World
Research Foresees Many Potential Benefits of AfCFTA for Nigeria
A research from Baker McKenzie and Oxford Economics has expressed optimism that once fully implemented, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will unlock significant but uneven growth opportunities on the continent.
The survey titled AfCFTA’s $3 trillion Opportunity: Weighing Existing Barriers against Potential Economic Gains said countries with good trade integration and open economies are most likely to benefit first from lower trade tariffs.
However, it pointed out that numerous obstacles across the continent mean that the tangible benefits of the agreement will likely only be realized from 2030.
“Nigeria’s first obstacle is that although the AfCFTA agreement has been signed, it is yet to be ratified, so it does not have the force of law in the country.
“Section 12 of the Constitution states that an international treaty or agreement entered into by Nigeria will not have automatic application in the country unless the treaty or agreement has been domesticated by an Act of the National Assembly.
“The AfCFTA is expected to take effect in July 2020, but no timeline has been set as yet for the implementation of the AfCFTA Agreement in Nigeria,” a partner at Templars law firm in Lagos, Ijeoma Uju, commented at the African Trade Show in Lagos, which was hosted by global law firm Baker McKenzie and Templars in Nigeria.
Mr Mattias Hedwall, Partner and Global Chair of Baker McKenzie’s International Commercial & Trade Group, noted at the event in Lagos that countries that have created more open, business-friendly environments stand to make the biggest gains from AfCFTA.
“The AfCFTA agreement will create the world’s largest free trade zone by number of countries and is expected to revolutionise trade across the continent.
“Once implemented, it will lead to sustainable socio-economic development, increased diversification, a boost in investment, trade liberalisation, the industrialisation of African economies, the establishment of new cross-border value chains and better insulation from global shocks,” he said.
Trade between countries in Africa, however is currently not high. Baker McKenzie’s research shows how trade links between Africa and the rest of the world are, at present, often stronger than trade between countries on the continent. African nations currently tend to trade more with Europe (35%) and Asia (31%) than with neighbouring markets. In contrast, less than a fifth of African countries’ exports are headed to other countries on the continent.
“These intracontinental trade shortcomings underscore the extent of lost revenue and development opportunities for African countries. They also highlight the benefits of supporting the AfCFTA and working together towards its successful implementation,” explained Hedwall.
The research compares Africa’s 20 largest economies in terms of the share of exports destined for other economies on the continent. Some economies, such as Uganda and Zimbabwe, buck the overall trend, trading more with their neighbours than other African nations do.
“Yet, their economies are small in contrast to those of Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, which together represent more than half of the continent’s GDP.
“Egypt and Nigeria have very limited trade relationships with their African peers, because as major fuel exporters, they are more focused on exports outside the continent.
“Over three quarters of African exports to the rest of the world are heavily focused on natural resources, primarily raw materials.
“In contrast, a look at African imports from outside the continent reveals that manufacturing products, industrial machinery and transport equipment constitute over 50% of Africa’s combined needs.
“Currently, Africa’s external imports account for more than half of the total volume of imports, with the most important suppliers being Europe (35%), China (16%) and the rest of Asia including India (14%).
“By contrast imports from other parts of Africa account for only 16% of total merchandise imports,” said event panellist Virusha Subban, a Partner specialising in Customs and Trade at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg.
“Manufacturing GDP represents on average only 10% of GDP in Africa. This means that limited production capabilities within Africa are currently being compensated for through foreign imports.
“Yet, this manufacturing deficit could be eventually satisfied within the continent and enabled by AfCFTA. Manufactured products currently exported to African countries by their peers, primarily industrial machinery and motor vehicles, represent a third of the total trade flow in Africa.
“But a significant share of these intraregional exports of manufactured goods are re-exports of imported manufactured products from the rest of the world,” she said.
“This shows that African nations do not trade more with each other because of a misalignment between what various African countries need and what is produced on the continent.
“This misalignment signals missed opportunities to reduce foreign imports from outside Africa and increase trade flows within the continent. For AfCFTA to succeed fully, more countries need to diversify their production of goods to better match the import needs of their continental neighbours,” she noted.
Ijeoma noted further, “One of the benefits of the trade agreement for Nigeria is that the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers will grant Nigerian businesses access to the continental market.
“A further benefit includes that Nigeria will secure a more balanced and sustainable export base by moving away from extractive commodities, such as oil and minerals, which have traditionally accounted for most of its exports.
“Manufacturers and producers will also benefit from economies of scale and access to cheaper raw materials and intermediate inputs and competition in the quality of good and service will improve. Jobs will be created, the platform for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) integration into the regional and continental value chains will be expanded.
“Additionally, it will provide access to new dispute resolution mechanisms and will result in the progressive liberisation of the service sectors.”
The research underscores the importance of also addressing non-tariff barriers to intra-regional trade. Some of the most significant non-tariff barriers to AfCFTA are inadequate infrastructure, poor trade logistics, onerous regulatory requirements, volatile financial markets, regional conflict and complex and corrupt customs procedures.
These can be even more detrimental to trade expansion than tariff measures. As such, AfCFTA is expected to act as a strong impetus for African governments to address their infrastructure needs as well as to overhaul regulation relating to tariffs, bilateral trade, cross-border initiatives and capital flows. Both domestic and foreign trade will benefit from reforms to regulation, political climate and trade policies that enhance competitiveness and improve the ease of doing business.
“Nigeria will be better positioned to benefit from AfCFTA once it improves the business environment and addresses gaps in its transport and utilities infrastructure,” noted Ijeoma.
“We have to be realistic about timeframes, however, as effective solutions will take years, given limited financial capacity in many countries, high risks to private financing of infrastructure, political hurdles, administration shortfalls and lack of resources.
“So, while there are still numerous challenges to be resolved, we expect that if the barriers can be addressed, the next decade will see the growth of AfCFTA into one world’s most exciting new global trading zones,” added Hedwall.
World
Russia-Africa Dialogue: Untapped Prospects for Economic Cooperation
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
At the St Petersburg International Economic Forum 2026, the traditional “Russia-Africa Business Dialogue”, which was initiated in 2016, will deliberate aspects of forging economic cooperation between Russia and African countries. For a decade since its creation, this platform has practically discussed most pertinent roadblocks, highlighted the economic sectors, and outlined the prospects. The significant issues have also been treated at the first and second Russia-Africa summits.
As Moscow prepares to hold the next Russia-Africa summit in October, it is quite clear that Russia has still not worked out financial mechanisms to support its investments across Africa. Generally, the federal strategy for this area has been mapped out, Russian investors understand where to invest in Africa, but lacks extremely the financial motivation and approach to integrate young people into the business environment. Other constraining factors include a lack of financial support instruments the suitable environment for experience sharing and collaboration. At the same time, there are reports that point to a broad range of factors that hinder the development of youth entrepreneurship.
Historically, Russia–Africa relations have evolved through distinct phases after phases. The latest phase began from the first Russia-Africa summit through the second, and is currently moving to the third summit in October. As part of the strategic preparations, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was the guest of Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. Russia and Tanzania have had good relations, but it has been more than a century since the last state visit of a Tanzanian leader to Russia. From the historical records, Mwalimu Nyerere visited in 1969. As a result, Samia Hassan’s official working visit had a special historic significance for the bilateral relations. “We see this as a very positive sign,” noted Putin. Further to that, Samia Hassan was decorated with an honorary doctorate degree (Doctor Honoris Causa) at the Russian Peoples Friendship University, expressed gratitude for the political solidarity, and underlined Russia for the great contribution which it provided during the African political liberation in the 60s.
Tanzania’s Distinctive Profile
Sergei Kiriyenko, the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration who oversees the department, visited Tanzania after the November 2025 elections. In addition, Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov called Tanzania “one of the key partners on the African continent,” recalling that it is home to approximately 70 million people. Samia’s visit to Russia is a victory for Russian diplomacy in Africa, as Tanzania is one of those allies that strengthen Moscow, says Andrey Maslov, Director of the HSE Centre for African Studies. According to the expert, cooperation is based on mutual benefit, and Tanzania does not require assistance. The country is among the continent’s economic leaders, distinguished by high growth rates, a stable political system, and a friendly attitude towards Russia. Russia’s interest in Tanzania is largely due to its geographic location and access to the Indian Ocean. The port of Dar es Salaam is considered a key transport hub in East Africa, serving transit routes to the East African Community (EAC) countries, along with the Kenyan port of Mombasa. Given Tanzania’s population, the EAC’s combined market represents over 300 million people, and the potential for expanding trade lies primarily in agricultural products, fertilisers, and basic industrial goods.
Africa’s participation at the St Petersburg 29th forum is very unique, with the majority from East and Southern Africa. The Director General of the Tanzania Investment and Special Economic Zones Authority (TISEZA), Gilead J. Teri, noted that the Tanzanian delegation has a unique opportunity to advance its agenda and strengthen bilateral relations. The forum gave a powerful boost to trade and economic cooperation. Tanzania presented its investment potential to the Russian business community. Therefore, it could be said that bilateral relations between Russia and Tanzania are flourishing and developing dynamically today.
Eastern and Southern Africa’s Dimensions
While it envisages strengthening ties in a broad range of fields, targeting the Eastern and Southern regions by utilising Tanzania as the gateway, Russia shows that the key partners in that part of Africa. Russia’s attributes for raising investment relations are clear: stability, untapped resources and human capital.
Putin’s meeting with Tanzania’s Samia Hassan, aiming at lifting up bilateral cooperation, which symbolises a new qualitative stage or a new chapter in the relations between Russia, Tanzania and the entire SADC. “Africa is an important partner for Russia, a participant in the emerging and sustainable polycentric architecture of the world order. Our relations with the states of that continent are valuable in their own right and should not be subject to the fluctuations on the international arena,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said long time ago at the Russia-Africa civil/public gathering held in 2018, in attendance was Stergomena Lawrence Tax, who headed the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
“We are aware that our African friends hold the same views. Relying on the accumulated experience of productive cooperation, Russian diplomats seek to pursue a consistent policy for deepening the range of Russia-Africa relations,” he added. Lavrov said it is necessary to maximise the potential of public, cultural and business diplomacy in the interests of strengthening and expanding the mutually beneficial ties between Russia and African states while invariably adhering to the principle of African solutions to African problems, formulated by the Africans themselves.
Stergomena Lawrence, however, observed that Russia has not been that visible in the region as compared to China, India or Brazil. But it is encouraging that Russia has made the decision to reposition itself as a major partner with Southern Africa. She expressed gratitude that Russia has launched a plan aimed at improving direct trade with the continent/region beyond the traditional sectors like mining, seeking to invest in areas like agriculture, industrial production, high technology and transport.
The Russian Federation’s priorities are also in line with SADC priorities, as evidenced by the priorities of the Foreign Economic Strategy in the region, as indicated below:
Prospecting, mining, oil, construction and mining, purchasing gas, oil, uranium, and bauxite assets (Angola, Namibia and South Africa);
Construction of power facilities—hydroelectric power plants on the River Congo (Angola, Namibia and Zambia) and nuclear power plants (South Africa);
Creating a floating nuclear power plant, and South African participation in the international project to build a nuclear enrichment centre in Russia;
Railway Construction (Angola);
Creation of Russian trade houses for the promotion and maintenance of Russian engineering products (South Africa).
Participation of Russian companies in the privatisation of industrial assets, including those created with technical assistance from the former Soviet Union (Angola).
In the Russian Federation, 10 SADC member countries have their diplomatic offices, namely: Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Final Words of Wisdom
In pursuit of following Putin’s policy to strengthen ties with the Global South, including Africa, Russia has to re-strategise and take up the existing critical challenges. Despite a noticeable increase in activity, Russia’s strategy on the continent faces several persistent structural limitations that require thoughtful responses. As geopolitical changes heat up, Russia has to understand the necessity to move ahead, back away from tectonic rhetoric and symbolism of diplomacy. By 2025–2026, the African continent had firmly established itself as a key area of global competition and, simultaneously, one of the most important reserves of economic growth. For Russia, this is important to change the very logic of its African ties. It is logical to walk the talk. In other words, Russia’s relations with African countries have to shift from historical rhetoric to a more practical architecture of interests.
On December 19–20, 2025, the second ministerial conference of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum was held in Cairo, with the Roscongress Foundation acting as the operator on the Russian side. The conference was attended by the heads of the African foreign ministries and the leaders of the continent’s integration associations. That conference has been defined as a key stage in the preparations for the third Russia-Africa summit, scheduled for October 2026. As noted by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, the meeting is intended to “give additional impetus to the development of the Russian-African partnership and the strengthening of its truly strategic nature.”
For Moscow, institutionalising the format is crucial given the overall transformation of global politics. And ultimately, Africa is becoming a space where external players’ ability to not only declare respect for sovereignty but also propose practical mechanisms for cooperation is being tested. Russia’s strategy is built on combining political rhetoric about multipolarity with concrete areas of cooperation—from trade to energy, and food security to personnel training and military-technical cooperation. Economic spheres and building infrastructures are important for Africa, which is ready for foreign investors with adequate funds and not just geopolitical rhetoric. It has to be noted that Africa is a space of competition between external players.
The continent is an arena of intense competition, with China, the European Union, the United States, Turkey, India, and the Gulf states all operating simultaneously, each offering its models of interaction: from large-scale infrastructure financing to military cooperation and religious and cultural influence. African states are becoming increasingly pragmatic and multi-vector—they are consistently expanding their foreign policy space, weighing the conditions, benefits, and political costs.
In such an environment, the sustainability of Russia’s presence is determined by its ability to offer a concrete and replicable set of advantages. Anti-colonial rhetoric and appeals to historical legacy remain important, but they no longer provide a long-term advantage on their own. Each competitive proposition must be backed by institutional support.
At the St. Petersburg forum, there was a genuine international community of like-minded partners practically united by a common goal: networking and developing business cooperation. “The continued participation confirms the demand for building relationships of business trust and confidence with foreign partners from different regions, including the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, Asia and Africa,” said Alexander Stuglev, Chairman of the Board and CEO of the Roscongress Foundation. The Roscongress Foundation held the 29th St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) from 3 to 6 June 2026.
World
CANAL+ Eyes MultiChoice Turnaround as Stocks Debut on JSE
By Adedapo Adesanya
CANAL+ has expressed confidence in its ability to turn around the fortunes of struggling broadcaster MultiChoice as it marks a milestone by becoming the first French company listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).
The secondary listing of CANAL+ signals strong international confidence in South Africa’s capital markets and reinforces the JSE’s role as a conduit between global capital and African growth opportunities, it said in a statement.
CANAL+ enhances the JSE’s sectoral diversity and provides local investors with direct, rand-denominated exposure to a globally diversified media and entertainment business with a significant African footprint. CANAL+ listed on the London Stock Exchange in December 2024.
The group’s listing on the JSE aligns with its long-term strategy to expand its presence in high-growth markets, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where rising connectivity, a young and growing population (expected to increase by 800 million by 2050), strong GDP growth (4.5 per cent growth expected between 2026 and 2030) and accelerating demand for content and connectivity continue to drive sector growth.
The JSE listing will increase CANAL+ liquidity and enable African investors to benefit from CANAL+ growth.
According to Mr Maxime Saada, CEO of CANAL+ said, “Joining the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is a statement of our ambition and illustrates our belief in Africa’s future and its creative industry.
“We are proud to become the first French company ever to list in Johannesburg and the only global media and entertainment company listed on the exchange.
“Following our listing on the London Stock Exchange 18 months ago, this dual listing reinforces our ambition to be a bridge between Europe and Africa and anchors our dual-continental approach, consolidating our unique position in the global media and entertainment industry,” he said.
He noted that CANAL+ serves more than 40 million subscribers and generates €9bn in annual revenue.
“Africa will be our growth engine for years to come, and we are dedicated to creating value on the continent and sharing it with our African partners, investors and the creative community. By welcoming African investors, we deepen our roots, diversify our investor base and lay the foundation for the next phase of our growth.”
Commenting on the listing, Ms Valdene Reddy, Group CEO of the JSE, said, “We are proud to welcome CANAL+ to the JSE and to mark the first listing of a French company on our exchange.
World
AfDB President Sees More African Nations Regaining Investment-Grade Ratings
By Adedapo Adesanya
The President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Mr Sidi Ould Tah, says more African countries are likely to regain or achieve investment-grade credit ratings by next year as reforms begin to deliver results and economic growth accelerates.
Several African sovereigns have already been upgraded in recent months, including Nigeria. However, Nigeria is not yet near investment-grade status.
In May, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit ratings to ‘B’ with a stable outlook, citing structural reforms under President Bola Tinubu and key drivers like higher oil production and improved fiscal revenue.
The country is still five notches from investment-grade. Under S&P’s rating scale, the progression follows— B → B+ → BB- → BB → BB+ → BBB- (investment grade).
S&P raised Morocco to investment grade last year and increased South Africa by one level to BB in November. Ghana, Zambia, the Ivory Coast and Kenya have also benefited from positive rating action linked to fiscal, debt and economic reforms.
“We’re quite confident that the continent will continue to grow very strongly and that African countries will be better rated in the coming years,” Mr Ould Tah said in an interview with Bloomberg.
“We’ve seen Morocco receive investment grade during the last few months, and we expect other countries by next year to get toward that,” he added.
The outlook reflects improving fiscal positions and reforms implemented across countries on the continent, even as the conflict in the Middle East threatens to slow economic growth and raise costs for energy-importing nations. Better credit ratings can help countries borrow at lower rates and fund development projects.
The AfDB projects the continent’s gross domestic product expansion will accelerate to 4.4 per cent next year, if the conflict in the Middle East does not extend for a longer period. It expects the continent to slow to 4.2 per cent this year.
The war in Iran has benefited oil producers such as Nigeria, Angola and Gabon, while exerting pressure on the fiscal positions of net energy importers such as South Africa, Kenya, Ghana and Senegal.
Mr Ould Tah said the bank is ready to support countries facing budget constraints and high debt burdens due to the impact of the Iran crisis, including increasing credit lines to them.
“The board of directors of the bank will examine in the coming days how the bank can increase the volume of resources it will provide to its member countries in this specific situation,” he said.
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