveiled his long-promised ‘reciprocal’ tariffs strategy, essentially imposing hefty import duties on more than a hundred of countries. However, less than a week after revealing his reciprocal tariffs, Trump adjusted his policy, declaring that countries that had not retaliated would receive a reprieve until July and would only face a blanket US tariff of 10%. At the same time, the tariffs on China were increased even further.
The principal idea behind Trump’s aggressive trade policy is that higher import costs would encourage global manufacturers to re-locate production into the U.S., while also pressuring other nations to buy more U.S. goods, thereby correcting the U.S.’s massive trade deficit. Thus, counties that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. have most to fear and most to lose from these tariffs. Many of these countries are located in South and Southeast Asia (see the table below). For these countries, Trump’s decision to pause the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days has offered a critical window for negotiation.
| Trade balance with the U.S. (million USD) | Share of U.S. imports | After reciprocal tariffs imposed | Total until July | |
| Cambodia | 9,652 | <1% | 49% | 10% |
| China | 359,850 | 13.4% | 34% | negotiations still ongoing |
| India | 42,931 | 2.7% | 26% | 10% |
| Indonesia | 12,638 | <1% | 32% | 10% |
| Laos | -109 | <1% | 48% | 10% |
| Malaysia | 15,744 | 1.6% | 24% | 10% |
| Myanmar | 361 | <1% | 44% | 10% |
| Philippines | 3,276 | <1% | 17% | 10% |
| Singapore | -11,850 | 1.3% | 10% | 10% |
| Thailand | 35,045 | 1.9% | 36% | 10% |
| Vietnam | 103,392 | 4.2% | 46% | 10% |
Source: International Monetary Fund, White House
The negotiations between the U.S. with China commenced and have already yielded some positive results. There is hope among other Asian states that similar productive discussions and agreements to mitigate the impact of the proposed tariffs can follow. The coming weeks are crucial as countries navigate the negotiation period before the 90-day pause expires, seeking to secure more favorable trade conditions with the U.S.
China is a central focus of the U.S. trade policy. In 2024, the total value of goods traded between two countries was approximately $582.4 billion. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese imports of electronic equipment and machinery, while China primarily imports U.S. mineral fuels, oil seeds, electrical machinery and mechanical appliances. However, the trade balance significantly favors China, which recorded a $360 billion surplus with the U.S. in 2024, according to IMF data.
Last Monday, Donald Trump announced a broad trade deal with Beijing that lowered import taxes on all Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. China, in turn, lowered its tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%. The reductions will hold for the next 90 days, while the two countries negotiate a longer-term deal. A few days later, the U.S. cut the so-called ‘de minimis’ tariff for low-value shipments from China to as low as 30%. Meanwhile, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said it had paused some non-tariff measures taken against 17 U.S. entities put on its unreliable entity list in April and 28 U.S. entities on its export control list.
‘A full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies would have been disastrous for the global market. Thankfully, the officials agreed to de-escalate it quickly. However, we are still not out of the woods yet’, says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, adding that a long-term trade agreement between China and the U.S. is yet to be finalized and that markets are being a bit too optimistic right now. ‘Let’s not forget that Trump tried to renegotiate a trade deal with China during his 1st term, but the talks failed in 2019 despite the fact that there was agreement in principle. And I personally believe that the markets are a bit too optimistic about the prospects for a grand deal this time’.
Indeed, U.S. equity indices have recovered swiftly following the decision to de-escalate, but the rally may not last. ‘It would not take much for the bearish sentiment to reemerge. Although tariffs have been lowered, the existing tariffs are still doing damage to the global economy. U.S. inflation is likely to pick up in the months ahead and that would prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from delivering on anticipated rate cuts, which may trigger a major selloff in equities’, comments Kar Yong Ang. Either way, other Asian countries are monitoring the progress carefully and are also engaged in active discussions with the U.S. officials.
Vietnam faces duties of 46% on its exports to the U.S. if a reduction cannot be negotiated before a global moratorium expires in July. As a major export-reliant industrial hub, to where numerous companies have relocated (not least in order to lower their exposure to China), Vietnam runs the second-largest trade surplus with the U.S. among Asian countries. It is, therefore, unsurprising, that the two countries began informal talks to avoid tariffs well before Trump announced global reciprocal duties on 2 April. Among the issues discussed are the reduction of Vietnam’s big trade surplus, the fight against trade fraud such as illegal transshipments, the lowering of tariff and non-tariff barriers for U.S. businesses and enhanced protection of intellectual property, including the fight against counterfeits and digital piracy.
‘Vietnam stands to lose a lot should trade talks fail. Companies like Apple, Nike, and Samsung Electronics have large manufacturing operations in the country and may consider leaving altogether if a 46% duty is introduced. I think Vietnamese authorities will do their best to achieve a trade deal with the U.S.’, commented Kar Yong Ang.
Indeed, just a few days ago, Vietnam News Agency reported that Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh ordered a one-month intensive campaign to crack down on smuggling, trade fraud and counterfeit goods. Previously, the news surfaced that the Trump Organization was partnering with Vietnam on potential investments in hotel, real estate and golf course projects possibly worth billions of dollars.
According to the WorldBank, the U.S. is Vietnam’s largest export market with a share of at least 30% and more than $110 billion worth of shipments.
Thailand faces duties of 36% on its exports to the U.S. According to the Bangkok Post, Thai government had said that it would increase imports of U.S. goods, such as corn, soybean meal, crude, ethane, liquified natural gas, autos and electronics to reduce its bilateral trade surplus. In addition, the government submitted a separate trade proposal to the U.S., which included 5 to 6 key points. Last Monday, the head of Thailand Trade Representatives met with U.S. senators, congressional leaders, and major American companies, in a bid to reaffirm Thailand’s role as a key investor in the country and explore joint Thai-U.S. manufacturing.
‘Thailand has clearly taken the trade matters quite seriously despite its relatively small trade surplus. There are good chances that a final agreement could be reached before global pause expires in July’, commented Kar Yong Ang.
According to the WorldBank, the U.S. is Thailand’s largest export market with a share of at least 16% and more than $50 billion worth of shipments.
Malaysia faces duties of 24% on its exports to the U.S. However, Tengku Zafrul Aziz, Malaysia’s Minister of Investment, Trade, and Industry, recently said that he was ‘optimistic‘ for a trade agreement with the U.S. within a 90-day period. He visited the U.S. at the end of April and was fully committed to resolving the differences. ‘All communication lines remain open and we will continue to work towards an amicable solution to this reciprocal tariff matter’, Tengku Zafrul Aziz said.
‘It seems like the Forex market shares the trade minister’s optimism. The Malaysian ringgit has been strengthening lately. USDMYR may potentially drop below 4.240 if a trade deal is struck’, commented Kar Yong Ang.
According to the WorldBank, United States is Malaysia’s third largest export market with a share of at least 11% and more than $40 billion worth of shipments.
Indonesia plans to “narrow” or even eliminate its trade surplus with the U.S. by importing more agricultural products such as wheat, soybeans and corn from the U.S. Overall, Indonesia’s reaction to Trump tariffs has been rather muted probably because exports to the U.S. account for just around 2% of Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Moreover, Indonesia’s exports are relatively well diversified and although the U. S. is an important export destination, its share is relatively minor.
According to the WorldBank, the U.S. is Indonesia’s second largest export market with a share of at least 10% and more than $30 billion worth of shipments.
On balance, Asian nations find themselves in a crucial period, actively negotiating with the U.S. to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs. While the progress achieved during the U.S.-China talks offers some hope, the diverse situations and negotiating stances of countries like Vietnam, India, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia highlight the complexity of reaching widespread agreements. As Octa Broker analysts suggest, the optimism surrounding these trade discussions should be tempered with the understanding that lasting resolutions remain uncertain, and market reactions may be premature.
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Octa
Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.
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In Southeast Asia, Octa received the ‘Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024’ and the ‘Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023’ awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
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MarsLab Introduces Singapore-Based AI Inference Infrastructure Roadmap for Enterprise and Edge Deployment
MarsLab outlines a system-first approach to AI inference infrastructure for enterprise and edge deployment scenarios.
Hashtag: #AIInfrastructure #AIInference #EdgeAI #EnterpriseAI #Singapore
https://www.marslabai.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/company/marslab-ai/
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About MarsLab Pte Ltd
MarsLab Pte Ltd is a Singapore-based AI inference infrastructure company focused on enterprise and edge AI deployment scenarios. The company works across hardware systems, software stack integration, workload validation, and deployment economics, with a system-first approach to practical AI infrastructure.
Under the agreement, ACx and ALMI will share methodologies and best practices in mall asset operations, leasing strategy and project development to improve operational efficiency, enhance customer experience and maximize the long-term value of CP AXTRA’s land and assets, initially focusing on seven key stores of Makro. The parties will also explore future investment opportunities related to mall and asset development in Thailand, alongside collaborative initiatives for the development of new sites and the redevelopment of existing CP AXTRA sites across the country. This is the third agreement signed between CP AXTRA and Ayala, underscoring the strong partnership and continued collaboration between the two groups, following their previous agreements to operate Makro in the Philippines and expand regional business opportunities.
“This agreement with Ayala allows us to combine CP AXTRA’s deep understanding of the Thai retail market with Ayala’s decades of experience in developing and leasing shopping mall spaces. By applying proven methodologies to our Makro mall, we aim to elevate the standards of the retail environment we offer, not only improving the experience for our shoppers and tenants, but also fostering sustainable growth and creating long-term value for our asset and the surrounding community,” said Tanit Chearavanont, Group Chief Wholesale Business Officer, CP AXTRA Public Company Limited.”
“This is another milestone in our growing relationship and collaboration with the CP Group. Through this partnership, we intend to leverage the complementary strengths of two leading conglomerates to create world-class retail and real estate developments across markets. This also marks Ayala’s entry into the Thailand market, giving us a strong opportunity not only to share our expertise, but also to gain valuable insights from one of Southeast Asia’s most dynamic and developed retail markets. More broadly, this partnership aligns with Ayala’s strategy of bringing the best of the world to the Philippines while showcasing the best of the Philippines to the world,” said Mark Uy, Managing Director and Group Head of Strategy and Business Development, Ayala Corporation.
“Makro’s nationwide footprint gives it a meaningful role in the everyday lives of Thai consumers. Our opportunity is to help turn that everyday relevance into places people choose to stay, explore, and return to. By combining CP AXTRA’s market knowledge with Ayala Malls’ experience in curating retail partners, improving customer journeys, and building community-oriented retail destinations, we believe these sites can become stronger platforms for shoppers, merchant partners, and long-term asset growth,” said Mariana Zobel de Ayala, Managing Director and Group Head of Leasing and Hospitality of Ayala Land.
The collaboration brings two complementary strengths together. CP AXTRA is one of ASEAN’s leading wholesale and retail operators, with more than 2,700 Makro and Lotus’s stores. The company is a regional leader in multi-format, omnichannel retail platforms across Southeast Asia and is advancing toward retail-tech company. ALMI, is one of the Philippines’ leading mall operators, managing 34 shopping centers recognized for their strong retail planning, curated tenant mix, and enhanced customer experience across Southeast Asia. With extensive expertise in leasing, mall operations, facility management, and mixed-use development, ALMI is well positioned to support CP AXTRA in maximizing the value and potential of its Makro mall assets in Thailand. Ayala Corporation also brings a broader consumer and enterprise ecosystem that can complement CP AXTRA’s regional retail expansion, while ACx, its consumer retail unit, adds perspective on evolving customer behavior, format innovation, and retail partnerships.
The MoC builds on the two groups’ existing strategic partnership, which began in 2025 with the formation of CP AXTRA AC CORPORATION to operate Makro stores in the Philippines and was expanded to include a wider range of collaborative opportunities. This new agreement deepens that partnership further, marking the first time Ayala will bring its mall development and leasing expertise directly to CP AXTRA’s operations in Thailand.
Hashtag: #CPAXTRA
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About CP AXTRA
CP AXTRA Public Company Limited, is an operator of Asia’s leading wholesaler and retailer, Makro and Lotus’s. The Company is based in Thailand, with operation across 10 countries. CP AXTRA is committed to fulfilling people’s lives with good health, love, joy, and well-being, by providing solutions and meeting customers’ daily needs with technology, innovation, and operational excellence. With over 30 years of retail experience, CP AXTRA is a trusted partner for both B2B and B2C customers, offering a comprehensive range of products and services. Today, it manages over 2,700 offline stores in Thailand and Asia, with strong online presence.
About Ayala Corporation
For more than 190 years, Ayala Corporation has been building businesses that enable people to thrive.
Ayala, currently one of the largest conglomerates in the Philippines, has meaningful presence in real estate, banking, digital services and telecommunications, and renewable energy. It likewise has a growing presence in healthcare, mobility, and logistics as well as investments in industrial technologies, education, and other ventures. Ayala manages its corporate social responsibility initiatives through Ayala Foundation.
About Ayala Malls
Ayala Malls is the premier lifestyle mall network in the Philippines, known for creating vibrant, well-curated destinations that bring together shopping, dining, culture, and community experiences. With 34 malls nationwide, Ayala Malls continues to lead in elevating the Filipino retail experience by offering a diverse mix of global and local brands, innovative spaces, and enriching events that celebrate local creativity and inclusivity. As part of Ayala Land, the country’s leading real estate developer, Ayala Malls is committed to building dynamic, sustainable spaces where people can connect, thrive, and enjoy life’s everyday moments.
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Aon Brings Leadership Forum to Manila to Help Organisations Navigate Risks and Drive Growth
The event is expected to convene more than 70 C-suite and senior business leaders from top organisations across the Philippines for a closed-door exchange on managing economic, workforce, climate and operational pressures. By bringing together diverse perspectives, the forum aims to foster practical insights and strategies that help organisations navigate uncertainty, protect their businesses and drive sustainable growth.
The program will be officially opened by Karl Hamann, CEO of Philippines for Aon, followed by a keynote from Andrew Jeffries, country director for the Asian Development Bank on the macroeconomic and geopolitical trends shaping the business environment.
Notable speakers include Terence Williams, head of Commercial Risk in Asia Pacific for Aon, and other firm executives alongside external regional leaders, including Annacel Natividad, chief risk officer and sustainability head for Aboitiz Foods Group, and Raymond Martin Aguilar, vice president and head of risk and property management for Globe Telecom, Inc.
“This forum reflects a fundamental shift in how organisations are evolving their approach to risk,” said Williams. “Across Asia Pacific, we are seeing a growing focus on using data and analytics to understand trade-offs, test scenarios and act with greater confidence. Bringing leaders together to share practical experience is critical to strengthening resilience while continuing to drive growth.”
A central feature of the forum will be a C-suite panel on adaptive leadership in a digital world, where senior leaders will share how they are balancing risk, resilience and growth, and the decisions shaping their organisations today. The session will be moderated by Irma Gaviola, head of Commercial Risk, Philippines for Aon.
The program will include risk masterclasses focused on key enterprise exposures, including cyber and climate risks, exploring how organisations can quantify risk, strengthen resilience and design more effective risk transfer strategies.
Participants will also be introduced to Aon’s Risk Analyzers, an interactive environment where clients can experience a suite of analytics-led tools that support scenario testing and supports better risk capital decisions. The tools are designed to help organisations assess exposures and evaluate strategic choices in real time.
“The Philippines sits at the intersection of strong economic growth and increasing risk complexity, said Hamann. “This forum creates a space for candid dialogue and practical insights to help organisations navigate risk with greater clarity and confidence.”
The Better Decisions Leadership Forum is part of Aon’s ongoing commitment to helping organisations turn insight into action – enabling more informed decision-making to protect and grow their business.
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About Aon
Aon plc (NYSE: AON) exists to shape decisions for the better — to protect and enrich the lives of people around the world. Through actionable analytic insight, globally integrated Risk Capital and Human Capital expertise, and locally relevant solutions, our colleagues provide clients in over 120 countries with the clarity and confidence to make better risk and people decisions that help protect and grow their businesses.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in this document is solely for information purposes, for general guidance only and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although Aon endeavours to provide accurate and timely information and uses sources that it considers reliable, the firm does not warrant, represent or guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or fitness for any purpose of any content of this document and can accept no liability for any loss incurred in any way by any person who may rely on it. There can be no guarantee that the information contained in this document will remain accurate as on the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No individual or entity should make decisions or act based solely on the information contained herein without appropriate professional advice and targeted research.
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