Inflation to Drop to 11.32% in June on Base Effect—FSDH

July 8, 2019
inflation rate Nigeria

Modupe Gbadeyanka

For the past two straight months, inflation rate in Nigeria has been trending upward, but if what analysts at FSDH Research foresee is something to take seriously, then a downward movement of the rate should be expected when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases the figures for the month of June 2019 on Sunday, July 14, 2019.

In May 2019, inflation jumped to 11.40 percent, but FSDH Research said it expects this to drop to 11.32 percent in June 2019, attributing this on base effect.

The investment firm said even though prices of the consumer items increased in June 2019, they were at a slower rate between May and June 2019 than the rate of increase between May and June 2018.

It said the price monitor conducted on food and non-food items shows prices moved in varying directions in June compared with May. While the prices of some consumer goods increased faster in June compared with May 2019, the prices of a few consumer goods increased slower in June than in May.

“Our preliminary investigations show that the local prices of imported goods increased marginally in June over May because of the exchange rate adjustment on import duties. However, the marginal increase was not enough to accelerate the inflation rate.

“The Food Price Index that the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations published for the month of June 2019, shows that the prices of dairy products and oils declined significantly.

“The prices of meat, cereals and sugar, however, increased on the international market. Most of the decreases recorded on the international market were mainly as a result of increased export availabilities and limited import demand.

‘FSDH Research believes that the inflation rate will trend downwards barring any increase in the

electricity tariffs and pump price of Premium Motor Spirit.

“At the current inflation rate and given the desire of the CBN to maintain positive real yield on fixed income securities, FSDH Research believes the issuance of Commercial Papers (CPs) are attractive to corporate bodies.

“The high appetite that investors have for debt securities in the Nigerian financial market at the moment will ensure success of quality debt issuance.

“The Federal Government of Nigeria however, has to play its role to ensure infrastructure development, in particular an appropriate transport network, reliable electricity supply and security of lives and property. With these in place, the road to single-digit inflation rate will be smooth,” the Lagos-based company said.

Recall that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is targeting single-digit inflation rate for the Nigerian economy, reiterating the desire to achieve that target in the five-year plan it released a few weeks ago.

“In other words, any inflation rate in double-digit is considered high in our view. Given recent developments in the country, particularly in the agricultural sector, and farmers’ inability to move their produce to the market efficiently, it may be difficult to achieve a single-digit inflation rate in 2019.

“While the CBN is deploying strategies to influence the amount of money in circulation in a manner that will not be inflationary, we believe there are other key causes of high inflation in Nigeria which the CBN’s current policy may not be able to address,” it said.

Modupe Gbadeyanka

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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