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Taxing, Borrowing the Future Without Building: What Has Nigeria’s Fiscal Authority Done for the Real Sector?

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Tinubu Borrowing the Future Without Building

By Blaise Udunze

In today’s Nigeria, one uncomfortable truth has become glaring that the fiscal authority collects, but it does not build. It borrows, but it does not produce. It taxes, but it does not empower. For years, the Nigerian government has pursued fiscal policies more obsessed with revenue than with results.

The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 was supposed to mark a new dawn. It was sold to Nigerians as a path to fiscal freedom as a step that would redirect over $10 billion annually from consumption subsidies to capital investment, infrastructure, health care, education and job creation. Two years later, that promise has vanished into a fog of political spending and bureaucratic complacency.

The question now is not how much the government has collected, but what it has done with it. What tangible impact have these revenues from taxations and borrowings had on the real sector which is the part of the economy that actually produces goods, creates jobs, and drives development?

A Fiscal Authority Fixated on Taxation, Not Production

Nigeria’s fiscal policy in recent years has tilted dangerously toward aggressive revenue collection. Under immense pressure to grow non-oil income, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has expanded its reach to virtually every corner of the economy. From VAT on electricity and telecommunications (data usage) to call credits, bank transactions to stamp duties on bank transfers, to levies on postal deliveries for online purchases, almost nothing escapes the government’s tax net.

The average Nigerian entrepreneur now faces a labyrinth of taxes such as company income tax, education tax, signage fees, land use charges, and a myriad of local levies. Yet the same entrepreneur operates in an environment defined by power shortages, failing infrastructure, forex volatility, and regulatory uncertainty. These are not conditions for business growth; they are conditions for extinction.

Taxation, in principle, should be a partnership between the state and the productive class as a social contract that trades compliance for development. But in Nigeria, taxation has become punishment, not partnership. The fiscal authority appears to be taxing poverty to sustain bureaucracy. It has forgotten that the strength of any economy lies not in how much it extracts, but in how much it enables.

Taxing Without Building

For a government that collects billions of naira daily from taxes, surcharges, levies, and newly designed revenue streams, it is difficult to find any visible reflection of these revenues in the productive base of the economy.

Based on FIRS and government releases, tax collections amounted to about N34 trillion in 2023-2024, and non-oil receipts reached around N20.6 trillion in January to August 2025, indicating total government collections of at least N50-N55 trillion since mid-2023, depending on how partial-year and FAAC items are aggregated and without double counting.

The contradiction is glaring that Nigeria’s fiscal managers have become more efficient at collecting taxes but less effective at building the economy that sustains those taxes.

The reality is sobering. SMEs that stand as the true backbone of national productivity are closing shop in droves. The cost of diesel, transportation, and rent have tripled, while the naira’s freefall continues to eat away at margins. Rather than offer relief, fiscal agencies have tightened the noose with new charges and penalties. The result is a climate of exhaustion and economic fatigue.

Borrowing Without Building

If taxation is squeezing businesses dry, borrowing is suffocating the nation’s future. As if taxes were not enough, Nigeria’s fiscal authorities have doubled down on borrowing, amassing debts at an unprecedented rate. These have resulted to spiral of loans justified in the name of development but rarely seen in tangible outcomes.

As of mid-2025, Nigeria’s total public debt has ballooned to N152.4 trillion, a staggering 348.6 percent increase since President Bola Tinubu assumed office in June 2023, when the figure stood at N33.3 trillion. For a country already struggling to meet basic obligations, this is unsustainable.

Reflecting on the wider African context, the picture is equally alarming. The continent’s external debt now exceeds $1.3 trillion, with debt servicing costs hitting $89 billion this year alone. Nigeria is one of the hardest hits, not merely by the size of its debt, but by its lack of productive return.

Even as businesses groan under the weight of multiple taxation, the Federal Government has kept its foot firmly on the borrowing pedal. Between July and October 2025, Nigeria’s fiscal authorities secured over $24.79 billion (plus €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, $500 million in Sukuk) in new borrowings and facilities, the bulk of which were justified as “development financing.” Yet the real sector still awaits to feel the promised impact.

Over 25 percent of Nigeria’s annual revenue now goes into debt servicing, leaving little fiscal space for investment in health, education, or industry. Experts warn that when over 90 percent of government revenue is consumed by old debts, governance becomes survival, not progress.

Uche Uwaleke, professor of finance and capital markets at Nasarawa State University, said the high cost of debt repayment continues to undermine the country’s economic potential.

“Nigeria’s debt service ratio is inimical to economic development, chiefly because what could have been used to build infrastructure and invest in human capital is used to service debt,” Uwaleke told BusinessDay. “The opportunity cost for the country is high. To ensure debt sustainability, the government should tie future borrowings to self-liquidating projects that can generate revenue to repay the loans.”

At the 2025 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington D.C., global leaders again pledged to tackle developing countries’ debt burdens. But as Nigeria’s borrowing continues unchecked through Eurobonds, sukuk, and bilateral loans. The question Nigerians should be asking is simple, who benefits from all this borrowing?

What is more troubling is the government’s pattern of borrowing to service past debts and fund recurrent expenditures. Instead of financing projects that create value, loans are spent plugging budget holes. The chain of debt grows longer, and the productive economy remains static.

We are witnessing a fiscal irony as in a nation borrowing to survive, not to thrive.

The Missed Opportunity of Subsidy Savings

The removal of fuel subsidy was supposed to free up capital for productive investments. Instead, it has freed up more money for recurrent consumption. Subsidy funds are now shared monthly among the three tiers of government, with no visible developmental footprint.

Nigerians were told that the subsidy windfall would improve power supply, roads, and transport infrastructure. But more than a year later, there is little to show.

In one of the world’s largest oil producing nations, fuel prices quintupled, increasing more than 514 percent from N175 in May 2023 to N900. Across the country, small businesses are closing down; transport fares remain unbearable; and electricity supply remains erratic. The fiscal authority appears to have replaced subsidy waste with revenue waste.

Instead of using subsidy savings to ignite productivity, the funds have been channeled into the same unsustainable cycle of political spending, salary payments, and administrative overheads. This is not reform, it’s redistribution without responsibility.

Where Is the Fiscal Policy Coordination?

The disconnect between Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary authorities has become a fundamental barrier to progress. While the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) tightens liquidity to control inflation, the fiscal authority simultaneously floods the economy with new taxes and levies, inflating business costs and undermining the same stability the CBN is trying to achieve.

The contradictions are endless. The CBN preaches financial inclusion, yet fiscal agencies impose bank transfer duties that discourage banking usage. The CBN claims to promote SME credit schemes, yet fiscal authorities drain disposable income with new taxes.

This absence of policy synergy sends mixed signals to investors and citizens alike. Businesses cannot plan, investors cannot forecast, and even the government’s own intervention funds lose impact. Nigeria’s economic management, as it stands, resembles an orchestra without a conductor.

State Governments as the Silent Beneficiaries

While the federal government collects the bulk of taxes, state governments have become silent beneficiaries of the subsidy savings. Each month, they receive billions from FAAC allocations swollen by oil receipts, VAT, and subsidy removals.

Based on data from NEITI and OAGF/NBS monthly communiqués, the conservative FAAC disbursement total from June 2023 to June 2025 stands at approximately N25.65 trillion, covering only months with publicly available and verifiable reports.

Yet, few states have anything to show for it. Industries are dying, roads are deteriorating, and capital budgets are chronically underfunded. In many states, governance has been reduced to salary payments and political campaigns, not development.

Nigeria’s fiscal success cannot be measured by how much Abuja collects but by what states deliver. Development is a chain, if one link is weak, the entire system collapses. Yet, most states continue to depend on federal allocations as a feeding bottle rather than a development engine.

The federal fiscal authority cannot claim progress while sub-national governments squander shared revenues without accountability. Until FAAC allocations are tied to measurable developmental outcomes, Nigeria will keep sharing poverty, not prosperity.

The Real Sector being Neglected and Starved

Nigeria’s real sector, particularly SMEs continues to suffer neglect. Despite contributing about 48 percent of GDP, accounting for over 90 percent of businesses and employing over 80 percent of the workforce, SMEs receive less than 5 percent of total bank credit. Fiscal policy has done little to change that.

Rather than providing targeted tax reliefs, infrastructure subsidies, or credit guarantees, government policies have worsened the cost of doing business. The manufacturing sector’s growth rate remains sluggish, and capacity utilisation in many factories has dropped below 50 percent.

Manufacturers grapple with power cuts, forex scarcity, and multiple taxation. Many are forced to rely on expensive diesel generators, further eroding competitiveness. Import duties remain high, ports are congested, and logistics costs keep rising.

Ajayi Kadiri, Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), recently captured this frustration bluntly:

“We can’t plan under fiscal chaos. Manufacturing in my village is extremely expensive. Multiple levies, some without a legal basis, are suffocating businesses. You can wake up one day and see a 50 percent increase in port charges without prior consultation. That’s not policy that’s chaos.”

Kadiri’s statement is more than an industry complaint; it is a mirror of national dysfunction. When manufacturers cannot plan, the economy cannot grow. When fiscal policy becomes unpredictable, investment flees. The result is a landscape of abandoned factories, unemployed youth, and shrinking export potential.

In effect, the fiscal authority is extracting value without creating it. Government has become an expert in revenue collection but a failure in economic coordination.

The Human Cost of Fiscal Mismanagement

Behind the numbers lies a painful reality. Every percentage increase in tax or tariff translates into higher prices, lower wages, and fewer jobs. The removal of subsidy without a viable safety net pushed millions deeper into poverty. Despite the inflation claimed to have eased to 18.02 percent from 20.12 is still eroding purchasing power and diminished consumer demand, which is the lifeblood of production.

The market woman who pays for electricity she rarely gets, the manufacturer laying off workers due to diesel costs, the young entrepreneur crushed by levies, as these are not statistics. They are the casualties of a fiscal system that prioritises collection over compassion.

Instead of designing targeted support, energy rebates, SME tax credits, or rural infrastructure programs the fiscal authority has chosen the easier path by taking more from those already struggling. This short-term approach sacrifices long-term productivity for instant revenue gratification.

Need for Building, Not Just Taxing

To rescue the economy, Nigeria’s fiscal managers must adopt a production-first mindset. A nation cannot tax or borrow its way to prosperity. It must produce, build, and export its way there.

Rebalance fiscal priorities.

–       Channel subsidy savings into infrastructure, agro-industrial hubs, and SME credit facilities not recurrent spending.

–       Reward production, not compliance. Offer tax breaks for local manufacturers, exporters, and innovators.

–       Enforce fiscal transparency. Every borrowed dollar should be tied to measurable outcomes, with clear public reporting.

–       Align fiscal and monetary policy. End the contradiction between tax expansion and credit tightening.

–       Demand state-level accountability. States must show what they are doing with FAAC allocations through verifiable projects, not political slogans.

The Urgency of a Fiscal Rethink

Nigeria’s fiscal policy has lost its moral and developmental compass. It has become a machine that extracts without empowering as a structure more focused on sustaining government than building an economy.

Taxation should create an environment where businesses thrive. Borrowing should build the future, not mortgage it. And subsidy savings should become the foundation of national renewal, not political redistribution.

Until Nigeria’s fiscal authorities understand that revenue collection is not development, and that loans are not progress, the economy will remain trapped in a vicious cycle of taxing without building, borrowing without producing, and spending without transforming.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]

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In Praise of Nigeria’s Elite Memory Loss Clinic

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memory loss clinic Busayo Cole

By Busayo Cole

There’s an unacknowledged marvel in Nigeria, a national institution so revered and influential that its very mention invokes awe; and not a small dose of amnesia. I’m speaking, of course, about the glorious Memory Loss Clinic for the Elite, a facility where unsolved corruption cases go to receive a lifetime membership in our collective oblivion.

Take a walk down the memory lane of scandals past, and you’ll encounter a magical fog. Who remembers the details of the N2.5 billion pension fund scam? Anyone? No? Good. That’s exactly how the clinic works. Through a combination of political gymnastics, endless court adjournments, and public desensitisation, these cases are carefully wrapped in a blanket of vagueness. Brilliant, isn’t it?

The beauty of this clinic lies in its inclusivity. From the infamous Dasukigate, which popularised the phrase “arms deal” in Nigeria without actually arming anything, to the less publicised but equally mystifying NDDC palliative fund saga, the clinic accepts all cases with the same efficiency. Once enrolled, each scandal receives a standard treatment: strategic denial, temporary outrage, and finally, oblivion.

Not to be overlooked are the esteemed practitioners at this clinic: our very own politicians and public officials. Their commitment to forgetting is nothing short of Nobel-worthy. Have you noticed how effortlessly some officials transition from answering allegations one week to delivering keynote speeches on accountability the next? It’s an art form.

Then there’s the media, always ready to lend a hand. Investigative journalists dig up cases, splash them across headlines for a week or two, and then move on to the next crisis, leaving the current scandal to the skilled hands of the clinic’s erasure team. No one does closure better than us. Or rather, the lack thereof.

And let’s not forget the loyal citizens, the true heroes of this operation. We rant on social media, organise a protest or two, and then poof! Our collective short attention span is the lifeblood of the Memory Loss Clinic. Why insist on justice when you can unlook?

Take, for example, the Halliburton Scandal. In 2009, a Board of Inquiry was established under the leadership of Inspector-General of Police, Mike Okiro, to investigate allegations of a $182 million bribery scheme involving the American company Halliburton and some former Nigerian Heads of State. Despite Halliburton admitting to paying the bribes to secure a $6 billion contract for a natural gas plant, the case remains unresolved. The United States fined the companies involved, but in Nigeria, the victims of the corruption: ordinary citizens, received no compensation, and no one was brought to justice. The investigation, it seems, was yet another patient admitted to the clinic.

Or consider the Petroleum Trust Fund Probe, which unraveled in the late 1990s. Established during General Sani Abacha’s regime and managed by Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, the PTF’s operations were scrutinised when Chief Olusegun Obasanjo assumed office in 1999. The winding-down process uncovered allegations of mismanagement, dubious dealings, and a sudden, dramatic death of a key figure, Salihijo Ahmad, the head of the PTF’s sole management consultant. Despite the drama and the revelations, the case quietly faded into obscurity, leaving Nigerians with more questions than answers.

Then there is the colossal case of under-remittance of oil and gas royalties and taxes. The Federal Government, through the Special Presidential Investigatory Panel (SPIP), accused oil giants like Shell, Agip, and the NNPC of diverting billions of dollars meant for public coffers. Allegations ranged from falsified production figures to outright embezzlement. Despite detailed accusations and court proceedings, the cases were abandoned after the SPIP’s disbandment in 2019. As usual, the trail of accountability disappeared into thin air, leaving the funds unaccounted for and the public betrayed yet again.

Of course, this institution isn’t without its critics. Some stubborn Nigerians still insist on remembering. Creating spreadsheets, tracking cases, and daring to demand accountability. To these radicals, I say: why fight the tide? Embrace the convenience of selective amnesia. Life is easier when you don’t worry about where billions disappeared to or why someone’s cousin’s uncle’s housemaid’s driver has an oil block.

As World Anti-Corruption Day comes and goes, let us celebrate the true innovation of our time. While other nations are busy prosecuting offenders and recovering stolen funds, we have mastered the fine art of forgetting. Who needs convictions when you have a clinic this efficient? Oh, I almost forgot the anti-corruption day as I sent my draft to a correspondent very late. Don’t blame me, I am just a regular at the clinic.

So, here’s to Nigeria’s Memory Loss Clinic, a shining beacon of how to “move on” without actually moving forward. May it continue to thrive, because let’s face it: without it, what would we do with all these unsolved corruption cases? Demand justice? That’s asking a lot. Better to forget and focus on the next election season. Who knows? We might even re-elect a client of the clinic. Wouldn’t that be poetic?

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have a new scandal to ignore.

Busayo Cole is a Branding and Communications Manager who transforms abstract corporate goals into actionable, sparkling messaging. It’s rumored that 90% of his strategic clarity is powered by triple-shot espresso, and the remaining 10% is sheer panic. He can be reached via busayo@busayocole.com. 

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How Nigerian Companies are Leading More Responsible Digital Transformation

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Kehinde Ogundare 2025

By Kehinde Ogundare

Artificial intelligence is everywhere–in polished social media posts, in the recommendations that guide our viewing habits, and in the bots that handle customer queries before a human agent steps in. On LinkedIn, AI-assisted writing has become standard practice.

A year ago, more than half of English long-form posts that went viral were estimated to have been written by or assisted by AI. If that’s the norm on the world’s biggest business network, it’s no surprise that AI is driving conversations in Nigerian boardrooms as companies move from experimentation to embedding AI into their daily operations.

Part of the package

The Nigeria Data Protection Act (NDPA), modelled on the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation, together with the Nigeria Data Protection Commission, requires companies to build privacy into their systems from the outset rather than adding it later. This clear regulatory framework has evolved alongside a rapid rise in AI adoption.

New research from Zoho on responsible AI adoption highlights the impact of the regulations. As per the report, 93% of Nigerian companies have already started using AI in their daily operations; 84% have tightened their privacy controls after adoption, and 94% now have a dedicated privacy officer or team, which is well above global averages.

The survey, conducted by Arion Research LLC among 386 senior executives, shows just how deeply embedded AI has become in Nigeria. One in four companies already uses it across several departments, and nearly a third report advanced integration. Financial services firms are pioneers in this sector, using AI to automate client interactions, streamline operations and sharpen their marketing, while staying compliant with data protection rules.

The NDPA has helped make privacy part of business planning. Four in ten companies now spend more than 30% of their IT budgets on privacy. Regular audits, privacy impact assessments and explainability checks are becoming standard practice.

Skills, compliance and capacity

Rapid adoption brings challenges. More than a third of businesses say that their biggest obstacle is a lack of technical skills, and another 35% cite privacy and security risks. Instead of outsourcing, most are building capacity in-house: nearly 70% of companies are training staff in data analysis, more than half are improving general AI literacy, and 40% are investing in prompt engineering for generative tools.

The understanding of the NDPA regulation, which came into force in 2023, has also improved. 65% of organisations see compliance as essential. Many voluntarily apply data-minimisation and transparency standards even when not required to do so, aligning more closely with international norms and easing collaboration with global partners.

Privacy is increasingly influencing business decisions — from investment priorities to system design. Companies are asking tougher questions: is specific data essential? How can exposure be limited? How can fairness and transparency be proven?

Trusted systems

As privacy becomes part of how technology is built, companies are being more cautious about the tools they use because they now want systems that protect customer data, with clear boundaries between data and model training, straightforward controls, and reliable records for compliance teams.

Demand for business software that balances productivity with privacy is also growing. Zoho, among others, has seen strong customer growth as more organisations are looking for platforms that support responsible data handling.

The study identifies three main reasons behind AI adoption: to make work more efficient by automating routine tasks, to support better decision-making by identifying patterns sooner, and to improve customer engagement through faster, more relevant interactions. But none of this can succeed without trust. Nigeria’s experience shows that privacy and innovation can reinforce each other when they’re built together.

There’s still work to do because some industries are moving faster than others, and smaller businesses often face the biggest hurdles in time, cost and skills. Enforcement is also patchy; while the law is clear, application across sectors and geographies is a work in progress.

The next steps are more practical, requiring investment in skills – from data analysis and AI literacy to sector-specific training – and for governance to be put in place, with clear responsibilities, written policies, and a plan for managing errors or breaches. Privacy impact assessments should become part of every new system rollout, enabled by technology.

As AI becomes fundamental to doing business, Nigerian companies that build it carefully and responsibly will be better able to compete at home and abroad.

Kehinde Ogundare is the Country Head for Zoho Nigeria

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Nigeria’s Schools Closure and the Disease of Rhotacism

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school closure

By Prince Charles Dickson, PhD

The inability to pronounce the letter r is called rhotacism—a quiet irony in speech pathology, where sufferers lack the tongue to name their condition. Nigeria today appears afflicted by a similar policy disorder: an incapacity to articulate the real threats to learning, safety, and development, while endlessly announcing their symptoms. The reflexive closure of schools across states, often with the Federal Government’s blessing, is not merely a security response; it is a linguistic failure of governance. We cannot pronounce the problem, so we silence the classroom.

At surface level, school closures masquerade as prudence. No leader wants abducted children, grieving parents, viral outrage. But development practice teaches us to distrust surface logic. If classrooms are unsafe, what calculus deems campuses secure? If primary schools are closed in the name of vulnerability, why do lecture halls hum, convocation grounds fill, churches and mosques swell, markets bustle, and political rallies roar? The policy geometry is incoherent. Risk does not dissolve with age brackets or academic levels; it migrates along opportunity lines. Violence, like water, flows where barriers are weakest—not where regulations are loudest.

The headline figures tell a damning story. Over 42,000 schools categorized as vulnerable. A $30 million Safe School Initiative announced, lauded, and then largely evaporated into PowerPoint memory. What exactly has closure achieved in this arithmetic? If risk prompted closure, closure must prompt mitigation. Yet what we witness is substitution, not solution. Strategy is replaced by symbolism. Doors are shut to demonstrate action while the engines of threat, the logistics, financing, intelligence gaps, and ungoverned spaces remain scandalously intact.

The first ethical question is not poetic distrust; it is arithmetic ethics. How many days of learning are lost per closure? How many children drift permanently out of school into child labor, early marriage, recruitment pipelines, or migration traps? Empirical evidence across fragile contexts, from the Sahel to Northeast Nigeria, shows that prolonged closures fracture educational trajectories irreversibly. A classroom shut today becomes a livelihood foreclosed tomorrow. When education systems stall, insecurity does not retreat; it recruits.

Development is not administered by press statements. It is built through boring, relentless infrastructure—data infrastructure, trust infrastructure, and response infrastructure. Consider Community Early Warning Systems (CEWS). Where they exist and function, attacks are anticipated, routes mapped, and escalation interrupted. Where they are absent, closure becomes the blunt instrument of last resort. Yet how many states have meaningfully integrated CEWS into school security architecture? How many have empowered bodies to convene multi-actor protection coalitions that include women, youth, traditional leaders, transport unions, and faith networks? The chalk does not hold risk; the cheque does. And the cheque has been shamefully mute.

Security is not the absence of pupils; it is the presence of intelligence. Closing schools without opening data is policy rhotacism. We cannot pronounce “threat mapping,” so we mouth “shutdown.” We cannot say “transport node vulnerability,” so we say “holiday.” We cannot articulate “perimeter hardening and community interception routes,” so we declare “postponement.” The oxygen of risk—enrolment points, travel corridors, marketplaces abutting school fences requires monitoring in real time. If threat mapping did not intensify the moment schools closed, then the threat merely changed address, not behavior.

The contradiction deepens when worship spaces remain open. Christian Association of Nigeria congregations gather. Nigeria Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs convenes faithful. If the doctrine is crowd risk, the exemptions are indefensible. If the doctrine is youth vulnerability, then universities must not be exempt. If the doctrine is intelligence deficit, then closure is an admission of systemic failure. You cannot claim safety by relocating learning into chaos. Faith spaces recognize a truth policy forgets: protection flows from relationship density. The congregation knows its strangers. Does the school gate?

Globally, contexts plagued by school-related violence have moved in the opposite direction—not toward retreat, but toward smart hardening. Drone reconnaissance over school corridors. AI-assisted risk scoring that fuses incident data, weather, market days, and movement patterns. Platforms to defuse land, grazing, and community disputes before they metastasize into school-adjacent violence. Psychosocial resilience units embedded in schools. Community rangers trained, insured, and supervised, not as vigilantes but as guardians accountable to law. Transparent pilots with public dashboards. Sanctions for local leaders who ignore warning signals. None of this is theoretical.

Because closure is administratively convenient. It transfers responsibility from execution to explanation. Once schools are shut, failure becomes abstract. Metrics blur. When exactly did the risk reduce? Who measures it? At what threshold does reopening occur? Without benchmarks, closure becomes the chief KPI of insecurity governance. That is not security architecture; it is security bureaucracy—forms without force, memos without muscle.

Local Government Areas on volatile frontiers—whether in Niger State or Kogi are living laboratories of conciliation culture. Traditional dispute resolution, faith mediation, women-led early warning, youth intelligence networks; these are not weaknesses to be ignored until Abuja’s biro approves boots on the ground. They are strengths to be funded, trained, and supervised. Development practice demands co-design. Are LGA leaders co-authoring protection protocols, or passively awaiting circulars? Centralization kills time; time kills children’s futures.

The opportunity costs of closure are staggering and gendered. Girls pay first and longest. Distance learning fantasies collapse where electricity, devices, and safety at home are uneven. Boys drift into non-state labor or armed networks promising income and belonging. Teachers disengage. Trust between communities and state frays further. When schools finally reopen—if they do—the damage is cumulative. Closure does not pause risk; it compounds it.

There is also a moral hazard. Normalizing closure teaches adversaries what works. Disrupt learning to extract concessions. Threaten the symbol to paralyze the system. Deterrence requires resilience. A state that keeps schools open while hardening them sends a different signal: intimidation will not erase futures.

To be clear, this is not romantic defiance. There are moments when temporary closure is warranted. But temporary requires temporality: timelines, triggers, alternatives. Closure without an accompanying surge in intelligence, infrastructure, and accountability is futility dressed as care. It is rhotacism—the inability to name and thus cure the disease.

So, the unperfumed questions must persist. What exactly is being done differently today that was not urgent yesterday? Where are the transparent pilots funded by the Safe School Initiative? Who owns the dashboards? Which perimeters were hardened, which routes monitored, which sanctions enforced? Who measures risk reduction, and when is bureaucracy upgraded into architecture?

Shutting schools may shelter minds briefly. But without strategy that attacks the root—financing of violence, data blindness, local exclusion, and accountability gaps—it only shelters the conscience of policy. Until answers arrive with evidence of execution, Nigeria’s schools are not closed for safety. They are closed for convenience. And convenience, like rhotacism, leaves us unable to pronounce the truth. May Nigeria win.

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