Economy
CBN April PMI Shows Improvement in Business Conditions

By Cordros Capital Research
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for the month of April, manufacturing activities, during the month, expanded after three consecutive months of contraction. The report also shows that the non-manufacturing sector came within a whisker of exiting its 16-month streak of decline.
Specifically, the manufacturing PMI grew to 51.1, from 47.7, while the non-manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5 (vs. 47.1 in March).
Indeed, the notable improvement in April’s PMI came to us as no surprise, as it validated our expectation for the month. Suffice to say that business owners and manufacturers are positively responding to a number of encouraging developments in the broader macroeconomic space.
Here, we highlight (1) the CBN’s recent and sustained commitment to forex stability, particularly narrowing the spread between the official and parallel segments of the currency market rates, (2) government effort at improving the ease of doing business in Nigeria, as the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) rolled out fresh reforms to consolidate and deepen the impact of its previous plan, (3) the recent approval, by the FGN, of the reduction of documentation requirements and timeline for import and export trade transactions to 48 hours (4) the launch of the nation’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), (5) the soon-to-bepassed 2017 appropriation bill, which will herald the establishment of Satellite Industrial Centres (SICs) across the six geo-political zones of the country, (6) an extension of the tenure of the 2016 budget’s capital spending projects until 5th May, 2017 amid a total sum of N1 trillion released from the same budget, thus far, for capex, and (7) a reported rebound in Nigeria’s business confidence, according to the latest edition of the Global Economic Conditions Survey.
Manufacturing PMI Bucks Declining Trend
The manufacturing PMI commenced the second quarter of the year on an impressive note, bucking its 3-month contraction trajectory, expanding by 3.4 percentage points, from 47.7 in March, to 51.1 in April. The notable improvement was supported by considerable expansions in production level (58.5, previously 50.8), new orders (50.1, previously 45.6), and inventories (50.6, previously 49.1), which we believe was in response to the relative stability – amid the apex bank’s renewed commitment to improve FX liquidity – of the NGN exchange rate (particularly at the parallel market) during the period under review. Clearly, this, in addition to improved power generation (close to 5,000MW), further strengthened manufacturers’ confidence, supported by the slower pace of contraction in employment level (46.6 vs. 43.6) during the month.
Ten of the sixteen sub-sectors reported growth in the review month, in the following order: appliances & components; food, beverage & tobacco products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; chemical & pharmaceutical products; cement; nonmetallic mineral products; printing & related support activities; furniture & related products; electrical equipment and plastics & rubber products. The paper products; primary metal; computer & electronic products; fabricated metal products; petroleum & coal products, and transportation equipment sub sectors reported decline in the review period.
Non-Manufacturing PMI Misses Expansion by a Whisker
The non-manufacturing PMI showed further signs of improvement, with the index, at 49.5, marginally shy of the 50 point expansion threshold. This marks the highest point of the index in its 16-month contraction spree.
Primarily, in April, the non-manufacturing PMI benefitted from the growth of 3.5 percentage points and 4.1 percentage points in business activity (53.3, from 49.8) and new orders (50.5, from 46.4). Also, the slower rate of contraction in employment level (45.5, previously 44.0) and inventories (48.6, previously 48.0) was positive for the overall nonmanufacturing index.
Of the eighteen non-manufacturing sub-sectors, eight recorded declines in the following order: management of companies; construction; professional, scientific & technical services; arts, entertainment & recreation; wholesale trade; health care & social assistance; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles and accommodation & food services.
The remaining ten sub-sectors: agriculture; utilities; educational services; transportation & warehousing; finance & insurance; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; real estate, rental & leasing; information & communication; public administration and water supply, sewage & waste management reported growth in the review month.
Comment:
Clearly, April 2017 PMI figures speak to the fact that, manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities improved over the one month period. We look for the level of improvement achieved thus far being consolidated, going forward, as the impact of the positive drivers supporting the encouraging figures deepens. We highlight the (1) CBN’s sustained commitment to forex stability, (2) possibility of the 2017 appropriation bill being passed early this month, following which the establishment of the FGN Satellite Industrial Centres (SICs) across the six geo-political zones of the country will commence, (3) potential gains from the recently launched Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), (4) full implementation of the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) fresh plans on the ease of doing business, and (5) sustained improvement in power generation, on the back of cessation of hostilities by militants in the Niger Delta, and the rise in water level at the various dams in the country.
Economy
Four Securities Erase N51.17bn from NASD Exchange
By Adedapo Adesanya
Four securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.95 per cent on Friday, erasing N41.17 billion from the bourse, which had its market capitalisation at N2.567 trillion compared with the previous session’s N2.618 trillion.
In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) decreased at the close of business by 85.28 points to 4,277.07 points from 4,362.32 points.
The price decliners were led by 11 Plc, which gave up N20.50 to sell at N200.50 per share compared with the preceding day’s N221.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped N16.94 to close at N155.20 per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of N172.14 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by N2.11 to N84.68 per share from N86.79 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc lost 11 Kobo to end at N16.74 per unit, in contrast to the N16.85 per unit it closed a day earlier.
During the trading day, the value of transactions jumped by 172.1 per cent to N29.9 million from the preceding session’s N10.9 million, and the volume of trades soared by 136.5 per cent to 955,096 units from the previous 403,901 units, while the number of deals went down by 11.4 per cent to 31 deals from 35 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.6 million units sold for N4.7 billion.
GNI Plc also ended the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units exchanged for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
Economy
Cautious Trading, Profit-taking Weaken Nigeria’s Stock Exchange by 0.66%
By Dipo Olowookere
The last trading session of this week on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended on a negative note, with a 0.66 per cent loss on Friday.
This was influenced by sustained selling pressure and cautious trading, which forced investors into profit-taking.
Data obtained by Business Post showed that the energy sector fell by 4.66 per cent, the insurance counter dipped by 2.23 per cent, the consumer goods index depreciated by 0.96 per cent, and the banking segment shed 0.28 per cent, while the industrial goods space remained unchanged.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) of Nigeria’s stock exchange went down by 1,531.81 points to 232,049.02 points from 233,580.83 points, and the market capitalisation dropped N983 billion to settle at N148.905 trillion compared with Thursday’s N149.888 trillion.
Aradel was the worst-performing equity after it lost 10.00 per cent to close at N1,417.50. International Energy Insurance slipped by 9.95 per cent to N5.79, Trans-Nationwide Express depreciated by 9.89 per cent to N3.28, eTranzact crashed by 9.79 per cent to N14.75, and UPDC slumped by 9.72 per cent to N28.12.
The best-performing equity for the day was Universal Insurance, which gained 6.32 per cent to close at N1.01, McNichols grew by 5.52 per cent to N8.60, Linkage Assurance expanded by 4.67 per cent to N1.57, NGX Group appreciated by 4.35 per cent to N120.00, and Transcorp increased by 3.62 per cent to N41.50.
As look at the activity level indicated that investors traded 388.7 million stocks worth N18.4 billion in 44,631 deals compared with the 393.7 million stocks valued at N19.2 billion executed in 45,813 deals a day earlier, representing a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 1.27 per cent, 4.17 per cent, and 2.58 per cent, respectively.
Economy
Official FX Market Sees Naira Dip to N1,380.93/$1
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira recorded a loss of 82 Kobo or 0.06 per cent against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, June 26, exchanging at N1,380.93/$1, in contrast to the previous day’s rate of N1,380.11/$1.
Equally, the domestic currency further weakened against the Pound Sterling in the official FX market yesterday by N6.06 to settle at N1,824.90/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,818.84/£1, and lost N10.74 on the Euro to sell at N1,577 .58/€1 versus N1,566.84/€1.
At the GTBank forex counter, the Naira depreciated against the greenback during the session by N4 to close at N1,387/$1, in contrast to Thursday’s value of N1,383/$1, and at the parallel market, it was unchanged at N1,395/$1.
Interbank FX activity among financial institutions has fluctuated amid a sharp slowdown in forex market interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), as it allows demand and supply to move the market.
Also, a stronger greenback has generally put significant pressure on emerging-market currencies.
Nigeria has accessed the first tranche of a proposed $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC, the largest lender in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The $5 billion facility, approved by the National Assembly earlier this year, is part of the federal government’s plan to diversify external financing sources and reduce borrowing costs. Structured as a Total Return Swap with First Abu Dhabi Bank, proceeds are earmarked for refinancing debt and supporting infrastructure financing.
If the proceeds are brought into the country through the official FX market, the transaction will increase the currency reserves or Dollar liquidity.
At the cryptocurrency market, Solana (SOL) grew by 2.2 per cent to $71.92, Cardano (ADA) gained 1.1 per cent to trade at $0.1474, Ripple (XRP) also appreciated by 1.1 per cent to $1.05, Dogecoin (DOGE) expanded by 0.9 per cent to $0.0755, and Ethereum (ETH) improved by 0.4 per cent to $1,578.84.
On the flip side, TRON (TRX) slid 0.6 per cent to $0.3203, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 0.3 per cent to $564.33, and Bitcoin fell by 0.2 per cent to $60,219.37, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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