Economy
Stock Analysis: UBA Plc, Upward Revision to 2017F Estimates; BUY
In its recently released H1-17 results, UBA recorded a significant growth in gross earnings (+34.51% y/y), driven by impressive growth across income lines– interest income (+44.25%) and non-interest revenue (+16.01%).
Over H2, we believe the improved yields on interest earning assets (expanded 205 bps to 12.32% in H1-17) – from repricing of loans and elevated yields on investment securities – will remain robust.
Hence, for 2017F, we forecast 50 bps y/y expansion in asset yield to 12.15%, resulting in interest income growth of 22.18% y/y to N322.53 billion.
On NIR, we believe the gains on FX trading (due to fx related gains and derivative transactions) and growth in fixed income securities trading will persist for the rest of the year (albeit marginal over H2), and as a result, we forecast NIR growth of 24.90% y/y to N132.01 billion for 2017F.
Accordingly, we have raised our gross earnings growth forecast higher to 49.44% y/y (previously 30.28%) in 2017F to N470.50 billion.
On funding cost, we have reviewed our 2017F cost of funds estimate 43 bps higher to 4.11%, translating to an interest expense growth of 27.82% y/y to N126.25 billion. Our upward review is driven by the surge in interest charge on borrowings – a development we attribute to the bank’s recently issued USD500 million Eurobond at a yield of 7.875% and a range of bilateral facility secured during the year – and Fed Rates hikes impact on LIBOR linked borrowings.
Note that these drove 38 bps y/y rise in cost of funds to 3.75% in H1-17.
However, we believe the strong yields on interest earning assets will outweigh the expansion in funding cost, thus, we estimate net interest margin to advance 32 bps y/y to 7.02%.
In H1-17, loan loss provision (+104.25% q/q and 8.94% y/y) surged, resulting in 129 bps y/y uptick in cost of risk to 1.93% (NPL came in ahead of 2016 level at 4.20% in H1-17), above management’s 1.5% guidance for 2017F.
The expansion in cost of risk during the period stemmed from an additional N8.57 billion provision for specific credit loss impairment, which we believe relates to exposure to general commerce, manufacturing, oil & gas, and power.
At 4.2% in H1-17, NPL was well-ahead of 2016FY’s 3.90%. For 2017F, we estimate UBA’s NPL to increase to 4.80%, from 3.90% in FY-16, and cost of risk is expected to remain elevated over H2-17, to 2.00% by year end, translating to a credit loss provision of N32.04 billion in 2017F.
Despite the impact of both the change in the treatment of AMCOM levy (which resulted in a one-off charge on other opex) and the increases in personnel expenses and depreciation expense on total opex (37.35% y/y), efficiency measures still improved over H1-17 (supported by the significant growth in operating income), with cost to income ratio contracting 80 bps to 58.60%.
For the rest of the year, we believe cost will moderate across key lines, thus, we forecast 22.22% y/y growth in opex to N186.38 billion, translating to a 593 bps y/y contraction in cost to income ratio to 56.77%, while we expect operational leverage to rise to 5.1x, compared to 4.9x in FY-16.
Overall, we forecast PBT and PAT growth of 74.51% and 14.28% to N109.87 and N82.58 billion respectively, equating to 14.28% expansion in EPS (2017F: N2.28).
UBA’s FX related gains have been largely buoyed by its sizeable FCY position from the issuance of Eurobond and inflows from other FCY borrowings during the year. The balance sheet as at H1-17 reveals that FCY borrowings worth USD405.46 million (Citi Bank Syndicated Facility USD30.46 million, Africa Trade Finance Limited USD75 million and Credit Suisse Tranche A & B USD300 million) are due for maturity between August and December 2017.
As such, we believe PAT growth will be marginal over 2018-2019F, as FX related and revaluation gains taper and NIR contribution to gross earnings contract.
Following the upward adjustment to EPS, we raised our target price by 12.17% to N12.62 (previous: N11.25) and rolled forward our valuation to 2018.
Our current 12-month TP implies upside potential of 31.59% from current levels; consequently, we recommend a BUY on the stock.
UBA is currently trading at 2017F P/BVPS of 0.7x (below the peer average of 0.9x, but in line with the 5-year average of 0.7x) and 2017 FP/E of 4.5x (below the peer average of 5.5x, but above the 5-year average of 3.1x).
Economy
NECA, CPPE Laud CBN’s 0.50% Interest Rate Cut
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) and the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) have separately commended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
In reaction, NECA Director-General, Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, praised the decision in a statement, noting that the 50 basis-point cut is “a cautious but noteworthy signal” that authorities were responding to sustained pressures on businesses.
He said the marginal reduction might not immediately lower lending rates, but reflected “a gradual shift toward supporting growth without undermining price stability”.
According to him, the overall stance remained tight, with the Cash Reserve Ratio retained at 45 per cent and the liquidity ratio at 30 per cent.
He added that the asymmetric corridor around the MPR was also maintained, reinforcing a cautious monetary approach.
“With a substantial portion of deposits still sterilised, banks’ capacity to expand credit to the real sector may remain constrained in the near term,” he said.
Mr Oyerinde described the move as “a careful balancing act” aimed at moderating inflation without worsening pressures on businesses.
He noted that firms continued to grapple with high operating costs, exchange rate volatility and weakened consumer demand.
“Inflation, particularly in food, energy and transportation, remains a significant challenge to employers and households,” he said.
He stressed that the modest easing must be supported by coordinated fiscal and structural reforms to address supply-side constraints.
Such reforms, he said, should improve infrastructure and enhance productivity across key sectors of the economy.
Mr Oyerinde urged financial institutions to ensure the MPR reduction was gradually reflected in lending conditions for manufacturers and SMEs.
He affirmed that although the MPC had not fully relaxed its tightening stance, the rate cut signalled cautious optimism.
“Sustained improvements in inflation, exchange rate stability and investor confidence will determine scope for further easing that supports growth and employment,” he said.
On its part, the CPPE said the decision reflected improving macroeconomic fundamentals and a cautious shift from aggressive tightening.
The organisation noted that sustained disinflation, stronger external reserves, an improved trade balance and relative exchange-rate stability had created room for monetary easing.
It said the rate cut could boost investor confidence and support private-sector growth, but cautioned that weak monetary transmission might limit its impact on lending rates.
The CPPE identified high cash reserve requirements, elevated lending rates, government borrowing and structural banking costs as major constraints to effective transmission.
The group also stressed the need for fiscal consolidation, citing high public debt, persistent deficits and rising debt-service obligations as risks to macroeconomic stability.
According to the chief executive of CPPE, Mr Muda Yusuf, effective policy coordination and stronger transmission mechanisms were critical to unlocking investment and sustaining growth, lauding the CBN for what he described as a measured and data-driven policy adjustment.
The CPPE boss noted that the easing reflected strengthening macroeconomic performance, declining inflation, growing reserves, improved trade balance and enhanced foreign exchange stability.
Mr Yusuf added that for the benefits of monetary easing to be fully realised, authorities must strengthen transmission to ensure lower lending rates for the real sector and advance credible fiscal consolidation to safeguard stability.
He said that if supported by structural reforms and disciplined fiscal management, the current policy direction could unlock a stronger investment cycle and more durable economic growth.
Economy
NASD Index Falls 0.28% as Investors Lose N6.64bn
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended the negative start to the week by 0.28 per cent on Tuesday, February 24, with the market capitalisation down by N6.64 billion to close at N2.378 trillion versus Monday’s N2.384 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) falling by 11.1 points to 3,974.80 points from 3,985.90 points.
At the session, transaction value skyrocketed by 1,706.3 per cent to N1.2 billion from the previous day’s N61.8 million, as the transaction volume increased by 59.1 per cent to 11.6 million units from 7.3 million units, and the number of deals expanded by 23.1 per cent to 48 deals from the preceding session’s 39 deals.
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 33.7 million units exchanged for N2.0 billion, Okitipupa Plc was next with 6.2 million units traded for N1.1 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc occupied the third position with 121.0 million units valued at N474.9 million.
Resourcery Plc emerged as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.05 billion units worth N408.7 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with the sale of 121.0 million units for N474.9 million, and CSCS Plc with 33.7 million units worth N2.0 billion.
Yesterday, the market breadth was flat after the bourse finished with three price gainers and three price losers led by MRS Oil Plc, which shed N14.50 to close at N200.00 per share versus the previous day’s N214.50 per share, CSCS Plc depleted by N1.39 to N65.82 per unit from N67.21 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc depreciated by 1 Kobo to close at N3.30 per share versus Monday’s N3.31 per share.
The price gainers were led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which improved its value by N1.60 to close at N95.00 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N93.40 per unit, Afriland Property Plc gained 83 Kobo to sell at N18.00 per share versus N17.17 per share, and First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc advanced by 13 Kobo to N1.45 per unit from N1.32 per unit.
Economy
Nigerian Exchange Sheds 0.92%
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited depreciated by 0.92 per cent on Tuesday after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) slashed the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 per cent to 26.50 per cent at the end of its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for 2026.
Sell-offs mainly occurred in the consumer goods and insurance sectors, shedding 4.74 per cent and 1.31 per cent, respectively.
However, bargain-hunting remained in the others, with the industrial goods index gaining 1.92 per cent, the banking counter grew by 1.23 per cent, and the energy sector soared by 0.15 per cent.
When the bourse ended for the session, the All-Share Index (ASI) gave up 1,779.03 points to close at 194,484.52 points compared with the previous day’s 196,263.55 points, and the market capitalisation declined by N1.142 trillion to N124.827 trillion from N125.969 trillion.
DAAR Communications depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N2.25, Tantalizers also declined by 10.00 per cent to N4.86, BUA Foods shrank by 9.99 per cent to N760.60, Ellah Lakes slumped 9.96 per cent to N10.40, and Japaul lost 9.95 per cent to trade at N3.80.
Conversely, Jaiz Bank appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N12.76, Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank went up by 9.83 per cent to N19.00, FCMB gained 9.72 per cent to close at N13.55, Fortis Global Insurance chalked up 9.09 per cent to finish at 72 Kobo, and Sterling Holdco grew by 7.50 per cent to N8.60.
A total of 27 stocks ended on the gainers’ chart and 40 stocks finished on the losers’ table, indicating a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.
Yesterday, investors bought and sold 1.1 billion equities worth N53.4 billion in 72,218 deals compared with the 1.3 billion equities valued at N31.5 billion in 95,091 deals recorded a day earlier.
This showed that the value of transactions went up by 69.52 per cent, the volume of trades declined by 15.39 per cent, and a slip in the number of deals by 24.05 per cent.
During the session, Japaul was the most active stock with 102.4 million units worth N399.8 million, Access Holdings exchanged 97.9 million units valued at N2.6 billion, Fortis Global Insurance traded 75.2 million units for N54.1 million, Zenith Bank sold 67.6 million units valued at N6.2 billion, and FCMB transacted 46.4 million units worth N612.2 million.
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