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CBN May Change Monetary Policy Stance—FSDH

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cbn benchmark interest rates

By Dipo Olowookere

According to FSDH Research, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may soon change its monetary policy stance if it follows the opinion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2017 edition, noted that it expects the inflation rate in Nigeria in 2017 and 2018 to remain elevated at double-digit levels. This is based on its assumption of the persistent effects of past inflationary shocks coming from sharp currency depreciations (including the parallel market exchange rate), higher electricity and fuel prices, and an accommodative monetary policy going forward.

The Fund expects an average inflation rate of 16.3% in 2017 and 14.8% in 2018. At the moment, the CBN adopts a restrictive monetary policy in order to curb the high inflation rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

The inflation rate in Nigeria declined for seven consecutive months to stand at 16.01% in August 2017.

FSDH Research forecasts that it will drop marginally to 15.96% in September 2017.

The IMF projects a growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.8% and 1.9% in Nigeria in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The growth is based on improved oil production and a strengthened agricultural sector.

The IMF expects an average Real GDP growth of 1.6% between 2017 and 2021 while it expects an average population growth of 2.75% between the periods. The GDP growth will not be sufficient to improve the wellbeing of the populace.

According to the IMF, the medium term risks to growth in Nigeria include concerns about policy implementation, market segmentation in the foreign exchange (FX) market and banking system fragilities.

The Fund also predicts a 42% increase in public debt from N18.06trn in 2016 to N25.59trn in 2017 and a further increase to N54.96trn in 2021.

The faster growth in public debt than the growth in GDP (at current prices) will result in a consistent increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio between 2017 and 2021.

According to the IMF, the public debt-to-GDP ratio will increase to 25% in 2021 from 18% in 2016.

FSDH Research, in its Weekly Insights, said although this is below the target of 40% the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) sets for Nigeria, the burden of the interest payments on the loan may retard Nigeria’s growth potential except there are concentrated efforts to grow revenue.

On the global scene, the global upswing in economic activities that started in the second half of 2016 continues to strengthen. The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018.

Notable increases in investments, trade and industrial production, as well as strengthening business and consumers’ confidence should support the global growth. The IMF identified the medium term risks to global growth to include a more rapid and sizeable tightening of global financial conditions; financial turmoil in emerging market economies; and geopolitical tensions.

The IMF expects oil prices (a simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil) to average US$50.3 per barrel in 2017, an increase from the US$43 per barrel in 2016. The expected increases in global activity and higher oil prices will have a positive effect on the Nigerian economy going forward.

Although FSDH Research believes the IMF growth forecast for the Nigerian economy is conservative, the FGN must intensify efforts to implement policies that will stimulate investments in the Nigerian economy. This is necessary to accelerate inclusive growth.

Friendly policies in agro-allied industries, agriculture, telecommunications, power, solid minerals, real estate and manufacturing are important to jumpstart the economy.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Tinubu to Present 2025 Budget of N47.9trn to NASS December 17

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2024 Budget Presentation Speech

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

On Tuesday, December 17, 2024, President Bola Tinubu will present the 2025 budget to a joint session of the National Assembly.

The size of the 2025 Appropriation Bill is about N47.9 trillion and would be presented to the parliament for approval.

Speaking at the plenary on Thursday, December 12, 2024, the President of the Senate, Mr Godswill Akpabio, said the presentation by Mr Tinubu would be at the chamber of the House of Representatives.

However, it is not certain if the lawmakers will pass the budget before December 31 to allow for a recent budget cycle of January to December.

Recall that on December 3, the senate approved the Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) for 2025 to 2027.

This was after the President presented this the National Assembly on November 19 ahead of the consideration of the 2025 budget proposal.

In the MTEF/FSP, the government said it planned to borrow about N9.22 trillion from local and foreign sources to finance the budget deficit.

It pegged the crude oil benchmark at $75 per barrel and a daily oil production of 2.06 million barrels at an exchange rate of N1,400 to $1, and a targeted gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 6.4 percent.

At the plenary today, Mr Akpabio informed his colleagues that, “The President has made his intention known to the National Assembly to present the 2025 budget to the joint session of the National Assembly on December 17, 2024.”

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Economy

Nigeria Adds 150,000 b/d Crude Production in November 2024

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria added 150,000 barrels per day to its crude production in November 2024 as it continues to pursue an ambitious 2 million barrels per day target.

According to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s oil production rose to 1.48 million barrels per day in November, up from 1.33 million barrels per day the previous month.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC revealed that at 1.48 million barrels per day, it is the continent’s leading oil producer, surpassing Algeria’s 908,000 barrels per day and Congo’s 268,000 barrels per day.

Business Post reports that OPEC doesn’t account for condensates, which Nigeria’s accounts for in its broader 2 million barrels per day target.

Despite the surge in production levels, Nigeria is still under producing its 1.5 million barrels per day output quota under a deal involving OPEC and 10 other producers known as OPEC+.

OPEC said it relied on primary data gotten through direct communication, noting that secondary sources reported 1.417 million barrels per day as Nigeria’s crude production in November — up from 1.4 million barrels per day in October.

The data also shows that OPEC’s total oil production among its 12 members rose by 104,000 barrels per day in the month under review.

According to secondary sources, the total of the 12 OPEC countries’ crude oil production averaged 26.66 million barrels per day in November 2024.

“Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Iran, and Nigeria, while production in Iraq, Venezuela, and Kuwait decreased”, OPEC said.

“At the same time, total non-OPEC DoC crude oil production averaged 14.01 mb/d in November 2024, which is 219 tb/d higher, m-o-m. Crude oil output increased mainly in Kazakhstan and Malaysia,” the organisation added.

In a related development, OPEC trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts for the fifth time this year.

Now, the cartel expects the world’s oil demand growth at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previously 1.82 million barrels per day.

For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, a 900,000 barrels per day cut from the previously expected 1.54 million barrels per day.

On the changes, OPEC says that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.

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Economy

Afriland Properties, Geo-Fluids Shrink OTC Securities Exchange by 0.06%

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Geo-Fluids

By Adedapo Adesanya

The duo of Afriland Properties Plc and Geo-Fluids Plc crashed the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by a marginal 0.06 per cent on Wednesday, December 11 due to profit-taking activities.

The OTC securities exchange experienced a downfall at midweek despite UBN Property Plc posting a price appreciation of 17 Kobo to close at N1.96 per share, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing price of N1.79.

Business Post reports that Afriland Properties Plc slid by N1.14 to finish at N15.80 per unit versus the preceding day’s N16.94 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc declined by 1 Kobo to trade at N3.92 per share compared with the N3.93 it ended a day earlier.

At the close of transactions, the market capitalisation of the bourse, which measures the total value of securities on the platform, shrank by N650 million to finish at N1.055 trillion compared with the previous day’s N1.056 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went down by 1.86 points to wrap the session at 3,012.50 points compared with 3,014.36 points recorded in the previous session.

The alternative stock market was busy yesterday as the volume of securities traded by investors soared by 146.9 per cent to 5.9 million units from 2.4 million units, as the value of shares transacted by the market participants jumped by 360.9 per cent to N22.5 million from N4.9 million, and the number of deals increased by 50 per cent to 21 deals from 14 deals.

When the bourse closed for the day, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units valued at N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units worth N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 million.

Also, Aradel Holdings Plc, which is now listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited after its exit from NASD, remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units sold for N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 billion.

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