Economy
Why Investors Should SELL Unilever Nigeria, HOLD Dangote Sugar Stocks
By Dipo Olowookere
Recently, the boards of Unilever Nigeria Plc and Dangote Sugar Plc released their financial statements for the first half of this year and while the former recorded a poor performance, the latter was below expectations.
For Unilever Nigeria, its total revenue went down by 11.36 percent to N42.66 billion from N48.12 billion in H1 2018 as a result of the firm’s dismal performance of its Household and Personal Care (HPC) unit, which fell by 18.05 percent due to intense price discounting amongst brands in the sub sector.
According to Meristem Research, when in the second quarter of the year the company made an aggressive marketing effort with a partnership with Jumia on Everyday Essentials, things marginally improved as the business segments as the food and HPC grew by 6.31 percent and 9.03 percent respectively.
Meristem Research noted that, “On a general note, the downward trend in consumer purchasing power foretells a tough environment for FMCGs as companies utilise price discounting strategies and sales promotion to edge out one another.
“Especially, the dismal performance of the HPC segment continues to weigh on the revenue generation capability of the company. Hence, we project a revenue growth of -7.00 percent in 2019, resulting in absolute 2019FY revenues of N86.40 billion.
“Given our expectation of a 29 percent reduction in 2019FY net profits, we forecast 2019FY EPS of N1.10 and 2019 target PE of 20x implying a target price of N22. This portends a downside of 31.26 percent from the closing price of N32 on August 6, 2019, hence we rate the stock a SELL.”
For Dangote Sugar, the revenue generated by the company went down by 4.42 percent to N80.36 billion from N84.08 billion in H1 2018.
According to Meristem Research, the performance on a regional basis was mixed with the Lagos and West regions suffering declines of 9.30 percent and 28.31 percent respectively as a result of increased competition and market share grabbing by other market players while the North and East grew by 10.42 percent and 7.01 percent respectively.
“As stated in our Q1:2019 earnings note, the implementation of alternative logistics such as barges and third-party trucks in clearing raw materials from the ports and factory continues to yield positive results as revenues grew by 10.67 percent from N38.15 billion in Q1:2019 and the streak of negative YoY revenue growth narrowed down to 1.68 percent from 7.27 percent in Q1:2019.
“Following the release of H1:2019 results, the performance of the company continues to stay in line with our expectation and as such, we retain our projected 7 percent growth in sales volume over 2018, however, with a lower average price of N12,000, implying 2019FY revenues of N149.33bn.
“The outlook is bleak with an expectation of lower revenues and profits at the end of the year. Given this outlook, market risk and company’s idiosyncratic risks, we have revised our target PE and 2019 FY EPS down to 5.7x and N1.67 respectively from 6.5x and N1.85 in Q1:2019.
“This indicates a target price of N9.55 with a downside of 2.60 percent from the closing price of N9.80 on August 7, 2019. Hence, we place a HOLD rating on the stock.”
Economy
Tinubu, Dangote Meet Over Oil Market Volatility as Petrol Hits N1,400
By Adedapo Adesanya
The president of the Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, met with President Bola Tinubu on Monday to discuss and address concerns about the growing volatility in the global oil market and its impact on Nigerians.
Petrol prices have jumped to as high as N1,400 per litre amid the continuous rise in prices of crude oil in the global market as a result of the Middle East war. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel due to compounding supply constraints, though it closed below the mark yesterday.
Mr Dangote, whose company controlled about 60 per cent of Nigeria’s domestic supply pre-war, speaking after the meeting, said that although Nigeria is not directly involved in the war, the ripple effects of global oil price fluctuations would inevitably be felt.
“It means quite a lot. We don’t have much to do with it, but I know the world is a global village. And it definitely will affect us, unfortunately, but we pray this situation will be sorted out,” he said after his visit to President Tinubu in Lagos yesterday.
He warned that a prolonged crisis could further destabilise economies, particularly in Africa, where fiscal buffers are limited, and debt pressures remain high.
“If it doesn’t de-escalate, we’ll end up paying high prices, like what I said earlier on CNN. Africa is very busy paying debt, and putting this again on top of us is going to add a lot of hardship on people, on the government, on the people, on everybody, for something that we have no involvement in.”
He stressed that energy costs are central to nearly all sectors of the economy, meaning sustained increases would have widespread and cascading effects on livelihoods and production.
He explained that governments could face mounting fiscal strain as subsidies rise and revenues fluctuate under unstable global oil market conditions.
Mr Dangote added that Africa’s rising debt burden could worsen under prolonged instability, further limiting fiscal space and weakening economic resilience.
“Africa is already grappling with debt, and additional shocks will only compound hardship for governments and the people,” he said.
He said escalating energy costs would disrupt nearly every sector, including small enterprises, manufacturing chains, logistics operations and household consumption patterns.
The business mogul noted that some countries were already adopting coping strategies such as reduced workdays, energy rationing and remote working arrangements.
Mr Dangote said such measures, while necessary, could reduce productivity, slow economic output and affect livelihoods, particularly among vulnerable populations.
He urged global leaders to prioritise de-escalation, stressing that many Africans rely on daily earnings and remain highly exposed to economic shocks.
Economy
SEC, NYSC to Create CDS Group on Investment Education for Corps Members
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A Community Development Service (CDS) group focused on investment education for corps members is to be established by the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) in partnership with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Both organisations recently sealed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for this new initiative, which will promote sound investment habits among Nigerian youths, equip corps members with essential financial knowledge and help them avoid fraudulent schemes.
Under the agreement, the NYSC and SEC will work together on joint awareness campaigns, utilising various channels and platforms, including social media, traditional media, and community outreach, to disseminate information on safe investment and expose fraudulent schemes.
They will also agree on mechanisms for sharing relevant data and reporting on the progress and impact of the collaborative initiatives.
Specifically, the capital market regulator will develop and provide relevant and up-to-date educational content, materials, and training modules on capital market operations, safe investment practices, and the identification and avoidance of Ponzi schemes.
The agency will also be responsible for the content, resources and funding of training sessions for selected corps members and NYSC supervisors who will serve as trainers and facilitators in their respective communities.
On its part, the NYSC will facilitate the integration of anti-Ponzi scheme education into its Education and Enlightenment CDS programme, which could be through dedicated sessions, workshops, or awareness campaigns during orientation camps and throughout the service year.
The Director General of SEC, Mr Emomotimi Agama, expressed satisfaction with the collaboration, saying it will promote financial literacy and sound investment habits among young Nigerians.
His counterpart at the NYSC, Brig-Gen Olakunle Nafiu, lauded the initiative, stressing that it will help in enhancing public awareness campaigns against illegal financial schemes across all Local Government Areas in the country, among other objectives.
Economy
Unlisted Securities Exchange Opens Week 0.84% Bullish
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange opened the week on a positive note after it appreciated by 0.84 per cent on Monday, March 23.
Trading activity returned yesterday after a two-day break last Thursday and Friday to celebrate the end of Ramadan.
The market capitalisation was up by N20.68 billion to N2.482 trillion from N2.461 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 34.68 points to 4,149.38 points from 4,114.75 points.
The bourse was bullish amid a 1.34 per cent decline in the share price of Geo-Fluids Plc at the close of transactions. The loss was offset by the 3.45 per cent surge in the value of FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc.
A look at the trading data indicated that the activity was weaker yesterday, as the trading volume, value, and number of deals all tumbled.
There was a 99.9 per cent slip in the volume of securities to 412,260 units from the 400.8 million units recorded in the preceding session. The value of securities fell by 99.4 per cent to N7.37 million from N1.2 billion, and the number of deals went down by 31.9 per cent to 32 deals from 47 deals.
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 38.7 million units sold for N2.4 billion. Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc followed with 400 million units valued at N1.2 billion, and Okitipupa Plc occupied the third spot with 6.4 million units traded for N1.2 billion.
Resourcery Plc closed the trading session as the most active by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units worth N415.7 million, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 131.1 million units exchanged for N505.6 million.
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