Economy
AfDB Expects Nigeria’s Economy to Grow 3.2% in 2025, 3.1% in 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s economic growth is expected to reach 3.2 per cent in 2025 and slow to 3.1 per cent in 2026, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB) in its annual African Economic Outlook report.
This comes as the lender expects Africa’s economic output to grow by 3.9 per cent this year from last year’s pace of 3.3 per cent.
However, this year’s forecast, which covers economies of all its 54 member states, represents a 0.2 percentage points downgrade from the bank’s initial forecast.
The development lender, which is currently holding its annual meeting in Ivory Coast, said this is mainly due to the shocks caused by new trade tariffs imposed by the United States.
The bank also cut its initial 2026 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 4.0 per cent, citing the same uncertainty from trade tariffs.
“Since January 2025, the world has experienced additional shocks, exacerbating an already complex global macroeconomic landscape,” the AfDB said in the report.
“These shocks include a plethora of new tariffs imposed by the United States and retaliatory measures announced and implemented by its trading partners.”
The turmoil is likely to curb global demand due to the resultant economic slowdown, curbing Africa’s exports to the rest of the world, the AfDB said.
“The fluidity of the situation and evolving uncertainty means that the growth impact will depend on the decision of the 90-day pause of “Liberation Day” tariffs announced by the United States,” the lender said.
AfDB warned that although the US accounts for just 5 per cent of Africa’s annual global trade, the continent has already been impacted by a drop in prices of commodity and the downward revaluation of financial assets.
The projected growth in the region for this year will be supported by a growth rate of more than 5 per cent in 21 economies, the AfDB said, with Ethiopia, Niger, Rwanda, and Senegal growing by at least 7 per cent, the lender said in the report.
In the report, the bank also charged Nigeria towards revenue administration reforms. It recommended the creation of online portals for assessment and payment of stamp duties (e-stamp); digitalization of tax clearance certificates (e-TCC); and automation of withholding tax remittances by ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs).
Others include deployment of the Integrated Tax Administration System (ITAS) to tax offices; expansion of the taxpayer register; creation of a specialized collection enforcement function; improvement of integrity of the audit process and staff capacity and infrastructure; compliance levels across all levels of tax payments remain low; and strengthening collection efforts and one-off initiatives such as the Nigerian Voluntary Asset and Income Declaration Scheme (VAIDS).
Economy
NGX RegCo Cautions Investors on Recent Price Movements
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The investing public has been advised to exercise due diligence before trading stocks on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
This caution was given by the NGX Regulation Limited (NGX RegCo), the independent regulatory arm of the NGX Group Plc.
The advisory became necessary in response to notable price movements observed in the shares of certain listed companies over recent trading sessions.
On Monday, the bourse suspended trading in the shares of newly-listed Zichis Agro-allied Industries Plc. The company’s stocks gained almost 900 per cent within a month of its listing on Customs Street.
In a statement today, NGX RegCo urged investors to avoid speculative trading based on unverified information and to consult licensed intermediaries such as stockbrokers or investment advisers when needed.
It explained that its advisory is part of its standard market surveillance functions, as it serves as a measured reminder for investors to prioritise informed and disciplined decision-making.
The notice emphasised that the Exchange will continue to monitor market activities closely in line with its mandate to ensure a fair, orderly, and transparent market.
“NGX RegCo encourages all investors to base their decisions on publicly available information, including a thorough assessment of company fundamentals, financial performance, and risk profile,” a part of the disclosure said.
It reassured all stakeholders that the NGX remains stable, well-regulated, and resilient, saying the platform continues to foster an environment where investors can participate with confidence, supported by robust oversight and transparent market operations.
“Our primary responsibility is to maintain a level playing field where market participants can trade with confidence, backed by timely and accurate information.
“This advisory is a routine communication, reinforcing that sound fundamentals, not speculation, remain the foundation for sustainable investment outcomes. We are fully committed to preserving the integrity and stability of our market,” the chief executive of NGX RegCo, Mr Olufemi Shobanjo, stated.
Economy
Stronger Taxpayer Confidence, Others Should Determine Tax Reform Success—Tegbe
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The chairman of the National Tax Policy Implementation Committee (NTPIC), Mr Joseph Tegbe, has tasked the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) to measure the success of the new tax laws by higher voluntary compliance rates, lower administrative costs, fewer disputes, faster resolution cycles, and stronger taxpayer confidence.
Speaking at the 2026 Leadership Retreat of the agency, Mr Tegbe said, “Sustainable revenue performance is built on trust and efficiency, not enforcement intensity,” emphasising that the legitimacy and predictability of the system are more critical than punitive measures.
He underscored that the country’s tax reform journey is at a critical juncture where effective implementation will determine long-term fiscal outcomes.
The NTPIC chief stressed that tax policy must serve as an enabler of governance, and should embody simplicity, equity, predictability, and administrability at scale.
These principles, he explained, foster voluntary compliance, reduce operational friction, and strengthen investor confidence. He warned that ad-hoc adjustments or policy drift could undermine reform momentum, unsettle businesses, and deter investment, which thrives on predictable rules rather than shifting announcements. Structured sequencing, clear transition mechanisms, and continuous feedback between policymakers and administrators are therefore critical to sustaining reform credibility.
Mr Tegbe further argued that revenue reform cannot succeed in isolation. Achieving sustainable gains requires a whole-of-government approach, leveraging robust taxpayer identification systems, integrated financial data, efficient dispute resolution, and harmonised coordination across federal and sub-national levels. This approach, he said, reduces leakages, eliminates multiple taxation, and reinforces confidence in the system.
He noted that the passage of four new tax laws marks only the beginning of a broader reform agenda, describing the initiative as a systemic recalibration of Nigeria’s fiscal architecture, rather than a routine policy update.
He further asserted that the true measure of success will be the credibility of implementation, not the design of the laws themselves.
The NRS, he noted, functions as the nation’s “Revenue System Integrator,” with outcomes reflecting the strength of an interconnected ecosystem that encompasses policy clarity, enforcement consistency, digital infrastructure, dispute resolution efficiency, and intergovernmental coordination.
Economy
NUPENG Seeks Clarity on New Oil, Gas Executive Order
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Union of Natural and Gas Workers (NUPENG) has expressed deep concern over the Executive Order by President Bola Tinubu mandating the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to remit directly to the federation account.
In a statement signed by its president, Mr William Akporeha, over the weekend in Lagos, the union noted that the absence of detailed public engagement had naturally generated tension within the sector and heightened restiveness among workers, who are anxious to know how the new directive may affect their employment, welfare and job security, especially as it affects NNPC and other major operations in the oil and gas sector.
It pointed out that the industry remained the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, contributing significantly to national revenue, foreign exchange earnings, and employment.
The NUPENG president affirmed that any policy shift, particularly one introduced through an Executive Order, has far-reaching consequences for regulatory frameworks, Investment decisions, operational standards, and labour relations within the sector.
According to him, “there is an urgent need for clarity on the scope and objectives of the Executive Order -What precise reforms or adjustments does it introduce? “Its implications for the Petroleum Industry Act -Does the Order amend, interpret, or expand existing provisions under PIA?
“Impact on workers and existing labour agreements-Will it affect job security, conditions of service, Collective Bargaining agreements or ongoing restructuring processes within the industry? “Effects on indigenous participation and local content development -How will it affect Nigerian companies and employment opportunities for citizens?”
He warned that without proper consultation and explanation, misinterpretations of the Executive Order may spread across the industry, potentially destabilising operations and undermining industrial harmony that stakeholders have worked hard to sustain.
“Though our union remains committed to constructive engagement, national development and stability of the oil and gas sector, however, we are duty-bound and constitutionally bound to protect the rights and welfare and job security of our members whose livelihoods depend on a clear, fair and predictable policy framework,” Mr Akporeha further stated.
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