Economy
How to Solve Africa’s Power Distribution Problems
By Anastasia Walsh
Electrification is an on-going and foundational investment, and a necessary one to realize all modern-day development objectives. Despite bullish policies, the fact remains that over 640 million Africans lack access to electricity. The effect of this is apparent. It impedes economic growth; it inhibits the advancements of self-reliant local communities, and it threatens national security. African governments are beginning to rethink their electrification plans. Grid modernisation, specifically the deployment of microgrids in rural areas, provides a promising strategy.
The Centralized Utility Model Is Not Adequately Serving Africa’s Needs
Attempting to replicate the centralized utility models implemented in the U.S. and Europe has not succeeded in improving energy access across the continent. Despite this, it seems many governments and utilities wrongly maintain the position that the expansion of the traditional grid infrastructure is the solution. In areas where communities have access to the central grid, they still have to supplement the intermittency of the power with diesel generators. On the flip side, the utilities are financially strained because they are unable to collect revenues from their customers. The low rate of revenue collection is due to the unsustainable tariffs the providers impose on customers as a result of the political pressure exerted on them. This results in the utilities being unable to finance upgrades in infrastructure, further exacerbating the issues.
Those who favor the expansion of the central grid as the most effective means of increasing rates of electrification face the challenge of reconciling two contradicting positions. The first position is that increasing access requires lowering tariffs. The second position is that lowering tariffs will intensify the financial stress utilities are currently under. Neither of these positions is sustainable. The incorporation of microgrids into a hybrid system of electrification is the best solution.
Grid Modernisation and Microgrids
Microgrids are small-scale power grids that run on a combination of solar, wind, or biomass or fossil fuels to provide reliable power. They operate either independently from the main grid or can be synched to it at the same voltage to shift the energy and respond to peaks and troughs in supply and demand. This ensures there is no interruption in power supply, allowing communities to be more energy independent by cutting costs and providing reliable energy access.
Productive Use of Energy (PUE) is Key
The off-grid solar lighting market is thriving thanks to the falling prices of renewable energy equipment. The solar lighting market has been further bolstered by widespread deployment of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) payment systems that utilize mobile-money technology. These solar devices provide sufficient generation for low consumption needs like household lighting, charging cell phones, and the use of small household appliances. Despite its attractiveness to householders, off-grid solar lighting is currently not scalable. The deployment of microgrids will be necessary to provide the adequate output required to power commercial businesses, hospitals, schools. Demand for electricity from small industry and business, which is classified as the productive use of energy will determine the success of microgrids; without this demand, the deployment of microgrids will not be financially viable. Ensuring the Productive Use of Energy enhances the economic and social development impacts of microgrids and rural electrification in the wider context.
Leading The Way: Kenya and Nigeria
Africa is forecast to be the world’s fastest-growing market for microgrids at a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 27%, representing 1,145MW by 2027. Within the continent, Kenya and Nigeria are at the forefront of the grid modernisation revolution.
With strong renewable energy and microgrid policies, Kenya has doubled its energy access rates since 2014. To reach its goal of 100% electrification by 2030, Kenya should implement a hybrid-decentralized system. This entails a combination of traditional utility distribution and the deployment of an extensive network of microgrids. The prevalent use of mobile money in the region, if harnessed correctly will provide the best means of collecting payment of energy bills. Nigeria similarly has ambitions to drastically increase their generating capacity by 2030 with 30% of that planned to be from renewable sources. Microgrids are expected to provide 5.3GW of this increased generation capacity.
Nation-Specific Policies
To improve energy access, African nations should consider incorporating the following into their policies: First, targeting rural populations for distributed energy via microgrids; then implementing low-cost and low-barrier permitting and licensing rules with standardized quality control and operating requirements; and finally ensuring that electrification strategies are financially viable.
Decentralized/hybrid solutions such as microgrids are the most cost-effective solution. The PAYGO business model provides an efficient means for project developed to collect revenues from their investments. Despite the tendency to paint all sub-Saharan countries with the same brush, as it relates to electrification rates, this is especially inappropriate. When it comes to implementing electrification and grid modernisation strategies, policymakers should consider their countries unique geography, natural resources, climate, population density, and power demand patterns.
Anastasia Walsh is from International Energy Consultant in Johannesburg
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) is seeking protection from the federal government amid rising concerns over the impact of escalating Middle East tensions on Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, particularly risks linked to disrupted global shipping routes, volatile energy markets, and supply chain bottlenecks.
MAN noted, “Its vigilance regarding the escalating military tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. These events have significant implications for the global macroeconomic landscape, which can indirectly impact Nigeria.”
The director-general of MAN, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadir, expressed that this situation arises at a pivotal moment when Nigeria has seen its annual inflation rate positively ease to 15.10 per cent, and manufacturing capacity utilisation has begun to exceed the 60 per cent mark, saying, however, the current geopolitical turbulence poses challenges that require careful navigation to protect the economic progress achieved.
“Although these conflicts are occurring far from our shores, their economic consequences may directly influence the Nigerian economy.
“We are particularly attentive to issues surrounding global shipping disruptions, fluctuating energy markets, and potential supply chain bottlenecks that could challenge local production,” Ajayi-Kadir stated.
Mr Ajayi-Kadir further explained that the recent hostilities in the Middle East are reshaping the global energy and logistics environment.
“With critical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the global markets have become unsettled, reflected in rising Brent crude prices exceeding $84.50 per barrel, and increased global freight and war-risk insurance premiums as vessels seek safer routes,” he stated.
For Nigerian manufacturers, MAN DG added that the implications of these developments are immediate and significant, increasing production costs, saying that historically, disruptions in the U.S. and the Middle East have reverberated throughout the global economy, and Nigeria is no exception.
He noted that “while a rise in global oil prices could theoretically benefit Nigeria by bolstering foreign exchange reserves and contributing to the stability of the Naira, the current reality presents a complex challenge. Nigeria’s domestic crude production hovers around 1.3 to 1.4 million barrels per day due to ongoing structural challenges, limiting the ability to fully leverage potential gains.”
He disclosed that in terms of trade relations, the United States remains one of Nigeria’s most vital partners, stating that given the existing conflict, disruptions in this crucial trade relationship could lead to increased costs for global freight forwarding and longer lead times for imported raw materials, potentially resulting in imported inflation.
According to him, the manufacturing sector is poised to face a variety of immediate and complex challenges, including rising energy costs, which are particularly relevant given that manufacturers depend heavily on gas and diesel for effective operations.
“Additionally, increasing freight costs and longer shipping times are making it more expensive to procure raw materials. Furthermore, heightened costs for essential goods could diminish consumer purchasing power, presenting manufacturers with the challenge of rising production costs amid stagnant or declining sales.”
In identifying the sectors most likely to be affected, MAN emphasised that the impact of global conflicts is not uniformly distributed, adding that “while the entire real sector is likely to feel the pressure, specific groups such as the Chemical and Pharmaceuticals Sector and the Basic Metals, Iron, and Steel Sector may encounter unique challenges.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited witnessed 47 price gainers last week, marginally lower than the 48 recorded in the preceding week.
This occurred as the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation depreciated by 0.12 per cent on a week-on-week basis to 200,913.06 points and N128.969 trillion apiece due to profit-taking.
Similarly, all other indices finished lower except the main board, insurance, AFR Div Yield, energy, Lotus II, growth and commodity indices, which appreciated by 1.53 per cent, 2.22 per cent, 1.36 per cent, 1.93 per cent, 1.61 per cent, 2.31 per cent and 2.77 per cent, respectively, while the sovereign bond index closed flat.
Business Post reports that in the week, 45 equities shed weight compared with 43 equities in the previous week, while 56 stocks closed flat versus 57 stocks a week earlier.
The best-performing stock last week was Zichis, which gained 60.72 per cent to trade at N13.79. Premier Paints appreciated by 60.25 per cent to N37.50, John Holt rose by 59.92 per cent to N18.95, Legend Internet grew by 25.00 per cent to N7.50, and McNichols increased by 20.65 per cent to N7.42.
As for the worst-performing stock for the week, it was Livestock Feeds, which declined by 11.73 per cent to N7.15, Fidson depreciated by 9.97 per cent to N94.85, Cadbury Nigeria dropped 9.94 per cent to N63.00, Austin Laz stumbled by 9.89 per cent to N4.01, and Learn Africa lost 9.09 per cent to settle at N8.50.
A look at the activity chart showed that 3.950 billion shares worth N201.312 billion exchanged hands in 359,642 deals in the five-day trading week, in contrast to the 8.761 billion shares valued at N267.253 billion traded in 193,473 deals a week earlier.
Financial stocks dominated with 2.881 billion units sold for N102.259 billion traded in 139,093 deals, contributing 72.94 per cent and 50.80 per cent to the total trading volume and value apiece.
ICT equities transacted 230.539 million units worth N45.172 billion in 52,669 deals, and agriculture shares traded 191.927 million units valued at N6.626 billion in 16,471 deals.
Wema Bank, Access Holdings, and UBA were the busiest, with 1.448 billion units worth N43.191 billion in 28,436 deals, contributing 36.65 per cent and 21.45 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
By Dipo Olowookere
Nigerian stocks shrank by 0.02 per cent as a result of renewed selling pressure, after the consumer goods index crumbled by 0.89 per cent, and the banking space contracted by 0.23 per cent.
Business Post reports that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited weakened yesterday despite the energy sector closing 1.78 per cent higher, the insurance segment increasing by 0.31 per cent, and the industrial goods counter closing flat.
The All-Share Index (ASI) eased by 44.83 points to 200,913.06 points from 200,957.89 points, and the market capitalisation decreased by N29 billion to N128.969 trillion from N128.998 trillion.
eTranzact lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N20.70, Abbey Mortgage Bank declined by 10.00 per cent to N9.90, Cadbury Nigeria retreated by 10.00 per cent to N63.00, Eterna also fell by 10.00 per cent to N33.75, and DAAR Communications dipped by 9.50 per cent to N1.81.
Conversely, Premier Paints appreciated by 9.97 per cent to N37.50, Zichis gained 9.97 per cent to trade at N13.79, McNichols improved by 9.93 per cent to N7.42, John Holt chalked up 9.86 per cent to close at N18.95, and Trans Nationwide Express went up by 9.75 per cent to N2.59.
On the last day of the week, 595.2 million equities valued at N24.5 billion were transacted in 43,440 deals versus the 678.1 million equities worth N33.1 billion traded in 42,222 deals in the previous session.
This showed an improvement in the number of deals by 2.89 per cent, and a cut in the trading volume and value by 12.22 per cent and 25.98 per cent, respectively.
Wema Bank ended the day as the busiest stock after a turnover of 131.5 million units worth N3.5 billion, Legend Internet traded 41.6 million units valued at N339.2 million, Zichis sold 35.2 million units for N485.6 million, Access Holdings exchanged 29.4 million units worth N764.8 million, and Japaul transacted 21.5 million units valued at N74.6 million.
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