OPEC Keeps Production Quota Unchanged for October

By Adedapo Adesanya

A sub-group of nations in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) stuck with their plan to keep oil production quotas unchanged for next month.

The group of seven countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which held a monthly video conference on Sunday, will keep targets steady in October after a series of symbolic quota increases, OPEC said in a statement.

This development comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt oil ⁠exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting OPEC+’s influence over prices and market share.

Unlike in the past, the cartel’s supply decisions have had a limited impact on the market.

The decision is in line with its roadmap to hold targets flat to the end of the year.

In August, OPEC+ agreed on its production boost for September, completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. Despite the agreed production increases, the group still produces far below its targets because of the war.

OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts in place, covering most members of the 21-country group until the ⁠end of 2026.

However, before the organisation decides how to unwind the cuts and return production to the market, it needs to review members’ oil ⁠production capacity to set 2027.

Since March, the core OPEC+ arm has announced six oil output increases. Yet, because of the Hormuz blockade, most have remained largely on paper, with the decisions having little effect on oil prices, apart from in July during a brief US-Iran ceasefire that raised hopes Hormuz would reopen.