Economy
After Recession: A Need for Policy Change?
We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to hold rates at the current levels, while the fiscal authority continues to implement policy measures to sustain growth. The MPC is scheduled to meet on September 25 and 26, 2017.
The current tight monetary policy is justified in order to curb the high inflation rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
At its July 2017 meeting, the MPC maintained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 14%, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points; Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 22.50% and 30% respectively.
In the international scene, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook, July 2017 edition, forecasts global economic growth at 3.5% in 2017. The IMF indicated that the risks around the global growth forecast are from monetary policy normalisation in some advanced economies, notably the U.S, anti-globalisation stance, and geopolitical tensions.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States (U.S) Federal Reserve (The Fed) maintained the Federal Funds Rate (The Fed Fund Rate) at its September 2017 meeting but signalled unwinding of balance sheet as from October 2017.
At the domestic level, the Q2, 2017 figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the GDP in Nigeria recorded a growth rate of 0.55%. The recovery in crude oil production and price and the introduction of the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange Window (I&E Window), increased the supply of foreign exchange, and helped to pull the economy out of recession.
Meanwhile, the accretion to the external reserves continued after the MPC meeting in July 2017. The 30-Day moving average external reserves increased by 3.21% to $31.83bn as at 31st August
2017, from $30.84bn as at 31st July 2017.
However, the value of the Naira recorded a mixed performance but has shown relative stability since the last MPC meeting in July 2017. The value of the Naira depreciated in the official market, while it closed unchanged in the parallel market. The premium between the inter-bank and parallel markets averaged about N61 between the last MPC meeting in July 2017 and September 15, 2017 from an average of N66 during the period between the MPC Meetings of May and July 2017.
The monetary aggregates as at July 2017 show that the annualised growth rate in money supply is below the target that the CBN sets for the year 2017. The broad money supply (M2) decreased by 5.08% to N22.20trn in July 2017, from N23.39trn in December 2016. This is lower than the CBN’s growth rate target of 10.29% for the year 2017.
The CBN has maintained tight monetary policy to curb high inflation rate and ensure FX stability.
Our forecast shows that the inflation rate will remain in the range of 15.55%-16.20% between September 2017 and December 2017.
This is based on the assumption that the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) does not increase the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Electricity Tariff. The forecast range is higher than the CBN’s target of 6%-9% and the growth retarding inflation benchmark of 12.5%.
The yields on NTBs decreased in August 2017, compared with the yields in July 2017. At the NTBs auction, average yield on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day NTB dropped. The yields on the FGN Bonds that we monitored closed higher in August 2017 when compared with the yields in the preceding month. We expect the yields on the fixed income securities to drop.
This is because of the stability in the FX market, plans of the FGN to refinance part of the local debt with foreign debt and the positive GDP growth rate expected going forward.
Looking at the developments both in the domestic and international markets, a hold in rates at this meeting will be appropriate in order to sustain the current growth rate in the economy. However, the MPC may adjust the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to signify easing.
Meanwhile, fiscal measures in the forms of tax relief and tariff adjustments are required to boost economic activities.
Economy
Naira Crashes to N1,464/$1 at Official Market, N1,485/$1 at Black Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was not a good day for the Nigerian Naira at the two major foreign exchange (FX) market on Friday as it suffered a heavy loss against the United States Dollar at the close of transactions.
In the black market segment, the Naira weakened against its American counterpart yesterday by N10 to quote at N1,485/$1, in contrast to the N1,475/$1 it was traded a day earlier, and at the GTBank forex counter, it depreciated by N2 to settle at N1,467/$1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,465/$1.
In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) window, which is also the official market, the nation’s legal tender crashed against the greenback by N6.65 or 0.46 per cent to close at N1,464.49/$1 compared with the preceding session’s rate of N1,457.84/$1.
In the same vein, the local currency tumbled against the Euro in the spot market by N2.25 to sell for N1,714.63/€1 compared with the previous day’s N1,712.38/€1, but appreciated against the Pound Sterling by 73 Kobo to finish at N1,957.30/£1 compared with the N1,958.03/£1 it was traded in the preceding session.
The market continues to face seasonal pressure even as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is still conducting FX intervention sales, which have significantly reduced but not remove pressure from the Naira. Also, there seems to be reduced supply from exporters, foreign portfolio investors and non-bank corporate inflows.
President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented the government’s N58.47 trillion budget plan aimed at consolidating economic reforms and boosting growth.
The budget is based on a projected crude oil price of $64.85 a barrel and includes a target oil output of 1.84 million barrels a day. It also projects an exchange rate of N1,400 to the Dollar.
President Tinubu said inflation had plunged to an annual rate of 14.45 per cent in November from 24.23 per cent in March, while foreign reserves had surged to a seven-year high of $47 billion.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was dominated by the bulls but it continues to face increased pressure after million in liquidations in previous session over accelerating declines, with Dogecoin (DOGE) recovering 4.2 per cent to trade at $0.1309.
Further, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 3.9 per cent to $1.90, Cardano (ADA) rose by 3.5 per cent to $0.3728, Solana (SOL) jumped by 3.4 per cent to $126.23, Ethereum (ETH) climbed by 2.9 per cent to $2,982.42, Binance Coin (BNB) gained 2.0 per cent to sell for $853.06, Bitcoin (BTC) improved by 1.7 per cent to $88,281.21, and Litecoin (LTC) soared by 1.2 per cent to $76.50, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
Economy
Crude Oil Prices Climb as US Blocks Venezuelan Tankers
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices edged up on possible disruptions from a US blockade of Venezuelan tankers as the market waits for news about a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Brent futures rose 65 cents or 1.1 per cent to $60.47 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by 51 cents or 0.9 per cent to $56.66 per barrel. Both Brent and WTI were down about 1 per cent this week after both crude benchmarks fell about 4 per cent last week.
US President Donald Trump said he was leaving the possibility of war with Venezuela on the table, noting that there would be additional seizures of oil tankers near Venezuelan waters after the US seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela last week.
The American President this week ordered a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, in the US’ latest move to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s government, targeting its main source of income. The pressure campaign on President Maduro has included a ramped-up military presence in the region and more than two dozen military strikes on vessels in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea near Venezuela, which have killed at least 90 people.
President Trump has also previously said that US land strikes on the South American country will soon start.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday said that the US is not concerned about an escalation with Russia when it comes to Venezuela, as the Trump administration builds up military forces in the Caribbean.
This development comes as President Trump seeks an end to the unending war between Ukraine and Russia that is heading towards its fourth year.
European Union leaders decided on Friday to borrow cash to loan 90 billion Euros to Ukraine to fund its defense against Russia for the next two years as Russian President Vladimir Putin offered no compromise on Friday on his terms for ending the war in Ukraine and accused the European Union of attempting “daylight robbery” of Russian assets.
Ukraine, meanwhile, struck a Russian “shadow fleet” oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea with aerial drones for the first time.
Earlier this week, the US and Ukraine both signaled progress in negotiations about a peace agreement during talks in German capital city of Berlin. The US is now reportedly offering Ukraine security guarantees modeled on NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense pledge.
Economy
Tinubu Presents N58.47trn Budget for 2026 to National Assembly
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented a budget proposal of N58.47 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year titled Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity to a joint session of the National Assembly, with capital recurrent (non‑debt) expenditure standing at 15.25 trillion, and the capital expenditure at N26.08 trillion, while the crude oil benchmark was pegged at $64.85 per barrel.
Business Post reports that the Brent crude grade currently trades around $60 per barrel. It is also expected to trade at that level or lower next year over worries about oil glut.
At the budget presentation today, Mr Tinubu said the expected total revenue for the year is N34.33 trillion, and the proposal is anchored on a crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US Dollar.
In terms of sectoral allocation, defence and security took the lion’s share with N5.41 trillion, followed by infrastructure at N3.56 trillion, education received N3.52 trillion, while health received N2.48 trillion.
Addressing the lawmakers, the President described the budget proposal as not “just accounting lines”.
“They are a statement of national priorities,” the president told the gathering. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value‑for‑money spending.”
The presentation came at a time of heightened insecurity in parts of the country, with mass abductions and other crimes making headlines.
Outlining his government’s plan to address the challenge, President Tinubu reminded the gathering that security “remains the foundation of development”.
He said some of the measures in place to tame insecurity include the modernisation of the Armed Forces, intelligence‑driven policing and joint operations, border security, and technology‑enabled surveillance and community‑based peacebuilding and conflict prevention.
“We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes—because security spending must deliver security results,” the president said.
“To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies by boosting personnel and procuring cutting-edge platforms and other hardware,” he added.
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