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Economy

CBN Expects External Reserves to Hit $51.04bn in 2026

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FX Reserves

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the country’s external reserves would climb to $51.04 billion in 2026, up from $45 billion in 2025.

The projection was contained in the Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria in 2026 titled Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty, published by the apex bank on Tuesday.

“The external reserves are projected at $51.04 billion in 2026 compared with $45.01 billion in 2025. The external reserves are expected to be boosted by reduced pressure in the FX market based on the anticipated rise in oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance, and diaspora remittance inflows.

“Additionally, Dangote refinery’s expansion of its nameplate capacity to 700,000 bpd from 650,000 bpd in 2025 and eventually to 1.4 million bpd in the medium term would further support the growth in external reserves,” the report read.

In the FX market, the apex bank noted that reforms are expected to further enhance efficiency and transparency, narrow the premium between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and Bureau de Change rates, and sustain exchange rate stability.

In addition, improved domestic oil refining capacity is expected to reduce foreign exchange demand for fuel imports.

It also projected a more stable and resilient economy in 2026, despite lingering global uncertainties, citing the impact of reforms implemented since 2023 and improved macroeconomic coordination.

According to the report, the outlook for 2026 is “cautiously optimistic”, with expectations that the economy will stabilise further as growth picks up modestly, inflation continues to moderate, and the foreign exchange market remains stable.

The lender also projected improved activity in the non-oil sector, although it noted that structural constraints persist.

The CBN said that following a prolonged period of monetary tightening to curb inflationary pressures, it eased its policy stance in September 2025 to support domestic growth and investment. The decision, it said, was driven by “continuing disinflation, sustained exchange rate stability, and improved liquidity conditions”.

It added that external buffers strengthened during the period due to increased remittance inflows through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), steady oil receipts, and rising non-oil exports, which collectively supported naira stability.

The CBN also reported “substantial progress” in its transition towards a full-fledged inflation-targeting regime, supported by improved forecasting tools, modelling frameworks, and enhanced policy communication.

According to the outlook, strategic policy decisions taken in 2025 improved price and exchange rate stability, boosted capital inflows, and strengthened the resilience of the financial system.

It noted that significant progress was also recorded in the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise, with many banks already meeting the new capital thresholds.

“As a result of the implementation of coordinated macroeconomic policy measures and the impact of the reforms, the Outlook projects a more stable and resilient Nigerian economy in 2026,” the report stated, adding that inflation is expected to continue moderating, output growth to strengthen, and foreign exchange stability to be sustained, leading to further reserve accumulation.

The document stressed the need for harmonised fiscal and monetary policies, institutional reforms, and tailored guidelines to sustain investor confidence and economic momentum.

The apex bank also stressed the importance of maintaining orthodox monetary policy and continued reforms in the foreign exchange market to ensure price and exchange rate stability.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Recapitalisation: Well-Capitalised Insurers Will Strengthen Nigeria’s Economy—NIA

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insurance industry

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Insurers Association (NIA) has said the successful recapitalisation of the insurance industry will strengthen the sector’s ability to support financial stability and economic growth.

NIA Chairman, Mrs Ebelechukwu Nwachukwu, said a well-capitalised insurance industry would be better positioned to meet its obligations promptly, underwrite complex and large-scale risks and serve as a dependable pillar of the Nigerian economy.

She made the remarks while commending the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) for its structured implementation of the new minimum capital requirements under the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025.

Mrs Nwachukwu said NAICOM’s clear guidelines, systematic verification process, defined timelines and rigorous supervision had provided operators with a credible framework for navigating the recapitalisation exercise.

She described the outcome as a major milestone for the industry and congratulated the 43 insurance and reinsurance companies that have successfully met the prescribed minimum capital requirements.

According to her, the exercise represents “a major win not just for regulators and operators, but for policyholders, investors and the wider Nigerian economy.”

Mrs Nwachukwu said the association would continue to work with NAICOM and other stakeholders to consolidate the gains of the exercise, with emphasis on sustainable industry growth, stronger market conduct and improved consumer confidence.

The official also expressed solidarity with the eight companies still undergoing final verification and regulatory review, urging them to remain confident as NAICOM completes the process within the 14-day review period.

The NIA chairman assured policyholders and the wider business community that the insurance industry would emerge from the recapitalisation exercise stronger, more resilient and better positioned to contribute to Nigeria’s economic development.

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Economy

Nigeria Mulls Crude Pricing Reforms to Support Dangote, Local Refiners

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Crude Oil Export Sales

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria is considering reforms to its crude allocation and pricing framework to ease feedstock supply constraints facing local refiners, including the 700,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, according to the Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN).

The proposed reforms are expected to be discussed this week as the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reviews the implementation of the domestic crude supply obligation, which requires oil producers to supply Nigerian refineries before exporting crude.

According to CORAN spokesperson, Mr Eche Idoko, one proposal would allow producers within an international oil company’s network to deliver crude directly to nearby refineries, with the volumes reconciled later at the terminal.

Mr Idoko said the arrangement would reduce reliance on trunklines and bring crude closer to refiners, potentially lowering logistics costs and improving supply efficiency.

Another proposal would allow refiners that lift crude directly from production facilities to receive a discount reflecting freight and handling costs incorporated into Brent-linked pricing but not actually incurred by the buyers.

“This could be a win-win for both the producers and refiners,” Mr Idoko said, as per Reuters.

The proposed changes come amid concerns over the cost and availability of domestic crude for Nigerian refiners. Dangote Refinery has previously said Nigeria’s pricing structure adds about $3 to $4 per barrel to its feedstock costs because crude purchases are routed through producers’ trading arms.

Analysts have identified pricing, rather than physical crude availability, as the main constraint affecting domestic crude transactions.

The reforms could help improve operations at the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest, which has at times faced constraints in securing sufficient crude supplies locally.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) released on Monday showed that producers’ compliance with the domestic crude supply framework increased to more than 90 per cent, from below 43 per cent in the previous quarter.

The regulator said the figure measures actual crude deliveries against volumes allocated by the commission, rather than the proportion of refinery demand that has been met.

Under the framework, producers are required to offer allocated crude volumes to local refineries, with transactions conducted on a willing-buyer, willing-seller basis.

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Economy

Trading Risk Management: A Practical Guide to Protecting Capital in Fast-Moving Markets

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IamForexTrader Top

Markets reward opportunity, but they also punish poor preparation. A trader can have a strong market view and still lose money simply because the position was too large, leverage was excessive, or there was no clear plan for what to do when the market moved in the opposite direction.

This becomes especially important when trading leveraged instruments such as forex and CFDs. Before opening an account, traders should understand not only the markets they intend to trade but also the conditions offered by different providers. Independent comparison resources such as IamForexTrader Top can be useful for reviewing CFD broker options, trading conditions and available platforms before moving on to the equally important question: how much risk should be taken on each trade?

That is where trading risk management begins.

Why Risk Management Matters More Than Predicting Every Trade

New traders often spend most of their time looking for better entry signals. They study charts, indicators, economic news and market forecasts, hoping to increase the percentage of trades that finish profitably.

But even a good trading strategy can fail when risk is poorly controlled.

Trading is fundamentally a game of uncertain outcomes. No technical pattern, analyst forecast or economic indicator can guarantee where a market will move next. Risk management accepts that uncertainty instead of trying to eliminate it.

Good risk management is not about avoiding every loss. It is about making sure one bad decision does not become an account-ending event.

The objective is therefore not to make every trade profitable. It is to keep individual losses manageable enough that the trader can continue operating when a strategy inevitably experiences an unfavorable period.

The Core Elements of Trading Risk Management

A practical risk framework does not need to be complicated. Most of it comes down to controlling a few variables before entering a position.

Risk Element What It Controls Common Mistake Better Habit
Position size Amount exposed to one trade Trading too large after a winning streak Calculate exposure before entering
Stop-loss level Maximum planned loss Moving the stop farther away Define the exit before the entry
Leverage Effective market exposure Using maximum leverage available Use leverage according to risk, not buying power
Risk/reward Potential loss versus target Taking large risks for small gains Compare downside and upside first
Correlation Exposure across several positions Opening multiple similar trades Review total portfolio exposure
Trading frequency Number of opportunities taken Overtrading after a loss Trade only when predefined conditions appear

These elements are closely connected. Changing one can significantly change the overall risk of a trade.

Start With Position Size, Not the Profit Target

One of the most useful changes a trader can make is to stop asking, “How much can I make from this trade?” and start asking, “How much could I lose if I am wrong?”

Imagine a hypothetical trading account with $5,000. Suppose the trader has decided, as part of a personal risk plan, that the maximum acceptable loss on a particular trade is $50.

That $50 becomes the starting point.

The trader can then consider:

  • where the trade idea would logically be invalidated;
  • how far that level is from the planned entry;
  • what position size corresponds to that distance;
  • whether market volatility makes the trade reasonable;
  • and whether other open positions increase total exposure.

The key idea is simple: position size should adapt to the risk of the trade rather than the trader forcing every trade into the same position size.

A wider stop may require a smaller position. A narrower stop may allow a larger position while keeping the planned monetary risk similar.

Understand What Leverage Actually Changes

Leverage is one of the main reasons risk management is especially important in forex and CFD trading.

It allows traders to control market exposure that is larger than the cash committed to the position. This can make capital more efficient, but it also means relatively small market movements can produce disproportionately large changes in account equity.

The availability of high leverage should therefore not be confused with the amount of leverage a trader needs to use.

For example, a trading platform may technically provide enough margin to open a much larger position. That does not automatically make the position appropriate.

A useful principle is:

Available buying power is a technical limit. Risk tolerance should determine the actual position size.

This distinction becomes particularly important during periods of unusual volatility, when prices can move faster than under normal market conditions.

Build the Trade Before Clicking Buy or Sell

A structured trader should be able to describe the trade before entering it.

A basic pre-trade plan may include:

  1. Entry: What price or market condition triggers the trade?
  2. Invalidation: At what point is the original idea no longer valid?
  3. Position size: How much market exposure fits the predefined risk?
  4. Exit: Where will losses be limited?
  5. Target: Where could profits reasonably be taken?
  6. Event risk: Is important economic or corporate news approaching?
  7. Portfolio exposure: Does this position duplicate risk already taken elsewhere?

Writing these points down can also reduce impulsive decisions.

Without a predefined plan, traders are more likely to make decisions while a position is already moving rapidly — exactly when emotions tend to have the greatest influence.

Do Not Ignore Correlated Positions

Risk is not always obvious when looking at trades individually.

Suppose a trader opens several positions that appear to be different. One involves a currency pair, another an equity index and another a commodity. On the screen, they are three separate trades.

Economically, however, they may all depend on the same broader market theme.

If all three positions benefit from the same direction in the US dollar, interest-rate expectations or global investor sentiment, the trader may have created one large concentrated bet without realizing it.

This is why portfolio-level exposure matters.

Before adding another trade, ask:

  • Does this position increase an exposure I already have?
  • Would the same economic event negatively affect several positions?
  • Am I diversified, or have I simply expressed one idea through several instruments?

Risk management works at both the trade level and the portfolio level.

Volatility Changes the Meaning of Risk

A strategy that behaves comfortably during quiet market conditions may become much harder to manage during major economic announcements, unexpected political developments or sudden changes in market liquidity.

The same position size can therefore represent different practical levels of risk at different times.

When volatility rises, price movements often become larger and faster. Traders may need to reconsider whether their normal position size, stop distance or trading frequency still makes sense.

This is another reason rigid trading habits can be dangerous. Risk controls should reflect current market conditions rather than being applied mechanically.

The Risk/Reward Ratio Is Useful — But Not Enough

Risk/reward analysis compares the potential amount lost if a trade fails with the potential gain if it succeeds.

Consider two hypothetical trades:

Trade Potential Loss Potential Gain Risk/Reward
A $100 $100 1:1
B $100 $200 1:2
C $100 $300 1:3

At first glance, Trade C appears most attractive.

But this does not automatically make it the best trade. The probability of reaching the profit target also matters.

A strategy targeting three units of profit for every unit of risk may sound excellent, but not if the target is reached only very rarely. Conversely, a strategy with smaller targets may still work if its successful trades occur frequently enough.

Risk/reward should therefore be evaluated together with the historical behavior and logic of the trading strategy.

Keep a Trading Journal

One of the simplest risk-management tools requires no sophisticated software at all.

Record each trade.

Useful information includes:

  • instrument;
  • date and time;
  • entry and exit;
  • position size;
  • planned risk;
  • reason for entering;
  • result;
  • whether the original rules were followed;
  • and any emotional or impulsive decisions.

After dozens of trades, patterns often become easier to identify.

For example, a trader might discover that most losses come from trades entered immediately after another loss, from positions opened during major news events, or from increasing size after several winning trades.

Without records, these patterns can remain invisible.

Watch for the Psychological Side of Risk

Risk management is usually discussed as mathematics, but psychology is equally important.

A trader may have perfectly reasonable rules and still abandon them under pressure.

Common examples include:

  • increasing position size to recover a previous loss;
  • refusing to close a losing position;
  • moving a stop-loss because the trader “still believes” in the trade;
  • taking unnecessary trades because the market feels exciting;
  • becoming overconfident after several wins;
  • or abandoning a strategy after a small number of losses.

The solution is not to eliminate emotion. That is unrealistic.

Instead, traders can reduce the number of decisions that must be made under emotional pressure. Position size, invalidation level and maximum acceptable risk can all be determined before the trade begins.

Common Trading Risk Management Mistakes

Several mistakes appear repeatedly among inexperienced market participants.

1. Taking Larger Positions After Losses

Trying to recover money quickly can turn one manageable loss into a sequence of increasingly risky trades.

2. Using Maximum Available Leverage

A broker’s maximum permitted leverage is not a recommendation for how much exposure should be used.

3. Entering Without an Exit Plan

A trader who knows where to enter but has no clear point for admitting the idea was wrong has only half a strategy.

4. Moving Risk Limits During the Trade

Changing a stop simply because price is approaching it can dramatically increase the loss originally accepted.

5. Focusing Only on Individual Trades

Several seemingly small positions can create substantial combined exposure when they react to the same market factors.

6. Ignoring Trading Costs

Spreads, commissions and overnight financing can affect the economics of a strategy, particularly when trades are frequent or held for longer periods.

A Simple Pre-Trade Risk Checklist

Before placing a trade, a trader should be able to answer these questions:

  • Why am I entering this position?
  • Where is my analysis proven wrong?
  • What is the maximum planned loss?
  • Is the position size consistent with that loss?
  • What is the potential reward relative to the risk?
  • Are there major events that could increase volatility?
  • Do I already have similar market exposure?
  • Am I following my trading plan or reacting emotionally?

If several answers are unclear, waiting may be more rational than entering immediately.

Risk Management Is a Process, Not a Setting

There is no single risk-management formula that works for every trader, instrument or market environment.

A short-term currency trader faces different conditions from someone holding an index CFD for several days. A highly volatile instrument behaves differently from a relatively stable one. Account size, strategy, trading frequency and individual risk tolerance all influence the appropriate framework.

What remains consistent is the process:

identify the downside, define the exposure, plan the exit and only then consider the potential return.

That order matters.

Final Thoughts

Markets will always contain uncertainty. Traders cannot control economic announcements, price gaps, sudden volatility or whether the next trade becomes a winner.

They can, however, control how much exposure they take.

That is the central purpose of trading risk management.

A disciplined trader does not need to predict every market movement. Instead, the goal is to create a framework in which individual mistakes and losing trades remain manageable. Broker selection, trading costs, position sizing, leverage, diversification and emotional discipline all form part of that framework.

Ultimately, successful risk management is less about finding a clever formula and more about consistently answering one question before every trade:

If this idea is wrong, what happens next?

For traders who can answer that question before entering the market, uncertainty becomes something to manage rather than something to fear.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment or financial advice. Leveraged trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for every investor.

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