Economy
What Awaits Nigeria’s Economy in Buhari’s 2nd Term
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The presidential election in Nigeria may have come and gone, but the effect will be with the Africa’s largest economy for the next four years.
Last Saturday, Nigerians went to the polls to re-elect President Muhammadu Buhari for another four years.
In his first four years in office, which will officially end on May 29, 2019, the nation suffered its first recession in many years.
During the period, a lot of investors rushed to pull out their funds from the country and the stock market suffered for it.
Also, the President had to spend a chunk of his time in office treating himself at a hospital in London, creating the impression that he was not fully fit to govern the country.
As the country prepare for another four years of President Buhari, analysts at United Capital Research have given their views on the economic outlook in his second term in office.
“The outlook for the economy over the next four years is positive but modest as President Buhari’s victory signals policy stability,” the firm said.
It was stated that the administration will clearly continue to invest in infrastructure, sustain its welfare scheme, reinforce the drive to substitute imports for local production, and retain its intervention programs across the Agric, Power and the SMEs space, by building on its Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).
“We expect the budget to remain large, broadly financed by borrowings. However, the role of the private sector may be limited by the absence of far-reaching liberal policies.
“This may keep investment low and output growth soft. Accordingly, we expect GDP growth to sustain a gradual uptick over the next four years, rising from 2.0% to 3.5% or more over the period.
“Inflation rate is likely to ease 10%/9%, though minimum wage implementation and power tariff adjustment may weigh on prices.
“Thus, interest rate may to revert to its long term 12% over the period. In the rest of the report, we highlight our views of the medium term economic outlook for Nigeria,” it said.
The firm further said beyond elections, the medium to long term outlook for the Nigerian economy depends on the position of government on the implementation of far-reaching economic reforms to fix the structural challenges in the economy.
“If not urgently addressed, structural constraints such as; the enormous infrastructural deficit, poor electricity supply, sharp rising population growth, dependence on oil export and oil revenue for budget funding, and the problem of the viability of sub-national governments, are bound to mar economic progress.
“Notably, system inefficiencies continue to undermine the ability of the federal government to diversify its revenue base, enhance social justice, allocate resources efficiently and drive economic diversification. If the stance of the current administration over the last four years is anything to go by, we do not envisage a significant drive for bold reforms.
“However, we expect investment in infrastructures such as rail project, road, and similar social amenities to continue in a bid to bridge the infrastructural gap.
“Again, the drive to diversify government revenue via improving the efficiency of tax authorities such as the FIRS, Customs and Ports Authorities, and support the SMEs boost job creation through intervention in the Agric sector will continue.
“Finally, efforts to ease doing business in Nigeria, via the initiatives of the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC), by reviewing the bureaucracies and red tapes within the civil service and other government agencies, should be more obvious going forward,” the report said.
In its report, United Capital Research further during the period, it expects the present Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Godwin Emefiele, if retained by the President for another term in office, to sustain its current fixed/multiple forex regime.
On monetary policy, it said aggressive liquidity mop-up via persistent OMO issuances may be retained considering that FX rate will broadly drive policy actions.
On the government’s anti-corruption war, the company said efforts to stamp-out corruption will be sustained and the EFCC will continue to clamp down on looters and individuals with allegations of misappropriation of public funds.
Over the last three to four years, the implementation of TSA, whistleblower’s policy and the efficiency unit of the Ministry of Finance, by the administration has supported significant improvement in independent revenue and recoveries.
“While this will remain appealing to the poor masses, it may rein in discretionary spending by the elite, ultimately limiting the growth rate of aggregate spending in the economy, especially on activities in the services sector,” it said.
On security and social political environment, it said a major aspect of the socio-political environment that seems to have benefited a lot from President Buhari’s first 4-year is the war against insurgency.
If the voting pattern from the region is anything to go by, the massive re-election of the President by voters in Borno and Yobe (the most affected States) suggests that the perceived containment of Boko Haram activities by the Buhari government is paying off.
“Hence, we imagine that another four years in office is positive for relative peace and security in the North Eastern region of the country,” it stated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a loss of 1.13 per cent on Thursday, June 4, shrinking the market capitalisation by N30.03 billion to N2.630 trillion from N2.660 trillion on Wednesday.
Similarly, this brought down the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 50.19 points to 4,396.08 points from the 4,446.27 points recorded a day earlier.
The loss was influenced by the overpowering of the bulls by the bears, after the bourse closed with two price gainers and three price losers, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which slumped by N20.03 to sell at N190.38 per unit compared with midweek’s N210.41 per unit. Food Concepts Plc declined by 25 Kobo to trade at N2.50 per share versus the previous day’s N3.00 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc crumbled by 2 Kobo to end at N1.32 per unit, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1.34 per unit.
For the gainers, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc added N2.93 to close at N78.34 per share compared with the previous price of N75.41 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 80 Kobo to settle at N16.80 per unit versus N16.00 per unit.
There was a slip in the volume of transactions yesterday by 46.8 per cent to 280,714 units from 527,221 units, as the value of trades dropped 66.5 per cent to N21.8 million from the preceding session’s N64.2 million, and the number of deals fell by 8.7 per cent to 42 deals from 46 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the session as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.7 million units traded for N4.4 billion.
GNI Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The domestic stock market crashed by 0.37 per cent on Thursday as a result of the decline in the price of shares of McNichols, Eterna, Aradel Holdings, and others.
Business Post reports that investor sentiment remained weak after the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended the session with 25 price gainers and 31 price losers, indicating a negative market breadth index.
McNichols lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N7.74, ABC Transport slipped by 9.88 per cent to N6.20, Eterna shrank by 9.85 per cent to N29.75, Aradel Holdings depreciated by 9.51 per cent to N1,749.90, and NPF Microfinance Bank contracted by 8.45 per cent to N5.20.
On the flip side, International Energy Insurance gained 10.00 per cent to close at N6.60, Omatek improved by 9.73 per cent to N2.03, Abbey Mortgage Bank surged by 9.68 per cent to N8.50, Cutix expanded by 9.66 per cent to N3.18, and John Holt grew by 7.79 per cent to N14.90.
As for the sectorial performance, the industrial goods and banking indices chalked up 0.54 per cent and 0.31 per cent, respectively. But the energy sector depleted by 4.90 per cent, the insurance counter tumbled by 0.58 per cent, and the consumer goods index slumped by 0.03 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) dipped by 905.30 points to 242,227.31 points from 243,132.61 points, and the market capitalisation stumbled by N581 billion to N155.359 trillion from N155.940 trillion.
During the session, investors traded 588.5 million equities valued at N27.9 billion in 57,352 deals compared with the 923.0 million equities worth N42.3 billion transacted in 69,332 deals on Wednesday, showing a drop in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 36.24 per cent, 34.04 per cent, and 17.28 per cent, respectively.
The most active equity yesterday was Access Holdings with 109.7 million units sold for N2.6 billion, FCMB traded 35.6 million units valued at N384.2 million, NGX Group transacted 28.1 million units worth N3.9 billion, Zenith Bank exchanged 26.9 million units for N3.3 billion, and Sterling Holdings recorded a turnover of 22.5 million units worth N176.1 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
A 0.1 per cent or N1,49 loss was recorded by the Nigerian Naira against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, June 4, closing at N1,358.75/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,347.26/$1.
In the same vein, the Naira depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official FX market during the session by N5.39 to trade at N1,828.06/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,822.67/£1, but gained N6.75 against the Euro to sell at N1,574.83/€1 versus the preceding session’s N1,584.39/€1.
At the black market and GTBank FX desk, the local currency traded flat against the Dollar during the session at N1,375/$1 and N1,372/$1, respectively.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that NFEM interbank FX turnover contracted to $128.117 million in 121 deals on Thursday from $133.731 million the previous day.
On the positive side, Nigeria’s external reserves moved closer to a 2009 high of $50 billion, enhancing analysts’ confidence about the local currency outlook in the second half of 2026.
This improvement has been helped by heightened global uncertainty, which has reduced the incentive for importers and corporates to demand FX, as cautious trade weighs on import needs. Analysts estimate a $40 billion net FX position for the year, a projection anchored in oil windfall gains.
As for the cryptocurrency market, prices extended steep weekly losses as the broader artificial-intelligence trade that has driven global risk assets since 2026 faltered.
The sell-off was led by equity and currency markets, with semiconductor stocks, Asian indexes and several regional currencies sliding in a broad risk-off shift.
Persistent outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a rare BTC sale by Strategy have removed a key source of support, leaving markets focused on Friday’s US jobs report for clues on Federal Reserve policy and the fate of the AI trade. The most valued coin slipped 3.6 per cent to $61,914.58.
Cardano (ADA) plunged by 17.6 per cent to $0.1630, Solana (SOL) declined by 7.0 per cent to $65.69, Ethereum (ETH) slipped by 6.9 per cent to $1,666.13, Dogecoin (DOGE) went down by 6.5 per cent to $0.8445, and Ripple (XRP) crashed by 6.5 per cent to $1.11.
Further, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 4.3 per cent to $581.45, and TRON (TRX) dropped 1.9 per cent to sell at $0.3261, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) gained 0.01 per cent each to sell at $0.9990 and $0.9998, respectively.
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