World
Research Foresees Many Potential Benefits of AfCFTA for Nigeria
A research from Baker McKenzie and Oxford Economics has expressed optimism that once fully implemented, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will unlock significant but uneven growth opportunities on the continent.
The survey titled AfCFTA’s $3 trillion Opportunity: Weighing Existing Barriers against Potential Economic Gains said countries with good trade integration and open economies are most likely to benefit first from lower trade tariffs.
However, it pointed out that numerous obstacles across the continent mean that the tangible benefits of the agreement will likely only be realized from 2030.
“Nigeria’s first obstacle is that although the AfCFTA agreement has been signed, it is yet to be ratified, so it does not have the force of law in the country.
“Section 12 of the Constitution states that an international treaty or agreement entered into by Nigeria will not have automatic application in the country unless the treaty or agreement has been domesticated by an Act of the National Assembly.
“The AfCFTA is expected to take effect in July 2020, but no timeline has been set as yet for the implementation of the AfCFTA Agreement in Nigeria,” a partner at Templars law firm in Lagos, Ijeoma Uju, commented at the African Trade Show in Lagos, which was hosted by global law firm Baker McKenzie and Templars in Nigeria.
Mr Mattias Hedwall, Partner and Global Chair of Baker McKenzie’s International Commercial & Trade Group, noted at the event in Lagos that countries that have created more open, business-friendly environments stand to make the biggest gains from AfCFTA.
“The AfCFTA agreement will create the world’s largest free trade zone by number of countries and is expected to revolutionise trade across the continent.
“Once implemented, it will lead to sustainable socio-economic development, increased diversification, a boost in investment, trade liberalisation, the industrialisation of African economies, the establishment of new cross-border value chains and better insulation from global shocks,” he said.
Trade between countries in Africa, however is currently not high. Baker McKenzie’s research shows how trade links between Africa and the rest of the world are, at present, often stronger than trade between countries on the continent. African nations currently tend to trade more with Europe (35%) and Asia (31%) than with neighbouring markets. In contrast, less than a fifth of African countries’ exports are headed to other countries on the continent.
“These intracontinental trade shortcomings underscore the extent of lost revenue and development opportunities for African countries. They also highlight the benefits of supporting the AfCFTA and working together towards its successful implementation,” explained Hedwall.
The research compares Africa’s 20 largest economies in terms of the share of exports destined for other economies on the continent. Some economies, such as Uganda and Zimbabwe, buck the overall trend, trading more with their neighbours than other African nations do.
“Yet, their economies are small in contrast to those of Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, which together represent more than half of the continent’s GDP.
“Egypt and Nigeria have very limited trade relationships with their African peers, because as major fuel exporters, they are more focused on exports outside the continent.
“Over three quarters of African exports to the rest of the world are heavily focused on natural resources, primarily raw materials.
“In contrast, a look at African imports from outside the continent reveals that manufacturing products, industrial machinery and transport equipment constitute over 50% of Africa’s combined needs.
“Currently, Africa’s external imports account for more than half of the total volume of imports, with the most important suppliers being Europe (35%), China (16%) and the rest of Asia including India (14%).
“By contrast imports from other parts of Africa account for only 16% of total merchandise imports,” said event panellist Virusha Subban, a Partner specialising in Customs and Trade at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg.
“Manufacturing GDP represents on average only 10% of GDP in Africa. This means that limited production capabilities within Africa are currently being compensated for through foreign imports.
“Yet, this manufacturing deficit could be eventually satisfied within the continent and enabled by AfCFTA. Manufactured products currently exported to African countries by their peers, primarily industrial machinery and motor vehicles, represent a third of the total trade flow in Africa.
“But a significant share of these intraregional exports of manufactured goods are re-exports of imported manufactured products from the rest of the world,” she said.
“This shows that African nations do not trade more with each other because of a misalignment between what various African countries need and what is produced on the continent.
“This misalignment signals missed opportunities to reduce foreign imports from outside Africa and increase trade flows within the continent. For AfCFTA to succeed fully, more countries need to diversify their production of goods to better match the import needs of their continental neighbours,” she noted.
Ijeoma noted further, “One of the benefits of the trade agreement for Nigeria is that the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers will grant Nigerian businesses access to the continental market.
“A further benefit includes that Nigeria will secure a more balanced and sustainable export base by moving away from extractive commodities, such as oil and minerals, which have traditionally accounted for most of its exports.
“Manufacturers and producers will also benefit from economies of scale and access to cheaper raw materials and intermediate inputs and competition in the quality of good and service will improve. Jobs will be created, the platform for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) integration into the regional and continental value chains will be expanded.
“Additionally, it will provide access to new dispute resolution mechanisms and will result in the progressive liberisation of the service sectors.”
The research underscores the importance of also addressing non-tariff barriers to intra-regional trade. Some of the most significant non-tariff barriers to AfCFTA are inadequate infrastructure, poor trade logistics, onerous regulatory requirements, volatile financial markets, regional conflict and complex and corrupt customs procedures.
These can be even more detrimental to trade expansion than tariff measures. As such, AfCFTA is expected to act as a strong impetus for African governments to address their infrastructure needs as well as to overhaul regulation relating to tariffs, bilateral trade, cross-border initiatives and capital flows. Both domestic and foreign trade will benefit from reforms to regulation, political climate and trade policies that enhance competitiveness and improve the ease of doing business.
“Nigeria will be better positioned to benefit from AfCFTA once it improves the business environment and addresses gaps in its transport and utilities infrastructure,” noted Ijeoma.
“We have to be realistic about timeframes, however, as effective solutions will take years, given limited financial capacity in many countries, high risks to private financing of infrastructure, political hurdles, administration shortfalls and lack of resources.
“So, while there are still numerous challenges to be resolved, we expect that if the barriers can be addressed, the next decade will see the growth of AfCFTA into one world’s most exciting new global trading zones,” added Hedwall.
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
Despite geopolitical complexities, tensions and pressure, Russia’s military arms and weaponry sales earned approximately $15 billion at the closure of 2025, according to Kremlin report. At the regular session, chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Jan. 30, the Commission on Military and Technical Cooperation with Foreign Countries analyzed the results of its work for 2025, and defined plans for the future.
It was noted that the system of military-technical cooperation continued to operate in difficult conditions, and with increased pressure from the Western countries to block business relations with Russia. The meeting, however, admitted that export contracts have generally performed sustainably. Russian military products were exported to more than 30 countries last year, and the amount of foreign exchange exceeded $15 billion.
Such results provide an additional opportunity to direct funds to the modernization of OPC enterprises, to the expansion of their production capacities, and to advanced research. It is also important that at these enterprises a significant volume of products is civilian products.
The Russian system of military-technical cooperation has not only demonstrated effectiveness and high resilience, but has created fundamental structures, which allow to significantly expand the “geography” of supplies of products of military purpose and, thus strengthen the position of Russia’s leader and employer advanced weapons systems – proven, tested in real combat conditions.
Thanks to the employees of the Federal Service for Military Technical Cooperation and Rosoboronexport, the staff of OPC enterprises for their good faith. Within the framework of the new federal project “Development of military-technical cooperation of Russia with foreign countries” for the period 2026-2028, additional measures of support are introduced. Further effective use of existing financial and other support mechanisms and instruments is extremely important because the volumes of military exports in accordance with the 2026 plan.
Special attention would be paid to the expansion of military-technological cooperation and partnerships, with 14 states already implementing or in development more than 340 such projects.
Future plans will allow to improve the characteristics of existing weapons and equipment and to develop new promising models, including those in demand on global markets, among other issues – the development of strategic areas of military-technical cooperation, and above all, with partners on the CIS and the CSTO. This is one of the priority tasks to strengthen both bilateral and multilateral relations, ensuring stability and security in Eurasia.
From January 2026, Russia chairs the CSTO, and this requires working systematically with partners, including comprehensive approaches to expanding military-technical relations. New prospects open up for deepening military-technical cooperation and with countries in other regions, including with states on the African continent. Russia has been historically strong and trusting relationships with African countries. In different years even the USSR, and then Russia supplied African countries with a significant amount of weapons and military equipment, trained specialists on their production, operation, repair, as well as military personnel.
Today, despite pressure from the West, African partners express readiness to expand relations with Russia in the military and military-technical fields. It is not only about increasing supplies of Russian military exports, but also about the purchase of other weapons, other materials and products. Russia has undertaken comprehensive maintenance of previously delivered equipment, organization of licensed production of Russian military products and some other important issues. In general, African countries are sufficient for consideration today.
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Donald Trump has named Mr Kevin Warsh as the successor to Mr Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve chair, ending a prolonged odyssey that has seen unprecedented turmoil around the central bank.
The decision culminates a process that officially began last summer but started much earlier than that, with President Trump launching a criticism against the Powell-led US central bank almost since he took the job in 2018.
“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best,” Mr Trump said in a Truth Social post announcing the selection.
US analysts noted that the 55-year old appear not to ripple market because of his previous experience at the apex bank as Governor, with others saying he wouldn’t always do the bidding of the American president.
If approved by the US Senate, Mr Warsh will take over the position in May, when Mr Powell’s term expires.
Despite having argued for reductions recently, “Warsh has a long hawkish history that markets have not forgotten,” one analyst told Bloomberg.
President Trump has castigated Mr Powell for not lowering interest rates more quickly. His administration also launched a criminal investigation of Powell and the Federal Reserve earlier this month, which led Mr Powell to issue an extraordinary rebuke of President Trump’s efforts to politicize the independent central bank.
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
Donald Trump has been leading the United States as its president since January 2025. Washington’s priority is to Make America Great Again (MAGA). Trump’s tariffs have rippled many economies from Latin America through Asian region to the continent of Africa. Trump’s Davos speech has explicitly revealed building a ‘new world order’ based on dominance rather than trust. He has also initiated whirlwind steps to annex Greenland, while further created the Board of Peace, aimed at helping end the two-year war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and to oversee reconstruction. Trump is handling the three-year old Russia-Ukraine crisis, and other deep-seated religious and ethnic conflicts in Africa.
These emerging trends, at least in a considerable short term, are influencing BRICS which has increased its geopolitical importance, and focusing on uniting the countries in the Global East and Global South. From historical records, BRICS, described as non-western organization, and is loosing its coherence primarily due to differences in geopolitical interests and multinational alignments, and of course, a number of members face threats from the United States while there are variations of approach to the emerging worldwide perceptions.
In this conversation, deputy director of the Center for African Studies at Moscow’s National Research University High School of Economics (HSE), Vsevolod Sviridov, expresses his opinions focusing on BRICS agenda under India’s presidency, South Africa’s G20 chairmanship in 2024, and genegrally putting Africa’s development priorities within the context of emerging trends. Here are the interview excerpts:
What is the likely impact of Washington’s geopolitics and its foreign policy on BRICS?
From my perspective, the current Venezuela-U.S. confrontation, especially Washington’s tightened leverage over Venezuelan oil revenue flows and the knock-on effects for Chinese interests, will be read inside BRICS as a reminder that sovereign resources can still be constrained by financial chokepoints and sanctions politics. This does not automatically translate into BRICS taking Venezuela’s side, but it does strengthen the bloc’s long-running argument for more resilient South-South trade settlement, diversified energy chains, and financing instruments that reduce exposure to coercive measures, because many African and other developing economies face similar vulnerabilities around commodities, shipping, insurance, and correspondent banking. At the same time, BRICS’ expansion makes consensus harder: several members maintain significant ties with the U.S., so the most likely impact is a technocratic push rather than a loud political campaign.
And highlighting, specifically, the position of BRICS members (South Africa, Ethiopia and Egypt, as well as its partnering African States (Nigeria and Uganda)?
Venezuela crisis urges African members to demand that BRICS deliver usable financial and trade tools. For South Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt, the Venezuela case is more about the precedent: how quickly external pressure can reshape a country’s fiscal room, debt dynamics, and even investor perceptions when energy revenues and sanctions compliance collide. South Africa will likely argue that BRICS should prioritize investment, industrialization, and trade facilitation. Ethiopia and Egypt, both debt-sensitive and searching for FDI, will be especially attentive to anything that helps de-risk financing, while avoiding steps that could trigger secondary-sanctions anxieties or scare off diversified investors.
Would the latest geopolitical developments ultimately shape the agenda for BRICS 2026 under India’s presidency?
India’s 2026 chairmanship is already framed around “Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability,” and Venezuela’s shock (paired with broader sanction/market-volatility lessons) will likely sharpen the resilience part. From an African perspective, that is an opportunity: South Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt can press India to translate the theme into deliverables that matter on the ground: food and fertilizer stability, affordable energy access, infrastructure funding. India, in turn, has incentives to keep BRICS focused on economic problem-solving rather than becoming hostage to any single flashpoint. So the Venezuela episode may function as a cautionary case study that accelerates practical cooperation where African members have the most to gain. And I would add: the BRICS agenda will become increasingly Africa-centered simply because Africa’s weight globally is rising, and recent summit discussions have repeatedly highlighted African participation as a core Global South vector. South Africa’s G20 chairmanship last year explicitly framed around putting Africa’s development priorities high on the agenda, further proves this point.
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