Economy
Addressing Problem of Weak Revenue Generation in Nigeria
The 2018-2020 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) that the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) released on 20 October, 2017 will focus on some areas which we think are critical in raising the revenue generating capacity of the Nigerian economy.
The MTEF/FSP forms the basis on which the FGN’s yearly budget is developed. The focus of the 2018-2020 MTEF/FSP is to achieve the following: broaden revenue receipts by identifying and plugging revenue leakages; improve the efficiency and quality of capital spending; place greater emphasis on critical infrastructure; rationalise recurrent expenditure; and fiscal consolidation to maintain the fiscal deficit below 3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
FSDH Research’s analysis of the data that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released shows that Nigeria recorded the lowest revenue to GDP ratio (at 11%) between 2010 and 2016 among some selected countries.
Some of the reasons for the low performance are: revenue leakages; weak infrastructure and institutions; inadequate structures to unlock revenue from agriculture, which is the largest contributor to the country’s GDP; and overreliance on one product (oil) as the source of revenue.
Some of the effects of this situation are widespread poverty and income inequality; and unsustainably high debt service to revenue.
Thus, concerted polices and efforts are required to address these challenges in order to develop the Nigerian economy.
The MTEF projects a benchmark crude oil price of US$45 per barrel for 2018 (US$44.5 in 2017 budget); oil production estimate of 2.3mbd (2.2mbd in 2017); and an average exchange rate of N305/US$ same as in 2017.
It projects a GDP growth rate at 3.5% in 2018 in line with the projection of FSDH Research but higher than the projection of IMF at 1.9%.
The MTEF expects inflation rate to end the year 2018 at 12.42% lower than 15.74% for 2017. Based on these assumptions, estimated aggregate revenue for the FGN for 2018 is N5.65trn, 11% higher than N5.08trn approved in the 2017 budget.
The oil revenue is projected to contribute N2.44trn. Non-oil revenues (Companies Income Tax, Value Added Tax, Customs and Excise duties, and Federation Account Levies) are estimated at N1.39trn; Independent Revenue: N847.95bn; Recoveries: N512.44bn; and Others (including mining): N459.66bn.
The proposed expenditure for 2018 is N8.60trn, 15.59% increase over 2017 of N7.44trn. Adjusting the proposed expenditure by the projected inflation rate to end the year, it represents a marginal growth in real term.
The aggregate expenditure comprises: Statutory Transfers: N451.46bn; Debt Service: N2.03trn; Sinking Fund: N220bn; Recurrent Expenditure: N3.17trn; Special Intervention Programme: N350bn and Capital Expenditure of N2.28trn.
This fiscal plan will result in a deficit of N2.95trn for 2018, which is about 2.61% of GDP.
FSDH Research notes that the expected average oil production is aggressive, while the expected average exchange rate is conservative.
In addition, the expected capital expenditure of about N7.22trn between 2018 and 2020 is not sufficient to lift the economy from the current infrastructure deficiency.
FSDH Research reiterates that a well functional infrastructure is critical for the economy to generate revenue and since government is constrained by funds to address this, it is imperative to develop other constructive and innovative ways to fund the infrastructure. The rough estimate of the infrastructure expenditure gap in Nigeria at the moment is about N30trn.
Economy
Again, OPEC Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Forecasts
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts.
The bloc made this in its latest monthly oil market report for December 2024.
The 2024 world oil demand growth forecast is now put at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previous 1.82 million barrels per day.
For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, which is 900,000 barrels per day lower than the 1.54 million barrels per day earlier quoted.
On the changes, the group said that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.
The oil cartel had kept the 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a view it had first taken in July 2023.
OPEC and its wider group of allies known as OPEC+ earlier this month delayed its plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.
Eight OPEC+ member countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – decided to extend additional crude oil production cuts adopted in April 2023 and November 2023, due to weak demand and booming production outside the group.
In April 2023, these OPEC+ countries decided to reduce their oil production by over 1.65 million barrels per day as of May 2023 until the end of 2023. These production cuts were later extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended until the end of December 2026.
In addition, in November 2023, these producers had agreed to voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, in order to support prices and stabilise the market.
These additional production cuts were extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended to the end of March 2025; they will then be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2026.
Members have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.
They are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, or about 5.7 per cent of global demand. Russia also announced plans to reduce its production by an extra 471,000 barrels per day in June 2024.
Economy
Aradel Holdings Acquires Equity Stake in Chappal Energies
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A minority equity stake in Chappal Energies Mauritius Limited has been acquired by a Nigerian energy firm, Aradel Holdings Plc.
This deal came a few days after Chappal Energies purchased a 53.85 per cent equity stake in Equinor Nigeria Energy Company Limited (ENEC).
Chappal Energies went into the deal with Equinor to take part in the oil and gas lease OML 128, including the unitised 20.21 per cent stake in the Agbami oil field, operated by Chevron.
Since production started in 2008, the Agbami field has produced more than one billion barrels of oil, creating value for Nigerian society and various stakeholders.
As part of the deal, Chappal will assume the operatorship of OML 129, which includes several significant prospects and undeveloped discoveries (Nnwa, Bilah and Sehki).
The Nnwa discovery is part of the giant Nnwa-Doro field, a major gas resource with significant potential to deliver value for Nigeria.
In a separate transaction, on July 17, 2024, Chappal and Total Energies sealed an SPA for the acquisition by Chappal of 10 per cent of the SPDC JV.
The relevant parties to this transaction are working towards closing out this transaction and Ministerial Approval and NNPC consent to accede to the Joint Operating Agreement have been obtained.
“This acquisition is in line with diversifying our asset base, deepening our gas competencies and gaining access to offshore basins using low-risk approaches.
“We recognise the strategic role of gas in Nigeria’s energy future and are happy to expand our equity holding in this critical resource.
“We are committed to the cause of developing the significant value inherent in the assets, which will be extremely beneficial to the country.
“Aradel hopes to bring its proven execution competencies to bear in supporting Chappal’s development of these opportunities,” the chief executive of Aradel Holdings, Mr Adegbite Falade, stated.
Economy
Afriland Properties Lifts NASD OTC Securities Exchange by 0.04%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Afriland Properties Plc helped the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange record a 0.04 per cent gain on Tuesday, December 10 as the share price of the property investment rose by 34 Kobo to N16.94 per unit from the preceding day’s N16.60 per unit.
As a result of this, the market capitalisation of the bourse went up by N380 million to remain relatively unchanged at N1.056 trillion like the previous trading day.
But the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) closed higher at 3,014.36 points after it recorded an addition of 1.09 points to Monday’s closing value of 3,013.27 points.
The NASD OTC securities exchange recorded a price loser and it was Geo-Fluids Plc, which went down by 2 Kobo to close at N3.93 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N3.95 per share.
During the trading session, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors increased by 95.8 per cent to 2.4 million units from the 1.2 million securities traded in the preceding session.
However, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 3.7 per cent to N4.9 million from the N5.07 million recorded a day earlier, as the number of deals surged by 27.3 per cent to 14 deals from 11 deals.
Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.
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