Economy
What Awaits Nigeria’s Economy in Buhari’s 2nd Term
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The presidential election in Nigeria may have come and gone, but the effect will be with the Africa’s largest economy for the next four years.
Last Saturday, Nigerians went to the polls to re-elect President Muhammadu Buhari for another four years.
In his first four years in office, which will officially end on May 29, 2019, the nation suffered its first recession in many years.
During the period, a lot of investors rushed to pull out their funds from the country and the stock market suffered for it.
Also, the President had to spend a chunk of his time in office treating himself at a hospital in London, creating the impression that he was not fully fit to govern the country.
As the country prepare for another four years of President Buhari, analysts at United Capital Research have given their views on the economic outlook in his second term in office.
“The outlook for the economy over the next four years is positive but modest as President Buhari’s victory signals policy stability,” the firm said.
It was stated that the administration will clearly continue to invest in infrastructure, sustain its welfare scheme, reinforce the drive to substitute imports for local production, and retain its intervention programs across the Agric, Power and the SMEs space, by building on its Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).
“We expect the budget to remain large, broadly financed by borrowings. However, the role of the private sector may be limited by the absence of far-reaching liberal policies.
“This may keep investment low and output growth soft. Accordingly, we expect GDP growth to sustain a gradual uptick over the next four years, rising from 2.0% to 3.5% or more over the period.
“Inflation rate is likely to ease 10%/9%, though minimum wage implementation and power tariff adjustment may weigh on prices.
“Thus, interest rate may to revert to its long term 12% over the period. In the rest of the report, we highlight our views of the medium term economic outlook for Nigeria,” it said.
The firm further said beyond elections, the medium to long term outlook for the Nigerian economy depends on the position of government on the implementation of far-reaching economic reforms to fix the structural challenges in the economy.
“If not urgently addressed, structural constraints such as; the enormous infrastructural deficit, poor electricity supply, sharp rising population growth, dependence on oil export and oil revenue for budget funding, and the problem of the viability of sub-national governments, are bound to mar economic progress.
“Notably, system inefficiencies continue to undermine the ability of the federal government to diversify its revenue base, enhance social justice, allocate resources efficiently and drive economic diversification. If the stance of the current administration over the last four years is anything to go by, we do not envisage a significant drive for bold reforms.
“However, we expect investment in infrastructures such as rail project, road, and similar social amenities to continue in a bid to bridge the infrastructural gap.
“Again, the drive to diversify government revenue via improving the efficiency of tax authorities such as the FIRS, Customs and Ports Authorities, and support the SMEs boost job creation through intervention in the Agric sector will continue.
“Finally, efforts to ease doing business in Nigeria, via the initiatives of the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC), by reviewing the bureaucracies and red tapes within the civil service and other government agencies, should be more obvious going forward,” the report said.
In its report, United Capital Research further during the period, it expects the present Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Godwin Emefiele, if retained by the President for another term in office, to sustain its current fixed/multiple forex regime.
On monetary policy, it said aggressive liquidity mop-up via persistent OMO issuances may be retained considering that FX rate will broadly drive policy actions.
On the government’s anti-corruption war, the company said efforts to stamp-out corruption will be sustained and the EFCC will continue to clamp down on looters and individuals with allegations of misappropriation of public funds.
Over the last three to four years, the implementation of TSA, whistleblower’s policy and the efficiency unit of the Ministry of Finance, by the administration has supported significant improvement in independent revenue and recoveries.
“While this will remain appealing to the poor masses, it may rein in discretionary spending by the elite, ultimately limiting the growth rate of aggregate spending in the economy, especially on activities in the services sector,” it said.
On security and social political environment, it said a major aspect of the socio-political environment that seems to have benefited a lot from President Buhari’s first 4-year is the war against insurgency.
If the voting pattern from the region is anything to go by, the massive re-election of the President by voters in Borno and Yobe (the most affected States) suggests that the perceived containment of Boko Haram activities by the Buhari government is paying off.
“Hence, we imagine that another four years in office is positive for relative peace and security in the North Eastern region of the country,” it stated.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited tumbled by 1.12 per cent on Wednesday as a result of selling pressure in three of the five key sectors of the bourse.
Yesterday, the insurance space rose by 0.71 per cent and the energy counter appreciated by 0.02 per cent. But these gains were erased by the three other sectors, with the consumer goods index down by 4.93 per cent, the industrial goods sector down by 0.42 per cent, and the banking segment down by 0.30 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) receded by 2,756.48 points to 243,967.09 points from 246,723.57 points, and the market capitalisation dropped by N1.762 trillion to close at N157.494 trillion compared with Tuesday’s N159.256 trillion.
The worst-performing stock for the day was BUA Foods, which lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N760.60. Unilever Nigeria shed 9.97 per cent to close at N131.40, John Holt depreciated by 9.90 per cent to N9.10, AVA Capital declined by 9.50 per cent to N8.10, and Austin Laz crashed by 8.81 per cent to N2.90.
The best-performing stock for the session was International Energy Insurance, which chalked up 10.00 per cent to quote at N4.40. Ecobank gained 9.93 per cent to settle at N71.40, Trans-Nationwide Express expanded by 9.77 per cent to N2.36, CWG grew by 9.74 per cent to N21.40, and Cornerstone Insurance improved by 6.80 per cent to N5.50.
Yesterday, 1.5 billion shares were sold for N20.9 billion in 39,085 deals compared with the 3.9 billion shares worth N32.4 billion exchanged in 45,608 deals a day earlier, representing a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 61.54 per cent, 35.49 per cent, and 14.30 per cent, respectively.
On top of the activity chart was Fortis Global Insurance, with a turnover of 853.2 million units sold for N2.6 billion. Universal Insurance exchanged 251.8 million units worth N214.1 million, Chams transacted 40.0 million units valued at N181.0 million, First Holdco traded 28.3 million units worth N3.9 billion, and Access Holdings sold 25.4 million units valued at N702.4 million.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
As part of the implementation of the T+1 settlement cycle in the Nigerian capital market, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has fixed 5:00 pm on the first business day after a transaction (T+1) as the settlement deadline for equities and commodities traded and settled through the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS).
In a circular on Wednesday to capital market operators and other market participants, the capital market regulator noted that all transactions in the affected securities must be fully paid by 5:00 pm T+1 to ensure compliance with the standard Delivery versus Payment (DvP) settlement procedure.
It warned that where a broker/dealer’s trading account is not adequately funded to meet its settlement obligation within the prescribed period, the default would be managed in line with the CSCS Default Management Procedure and the applicable transaction settlement guidelines of the relevant exchange.
The commission also clarified that foreign portfolio investors are not required to prefund their accounts for trades in the Nigerian capital market.
However, it said capital market operators facilitating transactions on behalf of foreign portfolio investors must establish and maintain appropriate controls and processes to ensure timely funding and completion of settlements within the prescribed timeframe.
The clarification follows earlier SEC circulars on the implementation of the T+2 settlement cycle for equities transactions, issued on June 3, 2025, and the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle, issued on May 15, 2026.
The T+1 cycle means that eligible securities transactions are settled one business day after the trade date, reducing the period between execution and final settlement.
The SEC said the transition represents a significant milestone in its efforts to build a more efficient, resilient and internationally aligned trading and post-trade environment, adding that the shorter settlement cycle would improve settlement efficiency, reduce counterparty risk, enhance liquidity and strengthen the competitiveness of the Nigerian capital market.
According to the agency, the reforms would ultimately improve the attractiveness of the Nigerian market to both domestic and international investors.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices slightly rose on Wednesday as attacks on ships in the Middle East continued and talks to end the Iran war hit an impasse.
Brent futures gained 7 cents to trade at $88.98 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 7 cents to $83.27 per barrel.
The US and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, two crucial export routes for Middle Eastern oil and gas in addition to the Suez Canal.
Reuters reported that there continued to be no discussions between Iran and the US to extend their ceasefire because, from Iran’s perspective, the deal had no start date and so there was nothing to extend.
Shipping data showed the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to a one-week low of eight on Tuesday. Before the war, 125 to 140 vessels passed through the crucial waterway each day.
The US military, meanwhile, said an American Navy MH-60 helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles to disable the steering gear of a Panama-flagged cargo ship.
The ship ignored repeated warnings to stop violating a naval blockade on Iranian ports, the US Central Command said.
Forecasters including the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Administration (IEA) revised down their oil demand outlooks as US-Iran talks stall.
OPEC lowered its world oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day, it said in its monthly oil market report.
The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 demand projections and now expects a 1.6 million barrels per day contraction this year. However, the Paris-based agency is also predicting a 4.3 million barrels per day drop in supply this year, and an overall 2026 deficit of around 1.27 million barrels per day.
According to the IEA, Middle East oil flows briefly returned to pre-war levels in early July, with loadings reaching 20 million bpd, before falling to 12 million bpd later in the month. Middle East production remained 8.3 million barrels per day below pre-war levels in July.
The IEA cited the Hormuz shutdown, the US blockade of Iranian exports, attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports among the forces keeping global supply below demand.
