Economy
After Recession: A Need for Policy Change?
We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to hold rates at the current levels, while the fiscal authority continues to implement policy measures to sustain growth. The MPC is scheduled to meet on September 25 and 26, 2017.
The current tight monetary policy is justified in order to curb the high inflation rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
At its July 2017 meeting, the MPC maintained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 14%, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points; Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 22.50% and 30% respectively.
In the international scene, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook, July 2017 edition, forecasts global economic growth at 3.5% in 2017. The IMF indicated that the risks around the global growth forecast are from monetary policy normalisation in some advanced economies, notably the U.S, anti-globalisation stance, and geopolitical tensions.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States (U.S) Federal Reserve (The Fed) maintained the Federal Funds Rate (The Fed Fund Rate) at its September 2017 meeting but signalled unwinding of balance sheet as from October 2017.
At the domestic level, the Q2, 2017 figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the GDP in Nigeria recorded a growth rate of 0.55%. The recovery in crude oil production and price and the introduction of the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange Window (I&E Window), increased the supply of foreign exchange, and helped to pull the economy out of recession.
Meanwhile, the accretion to the external reserves continued after the MPC meeting in July 2017. The 30-Day moving average external reserves increased by 3.21% to $31.83bn as at 31st August
2017, from $30.84bn as at 31st July 2017.
However, the value of the Naira recorded a mixed performance but has shown relative stability since the last MPC meeting in July 2017. The value of the Naira depreciated in the official market, while it closed unchanged in the parallel market. The premium between the inter-bank and parallel markets averaged about N61 between the last MPC meeting in July 2017 and September 15, 2017 from an average of N66 during the period between the MPC Meetings of May and July 2017.
The monetary aggregates as at July 2017 show that the annualised growth rate in money supply is below the target that the CBN sets for the year 2017. The broad money supply (M2) decreased by 5.08% to N22.20trn in July 2017, from N23.39trn in December 2016. This is lower than the CBN’s growth rate target of 10.29% for the year 2017.
The CBN has maintained tight monetary policy to curb high inflation rate and ensure FX stability.
Our forecast shows that the inflation rate will remain in the range of 15.55%-16.20% between September 2017 and December 2017.
This is based on the assumption that the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) does not increase the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Electricity Tariff. The forecast range is higher than the CBN’s target of 6%-9% and the growth retarding inflation benchmark of 12.5%.
The yields on NTBs decreased in August 2017, compared with the yields in July 2017. At the NTBs auction, average yield on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day NTB dropped. The yields on the FGN Bonds that we monitored closed higher in August 2017 when compared with the yields in the preceding month. We expect the yields on the fixed income securities to drop.
This is because of the stability in the FX market, plans of the FGN to refinance part of the local debt with foreign debt and the positive GDP growth rate expected going forward.
Looking at the developments both in the domestic and international markets, a hold in rates at this meeting will be appropriate in order to sustain the current growth rate in the economy. However, the MPC may adjust the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to signify easing.
Meanwhile, fiscal measures in the forms of tax relief and tariff adjustments are required to boost economic activities.
Economy
NASD OTC Exchange Inches Up 0.03% as CSCS Outshines Four Price Decliners
By Adedapo Adesanya
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc bested four price decliners on the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Monday, April 27. The alternative stock market opened the week bullish during the session with a 0.03 per cent uptick.
According to data, the security depository company added N2.61 to its share price to close at N76.26 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N78.87 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation of the platform increased by N820 million to N2.425 trillion from N2.424 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) gained 1.38 points to finish at 4,053.97 points compared with the 4,052.58 points it ended last Friday.
The four price losers were led by NASD Plc, which slumped by N3.80 to sell at N34.70 per share versus N38.50 per share. FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc fell by N1.45 to N98.10 per unit from N99.55 per unit, Food Concepts Plc slid by 27 Kobo to N2.43 per share from N2.70 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc dipped by 9 Kobo to N2.91 per unit from N3.00 per unit.
The value of securities transacted by market participants went down by 82.0 per cent to N7.4 million from N41.3 million units, the volume of securities declined by 28.5 per cent to 319,831 units from 447,403 units, and the number of deals dropped by 34.1 per cent to 29 deals from 44 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.6 million units sold for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units exchanged for N1.9 billion.
Also, GNI Plc was the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with a turnover of 400 million units worth N1.2 billion.
Economy
Naira Opens Week Weaker at N1,364/$ at NAFEX After N5.80 Loss
By Adedapo Adesanya
The first trading day of the week in the currency market was bearish for the Naira in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, April 27.
Yesterday, it lost N5.80 or 0.43 per cent against the United States Dollar to trade at N1,364.24/$1, in contrast to the N1,358.44/$1 it was traded last Friday.
In the same vein, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N13.70 to close at N1,847.72/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,834.02/£1, and slumped against the Euro by N11.56 to sell at N1,602.29/€1 versus N1,590.73/€1.
Also, the Nigerian Naira tumbled against the greenback during the trading day by N5 to quote at N1,385/$1 compared with the previous rate of N1,380/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it traded flat at N1,370/$1.
The poor performance of the domestic currency could be attributed to liquidity shortage at the official currency market on Monday, which came amid surging demand for international payments. At $76.50 million, interbank liquidity printed higher across 79 deals, up from the $43.572 million reported on Friday.
Nigeria’s gross external reserves declined to $48.45 billion amid a month-long decline in inflows, amid uncertainties in the global commodity market. The depletion of foreign reserves could be partly attributed to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s intervention in the FX market.
The market remains perturbed by persistent concerns over liquidity constraints, policy transparency, and weakening confidence in Nigeria’s FX market, while boosters, including oil prices, continue to look rocky due to stalled discussions and unclear ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran.
A look at the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has been rejected near $79,000 three times in eight sessions, leaving the level as the de facto ceiling of its current trading range even as major cryptocurrencies trade lower over the past day. It lost 0.9 per cent to sell at $77,003.61.
Analysts say that upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decisions and top tech firms’ earnings this week could provide the catalyst to push bitcoin decisively above $80,000.
The market also continued to weigh Iran’s interim deal proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which failed to advance over the weekend. The White House said US officials were discussing the latest Iranian proposal but maintained “red lines” on any deal to end the eight-week war.
Solana (SOL) dropped 1.8 per cent to $84.25, Ripple (XRP) went down by 1.6 per cent to $1.39, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.3 per cent to $2,290.00, Binance Coin (BNB) declined by 0.5 per cent to $625.18, and Cardano (ADA) fell by 0.2 per cent to $0.2480.
However, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 2.0 per cent to $0.1002, and TRON (TRX) appreciated by 0.2 per cent to $0.3242, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
Economy
NASCON Targets Deeper Cost Optimisation, Accelerated Digital Transformation, Others
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
One of the leading salt makers in Nigeria, NASCON Allied Industries Plc, has set its eyes on some strategies aimed to deliver more value to shareholders.
The chief executive of the company, Mrs Aderemi Saka, said efforts are being made to surpass the performance of last year.
In the 2025 financial year, the organisation recorded a 27 per cent growth in revenue, while post-tax profit grew by over 100 per cent to N33.5 billion, with the earnings per share (EPS) expanding by 115 per cent to N12.41 from N5.77 Kobo in the previous year.
The impressive performance, attributed to a clear strategic vision, disciplined execution and sustained focus on cost-saving initiatives across production, logistics and fleet management, resulted in a 200 per cent increase in dividend payout to shareholders to N6 per share.
Mrs Saka, at the firm’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) in Lagos, said the strategic priorities for the coming year include deeper cost optimisation, expanded market penetration, strengthened energy diversification and sustainability initiatives, as well as accelerated digital transformation and process automation.
Earlier, the chairman of NASCON, Mr Olakunle Alake, informed shareholders that the achievements for last year were due to improved operational efficiency, strict cost management and the dedication of the company’s workforce.
“The operating environment in 2025 was characterised by economic volatility, persistent inflation and structural changes across key sectors. Yet, NASCON remained resilient and strategically focused, delivering outstanding value to shareholders,” Mr Alake said.
He noted that operational sustainability remains a core pillar of the organisation’s strategy, stressing that during the year, NASCON introduced Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) trucks into its logistics fleet to reduce fuel costs and minimise exposure to diesel price volatility.
In addition, the company’s state-of-the-art salt refinery, its largest production facility, now runs entirely on natural gas, significantly boosting efficiency while reinforcing NASCON’s commitment to environmental sustainability.
A director in the organisation, Mrs Tonya Lawani, emphasised that the firm remains firmly committed to the principles that have driven its excellent performance, noting that NASCON approaches the new financial year from a position of strength, with further opportunities for growth and improvement.
Speaking on behalf of shareholders, Mr Faruk Umar expressed strong confidence in the company’s trajectory, citing NASCON’s rising share price, which recently crossed the N100 mark, and projecting further appreciation.
He commended the quality of the Board and management team, noting that strong leadership and recent executive appointments have positioned the entity to deliver even greater value to all stakeholders.
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