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Nigeria’s Economy to Further Face Downside Risk—Fitch

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Nigerian economy Recession

By Dipo Olowookere

Global rating company, Fitch, has disclosed that top economies in the sub-Saharan region, which include Nigeria, face significant constraints due to poor economic environments and political obstacles.

In its African Monitor report obtained by Business Post, the rating agency said “reform momentum has stalled in Nigeria, largely owing to political constraints which we expect to remain elevated leading up to and after the February 2019 presidential race.”

Commenting on the nation’s economy, Fitch said, “Although growth increased in Q318 compared with the previous quarter, Nigeria’s economic recovery remains tepid and will continue to face downside risks over the short term.”

In the third quarter of 2018, Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 1.8 percent year-on-year, up from 1.5 percent in the second quarter of last year and 1.4 percent in the third quarter of 2017.

Annual economic growth was again led by the non-oil sector while oil production, although higher than in the previous quarter, saw a year-on-year contraction in Q318.

Fitch noted that growth of 1.8 percent in Q318 was well below the average annual growth of 4.8 percent between 2011 and 2015, weighed down by weakness in the crucial oil sector.

On the rising unemployment rate in the country, the company emphasised that this will continue to weigh on economic growth in 2019.

“High unemployment limiting consumer spending reinforces our expectations for weaker economic growth over the coming quarters.

“The NBS’s figures also show that the youth population, aged between 15 and 34 and comprising 48.9 percent of the workforce, continues to struggle in the labour market.

“With youth unemployment having risen to 29.7 percent in Q317, from 10.9 percent in Q114, the economy’s inability to more effectively tap into the growing number of young potential workers will limit real GDP growth compared with previous years,” it said.

“With significant poverty and inequality, risks to social stability in Nigeria remain tilted firmly to the downside.

“Failure to create employment opportunities for displaced and economically disenfranchised people has already contributed to growth in membership of Boko Haram and Islamic State in West Africa’s ranks in recent years, with the groups continuing to pose major threats to Nigerian security,” it added.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Naira Weakens to N1,547/$1 at Official Market, N1,670/$1 at Black Market

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Naira-Dollar exchange rate gap

By Adedapo Adesanya

The euphoria around the recent appreciation of the Naira eased on Wednesday, December 11 after its value shrank against the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by N5.23 or 0.3 per cent to N1,547.50/$1 from the N1,542.27/$1 it was valued on Tuesday.

It was observed that spectators’ activities may have triggered the weakening of the local currency in the official market at midweek as they tried to fight back and ensure the value of funds in foreign currencies strengthened.

The domestic currency was regaining its footing after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) launched an Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) platform to tackle speculation and improve transparency in Nigeria’s FX market.

At midweek, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling by N3.56 to close at N1,958.68/£1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,955.12/£1 and against the Euro, it slumped by 34 Kobo to trade at N1,612.66/€1, in contrast to the previous session’s N1,613.00/€1.

As for the black market segment, the Naira lost N45 against the American currency during the session to quote at N1,670/$1 compared with the N1,625/$1 it was traded a day earlier.

A look at the cryptocurrency market showed a recovery following profit-taking as the US Consumer Price Index report matched economist forecasts.

The news was enough to convince traders that the Federal Reserve is certain to trim its benchmark fed funds rate another 25 basis points at its meeting next week.

The move also saw Bitcoin (BTC), the most valued coin, return to the $100,000 mark as it added a 2.9 per cent gain and sold for $100,566.12.

The biggest gainer was Cardano (ADA), which jumped by 15.00 per cent to trade at $1.16, as Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 10.4 per cent to sell for $121.76, and Ethereum (ETH) surged by 7.0 per cent to $3,929.30, while Dogecoin (DOGE) recorded a 6.7 per cent growth to finish at $0.4181.

Further, Binance Coin (BNB) went up by 5.2 per cent to $716.72, Solana (SOL) expanded by 4.6 per cent to $229.77, and Ripple (XRP) increased by 4.2 per cent to $2.43, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 apiece.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Makes First PMS Exports to Cameroon

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dangote refinery trucks

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Dangote Refinery located in the Lekki area of Lagos State has made its first export of premium motor spirit (PMS) just three months after it commenced the production of petrol.

In September 2024, the refinery produced its first petrol and began loading to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) on September 15.

However, due to some issues, the facility has not been able to flood the local market with its product, forcing it to look elsewhere.

In a landmark move for regional energy integration, Dangote Refinery has partnered with Neptune Oil to take its petrol to neighbouring Cameroon.

Neptune Oil is a leading energy company in Cameroon which provides reliable and sustainable energy solutions.

Dangote Refinery said this development showcases its ability to meet domestic needs and position itself as a key player in the regional energy market, adding that it represents a significant step forward in accessing high-quality and locally sourced petroleum products for Cameroon.

 “This first export of PMS to Cameroon is a tangible demonstration of our vision for a united and energy-independent Africa.

“With this development, we are laying the foundation for a future where African resources are refined and exchanged within the continent for the benefit of our people,” the owner of Dangote Refinery, Mr Aliko Dangote, said.

His counterpart at Neptune Oil, Mr Antoine Ndzengue, said, “This partnership with Dangote Refinery marks a turning point for Cameroon.

“By becoming the first importer of petroleum products from this world-class refinery, we are bolstering our country’s energy security and supporting local economic development.

“This initial supply, executed without international intermediaries, reflects our commitment to serving our markets independently and efficiently.”

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Economy

Strong Investor Sentiment Keeps NGX Index in Green Territory by 0.31%

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All-Share Index NGX

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited remained in the green territory on Wednesday after it rallied by 0.31 per cent on the back of sustained bargain-hunting activities by investors.

Business Post reports that all the key sectors of the market closed higher at midweek as a result of the renewed interest in local equities.

Data showed that the energy index appreciated by 2.59 per cent, the insurance space grew by 2.34 per cent, the industrial goods sector improved by 0.15 per cent, the banking counter expanded by 0.06 per cent, and the consumer goods industry rose by 0.04 per cent.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 302.71 points to settle at 98,509.68 points compared with Tuesday’s closing value of 98,206.97 points and the market capitalisation added N183 billion to close at N59.715 trillion versus the preceding day’s N59.532 trillion.

It was observed that the level of activity yesterday waned as the trading volume, value and number of deals decreased by 65.93 per cent, 49.22 per cent, and 12.70 per cent, respectively.

On Wednesday, a total of 320.1 million stocks valued at N6.5 billion were transacted in 7,943 deals, in contrast to the 939.4 million stocks worth N12.8 billion traded in 9,098 deals.

The busiest equity at midweek was eTranzact, which transacted 70.3 million units for N474.2 million, Universal Insurance traded 23.8 million units worth 8.1 million, Zenith Bank exchanged 21.2 million units valued at N933.5 million, FBN Holdings sold 18.6 million units worth N491.2 million, and UBA traded 14.0 million units valued at N465.8 million.

At the close of transactions, 34 shares ended on the gainers’ log and 17 shares finished on the losers’ chart, representing a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.

Africa Prudential gained 10.00 per cent to quote at N14.30, Conoil also improved by 10.00 per cent to N352.00, and RT Briscoe expanded by 10.00 per cent to N2.42, as Golden Guinea Breweries jumped by 9.95 per cent to N7.18, while NEM Insurance grew by 9.74 per cent to N10.70.

However, Julius Berger lost 10.00 per cent to close at N155.25, Secure Electronic Technology shed 9.52 per cent to trade at 57 Kobo, Multiverse declined by 7.63 per cent to N5.45, Haldane McCall tumbled by 6.07 per cent to N4.95, and Honeywell Flour crashed by 5.62 per cent to N4.70.

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