Economy
Inflation to Drop to 11.32% in June on Base Effect—FSDH
Modupe Gbadeyanka
For the past two straight months, inflation rate in Nigeria has been trending upward, but if what analysts at FSDH Research foresee is something to take seriously, then a downward movement of the rate should be expected when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases the figures for the month of June 2019 on Sunday, July 14, 2019.
In May 2019, inflation jumped to 11.40 percent, but FSDH Research said it expects this to drop to 11.32 percent in June 2019, attributing this on base effect.
The investment firm said even though prices of the consumer items increased in June 2019, they were at a slower rate between May and June 2019 than the rate of increase between May and June 2018.
It said the price monitor conducted on food and non-food items shows prices moved in varying directions in June compared with May. While the prices of some consumer goods increased faster in June compared with May 2019, the prices of a few consumer goods increased slower in June than in May.
“Our preliminary investigations show that the local prices of imported goods increased marginally in June over May because of the exchange rate adjustment on import duties. However, the marginal increase was not enough to accelerate the inflation rate.
“The Food Price Index that the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations published for the month of June 2019, shows that the prices of dairy products and oils declined significantly.
“The prices of meat, cereals and sugar, however, increased on the international market. Most of the decreases recorded on the international market were mainly as a result of increased export availabilities and limited import demand.
‘FSDH Research believes that the inflation rate will trend downwards barring any increase in the
electricity tariffs and pump price of Premium Motor Spirit.
“At the current inflation rate and given the desire of the CBN to maintain positive real yield on fixed income securities, FSDH Research believes the issuance of Commercial Papers (CPs) are attractive to corporate bodies.
“The high appetite that investors have for debt securities in the Nigerian financial market at the moment will ensure success of quality debt issuance.
“The Federal Government of Nigeria however, has to play its role to ensure infrastructure development, in particular an appropriate transport network, reliable electricity supply and security of lives and property. With these in place, the road to single-digit inflation rate will be smooth,” the Lagos-based company said.
Recall that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is targeting single-digit inflation rate for the Nigerian economy, reiterating the desire to achieve that target in the five-year plan it released a few weeks ago.
“In other words, any inflation rate in double-digit is considered high in our view. Given recent developments in the country, particularly in the agricultural sector, and farmers’ inability to move their produce to the market efficiently, it may be difficult to achieve a single-digit inflation rate in 2019.
“While the CBN is deploying strategies to influence the amount of money in circulation in a manner that will not be inflationary, we believe there are other key causes of high inflation in Nigeria which the CBN’s current policy may not be able to address,” it said.
Economy
Champion Breweries Posts N14.36bn Revenue in Q1 2026 After Group Structure Transition
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Champion Breweries Plc has released its first consolidated financial results as an expanded organisation following its recent strategic expansion.
The company transitioned to a group structure after the acquisition of an 80 per cent equity interest in enJOYbev BV, whose performance is now consolidated into the group accounts for the first time.
In the results for the first quarter of 2026 released to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, Champion Breweries posted a revenue of N14.36 billion, representing a strong increase compared to the prior year, driven by the consolidation of its newly acquired subsidiary.
Operating performance remained resilient, with operating profit rising to approximately N3.02 billion at the group level, reflecting continued discipline in cost management and operational efficiency.
Despite a softer consumer environment and lower volumes in the core domestic market, the company maintained a solid gross profit margin of 48 per cent, supported by improved cost efficiencies and disciplined commercial execution, underscoring the strength of its underlying business fundamentals.
This strategic expansion has already begun to contribute positively to earnings, with the subsidiary delivering operating profitability within the reporting period. While the company recorded a net loss at the standalone level, primarily driven by financing costs associated with its recent strategic investments, group-level profitability remained positive, with profit after tax of approximately N881 million, reflecting the early benefits of diversification and the strengthening of the brewer’s earnings base through its expanded portfolio.
Importantly, the firm continues to generate finance income from invested funds, reflecting prudent treasury management and supporting overall liquidity. This provides additional stability as the group advances its strategic initiatives.
Looking ahead, Champion Breweries says it remains confident in its outlook, noting that with the group structure now in place, improved earnings contributions from its expanded operations, and a clear focus on market execution, it expects a progressively stronger performance trajectory in the coming quarters.
Management reiterated its commitment to delivering sustainable value to shareholders, strengthening market positioning, and navigating prevailing economic conditions with discipline and resilience.
Economy
CBN at 27.5% is Forcing a Major Reset in Forex Trading Strategies Across Nigeria
Nigeria’s trading environment has changed sharply since the Central Bank of Nigeria pushed rates to 27.5%, and the impact is being felt across the currency market. A rate that high does more than tighten financial conditions. It changes how traders read momentum, how they manage risk, and how they think about the naira against the dollar. Reuters reported that the CBN raised the policy rate to 27.50% in November 2024 after a string of hikes, and later kept it there as inflation and exchange rate pressures remained central concerns.
For anyone active in Nigeria’s currency space, forex trading now requires a very different mindset. What worked in a looser money environment does not always work when rates stay this high. Liquidity behaves differently, sentiment shifts faster, and market participants become much more sensitive to inflation data, policy guidance, and reserve trends. Reuters also reported that the CBN has tied its tight stance to the need to control inflation and stabilize the market, while reforms have improved reserves and confidence in the foreign exchange system.
Why a 27.5% rate changes the market mood
A rate this high affects more than borrowing costs. It resets expectations. Traders start looking at the naira through a different lens because such an aggressive stance tells the market that policymakers are serious about defending stability, even if growth conditions become tougher. In Lagos and Abuja, where many traders track both official policy signals and real market pricing, that shift has become impossible to ignore.
Higher rates reshape risk appetite
When rates rise to this level, speculative behavior often becomes more cautious. Some traders reduce position sizes. Others stop chasing moves and wait for stronger confirmation before entering. Why does that happen? Because a tight policy environment tends to punish weak conviction and reward discipline.
There is also a psychological effect. A market with a 27.5% policy rate feels heavier. It is like driving on a road where every turn demands more care than before. That change in mood forces traders to become more selective, especially in a country like Nigeria where inflation and currency sentiment still move together closely. Reuters said inflation eased after a statistical rebase, but the central bank still held rates high because broader pressure had not disappeared.
The naira story is no longer just about panic
Nigeria’s currency narrative has also become more layered. Earlier fears were largely about shortages and disorder, but now traders are also watching reforms, reserves, and policy credibility. Reuters reported that net foreign exchange reserves rose strongly in 2025 and that the CBN said clearer rules and reforms had reduced distortions and volatility.
That matters because strategy changes when the market starts trusting policy a little more. Traders can no longer rely only on the old playbook of assuming one direction and staying there.
How trading strategies are being reset
The biggest reset is in time horizon. In a market shaped by tight policy, many traders become less comfortable with broad, lazy positioning. They look for cleaner setups and faster reactions instead. A currency market under heavy policy influence often rewards timing more than stubborn conviction.
Shorter setups are becoming more practical
Many Nigeria focused traders now pay closer attention to event driven opportunities. Central bank comments, inflation releases, reserve updates, and reform announcements matter more than they used to. Reuters reported in March 2026 that the CBN eased some foreign exchange rules for oil companies to improve market liquidity and confidence, another sign that policy decisions are still actively shaping the currency landscape.
That makes short and medium term strategy more relevant. You might see a naira move that looks technical on the surface, but underneath it is often responding to policy changes, liquidity shifts, or fresh confidence in reserves. In Nigeria, the chart and the macro story now feel more connected than before.
Risk management matters more than prediction
This is where serious traders separate themselves from hopeful ones. A high rate environment does not just reward the right view. It rewards survival. Traders in Port Harcourt or Lagos who stay too attached to a single bias can get caught when policy or liquidity changes suddenly alter the mood.
I have seen markets like this before. They look calm until they do not. Then the move comes fast. That is why many traders are adjusting stop placement, reducing leverage, and focusing more on capital protection than on chasing every opportunity.
The reset, in other words, is not only strategic. It is behavioral.
Why Nigeria’s market may keep evolving
The CBN’s policy stance has already pushed traders to adapt, but the story is still developing. Reuters reported in April 2025 that the central bank sold nearly $200 million to support the naira after tariff related market shocks, showing that officials remain willing to act when volatility becomes disruptive. Reuters also reported this month that the naira had been relatively stable, supported by dollar liquidity from bond investments and exporter repatriations.
Stability can create a different kind of opportunity
A more orderly market does not mean fewer opportunities. It means different ones. Instead of trading pure panic, participants may increasingly trade around policy credibility, flow trends, and relative stability. For Nigeria, that could mark an important shift.
That is why the 27.5% rate matters so much. It has forced traders to stop relying on old assumptions and start working with a market that is slowly becoming more policy driven, more selective, and in some ways more professional.
Conclusion
The CBN’s 27.5% policy rate is forcing a major reset because it changes how traders approach risk, timing, and market structure in Nigeria. High rates, stronger reserves, and ongoing reforms have made the naira story more complex than it was before, and that means strategy has to evolve as well.
For traders in Nigeria, the message is clear. This is no longer a market where old habits are enough. Tight policy has raised the standard, and the traders who adjust their methods are more likely to stay effective as the next phase of the currency story unfolds.
Economy
NASD Exchange Falls 0.22% After Investors Lose N4.8bn
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange weakened by 0.22 per cent on Tuesday, April 28, with the market capitalisation down by N4.8 billion to N2.420 trillion from N2.425 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) down by 9.01 points to 4,044.96 points from 4,053.97 points.
During the session, the price of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by N1.82 to N767.05 per share from N78.87 per share, while FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by N1.90 to N100.00 per unit from N98.10 per unit.
According to data, the value of trades increased by 265.7 per cent to N27.1 million from N7.4 million units, and the volume of transactions surged by 305.2 per cent to 1.3 million units from 319,831 units, while the number of deals decreased by 6.9 per cent to 27 deals from 29 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with the sale of 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.8 million units exchanged for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units traded for N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc also finished as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with a turnover of 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion.
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