Economy
CBN Expects External Reserves to Hit $51.04bn in 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the country’s external reserves would climb to $51.04 billion in 2026, up from $45 billion in 2025.
The projection was contained in the Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria in 2026 titled Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty, published by the apex bank on Tuesday.
“The external reserves are projected at $51.04 billion in 2026 compared with $45.01 billion in 2025. The external reserves are expected to be boosted by reduced pressure in the FX market based on the anticipated rise in oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance, and diaspora remittance inflows.
“Additionally, Dangote refinery’s expansion of its nameplate capacity to 700,000 bpd from 650,000 bpd in 2025 and eventually to 1.4 million bpd in the medium term would further support the growth in external reserves,” the report read.
In the FX market, the apex bank noted that reforms are expected to further enhance efficiency and transparency, narrow the premium between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and Bureau de Change rates, and sustain exchange rate stability.
In addition, improved domestic oil refining capacity is expected to reduce foreign exchange demand for fuel imports.
It also projected a more stable and resilient economy in 2026, despite lingering global uncertainties, citing the impact of reforms implemented since 2023 and improved macroeconomic coordination.
According to the report, the outlook for 2026 is “cautiously optimistic”, with expectations that the economy will stabilise further as growth picks up modestly, inflation continues to moderate, and the foreign exchange market remains stable.
The lender also projected improved activity in the non-oil sector, although it noted that structural constraints persist.
The CBN said that following a prolonged period of monetary tightening to curb inflationary pressures, it eased its policy stance in September 2025 to support domestic growth and investment. The decision, it said, was driven by “continuing disinflation, sustained exchange rate stability, and improved liquidity conditions”.
It added that external buffers strengthened during the period due to increased remittance inflows through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), steady oil receipts, and rising non-oil exports, which collectively supported naira stability.
The CBN also reported “substantial progress” in its transition towards a full-fledged inflation-targeting regime, supported by improved forecasting tools, modelling frameworks, and enhanced policy communication.
According to the outlook, strategic policy decisions taken in 2025 improved price and exchange rate stability, boosted capital inflows, and strengthened the resilience of the financial system.
It noted that significant progress was also recorded in the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise, with many banks already meeting the new capital thresholds.
“As a result of the implementation of coordinated macroeconomic policy measures and the impact of the reforms, the Outlook projects a more stable and resilient Nigerian economy in 2026,” the report stated, adding that inflation is expected to continue moderating, output growth to strengthen, and foreign exchange stability to be sustained, leading to further reserve accumulation.
The document stressed the need for harmonised fiscal and monetary policies, institutional reforms, and tailored guidelines to sustain investor confidence and economic momentum.
The apex bank also stressed the importance of maintaining orthodox monetary policy and continued reforms in the foreign exchange market to ensure price and exchange rate stability.
By Adedapo Adesanya
A 0.91 per cent growth was recorded by the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Friday, May 22, after the share prices of four securities ended in green.
According to data, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc went up by N15.61 to N179.67 per share from N164.06 per share, Newrest Asl Plc grew by N6.11 to N67.26 per unit from N61.15 per unit, Food Concepts Plc appreciated by 17 Kobo to N2.75 per share from N2.58 per share, and Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc added 6 Kobo to sell at N25.50 per unit compared with the previous day’s N25.44 per unit.
At the close of business, the market capitalisation chalked up N23.22 billion to settle at N2.561 trillion versus Thursday’s N2.538 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 38.81 points to 4,281.28 points from 4,242.47 points.
During the session, the price of Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS) Plc was down by N3.13 to N71.07 per share from N74.20 per share.
The activity chart showed that the volume of securities transacted by the market participants decreased yesterday by 81.6 per cent to 590,339 units from the 3.2 million units recorded on Thursday, as the number of deals shrank by 28.6 per cent to 30 deals from the 42 deals recorded a day earlier, while the value of securities increased by 0.5 per cent to N95.3 million from the preceding session’s N94.8 million.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc closed the day as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with a turnover of 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 61.2 million units traded for N4.1 billion.
The most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was GNI Plc, with the sale of 3.4 billion units for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units exchanged for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange witnessed a decline in transactions on Friday despite closing higher by 0.22 per cent on the back of sustained bargain-hunting.
During the last trading session of the week, investors transacted 711.9 million equities valued at N29.1 billion in 62,386 deals compared with the 1.1 billion equities worth N31.0 billion traded in 62,448 deals in the previous day, indicating a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 35.28 per cent, 6.13 per cent, and 0.10 per cent, respectively.
Fidelity Bank closed the day as the most active stock with the sale of 198.1 million units for N4.6 billion, Access Holdings traded 69.7 million units worth N1.8 billion, Mutual Benefits exchanged 42.7 million units valued at N197.4 million, Japaul transacted 33.9 million units worth N134.4 million, and Zenith Bank sold 24.4 million units valued at N3.2 billion.
Yesterday, the industrial goods index rose by 0.53 per cent, the consumer goods sector jumped 0.28 per cent, the banking industry improved by 0.25 per cent, and the energy counter soared by 0.18 per cent, while the insurance space shed 0.18 per cent.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 536.98 points to finish at 249,712.37 points compared with the previous day’s 249,175.39 points, and the market capitalisation grew by N344 billion to N160.077 trillion from N159.733 trillion.
Aluminium Extrusion and DAAR Communications expanded by 10.00 per cent each to sell for N9.90 and N2.09, respectively, RT Briscoe surged by 9.93 per cent to N14.06, Learn Africa increased by 9.79 per cent to N12.90, and Red Star Express advanced by 9.56 per cent to N34.95.
On the flip side, Trans-Nationwide Express depreciated by 9.92 per cent to N5.72, Livestock Feeds dipped by 9.64 per cent to N8.90, The Initiates crashed by 8.65 per cent to N33.80, Ellah Lakes drowned by 8.64 per cent to N10.05, and Neimeth lost 6.36 per cent to trade at N10.30.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira weakened against the United States Dollar by N3.15 or 0.23 per cent to N1,375.46/$1 from N1,372.31/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, May 22.
It was also a similar situation for the domestic currency against the Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday, as it lost N9.46 to sell for N1,849.72/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,840.26/£1, and against the Euro, it depreciated by N6.26 to close at N1,597.04/€1, in contrast to Thursday’s exchange rate of N1,590.78/€1.
At the GTBank FX desk, the Nigerian Naira tumbled against the Dollar during the session by N2 to trade at N1,381/$1 versus the previous day’s N1,379/$1, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,390/$1.
Analysts at Cowry Asset Management Limited, in their weekly financial outlook, have projected the Naira will remain under soft pressure in near term due to continuous FX demand.
“Looking ahead, the Naira may remain under mild pressure in the near term due to persistent FX demand, though rising external reserves could help cushion volatility,” they noted.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) this week reiterated that it would continue with its current policy direction to sustain the fight against inflation and stabilise the exchange rate.
This comes as the FX market has changed significantly under the ongoing reforms introduced by the apex bank, with increased market liquidity reducing the need for heavy intervention by the CBN. Its intervention currently accounts for only about 1.2 to 1.3 per cent of total market turnover in 2025, a development he said reflects the growing strength of the market.
Turnover has risen sharply from about $100 million in 2023 to roughly $550 million presently, with transactions occasionally climbing to as high as $1 billion in a single day.
A look at the cryptocurrency market showed that it was down on Friday as Mr Kevin Warsh was sworn in by President Donald Trump as the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, replacing Mr Jerome Powell, who will continue as a governor in the US central bank.
The appointment was made in the hope that he would lead the central bank to cut interest rates, but the Iran war has sent oil prices soaring and re-ignited what had been cooling inflation.
Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 5.5 per cent to $2,010.90, Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 5.2 per cent to trade at $0.1001, Cardano (ADA) fell by 5.0 per cent to $0.2389, Solana (SOL) slipped by 4.9 per cent to $82.69, and Bitcoin (BTC) slid by 3.3 per cent to $74,950.02.
Further, Ripple (XRP) went down by 2.9 per cent to $1.32, Binance Coin (BNB) declined by 2.6 per cent to $641.61, and TRON (TRX) shrank by 1.2 per cent to $0.3606, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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