Economy
Concerns Grow as Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves Decrease to $38.3bn
By Dipo Olowookere
**May Drop to $37bn in Few Days’ Time
**Shed $4.5bn in 2019, $306m So Far in 2020
**Dangote Fears Devaluation Imminent
**No Cause for Alarm—CBN
Though the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said Nigerians should not panic over the gradual decline in the foreign reserves, observers have cautioned both the fiscal and monetary authorities not sleep with their eyes closed because it might spell doom for the country.
This is because if the depletion of the reserves continues with the steady fall, the nation, which is Africa’s largest economy, may fall into another recession under the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari.
During his first term in office as a civilian leader of the country, just after a year he was sworn into office in 2015, Nigeria went into an economic recession. However, a year later, 2017, Mr Buhari and his team led the nation out of the crisis.
One of the main reasons for sliding into recession was a decline in the price of crude oil at the global market coupled with decline in the volume of the commodity produced.
The period was when restive Niger-Delta youth were attacking oil facilities in the oil-rich region, making it difficult for Nigeria to meet its daily production, resulting into lesser revenue from the sale of crude oil, the country’s main source of foreign earnings.
But when federal government held meetings with stakeholders from that part of the country, the attacks reduced and Nigeria started producing up to 1.7 million barrels per day, resulting into more money.
In 2019, the average price of crude oil at the international market was around $59 per barrel, while the benchmark for the country’s budget was $55 per barrel. This year, the benchmark was put at $60 and the price has remained around $63 to $65.
But despite the excess recorded from the sale of crude oil last year, the external reserves have been reducing, making some observers to raise concerns, urging the central bank to do something fast to prevent a devaluation of the Naira, which the present government does not support.
Business Post reports that the apex bank has been taking from the reserves to support the local currency, making it stable around N360 per Dollar at most of the various segments of the foreign exchange market.
For example, at the beginning of a new week, the CBN regularly releases the sum of $210 million to the forex market, with wholesale sector normally getting $100 million, the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and the invisible segments receiving $55 million each. At the end of the week, it also injects over $200 million into the Retail Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS).
These interventions have contributed to the decline in the country’s reserves and the central bank has promised not to stop defending the Naira so as to avert currency speculations, which pushed the local currency exchange rate to over N500 to a Dollar over three years ago.
According to data obtained by Business Post from CBN, Nigeria’s external reserves have dropped about $306.1 million since the beginning of this year to $38.3 billion as at Friday, January 10, 2020.
In 2019 alone, the reserves depleted by $4.5 billion, depreciating to $38.6 billion at December 31 from $43.1 billion at January 2, 2019.
In November 2019, Business Post reported that Governor of the CBN, Mr Godwin Emefiele, told some potential investors in London, United Kingdom, that the devaluation of Naira would only be possible if the nation’s external reserves go below $30 billion and the international price of crude oil drops to $45 per barrel.
In 2017, President of Association of Bureau de Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Mr Aminu Gwadabe, said Mr Emefiele assured his members that the bank had no intention to devalue the Naira.
But Africa’s richest man, Mr Aliko Dangote, is already planning ahead of a possible devaluation of the Nigerian Naira by the CBN.
He recently told Mr David Rubenstein of Bloomberg TV that in order not to be caught off guard, he was considering getting an office space in New York, United States of America, to protect the wealth of the family, expressing concerns that a devaluation of the currency may weaken his local investments.
“In Africa, you know we have issues of devaluation, so we want to really preserve some of the family’s wealth,” Mr Dangote, 62, was quoted as saying on the David Rubenstein programme, noting that the office space in New York will help to diversify his business and avoid the risk of currency fluctuations on his home continent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira recorded its first relative gain against the Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) this week on Friday, March 28.
The domestic currency appreciated against the greenback by 65 Kobo or 0.04 per cent during the session to settle at N1,538.26/$1, in contrast to Thursday’s exchange rate of N1,538.91/$1 as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) boosted forex liquidity to stabilize the market.
Over the last few sessions, the local currency had depreciated due to FX liquidity squeeze in the absence of interventions from the central bank.
So far, interventions in the market this month have neared $1 billion in a bid to strengthen the Nigerian currency.
However, the Naira lost against the British Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday by N1.00 to sell for N1,991.87/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,990.87/£1 and against the Euro, it declined by N1.40 to quote at N1,660.99/€1, in contrast to the preceding session’s value of N1,659.59/€1.
At the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira gained N5 against the US Dollar yesterday to close at N1,555/$1 compared with the preceding trading day’s value of N1,560/$1.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was down on Friday amid a sell-off in US stocks due to poor economic data, with crypto-focused stocks also suffering heavy losses.
Continued macroeconomic woes weighed on the broader crypto market with the implementation of broad-scale US tariffs next week on April 2 by the administration of Mr Donald Trump, which compounded investor concerns across markets.
Ripple (XRP) lost 5.3 per cent to finish at $2.13, Solana (SOL) slumped by 4.8 per cent to trade at $126.89, Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped by 4.4 per cent to sell at $0.1755, and Binance Coin (BNB) depreciated by 4.2 per cent to $606.31.
Further, Litecoin (LTC) dropped 3.1 per cent to close at $86.21, Cardano (ADA) went down by 2.9 per cent to settle at $0.6869, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 2.5 per cent to $83,699.86, and Ethereum (ETH) slid by 2.2 per cent to $1,877.62, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rose by 0.17 per cent on Friday, March 28, spurred by a boost in the price of Nipco Plc and Geo-Fluids Plc.
Yesterday, the market capitalisation added N3.27 billion to close for the session at N1.915 trillion compared with the previous day’s N1.912 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 5.66 points to 3,316.17 points from Thursday’s 3,310.51 points.
Nipco Plc gained N19.50 to finish at N220.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N200.50 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc grew by 20 Kobo to sell at N2.70 per unit, in contrast to the previous session’s N2.50 per unit, while UBN Property Plc lost 20 Kobo to close the day at N1.98 per share versus the N2.20 per share it was sold a day earlier.
Trading data showed an increase of 76.8 per cent in the volume of securities transacted to 1.3 million units from the 712,439 units traded in the previous trading day, the value of transactions slid by 71.2 per cent to N8.8 million from the N30.5 million recorded in the preceding day, and the number of deals went down by 76.1 per cent to 11 deals from the 46 deals recorded a day earlier.
When the bourse ended for the session, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 533.9 million units valued at N520.9 million, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with the sale of 70.0 million units worth N23.8 million, and Geo Fluids Plc with 44.1 million units sold for N89.0 million.
The most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis was FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with the sale of 13.7 million units valued at N528.6 million, trailed by Impresit Bakolori Plc with a turnover of 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.8 million units sold for N364.2 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices fell on Friday due to worries that the US tariff war could spark a global recession, as America put pressure on the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as Venezuela and Iran.
During the session, Brent crude futures went down by 40 cents or 0.5 per cent to $73.63 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) dropped 56 cents or 0.8 per cent to close at $69.36 a barrel.
The US President, Mr Donald Trump, plans to announce reciprocal tariffs targeting a wide range of imports, effective April 2.
For instance, JPMorgan analysts said in a note to its clientele that the trade war has investors worried about a potential recession.
“Concerns about a trade war, coupled with elevated U.S. policy uncertainty, are weighing heavily on sentiment,” the bank said.
It added that although the risk of recession was elevated, high-frequency oil demand indicators have held up relatively well for now.
Regardless, the possibility sent jitters to traders.
Meanwhile, traders continued to look at escalating US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran.
The Trump administration’s decision to impose a 25 per cent tariff on countries importing Venezuelan crude sent ripples through the physical market.
India’s Reliance Industries, the operator of the world’s largest refining complex, halted Venezuelan imports in response, reinforcing fears of a looming supply squeeze.
Also, the US renewed enforcement of Iranian oil sanctions—targeting refiners and shipping linked to China—further tightened available barrels.
The US has issued four rounds of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil sales since Mr Trump’s return to the White House.
The combined impact from both measures threatens to cut off hundreds of thousands of barrels per day from the global market, with Chevron’s potential 200,000 barrels per day production loss in Venezuela adding to the pressure.
The Trump administration extended the deadline to May 27 for US producer Chevron to wind down operations in Venezuela.
In addition, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) will likely stick to its plan to raise oil output for a second consecutive month in May.
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