Economy
Inflation to Drop to 11.32% in June on Base Effect—FSDH
Modupe Gbadeyanka
For the past two straight months, inflation rate in Nigeria has been trending upward, but if what analysts at FSDH Research foresee is something to take seriously, then a downward movement of the rate should be expected when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases the figures for the month of June 2019 on Sunday, July 14, 2019.
In May 2019, inflation jumped to 11.40 percent, but FSDH Research said it expects this to drop to 11.32 percent in June 2019, attributing this on base effect.
The investment firm said even though prices of the consumer items increased in June 2019, they were at a slower rate between May and June 2019 than the rate of increase between May and June 2018.
It said the price monitor conducted on food and non-food items shows prices moved in varying directions in June compared with May. While the prices of some consumer goods increased faster in June compared with May 2019, the prices of a few consumer goods increased slower in June than in May.
“Our preliminary investigations show that the local prices of imported goods increased marginally in June over May because of the exchange rate adjustment on import duties. However, the marginal increase was not enough to accelerate the inflation rate.
“The Food Price Index that the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations published for the month of June 2019, shows that the prices of dairy products and oils declined significantly.
“The prices of meat, cereals and sugar, however, increased on the international market. Most of the decreases recorded on the international market were mainly as a result of increased export availabilities and limited import demand.
‘FSDH Research believes that the inflation rate will trend downwards barring any increase in the
electricity tariffs and pump price of Premium Motor Spirit.
“At the current inflation rate and given the desire of the CBN to maintain positive real yield on fixed income securities, FSDH Research believes the issuance of Commercial Papers (CPs) are attractive to corporate bodies.
“The high appetite that investors have for debt securities in the Nigerian financial market at the moment will ensure success of quality debt issuance.
“The Federal Government of Nigeria however, has to play its role to ensure infrastructure development, in particular an appropriate transport network, reliable electricity supply and security of lives and property. With these in place, the road to single-digit inflation rate will be smooth,” the Lagos-based company said.
Recall that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is targeting single-digit inflation rate for the Nigerian economy, reiterating the desire to achieve that target in the five-year plan it released a few weeks ago.
“In other words, any inflation rate in double-digit is considered high in our view. Given recent developments in the country, particularly in the agricultural sector, and farmers’ inability to move their produce to the market efficiently, it may be difficult to achieve a single-digit inflation rate in 2019.
“While the CBN is deploying strategies to influence the amount of money in circulation in a manner that will not be inflationary, we believe there are other key causes of high inflation in Nigeria which the CBN’s current policy may not be able to address,” it said.
Economy
Naira Crashes to N1,362.05/$1 at Official Window After N1.50 Loss
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira fell against the United States Dollar by N1.50 or 0.11 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) to sell at N1,362.05/$1 on Wednesday, June 10, compared with the N1,360.55/$1 it traded on Tuesday.
Also, the local currency lost N4.33 against the Pound Sterling in the official window yesterday to trade at N1,827.33/£1 versus the preceding day’s N1,823.00/£1, and depreciated against the Euro by N1.74 to quote at N1,575.35/€1, in contrast to N1,573.61/€1 of the previous session.
However, at the GTBank forex desk, the Naira gained N3 against the US Dollar to sell at N1,370/$1 versus N1,373/$1, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,380/$1.
Updated data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that foreign reserves surged further due to additional inflows from various sources. Nigeria’s gross external reserves increased to $50.439 billion, its highest level since March 2026, reflecting sustained inflows from oil revenue and other FX sources.
Also, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said increased confidence in the Naira, supported by lower and more stable inflation, would encourage households, businesses and investors to hold more local currency assets and reduce reliance on foreign currencies.
The global lender, in a recent assessment, stressed the importance of strengthening the CBN’s operational framework and aligning liquidity management operations more closely with monetary policy objectives.
In the cryptocurrency market, there were recoveries from recent losses as US headline inflation rose an expected 0.5 per cent in May, but the beat on the core rate — which cuts out food and energy costs — pleased markets. The core rate, though, rose just 0.2 per cent in May against forecasts for 0.3 per cent.
The print reinforces the view that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at 350-375 basis points at its June 17 meeting, but is likely to increase rates by 25 basis points by the end of the year.
Cardano (ADA) went up by 2.4 per cent to $0.1647, Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2.3 per cent to $62,794.09, Binance Coin (BNB) jumped 1.8 per cent to $596.23, Ethereum (ETH) grew by 1.7 per cent to $1,658.12, and Solana (SOL) also soared by 1.7 per cent to $65.23.
Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) appreciated by 1.5 per cent to $0.0849, Ripple (XRP) expanded by 0.4 per cent to $1.11, and TRON (TRX) increased by 0.05 per cent to $0.3218, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) lost 0.10 per cent to close at $0.9989, and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) declined by 0.01 per cent to $0.9997.
Economy
Oil Prices Jump as Iran Shuts Down Strait of Hormuz
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices jumped early on Thursday as Iran declared the critical energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, closed after the US launched additional strikes against the Middle East oil producer.
Brent futures rose $1.48 or 1.59 per cent to $94.58 per barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.71 or 1.90 per cent to $91.74 a barrel.
Iran’s top joint military command announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, including oil tankers and commercial ships, saying any vessel attempting passage will be shot at.
Market analysts noted that the renewed escalation in fighting prompted oil prices to rally in early morning trading.
On Wednesday, the US military said on X that commercial ships continue to transit in and out of the strait. It also said no US warships have been struck in the strait, after Iran’s state media reported US ships near the waterway were targeted by missiles and drones.
US forces began launching additional strikes against multiple targets in Iran on Wednesday, the latest in an escalating exchange of attacks that threaten to reignite a full-scale war, which was paused in early April when the two sides agreed to a fragile ceasefire.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth held a press briefing announcing further attacks on Iran, saying, “If we need to negotiate with bombs, we’ll negotiate with bombs.” US Central Command later described those attacks as targeting “Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems, and air defence sites across Iran.”
In response to the attacks, Iran’s top joint military command then announced that the Strait was closed to all shipping.
President Donald Trump said the strikes would stop shortly, but that they would continue if Iran’s leaders did not sign an agreement with the US immediately.
Iran’s months-long blockade of the strait, which normally carries a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, has kept oil prices elevated.
The latest exchange of strikes between the US and Iran marks the most significant escalation in the conflict since both countries agreed to a fragile ceasefire in April. Since then, oil inventories have drained dramatically, and no tangible breakthroughs have been announced.
Crude oil inventories in the US decreased by 7.2 million barrels during the week ending June 5, according to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA’s data release follows figures that were released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories saw a draw of 9.119 million barrels in the period.
Economy
Customs Street Rallies 0.06% Amid Weak Investor Sentiment
By Dipo Olowookere
A marginal 0.06 per cent was recorded by Customs Street at the close of business on Wednesday, extending the dominance of the bulls for another trading session.
The uptick printed by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited was despite weak investor sentiment after reporting 30 price gainers and 36 price losers, representing a positive market breadth index.
Livestock Feeds gained 10.00 per cent to close at N9.35, Deap Capital expanded by 9.86 per cent to N5.35, Abbey Mortgage Bank appreciated by 9.78 per cent to N12.35, Vitafoam grew by 8.25 per cent to N210.00, and FTN Cocoa chalked up 6.54 per cent to finish at N9.45.
On the flip side, Neimeth lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N9.00, International Energy Insurance slipped by 9.92 per cent to N7.90, John Holt shrank by 9.73 per cent to N13.45, Union Homes REIT declined by 8.56 per cent to N70.00, and eTranzact went down by 8.06 per cent to N16.55.
Though activity level contracted yesterday, it remained on the high side, as market participants transacted 1.2 billion equities worth N38.8 billion in 54,193 deals compared with the 1.3 billion equities valued at N57.9 billion traded in 59,956 deals on Tuesday, indicating a shortfall in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 7.69 per cent, 32.99 per cent, and 9.61 per cent, respectively.
Sterling Holdings sold 565.3 million shares valued at N4.5 billion to emerge as the busiest during the session. FCMB transacted 122.1 million equities for N1.5 billion, Access Holdings sold 49.5 million stocks worth N1.3 billion, Jaiz Bank exchanged 34.9 million shares valued at N313.8 million, and Universal Insurance traded 32.4 million stocks worth N35.6 million.
Business Post reports that the banking and industrial goods sectors respectively lost 0.79 per cent and 0.09 per cent yesterday as a result of profit-taking.
However, the consumer goods index rose 0.42 per cent, the energy counter increased by 0.14 per cent, and the insurance segment improved by 0.03 per cent due to bargain-hunting.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 154.59 points to 244,852.21 points from 244,697.62 points, and the market capitalisation soared by N99 billion to N157.043 trillion from N156.944 trillion.
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