Feature/OPED
Paradox of Profitability: Nigeria’s Banks, Bogus Earnings, and Recapitalisation Dilemma
By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria’s economy has been buffeted by storms in recent years with currency volatility, galloping inflation, surging interest rates, and dwindling consumer purchasing power. Yet, amid these macroeconomic headwinds, corporate organisations, especially banks, continue to post eye-popping profits.
Five of Nigeria’s top 10 banks reported a combined pre-tax profit of N4.6 trillion in 2024, a 70 per cent increase from the previous year with Zenith Bank and Guaranty Trust Holding Company crossing the trillion-naira mark for the first time.
This paradox raises a fundamental question: how are banks thriving on paper in an economy where businesses are shutting down, households are under severe strain, and government debt is ballooning?
As of the first half of 2025, the banking industry finds itself at a crossroads. Barely months after announcing staggering profit results, some in excess of N500 billion amongst commercial banks are now scrambling to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recapitalisation directive. Many are racing back-to-back to the capital market to raise fresh funds.
Behind the strong showing of the market leaders lies a deeper concern: a number of smaller commercial banks and regional players are still struggling to formulate credible recapitalization strategies.
Adding to the puzzle is the CBN’s decision to bar lenders from paying dividends and bonuses, insisting that earnings must be preserved to strengthen capital buffers.
For the average Nigerian, the contradiction is glaring: how can banks boast of record profits yet struggle to raise capital to meet regulatory requirements?
Analysts argue that much of these “profits” are not the outcome of robust productivity or genuine market expansion but rather accounting gains from naira devaluation, speculative positions, high interest rate spreads, loopholes in financial reporting, and arbitrary charges.
Profits on Paper, Weak Capital in Reality
Nigerian banks are witnessing a slowdown in profit growth in 2025 as the extraordinary windfalls from naira devaluation and high interest rates taper off.
Data from the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) show that the combined after-tax profit of nine major lenders, including Zenith, GTCO, Access, UBA, Fidelity, Wema, Stanbic IBTC, FCMB, and FBN Holdco rose marginally by 0.74 per cent to N1.35 trillion in Q1 2025, compared to the record 274.3 per cent surge posted a year earlier.
Much of the earlier profit boom was driven by the floating of the naira in mid-2023 and subsequent devaluations, which allowed banks to book huge foreign exchange revaluation gains simply by holding dollar assets. However, analysts warn these paper gains were non-cash items that added little to banks’ real capital strength.
The apex bank has since barred lenders from deploying such gains for dividends or operating expenses, insisting they be held as buffers against future currency shocks.
With foreign exchange gains now normalising and credit expansion still sluggish, analysts say banks’ reliance on one-off windfalls has exposed underlying weaknesses in core operations such as lending, deposit mobilisation, and fee income.
“The era of abnormal profit growth is over,” said Tony Brown, a banking analyst in Abuja. “The numbers looked strong on paper, but the real test will be how banks sustain earnings through traditional banking activities.”
“The so-called profits are accounting gymnastics,” a Lagos-based analyst said. “They look good in shareholder reports but add little to the core equity needed for recapitalization.”
Banks Profit as Rate Hikes Widen Interest Spreads, squeeze Borrower
Nigerian banks are cashing in on wide interest rate spreads, boosted by the CBN’s tight monetary stance, which has kept the policy rate at 27.5 per cent into 2025. While lending rates have soared into double digits, deposit rates remain low, leaving savers shortchanged and borrowers under pressure.
Analysts say this asymmetric response allows banks to preserve profitability at customers’ expense. “Simply buying government Treasury bills with customers’ deposits was enough for banks to return profit with yields reaching 25 per cent,” said Abuja-based analyst, Chike Osigwe. “On top of that, they charge high lending rates while paying much less to depositors.”
Professor Uche Uwaleke, President of the Capital Market Academics of Nigeria (CMAN), noted that Tier-1 banks are declaring huge profits despite weak economic growth. He warned of a growing disconnect between banks’ fortunes and struggling sectors like manufacturing and agriculture, stressing the need to ensure customers and the real economy share in banking gains.
Mirage of profits powered by Arbitrary Charges
Nigerian banks’ record profits in 2024 have been linked not only to monetary policy tailwinds but also to a surge in arbitrary charges imposed on customers. Despite CBN’s repeated sanctions for breaching its Guide to Charges, lenders continue to rack up billions from fees on transfers, withdrawals, ATM use, account maintenance, SMS alerts, and other deductions.
With over 312 million active bank accounts, these charges now contribute more to profitability than traditional lending or FX operations. Five tier-1 banks alone posted N4.6 trillion in pre-tax profit in 2024, a 69.5 per cent jump from the previous year.
“Banks have turned customers into easy prey,” said financial reform advocate Dr Bruno Agbakoba. Consumer advocate Mrs Toun Adeniran added that households and SMEs are being “drained by unexplained deductions.” A former CBN official admitted enforcement is “a challenge” despite sanctions. In the words of one customer, Nigeria’s banking system has become “a pain in the neck” profitable for lenders, but punishing for households and enterprises struggling to survive in a hostile economic environment.
Critics also warn that this reliance on “blood profits” discourages innovation and credit expansion, further widening the gap between banks’ fortunes and the struggles of businesses and households. Michael Owhoko, a Public Policy Analyst, warned that instead of boosting their image, the massive profits of Nigerian banks are fueling negative public perception, as many views their practices as harmful to individuals and especially small and medium businesses.
Why Banks Are Quietly Rationing Liquidity
Towards month ends, Nigerians are been frustrated by stalled online transfers, frozen mobile apps, and endless queues at ATMs and banking halls. While banks blame “network issues,” analysts say the real problem runs deeper.
With naira devaluation, inflation, and the CBN’s tight monetary stance squeezing liquidity, banks are quietly restricting access to cash to stabilise their books. “When banks throttle withdrawals or delay digital transactions, it is often a survival tactic,” a Lagos-based analyst explained, noting that recapitalization pressures have worsened the strain.
The CBN’s new recapitalisation directive has raised minimum capital thresholds for banks, forcing many institutions to restructure their balance sheets. With dividend payouts curtailed and fresh capital requirements looming, banks are under immense pressure to conserve every naira they can. Restricting customer access through “network downtimes” has quietly become one of the industry’s unspoken strategies.
Banks Race to Meet New Capital Thresholds
With inflation and naira depreciation eroding the old capital base, the CBN has raised minimum capital requirements: N500 billion for international banks, N200 billion for national banks, N50 billion for regional and merchant banks, and N20 billion and N10 billion for national and regional non-interest lenders, respectively. All banks must comply by April 2026.
So far, nine (9) banks: including Access Holdings, Zenith Bank, Stanbic IBTC, Wema Bank, Lotus Bank, Jaiz Bank, Providus Bank, Greenwich Merchant Bank and GTBank have met the target. FirstBank’s oversubscribed rights issue brought in N187.6 billion, with a N350 billion private placement underway. GTBank recently surpassed the benchmark after a N365.85 billion rights issue, raising its capital to N504 billion.
Mid-tier lenders such as FCMB and Fidelity Bank are still raising funds, though analysts expect them to succeed given strong investor appetite. Fitch Ratings noted that most banks are likely to meet the new thresholds ahead of deadline.
While the policy aims to fortify Nigeria’s banking system against shocks, it has exposed the contradiction between glossy profit declarations and actual capital adequacy. If profits were as robust as reported, banks would not be racing to the capital market or wooing investors for fresh injections.
Dividend and Bonus Restrictions
To compound matters, the CBN recently restricted dividend payouts and executive bonuses. This move, while unpopular among shareholders, underscores the regulator’s concern that banks are not retaining enough earnings to build capital buffers.
This temporary suspension, according to the CBN, is part of a broader strategy to reinforce capital buffers, improve balance sheet resilience, and ensure prudent capital retention within the banking sector.
Meanwhile, Nigerian banks paid a record N951 billion in dividends to shareholders in 2024, representing an 87 per cent increase from the previous year.
For investors, it has been a rude awakening. Shareholders were promised juicy returns based on the record profits, but now the CBN is saying those same banks can’t afford to pay dividends. Something doesn’t add up.
Shadows of Creative Accounting in Banking Sector
Allegations of creative accounting continue to dog Nigeria’s banking sector, with analysts warning that dazzling profit numbers may not always reflect underlying reality. While not all institutions engage in such practices, the structural weaknesses of the financial system create room for manipulation.
“The financial sector regularly distorts earnings through creative accounting,” warns Bolatito Bickersteth of research firm Stears. “A significant portion of profit often lies in non-cash items, making true viability difficult to assess.”
One common tactic is the smoothing of earnings through frontloading expenses or deferring liabilities. Provisions for bad loans, for instance, are sometimes delayed, making banks appear healthier than they are. Similarly, loan books are often overstated, with risky credits classified as performing or backed by inflated collateral. This practice was central to the 2009 banking crisis that forced the CBN to sack several CEOs. Mercy Okon, Investment Research Specialist at Parthian Securities, emphasizes the systemic impact, “Huge profits seen in banks were due to unrealized FX gains, heightened interest income, and boosted transaction fees, not necessarily loan growth or real sector lending.”
Another area of concern is tax arbitrage, where lenders exploit gaps between tax rules and CBN guidelines to minimize taxable profits. Beyond that, some institutions reportedly use subsidiaries and offshore accounts to mask losses or inflate revenues, creating balance sheets that look stronger than reality.
Experts also fault the country’s weak auditing culture. Many banks rely on local audit firms with close management ties, raising doubts about independence and compliance with global reporting standards. As a result, governance lapses often escape scrutiny until crises erupt.
The big irony, analysts note, is that while Nigerian banks are declaring record profits, they are simultaneously racing to raise fresh capital under the CBN’s recapitalisation directive.
This contradiction, underscores the distortions created by weak oversight and questionable accounting practices.
The Public Illusion of Prosperity
The paradox points to a deeper credibility gap in Nigeria’s corporate financial reporting. To the public, banks appear prosperous, yet in reality, they are thinly capitalized and vulnerable to systemic shocks.
The irony is not lost on Nigerians who endure soaring lending rates, endless bank charges, and poor service delivery, only to be told that their banks are both profit-rich and capital-poor at the same time.
Way Forward:
To restore trust in Nigeria’s banking sector, regulators must enforce stricter consumer protection policies and closely monitor arbitrary charges. Agencies like the FCCPC and NGOs should actively safeguard customer interests, while the CBN ensures fair pricing and balance between lending and savings rates.
Some existing policies driving excessive fees need urgent review to avoid discouraging use of banking services and undermining the cashless policy, especially in an underbanked society.
Banks, on their part, must prioritize transparency, empathy, and integrity to rebuild reputation, while tighter financial disclosures, stronger corporate governance, and truly independent audits are essential for sustainable growth.
The recapitalization drive is long overdue, especially given the rising risks from a fragile economy, dollar shortages, and exposure to sovereign debt. However, unless transparency improves in financial reporting, the cycle of bogus profits and weak fundamentals will persist.
The recapitalization process should be paired with reforms in disclosure standards and stricter audit independence to ensure that profit figures reflect genuine financial strength.
Until then, the paradox remains: Nigerian banks that claim to be “rolling in profits” are the same institutions struggling to muster the funds needed to secure their future.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
By Barr. Adefila Kamal
Football in Nigeria has never been just a sport. It is emotion, argument, nationalism, and sometimes heartbreak wrapped into ninety minutes. That passion is a gift, but it often comes with a tendency to shout down progress before it has the chance to grow. In the middle of this noise sits the Nigeria Football Federation under the leadership of Ibrahim Musa Gusau, a man who has chosen steady hands over loud speeches, structure over drama, and long-term rebuilding over chasing instant applause.
When Gusau took office in 2022, he understood one thing clearly: the only way to fix Nigerian football is to repair its foundations. He said it openly during the 2025 NNL monthly awards ceremony — you cannot build an edifice from the rooftop. And true to that conviction, his tenure has taken shape quietly through structural investments that don’t trend on social media but matter where the future of the game is built. The construction of a players’ hostel and modern training pitches at the Moshood Abiola Stadium is one of the clearest signs of this shift. Nigeria has gone decades without basic infrastructure for its national teams, especially youth and age-grade squads. Gusau’s administration broke that pattern by delivering the first dedicated national-team hostel in our history, a project that signals an understanding that success is not luck — it is preparation.
The same thread runs through grassroots football. The maiden edition of the FCT FA Women’s Inter-Area Councils Football Tournament emerged under this administration, giving young female players a structured platform instead of the token attention they usually receive. These initiatives are not flashy. They do not dominate headlines. But they form the bedrock of any footballing nation that wants to be taken seriously.
Gusau’s leadership has also focused on lifting the domestic leagues out of years of decline. The NFF has revamped professional and semi-professional competitions, working to create consistent scheduling, fair officiating, and marketable competition structures. The growing number of global broadcasting partnerships — something unheard of in the old NPFL era — has brought more eyes, more credibility and more opportunities for clubs and players. Monthly awards for players, coaches and referees have introduced a culture of performance and merit, something our domestic game has needed for years. These are reforms that reshape the culture of football far beyond one season.
Internationally, Nigeria regained a powerful seat at the table when Gusau was elected President of the West African Football Union (WAFU B). This is not a ceremonial achievement. In football politics, influence determines opportunities, hosting rights, development grants, international appointments and the respect with which nations are treated. For too long, Nigeria’s voice in the region was inconsistent. Gusau’s emergence changes that, and it places Nigeria in a position where its administrative competence cannot be dismissed.
His administration has also made it clear that women’s football, youth development and academy systems are no longer side projects. There is a renewed intention to repair the broken pathways that once produced global stars with almost predictable frequency. If Nigeria is going to remain a powerhouse, development must become a machine, not an afterthought.
Still, for many observers, none of this seems to matter because the yardstick is always a single match, a single tournament or a single disappointing moment. Public criticism often grows louder than the facts. Fans want instant results, and when they don’t come, the instinct is to blame whoever is in office at the moment. But this approach has repeatedly sabotaged Nigerian football. Constant leadership changes wipe out institutional memory and scatter reform efforts before they mature. No nation becomes great by resetting its football house every time tempers flare.
Gusau’s leadership is unfolding at a time when FIFA and CAF are tightening their expectations for professionalism, financial transparency and infrastructure. Nigeria cannot afford scandals, disarray or combative politics. We need the kind of administrative consistency that global football bodies can trust — and this is exactly the lane Gusau has chosen. He has not been perfect; no administrator is. But he has been consistent, measured and focused. In an ecosystem that often rewards noise, this is rare.
For progress to hold, Nigeria must shift from the culture of outrage to a culture of constructive contribution. The media, civil society, ex-players, club owners, fan groups — everyone has a role. The truth is that Nigerian football’s biggest enemy has never been the NFF president, whoever he might be at the time. The real enemies are impatience, instability and emotional decision-making. They derail strategy. They kill reforms. They weaken institutions. And they turn football — our greatest cultural asset — into a battlefield of blame.
Gusau’s effort to reposition the NFF is a reminder that real development is rarely glamorous. It is slow, disciplined and often misunderstood. But it is the only route that leads to the future we claim to want: a football system built on structure, modern governance, infrastructure, youth development and global influence. Nigeria will flourish when we start protecting our institutions instead of tearing them down after every misstep.
If we truly want Nigerian football to rise, we must recognise genuine work when we see it. We must support continuity when it is clearly producing a roadmap. And we must resist the temptation to substitute outrage for analysis. Ibrahim Musa Gusau’s tenure is not defined by noise. It is defined by groundwork — the kind that elevates nations long after the shouting stops.
Barr. Adefila Kamal is a legal practitioner and development specialist. He serves as the National President of the Civil Society Network for Good Governance (CSNGG), with a long-standing commitment to transparency, institutional reform and sports governance in Nigeria
By Taiwo Olatunji, CFA
Nigeria’s infrastructure ambition is not constrained by vision, but by the financing architecture. The public sector balance sheet, which has been the primary source of financing, has become very tight, while financing from the private sector is available and increasing, with a focus on long-term, naira-denominated assets. Hence, the challenge lies in effectively connecting this capital to bankable projects at scale and with discipline. Project bonds, created, structured and distributed by investment banks, are the instruments required to bridge the country’s infrastructure needs.
The scale of the need is clear. Nigeria’s Revised NIIMP (2020–2043) estimates ~US$2.3 trillion, about US$100bn, a year is required annually for the next 30 years to lift infrastructure to 70% of GDP. Africa’s pensions, insurers and sovereign funds already hold over US$1.1 trillion that can be mobilised for this purpose, but they require new and innovative approaches to enhance their participation in addressing this challenge.
What is broken with the status quo?
Nigeria continues to finance inherently long-dated assets through the issuance of local currency public bonds, Sukuk and Eurobonds. This approach creates a heavy burden on the government’s balance sheet while sometimes causing refinancing risk and FX exposures, where naira cash flows service dollar liabilities. It has also led to the slow conversion of the pipeline of identified projects because many infrastructure projects have not been prepared, appraised and structured to attract the private sector.
Why project bonds and where they sit in the stack
Project bonds are debt securities issued by project SPVs and serviced from project cash flows, typically secured by concessions, offtake agreements, or availability payments. Unlike typical bonds (corporate or government), which are backed by the sponsor’s balance sheets, project bonds are backed by the cash flow generated by the financed project. They often have longer duration, are tradeable, aligned with the long operating life of infrastructure projects and best suited for pension and insurance investors.
Globally, this type of instrument has been used to finance major projects such as toll roads, power plants, and social infrastructure. For example, in Latin America, transportation and energy projects have been financed through project bonds from local and international investors, through the 144A market, a U.S. framework that allows companies to access large institutional investors without going through a full public offering. Similarly, in India, rupee-denominated project bonds have benefited from partial credit guarantees provided by institutions like Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, which help lower investment risk and attract more investors.
In practice, project bonds can be structured in two ways: (i) as a take-out instrument, refinancing bank or DFI construction loans once an asset has reached operational stability; or (ii) as a bond issued from day one for brownfield or late-stage greenfield projects where revenue visibility is high, often supported by credit enhancements such as guarantees.
In both cases, the instrument achieves the same outcome: aligning long-term, project cash flows with the long-term liabilities of domestic institutional investors.
The enabling ecosystem is already emerging
1. Nigeria is not starting from zero. Regulatory infrastructure is already in place. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued detailed rules governing Project Bonds and Infrastructure Funds, creating standardized issuance structures aligned with global best practice and familiar to institutional investors. The SEC is also mulling the inclusion of the proposed rules on Credit Enhancement Service Providers in the existing rules of the Commission.
2. Market benchmarks are already available. The sovereign yield curve, published by the Debt Management Office (DMO) through its regular monthly auctions, provides a transparent reference point for pricing. This curve serves as the base risk-free rate, against which project bond spreads can be calibrated to reflect construction, operating, and sector-specific risks.
3. The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has revised its Regulation on the investment of Pension Fund Assets, increasing the amount of the country’s N25.9 trillion pension assets to be allocated to infrastructure.
4. InfraCredit has established a robust local-currency guarantee framework, supporting an aggregate guaranteed portfolio of approximately ₦270 billion. The portfolio carries a weighted average tenor of ~8 years, with demonstrated capacity to extend maturities up to 20 years. (InfraCredit 2025)
Why merchant banks should lead
Merchant banks sit at the nexus of origination, structuring, underwriting, and distribution, and they need to work with projects sponsors, financiers and government to develop a pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects. A pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects is important to attract investors as they prefer to invest in an economy with a recognizable pipeline. A pipeline also suggests that a structured and well-thought-out approach was adopted, and the projects would have identified all the major risks and the proposed mitigants to address the identified risks.
This “banks-as-catalysts” model, an economic framework that states banks can play an active and creative role in promoting industrialization and economic development, particularly in emerging markets, can be adopted to structure and mobilise domestic private finance into Infrastructure projects.
Coronation Merchant Bank’s role and vision
At Coronation, we believe the identification, structuring and testing of bankable infrastructure projects are the constraints to mobilization of private capital into the infrastructure space. We bring an integrated platform across Financial Advisory, Capital Mobilization, Commercial Debt, Private Debt and Alternative Financing to identify, structure, underwrite and distribute infrastructure debt into domestic institutions. The Bank works with DFIs, guarantee providers and other banks to scale issuance. Our franchise has supported infrastructure debt issuances via the capital markets, likewise Nigerian corporates and the Government.
From Insight to Execution
If you are considering the issuance of a project bond or you want to discuss pipeline readiness, kindly contact [email protected] or call 020-01279760.
Taiwo Olatunji, CFA is the Group Head of Investment Banking at Coronation Merchant Bank
By Blaise Udunze
At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, recently stated that Nigeria had “turned a decisive corner,” his remark aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and food inflation retreating to 13.12 percent, the exchange rate was stabilizing, and foreign reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. However, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting economic situation challenges households, businesses, and investors daily.
Stability is not announced; it is felt. For millions of Nigerians, however, what they are facing instead are increasing difficulties, declining abilities, diminished buying power, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a steady macroeconomic path.
The 303rd MPC gathering was the most significant in recent times, revealing policies and statements that prompt more questions than clarifications. It highlighted an economy striving to appear stable, in theory, while the actual sector struggles to breathe.
This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is based on a delicate and partial foundation, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining economic robustness.
Manufacturing: The Core of Genuine Stability Remains Struggling to Survive
A strong economy is characterized by growth in production, increased investment, and competitive industries. Nigeria lacks all of these elements.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s choice to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 percent. MAN stated that elevated interest rates are now” hindering production, deterring investment, and weakening competitiveness.
Producers are presently taking loans at rates between 30-37 percent, an environment that renders growth unfeasible and survival challenging. MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasized that although stable exchange rates matter, no genuine industry can endure borrowing expenses to those charged by loan sharks.
The CBN’s choice to maintain elevated interest rates is based on drawing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to support the naira’s stability. However, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They do not signify long-term stability. Do they represent genuine economic development?
Genuine stability demands assurance, in manufacturing beyond financial tightening. Manufacturers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.
Oil Output and Revenue: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring
Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the backbone of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 budget presumed:
- $75 per barrel oil price
- 2.06 million barrels per day production
Both objectives have fallen apart. Brent crude lingers near $62.56 under the benchmark. Contrary to the usual explanations, experts attribute the decline not mainly to external shocks but to poor reservoir management, outdated models, weak oversight, and delayed technical decisions.
Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded expert in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing production losses due to inadequate well monitoring, obsolete reservoir models, and technical choices lacking fundamental engineering precision. These shortcomings result directly in decreased revenue. By September 2025:
– Nigeria had accumulated N62.15 trillion from oil revenue
– instead of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.
– In September, the Federal Inland Revenue Service reported a startling 49.60 percent deficit in revenue from oil taxes.
A nation falling short of its main revenue goals by 50 percent cannot assert stability. Instead, it will take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.
A Stability Built on Debt, Not Productivity
Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Bank’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the total public debt amounts to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 percent rise since 2023.
From July to October 2025, the government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. Nevertheless, in spite of these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing remains limited, and social welfare is still insufficient.
Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to growth.” Currently, the government spends one out of every four naira it earns on servicing debts. Taking on debt is not harmful in itself, provided it finances projects that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it supports subsistence. A country funding today, through the labour of the future, cannot assert restored stability.
The Naira: A Currency Supported by Fragile Pillars
The CBN contends that elevated interest rates and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. However, this steadiness is based on grounds that cannot endure even the slightest global disturbance. The pillars of a stable currency are:
– Rising domestic production
– Expanding exports
– Reliable energy supply
– Strong security
– A thriving manufacturing base
None of these is Nigeria’s current reality. What Nigeria actually receives is capital from portfolio investors, and past events (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how rapidly these funds disappear.
Unemployment: “Stable” Figures Mask a Rising Youth Crisis
The CBN touts a reported unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. However, the International Labour Organisation (ILO), along with economists, cautions that the approach conceals more serious issues in the labour market.
Youth joblessness has increased to 6.5 percent, and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautions that Nigeria needs to generate 27 million formal employment opportunities by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour crisis. The employment crisis is a ticking time bomb. A country cannot maintain stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.
FDI Continues to Lag Despite CBN’s Positive Outlook
During the 2025 Nigerian Economic Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf stated that Nigeria’s efforts to attract direct investment (FDI) continue to be sluggish despite the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely reflects investor trust, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing plants, employment, and generating value. Nigeria does not have any of this as of now. An economy unable to draw long-term investments lacks stability.
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?
The recent development report from the World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, and more than half of the population faces daily struggles. This is not stability. It is a humanitarian and economic crisis.
Food inflation continues to stay structurally high. The cost of a food basket has risen five times since 2019. Low-income families currently allocate much, as 70 percent of their earnings to food. A government cannot claim stability when its citizens go hungry.
A Fragile, Failing Power Sector
The power sector, another cornerstone of economic stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, which is one of the highest figures globally. Even homes linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electricity daily. Companies allocate funds to generators rather than to technology, innovation, or growth. Nigeria has now emerged as the biggest importer of solar panels in Africa, not due to environmental goals but because the national power grid is unreliable.
A country cannot achieve stability if it is unable to supply electricity to its residences, industrial plants, or medical centers.
Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Economic Policy
Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant attacks persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and investment. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion each year due to insecurity and resources that might have fueled industrial development.
Food price increases are mainly caused by instability, and farmers are unable to cultivate, gather, or deliver their products. Nevertheless, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as an issue of policy. In a country where insecurity fundamentally hinders the economy tightening policy cannot ensure stability.
Inflation Figures Under Suspicion
Questions have also emerged regarding the reliability of inflation data. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN might not entirely rely on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting increasing apprehension. A sharp decrease to 16 percent inflation clashes with market conditions.
Families are facing the food costs in two decades. Costs, for transport, housing rent, education fees, and necessary items keep increasing. Food prices cannot decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for safety. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the stability story based on them becomes deceptive. There is, quite frankly, a significant disconnect between governance and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians.
Foreign Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Reality
Even Nigeria’s celebrated foreign reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. However, a closer examination shows:
– Net usable reserves are only $23.11 billion
– The remainder is connected to commitments, swaps, and debts
Gross reserves make the news. Net reserves protect the currency. The difference is too large to assert that the naira is stable.
Nigeria’s Economic Contradiction: Stability at the Top, Volatility at the Bottom
In reality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the actual experiences of Nigerians highlights a reality:
– Macroeconomic changes have failed to convert into improvements in human well-being.
– Nigeria might appear stable officially. Its citizens are experiencing instability in truth.
– Taking on debt is increasing
– Poverty is worsening
– Manufacturing is contracting
– Jobs are scarce
– Authority is breaking down
– Feelings of insecurity are growing stronger
– Inflation is undermining dignity
– Companies are struggling to breathe
– Capital is escaping
– Misery, among humans, is expanding
A strong economy is one where advancement is experienced, not announced.
What Genuine Stability Demands
To move from paper stability to real stability, Nigeria must:
- Support domestic production. Cut interest rates for manufacturers, reduce borrowing costs, and provide targeted credit.
- Fix oil production technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate resources to adequate technical oversight.
- Prioritize security. Secure farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.
- Reform the power sector. Invest in grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.
- Attract real FDI. Streamline rules, enhance the framework, and maintain consistent policy guidance.
- Anchor debt on productive projects. Take loans exclusively for infrastructure projects that produce income.
- Prioritize reforms in welfare. Adopt crisis-responsive, domestically funded safety nets.
- Improve transparency. Ensure inflation, employment, and reserve data reflect reality.
Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved
The CBN Governor’s statement of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It remains unproven. The inconsistencies are glaring, the statistics too. The real-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not through statements on policy but by whether:
– Manufacturing plants are creating (factories operate at full capacity),
– Food is affordable,
– Young people have jobs
– The naira is strong without artificial props,
– Electricity is reliable,
– Security is assured,
– Poverty rates are decreasing.
Unless these conditions are met, Nigeria is not experiencing a period of restored stability. Instead, it is going through a phase of recovery, one that will collapse if the actual economy keeps worsening while decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN must rethink its approach. Nigeria needs productive stability, not statistical stability.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
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