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Easing of Oil Output Cuts to Sway Market This Week

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opec oil output

By Adedapo Adesanya

Last week, prices of both the Brent crude and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude initially dropped on oil demand recovery worries but eventually turned around to show signs of resilience yet again.

Following this positive outcome at the oil market, things could be very difficult for the market this week as one of the major factors that have lifted prices may be eased.

The production cuts from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), which just did not only remove crude oil from an oversaturated market but eventually helped to boost prices, may start tapering to allow for an increase in production to allow countries fight for market share.

When the cabal started cutting outputs in May, the agreement was to reduce almost 10 per cent or 9.7 million barrels daily for two months including June. However, there was an extension to this to July.

However, analysts note that this may not extend into August with cuts expected to taper to 7.7 million barrels per day through December. According to Wall Street Journal sources, the countries are planning to relax the curbs by 2 million barrels a day to 7.7 million.

The report said that Saudi Arabia was worried as continued support will be dangerous, especially as non-OPEC members attempt to gain market share.

The report came two days after the Energy Information Administration (IEA) said that the worst effects of coronavirus on oil demand had passed but will continue to echo as the market recovers.

The group will hold a virtual meeting on Wednesday to discuss and recommend the next line of action.

In its monthly global energy report, the IEA predicted a slight improvement in global demand for crude oil this year.

However, it also cautioned that much still depends on how the pandemic develops.

The IEA report also noted that the resurgence of cases in some parts of the world, including the US and Latin America, was casting a shadow over the outlook and threatened to derail a recovery in demand.

“The recent increase in COVID-19 cases and the introduction of partial lockdowns introduces more uncertainty to the forecast,” it said.

The number of new COVID-19 cases continue to rise in the major producing country, the US, as the state of Florida soared by 15,299 cases on Saturday. This set the record for the highest COVID-19 cases in the country in a single day for any US state.

The rising number of cases impairs economic recovery and oil demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation and curtails crude prices.

On the supply side, more risks of additions to the supply glut have arisen with Libya’s preparations to restart oil production and exports, which also poses a threat to the oil price recovery.

The number of oil rigs in the US, an indicator of short-term production in the country, fell by 4 to 181 for the week ending July 10, from 185 the previous week, according to the latest data. Over the past 17 weeks, the decline in the oil rig count totalled 502, the data showed.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Russia’s Lukoil Agrees to Sell International Assets in Nigeria, Others to Carlyle

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By Adedapo Adesanya

US sanctioned Russian oil giant Lukoil, will sell its foreign assets, including those in Nigeria and five other countries, to the US investment firm, The Carlyle Group.

According to an announcement on Thursday, Lukoil reached an agreement with the US investment firm on the sale of Lukoil International GmbH, the holding company that owns the group’s non-Russian international assets.

These foreign assets include shares in oil fields and refineries across the globe, including in Iraq, Azerbaijan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Nigeria, and Mexico.

The sale follows the US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, “as a result of Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.”

The Donald Trump administration in October 2025 had carried out the decision to put pressure on Russia’s state finances, adding the country’s two largest oil producers, Lukoil and Rosneft, to its blacklist of sanctioned entities. The US had initially given the oil firm one month to sell the holdings before gradually extending it as negotiations dragged on.

Lukoil had announced that same month that it would sell all of its international assets, initiating a formal process to receive bids from potential buyers.

After months of negotiations with potential buyers and one preliminary agreement with Gunvor blocked by the US Treasury, which described the trading group as “the Kremlin’s puppet”, it has now signed an agreement to sell Lukoil International GmbH to Carlyle.

Companies working with the sanctioned firms risk secondary sanctions that would deny them access to US banks, traders, transporters, and insurers.

The agreement is not exclusive and is subject to conditions such as the procurement of necessary regulatory approvals, including permission from the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) for the transaction with Carlyle.

Carlyle said that the agreement “has been structured to be fully compliant” with US Treasury policies and that it was “conditional upon Carlyle’s due diligence and regulatory approvals”.

Prior to the Carlyle news, other US oil and gas supermajors Chevron and ExxonMobil, and International Holding Company (IHC) of Abu Dhabi  expressed interest to the US Treasury to potentially acquire Lukoil’s international assets.

The sale would further dent Russian economy which has been struggling because of its war in Ukraine and Western sanctions have increased inflation and slowed economic growth. In 2025, the country’s oil and gas revenues, which make up about a quarter of government income and help fund the war, fell to their lowest level in five years.

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Eyesan Assures Investors of Transparency, Merit in Oil Licensing Bid

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Oil Licensing Bid

By Adedapo Adesanya

The chief executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has assured investors of a transparent, merit-based and competitive process for Nigeria’s 2025 oil and gas licensing round.

Mrs Eyesan, gave the assurance on Wednesday while speaking at a Pre-Bid Webinar organised by the commission, noting that only applicants with strong technical, financial credentials, professionalism and credible plans would proceed to the critical stage of the bidding process.

The NUPRC in December 1, 2025 inaugurated Nigeria’s 2025 Licensing Bid Round, offering 50 oil and gas blocks across frontier, onshore, shallow water, and deepwater terrains for potential investors.

The basins included Niger Delta basin, with 35 blocks, Benin (Frontier) with three blocks, Anambra (Frontier), with four blocks, Benue (Frontier), with four blocks and Chad (Frontier) with four blocks on offer.

Mrs Eyesan explained that the licensing process would follow five stages: Registration and pre-qualification, data acquisition, technical bid submission, evaluation, and a commercial bid conference, with only bidders that meet strong technical and financial criteria progressing.

The NUPRC executive said the 2025 Licensing Round represented a deliberate effort by Nigeria to reposition its upstream petroleum sector for long-term investment, transparency, and value creation, amid increasing global competition for capital.

She said that energy security and supply resilience had become key global economic and geopolitical priorities, while investment capital was increasingly selective and disciplined.

“Our national priority is clear: to attract capital, grow reserves, and improve production in a responsible and sustainable manner.

“A structured and transparent licensing round is essential to achieving these objectives.

“The NUPRC is legally mandated to conduct licensing rounds in a periodic, open, transparent, and fully competitive manner and the entire 2025 process will be governed strictly by published rules,” she said.

The official further revealed that, with the approval of President Bola Tinubu, signature bonuses for the 2025 round have been set within a range designed to lower entry barriers and prioritise technical capability, credible work programmes, financial strength, and speed to production.

She emphasised that the bid process will fully comply with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and remain open to public and institutional scrutiny through the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) and other oversight agencies.

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Economy

Afriland Properties, Three Others Weaken NASD Exchange by 0.06%

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Afriland Properties

By Adedapo Adesanya

Four price losers weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.06 per cent on Wednesday, January 28.

The decliners were led by Afriland Properties Plc, which lost N1.53 to close at N14.50 per share compared with the previous day’s N16.03 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc dropped 50 Kobo to end at N6.35 per unit versus Tuesday’s price of N6.85 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc declined by 35 Kobo to N40.15 per share from N40.50 per share, and Food Concepts Plc decreased by 28 Kobo to sell at N2.72 per unit versus N3.00 per unit.

As a result, the market capitalisation of the bourse went down by N1.3 billion to N2.173 trillion from the N2.174 trillion it ended a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) fell by 2.17 points to 3,632.56 points from Tuesday’s 3,634.73 points.

In the midst of the profit-taking, some securities witnessed bargain-hunting, with Nipco Plc gaining N22.00 to close at N242.00 per share versus N220.00 per share of the previous session, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc improved by N4.00 to N68.00 per unit from N64.00 per unit, and Acorn Petroleum Plc added 8 Kobo to finish at N1.38 per share versus N1.30 per share.

At midweek, the volume of securities transacted by the market participants surged by 259.9 per cent to 4.7 million units from 1.3 million units, but the value of securities went down by 8.6 per cent to N52.4 million from N57.3 million and the number of deals shrank by 15.8 per cent to 32 deals from 38 deals.

CSCS Plc remained the most traded stock by value (year-to-date) with 15.3 million units exchanged for N622.4 million, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.6 million units valued at N108.4 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units worth N60.3 million.

CSCS Plc was also the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 15.3 million units sold for N622.4 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units exchanged for N60.3 million, and Mass Telecom Innovation Plc with 8.4 million units traded for N3.4 million.

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