By Aduragbemi Omiyale

On Saturday, February 28, 2026, the Implementation Committee for Executive Order 9 held its inaugural meeting, headed by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun.

The panel, at the gathering, reaffirmed the directive of President Bola Tinubu that revenues accruing to the federation from petroleum operations must be handled in a manner that upholds constitutional principles, protects revenues accruable to the nation, and supports the fiscal stability of all three tiers of government.

It approved the establishment of a technical subcommittee to develop the detailed guidelines for the transition to direct remittance within three weeks, and commence a review of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to address structural and fiscal anomalies that weaken Federation revenues.

It was agreed that the subcommittee would be led by the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, and will include the Solicitor-General of the Federation and Permanent Secretary Federal Ministry of Justice, the Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service, and the Chairman of the Forum of Commissioners of Finance, representatives of the Minister of State Petroleum Resources, Oil, with secretarial support from the Budget Office of the Federation.

The committee promised to provide coordinated guidance and timely updates as implementation progresses. It commended the cooperation of all stakeholders in advancing the President’s efforts to ensure that Nigeria’s petroleum resources deliver tangible, measurable benefits to citizens across the Federation.

Under the new order, Mr Tinubu directed that NNPC Limited shall cease, with immediate effect, the collection of the 30 per cent management fee and the 30 per cent frontier exploration fund deductions from profit oil and profit gas under Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs).

Additionally, all remittances of gas flare penalties into the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund (MDGIF) are suspended with immediate effect, in line with the Executive Order.

With respect to Section 2, Sub-section 3 of the Executive Order on direct payments by contractors into the Federation Account, the panel agreed that this transition must be implemented in a manner that respects existing contractual and financing arrangements, and maintains investor confidence.

For this reason, the committee approved a defined transition period for the operationalisation of direct payments by contractors of profit oil, royalty oil, and tax oil into the Federation Account.

Until the Committee issues detailed guidelines, contractors will continue to remit under the current process. During the transition period, the Committee will issue clear, standardised guidance to ensure an orderly changeover.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria could face a windfall from rising oil prices as Brent crude, the international crude benchmark, hit $80 per barrel on Monday as the United States and Israel air strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into crisis.

Following the action, which commenced on Saturday, most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for around 20 per cent of global oil flows.

Energy analysts and investment banks expect oil prices to surge this week to $90, with a chance of hitting $100 per barrel if disruptions to traffic in the crucial Strait of Hormuz persist.

As of press time, oil prices had already spiked by 10 per cent to above $80 per barrel for Brent. This could have a positive ripple effect for Nigeria, which is an oil-producing country despite challenges to production, as it uses the Brent crude price to gauge the value of its crude grades, including Bonny Light, Qua Iboe, Forcados, Escravos, among others.

Nigeria, which depends on crude for over 80 per cent of export earnings and a substantial share of government revenue, could see elevated prices translate to higher foreign exchange earnings, stronger reserves, and improved balance of payments.

Seeing the scale of the conflict and the already disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts expect further spikes at least this week. This could mean higher oil export receipts, which could boost Nigeria’s foreign exchange liquidity, which can support the Naira and reduce FX volatility if the gains translate into actual FX inflows.

However, the country is plagued by volatile oil production, with oil output below the 1.5 million quota ascribed by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC). Latest data released last month showed that Nigeria’s production increased to 1.45 million barrels per day in January 2026 from 1.42 million barrels per day in December 2025.

Meanwhile, eight members of OPEC+, excluding Nigeria, on Sunday agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day from April, a modest increase representing less than 0.2 per cent of global demand.

Analysts See Oil Prices at $90 a barrel in the Near Term

Citigroup expects Brent Crude to trade in the $80 to $90 per barrel range over at least the coming week in the bank’s base case.

“Our baseline view is that the Iranian leadership changes, or that the regime changes sufficiently as to stop the war within 1-2 weeks, or the US decides to de-escalate, having seen a change in leadership and set back Iran’s missiles and nuclear program over the same time frame,” analysts at Citigroup wrote in a note carried by Bloomberg.

Goldman Sachs sees an $18 a barrel real-time risk premium in oil prices. However, if only 50 per cent of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are halted for a month, the war risk premium to prices would moderate to $4 per barrel, according to Goldman.

Wood Mackenzie sees disruption in flows to push oil to above $100 per barrel.

“Higher oil and gas prices are certain as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to disrupt 15% of global oil supply and 20% of global LNG supply, with oil prices potentially exceeding $100/bbl if tanker flows are not quickly restored,” it said in a press release.

Rystad expects prices to rise by $20 to about $92 a barrel.

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) has agreed to begin a modest increase in oil production of 206,000 barrels per day from April, just as the US-Israel war on Iran disrupted flows from key members of the group in the Middle East.

In a virtual meeting on Sunday, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman reviewed global supply and demand conditions before deciding to start unwinding part of their additional voluntary production cuts first announced in April 2023.

The countries agreed on a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day for April 2026, marking the first step in easing a 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary reduction introduced nearly three years ago.

In a statement issued after the talks, the group said low oil inventories and stable economic prospects justified a cautious return of supply to the market.

The 1.65 million barrels per day cut, announced in April 2023, was introduced alongside a separate 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary reduction unveiled in November 2023 as part of broader efforts by the OPEC+ alliance to stabilise prices amid economic uncertainty and fluctuating demand.

The eight producers stressed that the 1.65 million barrels per day could be restored “in part or in full” depending on evolving market conditions, and reiterated their readiness to pause or reverse the unwinding if necessary.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions,” the statement said, adding that flexibility would remain central to the group’s strategy.

The move signals confidence among the core OPEC+ members that supply constraints have successfully supported prices while preventing excessive stockpiling. Analysts note that Brent crude prices have remained relatively firm in recent months, supported by disciplined output management and resilient Asian demand.

However, the producers underscored that the adjustment does not mark a full return to pre-cut production levels. They reaffirmed their commitment to the 2022 Declaration of Cooperation, the framework binding OPEC members and non-OPEC allies such as Russia, and said compliance would continue to be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).

The group also confirmed that countries which have overproduced since January 2024 would fully compensate for excess output. Compensation plans are expected to be reviewed monthly.

OPEC+, which accounts for roughly 40 per cent of global crude supply, has repeatedly adjusted output since the Covid-19 pandemic in response to demand shocks, geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures.

The eight countries will hold monthly meetings to assess market developments, conformity and compensation levels, with their next gathering scheduled for April 5, 2026.

Meanwhile, oil, gas and other shipments from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz have come to a halt since Saturday after shipowners received a warning from Iran saying the area was closed for navigation.