World
South African Economy in Recession as GDP Drops 1.4% in Q4
By Adedapo Adesanya
- Records Second Recession since 2018.
- Economy Grows 0.2 Percent in 2019.
- Nigeria Becomes Biggest Economy in Africa by Comparison
South Africa has entered into a technical recession as the country’s economy contracted by 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019.
In the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released by the statistical authority, Statistics SA (SSA) on Tuesday, the drop in the country’s GDP followed a 0.8 percent decline in economic output during the previous quarter (Q3 2019) and this means with the recession (fall in GDP for two consecutive quarters) marking the third recession experienced by the country since 1994. It is the second recession South Africa was experiencing in two years.
According to the SSA, for the whole of 2019, the South African economy grew by only 0.2 percent in real terms compared with 0.8 percent recorded in the previous year of 2018.
It was revealed that out of 10 major industries that moved the country’s economy, seven were hit with negative outcome in the fourth quarter of last year with agriculture recording the highest with a -7.6 percent outcome.
Others, according to the SSA, include; Transport, -7.2 percent; construction, -5.9 percent; electricity, -4 percent; retail, -3.8 percent and manufacturing, -1.8 percent.
The statistical body, however, revealed that household spending in the country increased by 1.4 percent in the Q4 of 2019.
It has been reported that this means bigger problems for the President Cyril Ramaphosa led government which has been faced with a lot of economic problems and may need to take difficult measures with civil servant wage cuts proposed which could give a boost to the country’s currency, the Rand.
The latest development means Nigeria, which recorded a 2.27 percent growth in 2019, is the biggest economy in Africa, according to a Bloomberg analysis on the basis of its flexible exchange rate ($476 billion or $402 billion), which gives it a higher GDP value than the southern Africa nation ($352 billion).
World
African Union Developing 10-Year Comprehensive Agriculture Programme
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
For three working days, 9th –11th January 2025, in the Speke Resort Conference Centre in Uganda’s capital, Kampala, the African Union Commission (AUC) will host the Extraordinary Summit on the Post-Malabo Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). This Summit is supported by the Government of Uganda.
The event is organized jointly by the African Union Commission, Department of Agriculture Rural Development Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment (DARBE) and African Union Development Agency- New Partnership African Development (AUDA-NEPAD).
Dignitaries will deliver statements on the consideration of the Kampala Declaration, the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) Ten-Year Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035); the draft Statute of Africa Food Safety Agency; and the report on selection of African Union Centres of Excellence for Research and Training in Fisheries, Aquaculture, Aquatic Biodiversity Conservation and Ecosystems Management.
The Objectives of the Summit:
The convening of the extraordinary session of the Assembly is specifically to:
Endorse the draft Kampala CAADP Declaration. The draft declaration provides a vision for transforming Africa’s Agrifood Systems for the period: 2026-2035.
Endorse Ten-Year CAADP Strategy and Action Plan: 2026-2035. This plan provides details on how to achieve the goals and targets in the draft Kampala CAADP Declaration.
Risk Management and Mitigation
The post-Malabo CAADP strategy will span ten years, from 2626 to 2035. Given the longtime horizon, many risks and uncertainties could affect the strategic positioning of the agri-food systems transformation agenda to deliver on its goals. There are external socioeconomic, environmental, and other shocks that might come up, which will demand that the strategy be agile enough to respond to such unforeseen developments. The strategy will therefore call for institutional adaptation to changes in a complex and rapidly changing context. Major risks and uncertainties will need to be identified and outlined together with their respective mitigation actions.
Key interventions to ensure better risk management include:
- Identify potential risks (e.g., political instability, climate change) and put in place mechanisms for dealing with or mitigating such risks
- Identify health crises, including pandemics or epidemics, early and develop mechanisms for minimizing negative impacts
- Identify and address gender inequalities or biases and restrictive social norms that may limit the access of women and youth to education, resources, and decision making processes thereby preventing them from fully participating in and benefiting from agricultural activities or initiatives
- Invest in durable peace because it is essential for building resilient agri-food systems (from the local to global levels) and affects agricultural production, food security, market access, investment, resilience, and social cohesion. Establishing and maintaining peace is critical for enabling long-lasting investment to unlock the full potential of Africa’s agri-food systems. The Kampala CAADP Declaration will need to emphasize establishing conflict-resolution mechanisms at the community level while strengthening local markets and value chains.
- Promote household insurance and other coping mechanisms that can help mitigate the impact of health shocks on livelihoods. These mechanisms will be key to enhancing the resilience of communities.
- Enhance public health surveillance systems to detect and respond to health threats, including of zoonotic origin. It will also be important to strengthen food safety measures to prevent health shocks related to foodborne diseases.
- Financial resources will be required to achieve the Kampala CAADP declaration’s resilience objectives. Specifically, households need access to credit, savings, and other financial instruments that help them weather economic shocks.
- Food price monitoring: It will be necessary to implement policies that stabilize food markets and prevent price volatility to ensure a steady supply of food and agricultural inputs.
- Capacities development of African governments to formulate resilience-focused policy measures is a critical step and a priority for the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan. Mainstreaming resilience-focused policies will trickle down to operational actions led by various stakeholders towards sustainable agri-food systems.
Background: The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) has been crucial in driving agricultural transformation across Africa since its inception in 2003. The program is aimed at increasing food security and nutrition, reducing rural poverty, creating employment, and contributing to economic development while safeguarding the environment. CAADP aims for a 6% annual growth rate in the agricultural sector, with African Union member states allocating at least 10% of their budgets to agriculture.
Building on the Maputo Declaration (2003-2013), the 2014 Malabo CAADP Declaration renewed commitment to CAADP and established ambitious goals for 2025, including eradicating hunger, reducing malnutrition, tripling intra-African trade, and building resilience of livelihoods and production systems. The Malabo Declaration underscored the importance of mutual accountability through agricultural biennial reviews and recognized the essential role of related sectors like infrastructure and rural development. During the Thirty-Seventh Ordinary Session of the African Union Assembly in February 2024, the Heads of State and Government expressed concern that the continent is not on track to meet the Malabo CAADP goals and targets by 2025. This has spurred a call for the development of a post-Malabo CAADP agenda to build resilient agri-food systems.
It is in this context that the An Extraordinary Summit of The African Union Assembly of Heads of States and Governments is scheduled for January 9th to 11th 2025 in Kampala, Uganda, to deliberate on the post-Malabo CAADP agenda to consider the draft Ten-Year CAADP Strategy and Action Plan with its associated draft Kampala Declaration on Advancing Africa’s Inclusive Agrifood Systems Transformation for Sustainable Economic Growth and Shared Prosperity.
Format and Structure of the Summit: The Extraordinary Summit will start with a one-day meeting of the Ministers responsible for Agriculture, Rural Development Water and Environment on the 9th of January 2025, to be followed by Joint Session of the Ministers of Agriculture, Rural Development, Water and Environment together with the Ministers of Foreign Affairs on the 10th of January 2025.
The sessions will feature two presentations the: i) draft CAADP Ten-Year Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035); ii) draft Kampala CAADP Declaration and both will be done in closed sessions. The Ministerial sessions will be structured to encourage inclusive and interactive conversations and dialogue among the Ministers, as well as between the Ministers and key strategic stakeholders. At the same time, it will enable the Ministers to review the strategic documents presented to them for their consideration and recommendations to the Assembly.
The Assembly of Heads of State and Government will convene on the 11th of January 2025 to endorse the: i) draft Ten-Year CAADP Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035); ii) draft Kampala CAADP Declaration.
Participants: The Extraordinary Summit on the CAADP Agenda will be attended by Heads of States and Government of the African Union Member State, Ministers of Foreign Affairs, PRCs, Ministers and Experts in-Charge of Agriculture (forestry, fisheries, crops and livestock), Rural Development, Water and Environment, RECs, Youth, Women, Non-State Actors, Media, Academia and Development Partners
African Union: The AU is guided by its vision of “An Integrated, Prosperous and Peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the global arena.” The African Union (AU) is a continental body consisting of the 55 member states that make up the countries of the African Continent. To ensure the realisation of its objectives and the attainment of the Pan African Vision of an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, Agenda 2063 was developed as a strategic framework for Africa’s long term socio-economic and integrative transformation. Agenda 2063 calls for greater collaboration and support for African led initiatives to ensure the achievement of the aspirations of African people.
World
Food Price Index Falls 2.1% in 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
Global food commodity prices declined by 2.1 per cent in 2024 compared to the previous year, 2023, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said on Friday.
However, it warned they remain considerably higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The UN FAO overall Food Price Index averaged 122.0 points — 2.6 points or 2.1 per cent lower than the average value in 2023Food prices increased over the course of the year, with the index climbing from 117.6 points in January to 127.0 in December.
The index rose 6.7 per cent from December 2023 to 2024, with meat, dairy and food oils accounting for the increase.
The UN’s food agency tracks monthly and global changes in the international prices of a set of globally traded commodities.
The disruption to global trade during the COVID-19 pandemic initially saw food prices dip but they later climbed higher amid the surge in inflation as the global economy rebounded.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent them spiking to records since both nations are major wheat exporters, but efforts to ensure shipments were not blocked led to prices easing lower until the beginning of 2024.
The dip in the average value for the index between 2023 and 2024 was mainly due to falls in cereals and sugar prices.
Cereals dropped 13.3 points compared to 2023 underpinned by lower wheat and coarse grain prices, marking a second annual decline from the 2022 record level.
The Sugar Price Index averaged 125.8 points, down 19.2 points (13.2 per cent) from 2023 mainly reflecting record-high exports from Brazil during the year and a positive global supply outlook for the 2024/25 season
The decreases were offset in part by a 9.4-per cent rise in the vegetable oil price index.
In 2024 as a whole, the FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 129.6 points, up 5.8 points (4.7 per cent) from 2023. This increase was mainly attributed to a sharp surge in butter prices, on the back of a high global demand and constrained exportable supplies, resulting from erratic weather patterns that negatively impacted production.
For meat prices, they averaged 117.2 points, up 3.1 points (2.7 per cent) from 2023. This was driven by robust import demand from key meat-importing countries, amid slower global production growth.
This sustained higher average prices for bovine (cattle), ovine (sheep), and poultry meats, while average pig meat prices declined, prompted by subdued import demand, particularly from China.
World
US Court Orders Release Of Seized $6m Arms Funds to Nigeria
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria has won a prolonged legal battle to recover over $6 million in arms funds that had been seized by the United States government since 2014.
The funds were seized about a decade ago from an arms broker, who was trying to supply military equipment from the US to Nigeria without having the necessary licence.
The US government said the arms broker’s active involvement in the sale, export, and supply of military products to Nigeria without authorisation was a violation of the Arms Export Control Act, leading to the seizure of the funds.
However, in a ruling on December 23, the US District Court for Eastern California ordered the release of the funds totalling about $6.02 million after confirming Nigeria’s interest in it.
Judge Jenniffer Thurston issued a permanent order of forfeiture of the money in favour of Nigeria, modifying the earlier January 2020 preliminary order forfeiting the assets to the US government.
The judge ordered the US government to release the money with the accrued interests to the Nigerian government within 60 days.
“Within sixty (60) days from entry of this Stipulation for Final Order of Forfeiture and Order Thereon, the US Customs and Border Protection shall return the above-listed assets to Petitioner, along with any interest earned by the United States while on deposit in an interest-bearing account,” a copy of the court order said.
For context, Nigeria had paid agents for the purchase of military equipment during the peak of the Boko Haram insurgency in 2014, but received neither the funds nor the equipment it intended to purchase.
The deal ran into a roadblock in August 2014 when the US government denied approval to purchase and export the arms to Nigeria because the agents were not approved to carry out the deal.
The US government seized the money, describing it as the proceeds of a violation of its Arms Export Control Act, on the grounds that the agency did not have the licence to engage in the sale, export, import and brokering of military products at the time.
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