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Economy

Addressing Problem of Weak Revenue Generation in Nigeria

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edo Revenue Collection

By FSDH Research

The 2018-2020 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) that the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) released on 20 October, 2017 will focus on some areas which we think are critical in raising the revenue generating capacity of the Nigerian economy.

The MTEF/FSP forms the basis on which the FGN’s yearly budget is developed. The focus of the 2018-2020 MTEF/FSP is to achieve the following: broaden revenue receipts by identifying and plugging revenue leakages; improve the efficiency and quality of capital spending; place greater emphasis on critical infrastructure; rationalise recurrent expenditure; and fiscal consolidation to maintain the fiscal deficit below 3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

FSDH Research’s analysis of the data that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released shows that Nigeria recorded the lowest revenue to GDP ratio (at 11%) between 2010 and 2016 among some selected countries.

Some of the reasons for the low performance are: revenue leakages; weak infrastructure and institutions; inadequate structures to unlock revenue from agriculture, which is the largest contributor to the country’s GDP; and overreliance on one product (oil) as the source of revenue.

Some of the effects of this situation are widespread poverty and income inequality; and unsustainably high debt service to revenue.

Thus, concerted polices and efforts are required to address these challenges in order to develop the Nigerian economy.

The MTEF projects a benchmark crude oil price of US$45 per barrel for 2018 (US$44.5 in 2017 budget); oil production estimate of 2.3mbd (2.2mbd in 2017); and an average exchange rate of N305/US$ same as in 2017.

It projects a GDP growth rate at 3.5% in 2018 in line with the projection of FSDH Research but higher than the projection of IMF at 1.9%.

The MTEF expects inflation rate to end the year 2018 at 12.42% lower than 15.74% for 2017. Based on these assumptions, estimated aggregate revenue for the FGN for 2018 is N5.65trn, 11% higher than N5.08trn approved in the 2017 budget.

The oil revenue is projected to contribute N2.44trn. Non-oil revenues (Companies Income Tax, Value Added Tax, Customs and Excise duties, and Federation Account Levies) are estimated at N1.39trn; Independent Revenue: N847.95bn; Recoveries: N512.44bn; and Others (including mining): N459.66bn.

The proposed expenditure for 2018 is N8.60trn, 15.59% increase over 2017 of N7.44trn. Adjusting the proposed expenditure by the projected inflation rate to end the year, it represents a marginal growth in real term.

The aggregate expenditure comprises: Statutory Transfers: N451.46bn; Debt Service: N2.03trn; Sinking Fund: N220bn; Recurrent Expenditure: N3.17trn; Special Intervention Programme: N350bn and Capital Expenditure of N2.28trn.

This fiscal plan will result in a deficit of N2.95trn for 2018, which is about 2.61% of GDP.

FSDH Research notes that the expected average oil production is aggressive, while the expected average exchange rate is conservative.

In addition, the expected capital expenditure of about N7.22trn between 2018 and 2020 is not sufficient to lift the economy from the current infrastructure deficiency.

FSDH Research reiterates that a well functional infrastructure is critical for the economy to generate revenue and since government is constrained by funds to address this, it is imperative to develop other constructive and innovative ways to fund the infrastructure. The rough estimate of the infrastructure expenditure gap in Nigeria at the moment is about N30trn.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

LCCI Raises Eyebrow Over N15.52trn Debt Servicing Plan in 2026 Budget

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has noted that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing in the 2026 budget remains a significant fiscal burden.

LCCI Director-General, Mrs Chinyere Almona, said this on Tuesday in Lagos via a statement in reaction to the nation’s 2026 budget of N58.18 trillion, hinging the success of the 2026 budget on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

She noted that the budget was a timely shift from macroeconomic stabilisation to growth acceleration, reflecting growing confidence in the economy.

She lauded its emphasis on production-oriented spending, with capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion, representing 45 per cent of total outlays, and significantly outweighing non-debt recurrent expenditure of N15.25 trillion.

According to Mrs Almona, this composition supports infrastructure development, industrial expansion, and productivity growth.

However, she explained that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing underscored the need for stricter borrowing discipline, enhanced revenue efficiency, and expanded public-private partnerships to safeguard investments that promote growth.

She added that a further review of the 2026 budget revealed relatively optimistic macroeconomic assumptions that may pose fiscal risks.

“The oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, although lower than the $75.00 benchmark in the 2025 budget, appears optimistic when compared with the 2025 average price of about $69.60 per barrel and current prices around $60 per barrel.

“This raises downside risks to oil revenue, especially since 35.6 per cent of the total projected revenue is expected to come from oil receipts.

“Similarly, the oil production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day is significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.49 million barrels per day.

“Achieving this may be challenging without substantial improvements in security, infrastructure integrity, and sector investment,” she said.

Mrs Almona said the exchange rate assumption of N1,512 to the Dollar, compared with N1,500 in the 2025 budget and about N1,446 per Dollar at the end of November, suggests expectations of a mild depreciation.

She said while this may support Naira-denominated revenue, it also increases the cost of imports, debt servicing, and inflation management, with broader macroeconomic implications.

The LCCI DG added that the inflation projection of 16.5 per cent in 2026, up from 15.8 per cent in the 2025 budget and a current rate of about 14.45 per cent, appeared optimistic, particularly in a pre-election year.

She also expressed concern about Nigeria’s historically weak budget implementation capacity, likely to be further strained by the combined operation of multiple budget cycles within a single year.

Looking ahead, Mrs Almona identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and human capital development as key drivers of growth in 2026.

She said that unlocking these sectors would require decisive execution—scaling irrigation and agro-value chains, reducing power and logistics costs for manufacturers, and aligning education and skills development with private-sector needs.

The LCCI head stressed the need to resolve issues surrounding the Naira for crude, increase the supply of oil to local refineries to boost local refining capacity and conserve the substantial foreign exchange used for fuel imports.

“Overall, the 2026 Budget presents a credible opportunity for Nigeria to transition from recovery to expansion.

“Its success will depend less on the size of allocations and more on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

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Economy

Customs Street Chalks up 0.12% on Santa Claus Rally

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Customs Street Nigerian Stock Exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited witnessed Santa Claus rally on Wednesday after it closed higher by 0.12 per cent.

Strong demand for Nigerian stocks lifted the All-Share Index (ASI) by 185.70 points during the pre-Christmas trading session to 153,539.83 points from 153,354.13 points.

In the same vein, the market capitalisation expanded at midweek by N118 billion to N97.890 trillion from the preceding day’s N97.772 trillion.

Investor sentiment on Customs Street remained bullish after closing with 36 appreciating equities and 22 depreciating equities, indicating a positive market breadth index.

Guinness Nigeria chalked up 9.98 per cent to trade at N318.60, Austin Laz improved by 9.97 per cent to N3.20, International Breweries expanded by 9.85 per cent to N14.50, Transcorp Hotels rose by 9.83 per cent to N170.90, and Aluminium Extrusion grew by 9.73 per cent to N16.35.

On the flip side, Legend Internet lost 9.26 per cent to close at N4.90, AXA Mansard shrank by 7.14 per cent to N13.00, Jaiz Bank declined by 5.45 per cent to N4.51, MTN Nigeria weakened by 5.21 per cent to N504.00, and NEM Insurance crashed by 4.74 per cent to N24.10.

Yesterday, a total of 1.8 billion shares valued at N30.1 billion exchanged hands in 19,372 deals versus the 677.4 billion shares worth N20.8 billion traded in 27,589 deals in the previous session, implying a slump in the number of deals by 29.78 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 165.72 per cent and 44.71 per cent apiece.

Abbey Mortgage Bank was the most active equity for the day after it sold 1.1 billion units worth N7.1 billion, Sterling Holdings traded 127.1 million units valued at N895.9 million, Custodian Investment exchanged 115.0 million units for N4.5 billion, First Holdco transacted 40.9 million units valued at N2.2 billion, and Access Holdings traded 38.2 million units worth N783.3 million.

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Economy

Yuletide: Rite Foods Reiterates Commitment to Quality, Innovation

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian food and beverage company, Rite Foods Limited, has extended warm Yuletide greetings to Nigerians as families and communities worldwide come together to celebrate the Christmas season and usher in a new year filled with hope and renewed possibilities.

In a statement, Rite Foods encouraged consumers to savour these special occasions with its wide range of quality brands, including the 13 variants of Bigi Carbonated Soft Drinks, premium Bigi Table Water, Sosa Fruit Drink in its refreshing flavours, the Fearless Energy Drink, and its tasty sausage rolls — all produced in a world-class facility with modern technology and global best practices.

Speaking on the season, the Managing Director of Rite Foods Limited, Mr Seleem Adegunwa, said the company remains deeply committed to enriching the lives of consumers beyond refreshment. According to him, the Yuletide period underscores the values of generosity, unity, and gratitude, which resonate strongly with the company’s philosophy.

“Christmas is a season that reminds us of the importance of giving, togetherness, and gratitude. At Rite Foods, we are thankful for the continued trust of Nigerians in our brands. This season strengthens our resolve to consistently deliver quality products that bring joy to everyday moments while contributing positively to society,” Mr Adegunwa stated.

He noted that the company’s steady progress in brand acceptance, operational excellence, and responsible business practices reflects a culture of continuous improvement, innovation, and responsiveness to consumer needs. These efforts, he said, have further strengthened Rite Foods’ position as a proudly Nigerian brand with growing relevance and impact across the country.

Mr Adegunwa reaffirmed that Rite Foods will continue to invest in research and development, efficient production processes, and initiatives that support communities, while maintaining quality standards across its product portfolio.

“As the year comes to a close, Rite Foods Limited wishes Nigerians a joyful Christmas celebration and a prosperous New Year filled with peace, progress, and shared success.”

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