Feature/OPED
Agusto Lists Challenges, Opportunities with African Continental Free Trade Agreement
By Agusto & Co
African nations have been optimistic about free trade agreements with western states such as the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), however, there has been less enthusiasm with intra-continental free trade agreements. While regional blocs such as East African Community (EAC) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have been in the frontline in pushing for sub-regional trade integration, the results are still far from exciting.
According to the Washington Post, most regional economic communities (RECs) are underperforming, with a low level of compliance by member states, which has delayed successful integration. The RECs also create a system of silos where regions seem to only pursue trade integration within their domains thus further accentuating trade divisions across the continent. These trade divisions have been well exploited by global giants especially China which has greater footprints across the continent simply because it has been able to build complex trade infrastructure with individual nations. By operating ineffectually in the silos of RECs, African nations have not been able to tap trade opportunities amongst themselves but also left their flanks open to western nations thus further worsening the trade imbalance of the continent. According to the UN Economic Commission on Africa, intra-African trade is likely to increase by 52% under the AfCFTA and will double upon the further removal of non-tariff barriers.
Challenges – Protectionists and the arguments of the one-sided coin
Nothing typifies the resistance to AfCFTA as much as Nigeria’s initial withdrawal from the signing ceremony in Kigali, capital of Rwanda in March 2018. President Muhammadu Buhari cancelled his attendance at the signing ceremony citing the need “to allow time for broader consultations”. The main trade union in the country – the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) further warned on the dangers of the trade agreement describing it as a “renewed, extremely dangerous and radioactive neo-liberal policy initiative”.
These fears stem from arguments around turning Nigeria into a dumping ground for goods from the rest of the continent especially countries with more advanced manufacturing capabilities such as South Africa and Morocco. While these fears may not be entirely out of place, they are actually being amplified and probably exaggerated. And this argument is also flawed on two major premises. Firstly, despite being a member of ECOWAS for decades, Nigeria has not become a dumping ground for goods manufactured in the region. Rather, its goods that originate from outside the sub-region but imported through neighbouring countries that are being dumped in Nigeria. This dumping is also driven by structural bottlenecks such as inefficiencies in the port and poorly conceived trade and tariff policies that leave Nigeria vulnerable to smuggling. Secondly, the AfCFTA is a trade agreement that not only opens up Nigeria’s borders but also opens up the borders of the other signatory Countries. Thus, while Nigeria will be receiving more volume of goods from the other Countries, Manufacturers in Nigeria will also gain an upside as they will be able to access a wider market across the Continent on the same terms.
Another challenge that may arise could be the loss of revenue from the collection of customs’ duties to the state, though this may be moderated by the long-term gains. Estimates by UNCTAD, indicate that while the elimination of all tariffs between African Countries would take an annual $4.1 billion out of the trading states’ coffers, it would create an overall annual welfare gain of $16.1 billion in the long run.
Despite the promise of long-term gains by AfCFTA, the biggest challenge to the free trade agreement has probably received the least coverage. The real barriers to AfCFTA will be the structural bottlenecks associated with intra-continental exports. This could vary from checkpoints across borders or aggressive trade policies that frustrate the free movement of goods and services. The president of Dangote Group, a conglomerate with interests mainly in Cement across the Continent, citing the frustrations and difficulties his group often goes through in exporting products to neighbouring African Countries, recommends that these bottlenecks must be addressed if Nigeria has to emerge a winner in AfCFTA. Another germane challenge that could also cap the growth potentials of AfCFTA will be currency conversions especially in the short to medium term. The glut of soft-currencies across the Continent increases the unattractiveness of these currencies outside their home borders. The AfCFTA framework must seek to resolve these caps to ensure this initiative can genuinely place the continent on the path of long-term prosperity.
AfCFTA and the Nigerian Capital Market – Retracing the old paths
Nigeria’s capital market is one of the oldest on the continent and quite a number of the listed Companies which are perceived as fundamental stocks by long term investors are mainly real sector multinationals. What is instructive about these fundamental stocks is that while many of these Companies enjoy strong positive perception as multinationals – a perception that is further consolidated by their big-ticket investments in local manufacturing – quite a number of these firms started off as trading posts in Nigeria.
Nigeria’s independence in the 1960s led to a new wave of promise which quickly attracted lots of global names into the country. Some of the prominent names that berthed in Nigeria around that time include Cadbury and Nestle, two global food giants. While these companies were mainly involved in trading (mainly imports) in Nigeria at the time, their operations subsequently expanded into local manufacturing. Manufacturing has a significant multiplier effect on any economy because it stimulates activities along the value chain. The likes of Nestle and Cadbury only invested in local manufacturing because their initial focus on trading clearly showed there was a strong business case to increase exposure to Nigeria. This strong business case led to the establishment of manufacturing plants.
Stretching further into history, companies such as Unilever Nigeria Plc and PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc had also started out as trading posts in the 19th Century in the pre-amalgamated Nigeria. With time, these companies also invested in local manufacturing.
By the 1970s, with greater investor confidence in the Nigerian economy following the petrodollar boom, many of these companies began to list their shares on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) thus creating new paths to wealth for Nigerian investors. The evolution of these multinationals from trading posts to manufacturing companies that eventually listed on the stock exchange offers germane lessons to today’s generation of policymakers and other advocates of protectionism.
And the lessons are clear. Firstly, AfCFTA will open up Nigeria’s market to the rest of the continent. And quite a number of Companies from across the continent may be attracted to Nigeria initially, but simply as trading posts. However, with time, as the promise of Nigeria unfolds for these Companies, many like the global multinationals ahead of them will evolve into manufacturing Companies that will lead to greater multipliers for the economy. And then, as long as the capital market continues to fulfil its capital formation roles, these companies may be inclined to list on the exchange, thus offering a new generation of investors increased access to wealth.
Positioning the Capital Market to tap into AfCFTA
The Nigerian capital market especially the Stock Market has long been derided by institutional investors as a shallow market with only a few fundamental Stocks. Nevertheless, it still remains one of the top five markets on the Continent by market capitalisation and the second in Sub-Saharan Africa. This throws up some significant upsides for the Nigerian Capital Market.
As the real sector and trading sector go continental, the financial sector especially the capital market must also begin to think continental. The Nigerian capital market must begin to position itself for cross border listings of some of the biggest companies across the continent whose home countries do not have developed capital markets. Part of the ways of stimulating these listings is by ensuring the capital market can fulfil its role of long-term capital formation. Other measures that will help stimulate investor confidence such as corporate governance and disclosure standards for listed corporations and protection of minority shareholders must also be put in place to attract these foreign listings.
Overall, as President Buhari leads Nigeria into AfCFTA at the Extra-Ordinary Summit of the African Union in Niamey, Niger Republic, Agusto & Co believes the country stands to gain significantly in the long run by being a signatory to the free trade agreement. And to policymakers, activists and businesses that may be worried about the prospects of increased trade and competition arising from AfCFTA, Nollywood – which has benefitted immensely from trade and competition across the continent – may just be the inspiration to clear the doubts that may arise.
Feature/OPED
Revived Argungu International Fishing Festival Shines as Access Bank Backs Culture, Tourism Growth
The successful hosting of the 2026 Argungu International Fishing Festival has spotlighted the growing impact of strategic public-private partnerships, with Access Bank and Kebbi State jointly reinforcing efforts to promote cultural heritage, tourism development, and local economic growth following the globally attended celebration in Argungu.
At the grand finale, Special Guest of Honour, Mr Bola Tinubu, praised the festival’s enduring national significance, describing it as a powerful expression of unity, resilience, and peaceful coexistence.
“This festival represents a remarkable history and remains a powerful symbol of unity, resilience, and peaceful coexistence among Nigerians. It reflects the richness of our culture, the strength of our traditions, and the opportunities that lie in harnessing our natural resources for national development. The organisation, security arrangements, and outlook demonstrate what is possible when leadership is purposeful and inclusive.”
State authorities noted that renewed institutional backing has strengthened the festival’s global appeal and positioned it once again as a major tourism and cultural platform capable of attracting international visitors and investors.
“Argungu has always been an iconic international event that drew visitors from across the world. With renewed partnerships and stronger institutional support, we are confident it will return to that global stage and expand opportunities for our people through tourism, culture, and enterprise.”
Speaking on behalf of Access Bank, Executive Director, Commercial Banking Division, Hadiza Ambursa, emphasised the institution’s long-standing commitment to supporting initiatives that preserve heritage and create economic opportunities.
“We actively support cultural development through initiatives like this festival and collaborations such as our partnership with the National Theatre to promote Nigerian arts and heritage. Across states, especially within the public sector space where we do quite a lot, we work with governments on priorities that matter to them. Tourism holds enormous potential, and while we have supported several hotels with expansion financing, we remain open to working with partners interested in developing the sector further.”
Reports from the News Agency of Nigeria indicated that more than 50,000 fishermen entered the historic Matan Fada River during the competition. The overall winner, Abubakar Usman from Maiyama Local Government Area, secured victory with a 59-kilogram catch, earning vehicles donated by Sokoto State and a cash prize. Other top contestants from Argungu and Jega also received vehicles, motorcycles and monetary rewards, including sponsorship support from WACOT Rice Limited.
Recognised by UNESCO as an Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity, the festival blends traditional fishing contests with boat regattas, durbar processions, performances, and international competitions, drawing visitors from across Nigeria and beyond.
With the 2026 edition concluded successfully, stakeholders say the strengthened collaboration between government and private-sector partners signals a renewed era for Argungu as a flagship cultural tourism destination capable of driving inclusive growth, preserving tradition, and projecting Nigeria’s heritage on the world stage.
Feature/OPED
$214Bn Missing, Institutions Silent: Is Accountability Dead in Nigeria?
By Blaise Udunze
Between 2010 and 2026, a staggering $214 billion, approximately N300 trillion in public funds, has been reported as missing, unaccounted for, diverted, unrecovered, irregularly spent, or trapped in non-transparent fiscal structures across Nigeria’s public institutions.
That figure is not speculative but a conservative estimate of unaccounted funds. It is drawn from audit reports, legislative probes, civil society litigation, executive directives, and investigative findings spanning more than a decade. If it is to go by the accurate figure, the true national loss is likely higher but difficult to quantify precisely due to data gaps, overlapping figures, and incomplete audits.
The challenge is that in many of the most prominent cases, prosecutions have stalled, hearings have dragged without resolution, investigations have gone cold, and no defining jail terms have etched accountability into Nigeria’s institutional memory. The irony is that the number is historic, the silence is louder. And the economic damage is cumulative.
The pattern stretches from the oil sector to social investment programmes, from the Nigeria Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) interventions to ministry-level expenditures. In 2014, between $10.8 billion and $20 billion in unremitted oil revenues linked to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation triggered national outrage. Under the then CBN governor, Lamido Sanusi, who warned that persistent oil revenue leakages were making exchange rate stability “extremely difficult.” He cautioned that without full remittances, the alternative would be currency devaluation and financial instability. This concern spans the 2010 to 2013 oil revenue period. That warning proved prophetic.
This is because, years later, the lack of transparency in the oil industry did not disappear, but rather it festered like cancer. It further led to the elongated audit queries, which have continued to trail the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, including unremitted revenues, questioned deductions, and management fee structures under the Petroleum Industry Act. With an extraordinary move aimed at blocking revenue leakages at source, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has recently issued an Executive Order suspending certain deductions and directing direct remittance of taxes, royalties, and profit oil into the Federation Account, which involves the reassessment of NNPC’s 30 per cent management fee and 30 per cent frontier exploration deduction under the Petroleum Industry Act.
Such presidential intervention underscores the scale of concern, which means that Nigeria cannot afford a structural lack of transparency in its most strategic revenue sector. But oil is only one chapter.
The Central Bank of Nigeria has faced some of the most far-reaching audit alarms in recent years. In suit number FHC/ABJ/CS/250/2026, the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) is asking the Federal High Court to compel the CBN to account for N3 trillion in allegedly missing or diverted public funds. The Auditor-General’s 2025 report cited failures to remit over N1.44 trillion in operating surplus to the Consolidated Revenue Fund, over N629 billion paid to “unknown beneficiaries” under the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, and more than N784 billion in overdue, unrecovered intervention loans.
There were also N125 billion in questioned intervention expenditures, irregular contract variations exceeding N9 billion, and procurement gaps running into hundreds of billions. The Auditor-General repeatedly recommended recovery and remittance. No date has been fixed for the hearing. Meanwhile, Nigeria continues to borrow.
Elsewhere, the House of Representatives has launched a probe into over N30 billion recovered during investigations into the National Social Investment Programme Agency (NSIPA). The funds, reportedly frozen during investigation, have not been remitted back into the Treasury Single Account, stalling poverty-alleviation schemes like TraderMoni and FarmerMoni. Millions of vulnerable Nigerians remain exposed while lawmakers search for money already “recovered.” The irony is staggering as funds are found, but programmes remain frozen.
A top discovery recently that put the nation on red alert was made by the Senate committee, which claimed to have found N210 trillion in financial irregularities in NNPC accounts between 2017 and 2023, including unaccounted receivables and accrued expenses. A critical concern is that, as of early 2026, this has sparked commentary but no clear prosecutions.
Only recently, in the power sector, SERAP has urged the President to probe alleged missing or unaccounted N128 billion at the Federal Ministry of Power and the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc. Of concern is that despite the enormous funds channelled in this sector, Nigeria’s chronic electricity instability persists, even as billions meant to stabilise the grid face audit scrutiny.
Across MDAs, audit reports between 2017 and 2022 flagged trillions in unsupported expenditures, unremitted taxes, unauthorised payments, and statutory liabilities never recovered. These sums are dizzying and are also alarming; N300 billion here, N149 billion there, N3.403 trillion across agencies, N30 trillion-plus Treasury discrepancies raised at the Senate level.
Individually, they shock. Collectively, they define a structural pattern. And patterns shape economies.
Nigeria operates with structural fiscal deficits and also lives with them routinely and comfortably. Expenditure persistently exceeds revenue. When public funds disappear, fail to be remitted, or are trapped outside constitutional channels, the deficit widens. The government must borrow to fill gaps created not only by low revenue, but by revenue leakage.
Debt servicing now consumes a disproportionate share of federal revenue. Borrowing meant for capital projects increasingly finances recurrent obligations. The country shifts from borrowing to build to borrowing to survive. Every missing naira compounds tomorrow’s liability.
The Treasury Single Account (TSA) was designed to plug such leakages. It consolidated government revenues under Section 80 of the Constitution into a unified framework. International financial institutions commended it as a landmark reform. Yet even today, the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, has admitted that substantial government funds remain outside the TSA and outside the CBN’s consolidated visibility. Until August 1, 2024, he revealed, the federal government could not fully see its own balance sheet at the apex bank. That admission should alarm any serious economy.
Fiscal lack of transparency constrains planning. It undermines monetary coordination. It weakens debt sustainability projections. It distorts policy responses. And when systems are in flux, money vanishes more easily.
Changing or weakening the TSA in such an environment would be catastrophic. Transitions create windows of vulnerability. Old accounts close. New accounts open. Reconciliation’s lag. Ghost contractors reappear. Double payments slip through.
Albeit, the government must learn to tread with caution as Nigeria’s institutional bandwidth is already strained by simultaneous tax reforms, exchange-rate adjustments, subsidy removal, and fiscal restructuring. One truth that cannot be argued is that layering additional structural upheaval onto fragile systems risks revenue loss that the country cannot afford. Investors are watching.
Credit markets evaluate not just numbers but institutional consistency. A nation that abandons or weakens its most credible fiscal reform sends a destabilising signal. Stability lowers borrowing costs. Institutional drift raises them. But beyond markets lies the human cost.
N300 trillion represents roads not built, power plants not completed, irrigation systems not funded, schools not modernised, and hospitals not equipped. It represents jobs not created and industries not catalysed. It represents stalled productivity and deferred growth.
When intervention loans remain unrecovered, agricultural output suffers. When power sector funds are unaccounted for, electricity remains unstable. When social investment funds are frozen, poverty deepens.
Inflation then compounds the pain. Revenue gaps push borrowing. Borrowing pressures, interest rates and by extension, liquidity misalignment fuel price instability. Citizens pay through higher food costs, transport fares, and rent. The poor pay first. The middle class erodes quietly.
Perhaps most corrosive is the trust deficit. When audit queries fade without visible accountability, tax morale weakens. Compliance declines. Cynicism hardens. A nation cannot modernise where trust in fiscal integrity is fragile.
Section 15(5) of the Constitution requires the abolition of corrupt practices. Financial Regulations mandate a surcharge and referral to anti-corruption agencies where public officers fail to account for funds. The Fiscal Responsibility Act empowers citizens to enforce compliance to ensure that government officials follow fiscal rules. But enforcement defines seriousness.
Nigeria’s problem is not a lack of audit findings. It is the distance between findings and finality.
Nations do not collapse overnight due to a lack of funds. They drift. Infrastructure decays incrementally. Debt rises gradually. Growth slows subtly. Confidence erodes quietly. Then one day, stagnation feels permanent. $214 billion (N300 trillion), sixteen years of recurring audit alarms. Few conclusive accountability outcomes are proportionate to the scale. Truly, the consequences have been less strong. For the same reason, the country witnessed President Tinubu nominating ex-NIA boss Ayodele Oke as ambassador despite a $43 million loot in an Ikoyi apartment.
See the research breakdown of some of the audit figures that reveal staggering sums as enumerated above:
– $10.8 billion and separately $20 billion in unaccounted oil revenues at the NNPC in 2014
– $1.1 billion controversial Malabu Oil and Gas oil deal in 2015
– $2.2 billion arms procurement irregularities in 2015
– N3.4 billion from IMF COVID-19 financing flagged in a 2020 audit.
– N149.36 billion, N37.2 billion, and multiple irregular MDA expenditures in 2020 alone.
– N300 billion cited in public audit concerns in 2017.
– N210 trillion in financial irregularities uncovered, N103 trillion in ‘accrued expenses’, and another N107 trillion in unaccounted ‘receivables’ (2017 -2023).
– N57 billion Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs – (2021)
– N3 trillion and N1.44 trillion flagged in 2022 audit issues involving the Central Bank of Nigeria.
– Nearly N630 billion under the Anchor Borrowers Programme is reportedly unrecovered.
– N784 billion in overdue intervention loans flagged.
– Over N3.403 trillion unaccounted for across federal MDAs between 2019 and 2021.
– Roughly 30 trillion+ in Treasury Single Account and Consolidated Revenue Fund discrepancies raised at the Senate level.
– N500 billion in unremitted oil revenues between 2019 and 2024.
– N80 billion tied to alleged fictitious contracts in the Accountant-General’s office.
– N69.9 billion in uncollected statutory tax liabilities.
– Billions more in unauthorised or undocumented expenditures across ministries.
The institutions differ. The years differ. The audit language differs. The pattern does not.
Nigeria’s economic future will not be determined solely by how much oil it produces, how many reforms it announces, or how many executive orders it signs. It will be determined by whether every naira earned enters the Federation Account transparently, whether every intervention loan is tracked and recovered, whether every surplus is remitted constitutionally, and whether every diversion carries consequences. Revenue generation matters. Revenue protection is destiny. Because when government funds go missing, nations do not stand still. They move backwards.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com
Feature/OPED
The Hidden Workforce of the 2026 Access Bank Lagos City Marathon
When the final runner crossed the finish line at the 11th edition of the Access Bank Lagos City Marathon (ABLCM), the applause began to fade. But for hundreds of workers across Lagos, the real work was just beginning.
Major highways had been closed to facilitate the event. Tens of thousands of runners moved through the city in a coordinated surge of athletic endurance. Thousands of bottles of water and energy drinks were distributed, alongside sachets containing essential medical supplies and medication. The race route itself was meticulously prepared, lined with banners, barricades, medical tents and precision timing systems that ensured safety, organisation and accurate performance tracking from start to finish.
What followed was the part that a few cameras lingered on, yet it remains one of the clearest indicators of institutional progress.
Within minutes of the race conclusion, coordinated sanitation teams fanned out across the marathon corridor. Their work went beyond sweeping. Waste was systematically sorted. Plastic bottles were separated from general refuse. Sachets were gathered in bulk. Collection trucks moved along predefined routes, ensuring rapid evacuation of waste. Temporary race infrastructure was dismantled with quiet precision.
In a megacity like Lagos, speed is a necessity. Urban momentum cannot pause for long. The ability to restore order quickly after an event of this magnitude reflects operational discipline across interconnected systems, municipal authorities, environmental agencies, private waste management partners and event coordinators.
Globally, large-scale sporting events are no longer evaluated solely by participation numbers or prize purses. Sustainability has emerged as a defining metric. Environmental responsiveness is now a core measure of credibility. Cities seeking tourism growth, foreign investment and international partnerships must demonstrate that scale does not compromise responsibility. The 2026 marathon provided a compelling case study in this evolution.
The clean-up operation itself generated meaningful economic activity. Temporary employment opportunities emerged for sanitation workers and logistics personnel. Recycling partners engaged in material recovery, reinforcing circular economy value chains. What was once viewed as routine waste disposal has evolved into a structured ecosystem of environmental services, a sector of increasing importance in modern urban economies.
This level of sustainability was the result of deliberate planning. Effective post-event recovery requires route mapping, waste volume projections, coordination between sponsors such as Access Bank Plc and municipal bodies, contingency planning for congestion points and clear communication protocols.
Each edition of the marathon has built on lessons from the last. International participation has expanded. Accreditation standards have strengthened. Media visibility has grown. Most importantly, environmental management has become embedded in the marathon’s operational framework rather than treated as an afterthought.
Progress rarely arrives in dramatic leaps, it advances through incremental improvements, refined systems and institutional learning. Just as elite runners close performance gaps through disciplined training, cities strengthen their global standing through consistent operational excellence.
The 2026 marathon, therefore, tells a story that extends far beyond athletic achievement. It is a story of coordination, sustainability as strategy rather than slogan, and the often unseen workforce, sanitation workers, planners, volunteers, security officials and environmental partners, whose discipline sustains the spectacle.
Because in the end, global cities are judged by how well they host and how responsibly they restore. On the marathon day in Lagos, it was the runners who demonstrated endurance and the systems, and the people behind them, who ensured that when the cheering stopped, the city kept moving.
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