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The Impact of COVID-19 on China’s Belt and Road Initiatives in Africa

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A new report by Economist Corporate Network, supported by Baker McKenzie and Silk Road Associates, BRI Beyond 2020 (report), shows that the ripple effects of COVID-19 are affecting the nature, pace and scope of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) activity in Africa, mostly for the short term.

The report also explains how the virus has led to an increased interest in digital programmes in BRI countries, as well as a heightened focus on sustainability, including workforce health. The BRI is China’s multi-billion dollar plan to link Asia, Europe and Africa.

“The COVID-19 epidemic definitely has a dampening effect on BRI activities as Chinese companies focus their resources and efforts on dealing with the various types of impact caused by such epidemic.

“However, this effect will likely be relatively short term and we are already seeing the resumption of BRI activities by our Chinese clients.

“It is also heartening to see foreign sellers and partners adjusting their deal timetables to make allowances for the impact caused by this epidemic,” says Bee Chun Boo M&A Partner at Baker McKenzie in Beijing.

Ben Simpfendorfer, CEO of Silk Road Associates, explains in the report that the BRI will remain a priority for China, but that it will affect the Chinese government’s short-term and long-term response to COVID-19, because shortfalls in China’s health sector, and the economic fallout for the country’s financially challenged SME sector, will divert official attention and resources away from BRI over the next 12 months and potentially longer.

“This may mean reduced investments into BRI’s smaller, less critical markets where the opportunities to connect such investments to the global supply are limited. Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Europe will accordingly see a short-term dip in BRI related activity, relative to Southeast Asia. The exception to this view is where China seeks to share its valuable experience of battling COVID-19 with other BRI countries,” he says.

Healthcare

Mike van Rensburg, Partner and Head of the Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals Sector at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg notes, “Any largescale outbreak of COVID-19 in Africa will put pressure on already strained public health systems in the continent and as such African nations are being vigilant in order to contain the spread of COVID-19. Detection of the virus in African has been challenging due to lack of laboratory capacity and medical supplies, but World Health Organisation (WHO) has said it is equipping countries with virus testing kits, and that it has helped to train and provide personal protective equipment to health workers. Further, most African countries are identifying quarantine centres and stocking up on medication.”

The outlook is far from bleak however. The report highlights that one key area of potential for the BRI is in projects focused on strengthening the health systems of low-income countries, even if focused on soft processes rather than hard infrastructure.

It points to Chinese tech companies such as Alibaba’s DingTalk, Tencent’s WeChat Work and Huawei’s WeLink potentially bidding for market share outside of China, especially in the BRI region. China’s MedTech sector may similarly find opportunities abroad. Online doctor consultation platforms have seen consultations soar in the past few months (Alibaba Health, Ping An Good Doctor) and similar technologies may work abroad if staffed by locals, given health sector shortfalls in many BRI countries.

Simpfendorfer notes that China’s success in using AI and other technologies to identify and monitor virus carriers may also have application across the BRI, including in Africa.

Infrastructure

The report further outlines how, in the years before COVID-19 struck, China had increasingly become an important stakeholder in Africa’s infrastructure development. In recent years, there has been a notable shift in the pattern of China’s overseas direct investment in the region, with a repositioning of its focus from the mining sector to Africa’s construction, manufacturing and financial services sectors. These investments have been supporting Africa’s efforts to diversify its economy and reduce its over-reliance on natural resources for growth.

Political and policy commitments between China and Africa have strengthened and expanded in their scope since the BRI was launched, the report shows. During the 2018 Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), an official forum between China and all states in Africa, Mr Xi proposed eight major areas for nations to collaborate on: industrial promotion, facility connectivity, trade facilitation, green development, capacity building, health and hygiene, humanities exchanges, and peace and security. Since then, there have been further announcements signalling continued interest to deepen this bilateral relationship, including a desire from African nations to leverage on the BRI.

In August 2019, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) affirmed its plan to link the BRI with its industrialisation strategy, especially on the construction of infrastructure. These developments build on the foundations that were established over the past decade.

Further, the report shows how Chinese companies have supported the construction of three major economic zones in sub-Saharan Africa, including Zambia-China Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone, Eastern Industrial Zone in Ethiopia and China-Nigeria free trade zone. Such investments have been helping to create jobs and develop local industry.

Trade

Trade between China and Africa has also been thriving. In 2018, China’s trade with Africa increased by 19.7%, a pace of growth that is considerably higher than China’s average trade growth with the world (12.6%), the report indicates.

The report shows how these strengthening trade links are in part a result of favourable financial incentives offered to Africa by China. Thirty-three of the poorest countries in Africa export 97% of their exports to China with no tariffs and no customs duties. Bilateral trade is still heavily centred on China’s import of Africa’s natural resources. Nevertheless, in recent years China has modestly increased its import of manufacturing products from more diversified economies such as South Africa.

Virusha Subban, Partner specialising in Customs and Trade at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg, points out, however, that “as one of Africa’s biggest trading partners, the effects of COVID-19 in China have already been felt in the continent. With China having shut down its manufacturing centre and closed its ports, there has been resultant decrease in demand for African commodities. Importers in China cancelled orders due to port closures and as a result of reduction in consumption in China. Sellers of commodities in Africa were forced to offload products elsewhere at a discounted rate.

“Over three quarters of African exports to the rest of the world are still heavily focused on natural resources and any reduction in demand impacts the economies of most of the continent. Countries such as the DRC, Zambia, Nigeria and Ghana are significantly exposed to risk in terms of industrial commodity exports, such as such as oil, iron ore and copper, to China,” she notes.

Subban explains that the impact of COVID-19 will also be felt in the manufacturing sectors. Because China is part of the global supply chain, factory closures raised the risk of supply chain disruptions for multinational companies with delays, raw material shortages, increased costs and reduced orders affecting manufacturing plants around the world, including in Africa. As production lines and factories begin to reopen in affected regions, imports and exports will be further delayed by the resultant congestion and backlog.

“External imports from outside of Africa account for more than half the total volume of imports to African countries, with the most important suppliers being Europe (35%) China (16%) and the rest of Asia including India (14%). The manufacturing and industrial sectors in Africa have been impacted by a decreased supply of key components from China (and other relevant countries affected by COVID-19).

Although Africa’s untapped manufacturing and consumer markets represent significant potential opportunity, the short term impact on China’s investments in Africa after COVID-19 will be further constrained by the challenges inherent in the region’s business environment. The report lists poor governance, currency risks, complex regulatory systems and high levels of corruption as issues that will continue to pose hurdles to investment. To navigate the market opportunities, companies—from China and elsewhere—will need to be fully prepared and equipped to deal with potential legal and regulatory disputes in Africa.

African nations are also hoping that once the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is implemented (due to take place in July this year but now postponed due to COVID-19) intraregional trade in Africa will decrease the continent’s reliance on foreign investment.

Wildu du Plessis, Partner and Head of Africa at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg, says that according to research from Baker McKenzie and Oxford Economics – AfCFTA’s US$ 3 trillion Opportunity – there is a vast infrastructure gap in Africa, including transport and utilities infrastructure, which must be urgently addressed so as not to restrict increased trade integration.

“AfCFTA is expected to act as an impetus for African governments to address their infrastructure needs as well as to overhaul regulation relating to tariffs, bilateral trade, cross-border initiatives and capital flows. Both domestic and foreign trade, including with China, will benefit from reforms to regulation, political climate and trade policies that enhance competitiveness and improve the ease of doing business, but effective solutions will take time.”

Sustainability

If the BRI is to remain a major force in global infrastructure development after COVID-19, sustainability will have at the heart of its projects. According to the report, the definition of BRI sustainability is also by necessity growing to encompass a focus on protecting the health of those involved in BRI projects, including both workers and the wider local populations where projects are underway.

And as Africa reduces its over-dependence on natural resources for boosting economic growth, it also needs to ensure it develops other industries in a sustainable way. To this end, the report outlines how China and Africa have agreed to work together on improving Africa’s capacity for green, low-carbon and sustainable development, and to roll-out more than 50 projects during 2019-2021 on clean energy, wildlife protection, environment-friendly agriculture and low-carbon development.

Du Plessis adds, “While the impact of COVID-19 on African economies will be detrimental, there is light at the end of the tunnel in that the project delays are expected to be mostly short term; and future initiatives will now have a heightened focus on sustainability – improving not only their long-term outlook, but also the sustained health of the environment and, most importantly, Africa’s people.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Abidjan-Lagos Corridor Highway Under Construction

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Abidjan-Lagos Corridor Highway

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Never underestimate the power of the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), also known as CEDEAO in French and Portuguese, created on 28th May 1975 as a regional political and economic union bringing together fifteen (15) countries of West Africa. Per the date of its establishment, this so-called regional bloc marks its 50th year in 2025, a significant historical celebration.

Considered one of the pillar regional blocs of the continent-wide African Economic Community (AEC), ECOWAS generally has its primary common goal of working consistently towards achieving, what is first referred to, as “collective self-sufficiency” for its member states by creating a single large trade bloc by building a full economic and trading union. Additionally, ECOWAS aims to raise the living standards of an estimated population of over 425 million people and to promote economic development based on the principles of interdependence, solidarity, and cooperation.

Until writing this article, ECOWAS has frequently been discussing and reviewing the Abidjan-Lagos Corridor Highway Development Project, one single regional infrastructure project these several years. It has shown its total commitment to looking for funding while billions have been siphoned by leaders into foreign banks. African leaders are quick negotiating and paying for foreign military weapons but are grossly unsuccessful in soliciting similar assistance from these external partners to invest in infrastructure development such as the Abidjan-Lagos Corridor Highway Development Project.

West African Highway Launched in 2017

The construction of this proposed grandiose West African highway has its chequered history. The proposed project was successfully launched in 2017, and since then it has had a series of high-powered meetings and conferences, technical studies have been conducted, and the construction to its feasibility and practical operationalization. The Abidjan-Lagos highway, the six-lane dual carriage highway, is estimated at $15.1 billion.

On resource mobilization, it was explicitly noted that ECOWAS had adopted a new regulatory framework on the Public Private Partnership (PPP) – an incentive for the entry of the private sector in large investments like the nature of this project. The African Development Bank (AfDB) on behalf of the development partners offered its assurance for unwavering commitment to the realization of the highway.

Akinwunmi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank (AfDB) has several times highlighted the importance of the Abidjan-Lagos highway as an infrastructure project in West Africa that would ease the free movement of people, goods and services, generate social and economic activities, and ultimately promote cross-border trade within the region, its economic viability and enormous potentials especially now that African Union looks to implement the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Noticeably, Africa has long been considered a frontier for manufacturing, technology, for food production. Africa is getting ready for business, it is busily building the world’s largest single market of 1.4 billion people.

Special Meetings and Technical Consultations

Several meetings upon meetings and meetings have been held since the project was proposed in 2017. Since 2017, paid meetings have been held, and experts have been paid. The latest of such a paid meeting was held on November 10-11, 2024. This roundtable was initiated following the instructions given to the ECOWAS Commission. Late September 2024, such a roundtable meeting was held in Abidjan, the capital city of Côte d’Ivoire, under the auspices of the Commission of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID).

The highway corridor is calculated to be approximately 1,080 km long. It will connect some of the largest and most economically dynamic cities Abidjan, Accra, Cotonou, Lomé and Lagos while covering a large proportion of West Africa’s population. It will also link very vibrant seaports in West Africa. In addition, it will serve all the landlocked ECOWAS member-states, for example, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in the region. Nearly 40 million people are estimated to be living along the Abidjan-Lagos corridor while 47 million people travel along the axis every year. These are expected to be direct beneficiaries of the development of the project touted to be a real backbone of trade in the region.

According to official documents, this highway project falls in line with the key objectives of the ECOWAS Vision 2050, including (i) facilitating the movement of people and goods, and (ii) accelerating trade and transport, regional and international, improving road infrastructure. It is eventually expected that the transport corridor will be transformed into a development corridor to stimulate investment, sustainable development and poverty reduction within the entire region.

West African Highway and AfCFTA

The focal point of controversy and debate, these several years, are centred on the mechanism of financing, and the state-of-the-art management of this new mega-highway – from planning through practical construction to its final commissioning, ready for cutting-edge usage by the transport industry. The idea of prioritizing highway innovation, signalling a bold leap in West Africa’s transportation infrastructure, is its recognizable potential transformative impact. Simply intended to improve and facilitate the movement of services, goods and people across the region. The Abidjan-Lagos Highway highlights its potential to enhance regional connectivity and drive economic growth, especially with the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade (AfCFTA), the ambitious flagship of the African Union (AU).

According to ECOWAS’ latest document issued after their two-day special meeting held on November 11 in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, “experts have lauded findings of the study which has among others, unveiled a potential $6.8 billion investment prepared and ready to be implemented to unlock economic growth and enhance the viability of the proposed highway.” The overall objective is to identify and unlock the inherent and latent economic potential (short, medium and long-term) and commercial viability of economic and industrial value chain projects. These economic projects, once implemented, will also generate trade volumes and traffic to augment the viability of the highway.

The final draft reports were issued after groups revisited (that was not the first time) several tolled bridges and roads in Abidjan for knowledge and experience sharing strategy envisaged for the Abidjan-Lagos Highway. At the end of the exercise, the study report (re)validated commitment to unlock the inherent and latent economic potential of the highway construction and estimated $6.8 billion in potential investment in the region.

Final Construction Still Out of Sight

For the past few years, significant attention has been drawn by the widely publicized announcement of securing enough funds from African banks and external sources for the construction of this regional highway which could become a cornerstone, and the public narrative of achievement by ECOWAS, which marks its 50th year in 2025. However, transport industry analysts, researchers and experts have already cast serious doubts and skyline scepticism if ECOWAS could live up to this onerous task. Grandiose ceremony-infested ECOWAS future task of achieving its primary target of constructing a ‘speed-highway’ remains an eternal dream. Noticeably, ECOWAS has little to celebrate, except its existence by name, (the golden jubilee) at its 50th year in May 2025. At least, Africans will rather jubilate over the authenticity of reforming and transforming the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

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Criticisms Trail $300bn Climate Finance Deal

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Climate Disclosure Guidelines

By Adedapo Adesanya

After many delays and negotiations, richer countries agreed to take the lead on raising at least $300 billion per year by 2035 to support climate adaptation and emissions reduction projects in developing nations.

This came after two exhausting weeks of chaotic bargaining and sleepless nights at the Conference of Parties (COP29) held in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Other donors — including less wealthy countries, development banks, and private investors — were also invited to chip in. The agreement also called on all these parties to work, on a voluntary basis, toward the goal of $1.3 trillion.

The figures are far lower than what many in Baku had hoped for with delegates from countries like India, Kenya, and Vanuatu among others lamenting the agreed amount. Expectations were around $2.3 trillion.

“The amount that is proposed to be mobilised is abysmally poor. It’s a paltry sum,” said Indian delegate Chandni Raina.

“This document is little more than an optical illusion. This, in our opinion, will not address the enormity of the challenge we all face.”

“The commitments made in Baku — the Dollar amounts pledged and the emissions reductions promised — are not enough. They were never going to be enough,” said Ralph Regenvanu, climate envoy from the island nation Vanuatu. “And even then, based on our experience with such pledges in the past, we know they will not be fulfilled.”

“This COP has been a disaster for the developing world,” said Mohamed Adow, the Kenyan director of Power Shift Africa, a think tank.

“It’s a betrayal of both people and planet, by wealthy countries who claim to take climate change seriously.”

Nations struggled to reconcile long-standing divisions over how much rich nations most accountable for historic climate change should provide to poorer countries least responsible but most impacted by Earth’s rapid warming.

The climate envoy of the European Union, Wopke Hoekstra said COP29 would be remembered as “the start of a new era for climate finance”.

Despite repeating that no deal is better than a bad deal, this did not stand in the way of an agreement, despite it falling well short of what most of these delegates wanted.

The final deal commits developed nations to pay at least $300 billion a year by 2035 to help developed countries green their economies and prepare for worse disasters.

A group of 134 developing countries had pushed for at least $500 billion from rich governments to build resilience against climate change and cut emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases.

UN climate chief, Mr Simon Stiell acknowledged the deal was imperfect.

“No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do. So this is no time for victory laps,” he said in a statement.

The United States and EU have wanted newly wealthy emerging economies like China — the world’s largest emitter — to chip in.

The final deal encourages developing countries to make contributions on a voluntary basis, reflecting no change for China which already provides climate finance on its own terms.

The deal posits a larger overall target of $1.3 trillion per year to cope with rising temperatures and disasters, but most would come from private sources.

Wealthy countries and small island nations were also concerned by efforts led by Saudi Arabia to water down calls from last year’s summit in Dubai to phase out fossil fuels.

A number of countries also accused Azerbaijan, an authoritarian oil and gas exporter, of lacking the experience and will to meet the moment, as the planet again sets temperature records and faces rising deadly disasters.

The next COP will hold in Brazil in 2025.

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Yellow Card Gets Crypto Asset Service Provider Licence in South Africa

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Crypto Asset Service Provider

By Adedapo Adesanya

Stablecoin-based infrastructure provider, Yellow Card, has been issued a Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) licence by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) in South Africa.

This is coming after the company announced the closing of its Series C financing valued at $33 million led by Blockchain Capital, with participation from Polychain Capital, Third Prime Ventures, Castle Island Ventures, Block, Inc., Galaxy Ventures, Blockchain Coinvestors, Hutt Capital, and Winklevoss Capital in October.

Yellow Card, which launched in South Africa in 2020, has facilitated over $3 billion in transactions in the last several years and now operates in 20 countries across the continent.

Commenting on the FSCA’s decision to issue the licence to Yellow Card Financial South Africa, Mr Chris Maurice, Yellow Card’s co-founder and CEO, said, “The CASP licence underscores Yellow Card’s commitment to its customers in South Africa and regulatory compliance across the continent. This achievement reflects our dedication to providing secure, compliant and transformative solutions for our customers both in South Africa and across Africa.”

With the licensing and funding, the company plans to expand its B2B offerings by enhancing its stablecoin rails, upgrading infrastructure, and advancing its B2B API and Widget.

This will further help to drive stablecoin adoption, which is surging throughout Africa, with sub-Saharan Africa having the highest adoption rate in the world at 9.2 per cent.

In South Africa alone, where the number of total users of crypto assets is estimated to amount to 5.8 million people, stablecoins have experienced growth of 50 per cent month over month since October 2023, displacing bitcoin as the country’s most popular cryptocurrency. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged against the Dollar.

“As the stablecoin landscape continues to evolve, Yellow Card is committed to leading the charge in making digital assets accessible and secure for businesses across Africa,” Yellow Card said in a statement.

“These efforts will empower businesses with seamless solutions for liquidity management and their general operations,” the firm added.

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