By David Okon

Nigeria’s economic story in 2025 has not been defined by a single reform or headline moment. It has been shaped by sequencing, a deliberate effort to stabilise the macroeconomy, restore institutional credibility and align security, fiscal, and market policy towards growth. At the centre of that sequencing has been the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, whose framing of security, capital mobilisation, and reform discipline has increasingly influenced how investors perceive Nigeria.

The year began with the government focused on repairing the analytical foundations of economic planning. In early 2025, Nigeria completed a long-awaited rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product to a 2019 base year, a technical exercise led by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) that expanded the measured contribution of services, ICT, and the informal economy. According to the NBS, the rebasing placed nominal GDP at about ₦372.8 trillion, equivalent to roughly $240–250 billion, giving policymakers and investors a clearer picture of economic structure and scale.

That reset mattered. It framed the fiscal choices that followed, including tighter expenditure controls, tax administration reforms, and coordination with monetary authorities to slow inflation and stabilise the foreign-exchange market. By the fourth quarter of 2025, inflation which had exceeded 24 percent earlier in the year, began a steady descent, reaching about 14.45 percent by November 2025. Foreign reserves strengthened toward $47 billion, reinforcing external buffers and signalling improved balance-of-payments management, trends noted by multilateral institutions including the World Bank and Afreximbank in their 2025 outlooks for Nigeria.

By mid-year, the reform narrative shifted from stabilisation to confidence, and nowhere was that clearer than in Nigeria’s capital markets. The Nigerian Exchange closed 2025 as one of Africa’s strongest-performing bourses, with the All-Share Index up about 49 per cent year-to-date by late December. Total market capitalisation across equities, debt, and ETFs rose to nearly ₦150 trillion, driven by strong earnings, bank recapitalisation, and new listings, according to the NGX Group chairman, Umaru Kwairanga.

Banking reform was pivotal. As part of recapitalisation efforts aimed at strengthening credit transmission and financial stability, Nigerian banks raised an estimated ₦2.5 trillion in fresh capital by December 2025 through rights issues, private placements, and public offers, according to NGX filings and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approvals. The capital raising reinforced balance sheets and helped drive the market rally, underscoring the link between prudential reform and investor confidence.

Debt markets told a similar story. Between April and October 2025, companies raised over ₦753 billion through commercial paper issuances to finance short-term working capital needs across manufacturing, energy, and agriculture. “These figures are not just numbers; they represent confidence in our regulatory framework and the resilience of our market architecture,” said Emomotimi Agama, Director-General of the SEC, in a public briefing on capital-raising approvals. Landmark transactions, including a ₦500 billion climate-linked SPV and a ₦200 billion Elektron Finance bond, pointed to growing appetite for infrastructure and sustainable finance.

Corporate earnings reinforced the macro signal. MTN Nigeria Communications Plc, one of the Exchange’s largest listed companies, delivered one of the year’s most striking turnarounds. By the first nine months of 2025, the telecoms giant reported revenues of ₦3.73 trillion, up 57 per cent year-on-year, and profit after tax of about ₦750 billion, reversing prior losses. Capital expenditure exceeded ₦565 billion in the first half of the year alone, underscoring confidence in Nigeria’s digital future and the policy direction of the telecoms sector. Other blue-chip firms, including Dangote Cement, posted strong earnings with profit after tax exceeding ₦520 billion, reinforcing the sense that reform was translating into corporate resilience rather than contraction.

Amid these developments, Nigeria’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector also began to reflect the macroeconomic stabilisation delivered by policy reforms. After several years of losses driven by foreign-exchange volatility and inflationary pressures, major FMCG firms recorded a notable rebound in 2025 as currency conditions improved. The sector posted 54.1 per cent value growth in 2025, up from 34.3 per cent in 2024, according to a report by global data and analytics firm NielsenIQ.

Nigerian consumers continued to underpin demand, lifting the FMCG market to an estimated value of $25 billion, the second largest in Africa after South Africa’s $27.5 billion market. Across the continent, the five largest FMCG markets; South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco and Kenya, together account for about $42 billion in total value.

Nigeria’s growth rate outpaced its peers. Egypt expanded by 23.1 per cent to $10.2 billion, Morocco grew 7.6 per cent to $7.5 billion, and Kenya increased 5.5 per cent to $3.3 billion, highlighting Nigeria’s outsized contribution to regional momentum.

At the company level, Nestlé Nigeria Plc returned to profitability, posting a ₦88.4 billion pre-tax profit in the first half of 2025, compared with a ₦252.5 billion loss in the same period a year earlier. The turnaround was supported by a 43 per cent increase in revenue to ₦581.1 billion and more stable cost structures.

Broader market data reflected the recovery. FMCG stocks delivered strong performances on the Nigerian Exchange, with the consumer goods index posting solid gains and several stocks recording returns of more than 100 per cent over the year as investor confidence returned to the sector.

“Nigeria’s FMCG story is one of grit and innovation,” said Dr Tayo Ajayi, a Lagos-based consumer market analyst. “Even when the economy is under pressure, Nigerians adjust their spending habits rather than stop spending. That adaptability is what keeps the sector alive.”

Energy and industrial policy formed the next layer of the reform arc. The Dangote Refinery, already operating at 650,000 barrels per day, confirmed plans to expand capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, a move analysts say could significantly reduce fuel imports, ease pressure on foreign exchange, and strengthen Nigeria’s trade balance. The refinery has become emblematic of the government’s push to support large-scale local production as a substitute for imports and a magnet for global capital.

At the national level, NNPC Ltd continued its post-commercialisation reset. Group Chief Executive Bayo Ojulari said recent operational improvements reflected structural reforms within the company, noting that oil production rose from about 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to over 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025. He also highlighted the strategic importance of the 614-kilometre Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) gas pipeline, designed to transport 2.2 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day, in unlocking industrial growth in northern Nigeria. Ojulari said the company’s focus for 2026 would be attracting new investments, lifting output to at least 1.8 million barrels per day, and supporting President Bola Tinubu’s directive for NNPC to help attract $30 billion in investments by 2030.

Infrastructure and future-facing sectors rounded out the year. Progress continued on the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway, with financing of approximately $1.126 billion secured by the Ministry of Finance and the Economy for Phase 1, Section 2 of the road, a signature project of the Tinubu administration. President Tinubu stated: “This is a major achievement, and closing this transaction means the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway will continue unimpeded. Our administration will continue to explore available funding opportunities to execute critical economic and priority infrastructural projects across the country”.

Port decentralisation plans in southern Nigeria, along with digital-skills programmes under the Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy including the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) initiative led by Minister Bosun Tijani, complemented the infrastructure drive (FMOCDE). The creative economy, encompassing film, music, fashion, and digital content, remained a fast-growing source of jobs and exports, increasingly recognised in policy circles as a serious economic asset.

The year’s most sensitive test of investor confidence came in its final week. On 25 December, US forces conducted targeted airstrikes against Islamic State-linked camps in Sokoto State, in coordination with Nigerian authorities. The government moved quickly to frame the action as part of a broader stability agenda. In a statement released on 28 December, Wale Edun stressed that “security and economic stability are inseparable,” describing the operation as “precise, intelligence-led and focused exclusively on terrorist elements that threaten lives, national stability, and economic activity.” He added that Nigeria “is not at war with itself or any nation, but is confronting terrorism alongside trusted international partners,” a distinction aimed squarely at markets and multilateral partners.

That framing captured the essence of Nigeria’s 2025 reform story. Security was not presented as an isolated military matter, but as an economic input, a prerequisite for investment, production, and growth. As Edun noted, “Every effort to safeguard Nigerians is, by definition, pro-growth and pro-investment,” a message calibrated for investors as markets prepared to reopen.

Nigeria enters 2026 with risks still evident, but with clearer direction. The proposed ₦58.18 trillion federal budget for 2026, anchored on revenue mobilisation, infrastructure spending, and deficit restraint, reflects an effort to consolidate gains rather than reset strategy. For investors, the signal from 2025 is not perfection, but coherence: policy, security, and markets increasingly moving in the same direction.

For an economy long defined by stops and starts, that alignment may prove the most valuable reform of all.

David Okon is a marketing communications and policy consultant at Quadrant MSL, a part of the Publicis Groupe and Troyka+InsightRedefini Group

By Prince Charles Dickson, Ph.D.

We once woke up to a brand-new Toyota Camry in our estate; the type they called Muscle. It belonged to the chairman of our residents’ association, a policeman posted to Bwari Area Council. Everyone knew his salary could not muscle that muscle. From that morning, murmurs replaced greetings. It was not envy; it was arithmetic.

Our transformer was dying. AEDC ignored us with the indifference of only perfect monopolies. We agreed to tax ourselves. N5 million for a replacement in 2017. To “simplify,” we paid directly to the chairman. While contributions trickled in, the chairman’s car announced itself daily; bass turned up, windows down, confidence loud. Two weeks later, when we asked for an update, he said nearly ₦3 million had been forwarded to the seller. Someone called the seller on speaker. He had received nothing.

Chaos followed. Then a young man—barely 21—raised his hand. He asked one question: How did you decide who should keep the community’s money? Why a police officer? We chased him out for rudeness. After all, not all policemen steal. True. But sometimes, a question is less about accusing a profession and more about interrogating a system.

Nigeria in 2025 felt like that meeting. Loud, contradictory, uncomfortable and oddly revealing.

It is 2025. Against a backdrop of insecurity that tried to become our national anthem, some things went right. In the city of Jos, at the University of Jos, the Nigerian Universities Games (NUGA) was hosted with over ninety universities participating. For Nigeria, that alone is news. For Jos, often reduced to headlines of grief, it was a statement. No kidnappings. No mass casualties. No “unfortunate incidents.” Kudos to the Vice-Chancellor and a team that chose competence over theatrics. When institutions work, miracles become boring.

Food prices came down too, almost a first in recent memory. Tomatoes softened. Rice exhaled. Pepper behaved. And yet, purchasing power also dropped. Cheap food, no money. The stalls were full; wallets were empty. We have screamed about food security for years, blaming insecurity for scarcity. In 2025, the food was there. The money was not. Like the young lad’s question, the wisdom was weird: abundance without access; stability without prosperity. A country can fill markets and still starve its people.

Then there was fuel, our December tradition of queues and curses. For once, there were none. Just money and motion. You drove in, paid, drove out. If you are not Nigerian, you will miss the poetry here. Fuel queues are our annual rite, the proof of belonging. This year, the ritual failed to show up. We didn’t protest; we suspected a trick. But December passed, and petrol behaved. A small mercy, perhaps, but in Nigeria small mercies keep marriages intact.

Security incidents; bombs, kidnappings, and banditry did not vanish, but they softened. Not gone; just quieter. I will avoid the politics around the U.S. Christmas hit in Sokoto. Nigeria does not lack analysts; it lacks listeners. Let us say only this: when violence pauses, even briefly, it exposes what peace could look like if we were serious.

Politically, the year tilted toward déjà vu. Like the Olusegun Obasanjo era, we drifted toward a one-party atmosphere. Many joined the All Progressives Congress. We shouted “one-party state!” but refused to ask why opposition parties offered no alternatives beyond press statements. Blame is a lazy currency; accountability is harder. Parties do not win by default; opponents lose by negligence.

In parts of the North, voices of criticism returned after the hush of the Muhammadu Buhari years. Yet collective action lagged. Power visited, but productivity did not. We had moments, appointments, platforms, access—but failed to translate them into outcomes for the people who lent us their hopes. Criticism is not courage if it does not organize itself into service.

The country remained divided as ethnic lines drawn in permanent ink, religious fault lines widened by opportunists. And yes, the matter of Nnamdi Kanu found a new rhetorical address in Sokoto, as if relocating arguments could resolve grievances. Nigeria loves to move problems around and call it progress.

So, was 2025 good or bad? Pick your choice. Like our estate meeting, both truths sat in the same room. The chairman’s car was loud; the transformer was broken. We were angry at the theft but offended by the question. We defended integrity in theory while ignoring process in practice.

Here is the metaphor we keep missing: corruption is not only about bad people; it is about bad systems that concentrate trust without checks. We did not give the money to a policeman because policemen steal. We gave it to one person because we confuse authority with accountability. Nigeria does this often. We centralize trust, then feign shock when it leaks.

2025 showed us flashes of competence; events secured, queues gone, food available. It also showed us the hollowness beneath: thin wallets, brittle unity, lazy opposition, relocated grievances. Good things happened. Bad things too. The lesson is not to deny either, but to learn how to hold money together without worshipping the custodian; how to celebrate fuel without forgetting income; how to host games without postponing justice.

It was the year we collected all kinds of loans, and not exactly sure if we can say same of littered infrastructures, we spent more on aesthetics than the real deal

The young man’s question still echoes. It was not an insult; it was an audit. Nigeria needs more audits—of systems, not just souls. Less bass from the car, more balance in the books. If we can do that, perhaps the next transformer will hum, and the next December will be boring in the best possible way—and may Nigeria win.

When the National Theatre Lagos first opened ahead of FESTAC ’77, an architectural marvel,a symbol of the cultural soul of a nation ready to introduce its artistic brilliance to the world. Modelled after the Varna Palace of Culture and Sports in Bulgaria and constructed between 1973 and 1976, the National Theatre was designed as an emblem of Nigeria’s ambition to be Africa’s cultural capital. Its 5,000-seat main hall, festival arena, exhibition spaces, and state-of-the-art acoustics made it one of the most sophisticated performance complexes on the continent.

Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, the Theatre became home to Nigeria’s most iconic productions, from Hubert Ogunde’s epic plays to international dance festivals, orchestral performances, film premieres, and global conferences. It was a beacon for African creativity, a place where culture, identity, music, and storytelling came alive. But by the early 2000s, the Theatre, though heavy with cultural memory, had fallen into disrepair. Years of inadequate maintenance, stalled concession agreements, and structural depreciation left the building struggling to meet modern technical and creative demands. The symbol of national pride had become a shadow of its past promise.

Recognising the scale of cultural loss and the opportunity embedded within it, the Bankers’ Committee, with Access Bank playing a pivotal role, initiated the largest cultural infrastructure revitalisation project in contemporary Nigeria. The decision was both strategic and patriotic: Nigeria’s creative industry, now contributing significantly to GDP through film, fashion, music, design, cultural tourism, and digital content, urgently needed a modern, centralised hub that could support global-standard production and creative entrepreneurship. Reviving the National Theatre would not only restore a national icon but also stimulate job creation, attract international collaborations, and reposition Lagos as a premier African creative economy hub.

The renewal of the National Theatre is therefore more than a restoration project; it is anecessary economic intervention, a cultural renaissance, and a visionary step toward building a more inclusive and future-ready Nigeria. And for Access Bank, supporting this transformation is a natural continuation of a long, deliberate commitment to art, culture, and creative empowerment.

Access Bank’s Legacy of Championing the Creative Economy

Well before Nigeria’s creative industry gained global recognition, Access Bank had positioned itself as a cultural investor and ecosystem builder. For over a decade, the Bank has supported transformational initiatives across music, visual arts, fashion, film, sustainability, and youth development.

Access Bank has helped spotlight emerging and established African artists on a global stage through partnerships and collaborations with platforms like ART X. The annual fair, now one of Africa’s most influential contemporary art events, has benefitted immensely from the Bank’s commitment to nurturing young talent, commissioning bold projects, and providing a meeting point for creators, collectors, and global art enthusiasts.

In film and entertainment, Access Bank has backed festivals, documentaries, youth-focused storytelling, and creative incubators, recognising that Nigeria’s cultural exports are among its most powerful global assets. Across literature, community theatre, design, and public art, the Access brand remains synonymous with innovation, creativity, and cultural elevation. The revival of the National Theatre is thus an extension of this commitment.

A Cultural Renaissance Rooted in National Development

The National Theatre project is designed as a two-phase undertaking. Phase One, already significantly advanced, focuses on restoring the original theatre structure. This includes upgrading the main stage, cinema halls, exhibition spaces, lighting systems, acoustics, seating, ventilation, and accessibility infrastructure. The goal is to return the iconic building to world-class functionality while preserving its historic architecture.

Phase Two introduces a modern Creative Industries Park, a multi-purpose development designed to house film production studios, music recording labs, fashion houses, IT and gaming centers, photography studios, coworking spaces, and training academies. This innovation hub is expected to host thousands of young creators annually, enabling them to produce, learn, collaborate, and scale ideas into globally competitive businesses.

With Access Bank’s involvement through the Bankers’ Committee, the project has attracted international partnerships, institutional investors, technical specialists, and creative collaborators. It is poised to become one of the most significant cultural and economic catalysts in West Africa.

In a world where creative exports have become a major source of national influence, from Nollywood films to Afrobeats, digital arts to global fashion, infrastructure is destiny. Nigeria’s young creators generate some of the world’s most consumed cultural content, yet the ecosystem has lacked the physical and institutional support systems needed to harness that potential fully.

The revitalised National Theatre is therefore a launchpad for Nigeria’s next creative era.

With Access Bank’s long-standing commitment to empowering Africa’s creative industries, the revival blends heritage with innovation, history with ambition, and art with economic development.

From art fairs to creative hubs, sustainability initiatives to youth empowerment, Access Bank continues to champion platforms that inspire, educate, and elevate communities across the country.

By supporting the transformation of the National Theatre, the Bank has once again placed itself at the heart of Nigeria’s cultural renewal, bridging past and future, preserving heritage, and building an ecosystem where creativity can thrive without limits.