Economy
Easing of Oil Output Cuts to Sway Market This Week
By Adedapo Adesanya
Last week, prices of both the Brent crude and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude initially dropped on oil demand recovery worries but eventually turned around to show signs of resilience yet again.
Following this positive outcome at the oil market, things could be very difficult for the market this week as one of the major factors that have lifted prices may be eased.
The production cuts from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), which just did not only remove crude oil from an oversaturated market but eventually helped to boost prices, may start tapering to allow for an increase in production to allow countries fight for market share.
When the cabal started cutting outputs in May, the agreement was to reduce almost 10 per cent or 9.7 million barrels daily for two months including June. However, there was an extension to this to July.
However, analysts note that this may not extend into August with cuts expected to taper to 7.7 million barrels per day through December. According to Wall Street Journal sources, the countries are planning to relax the curbs by 2 million barrels a day to 7.7 million.
The report said that Saudi Arabia was worried as continued support will be dangerous, especially as non-OPEC members attempt to gain market share.
The report came two days after the Energy Information Administration (IEA) said that the worst effects of coronavirus on oil demand had passed but will continue to echo as the market recovers.
The group will hold a virtual meeting on Wednesday to discuss and recommend the next line of action.
In its monthly global energy report, the IEA predicted a slight improvement in global demand for crude oil this year.
However, it also cautioned that much still depends on how the pandemic develops.
The IEA report also noted that the resurgence of cases in some parts of the world, including the US and Latin America, was casting a shadow over the outlook and threatened to derail a recovery in demand.
“The recent increase in COVID-19 cases and the introduction of partial lockdowns introduces more uncertainty to the forecast,” it said.
The number of new COVID-19 cases continue to rise in the major producing country, the US, as the state of Florida soared by 15,299 cases on Saturday. This set the record for the highest COVID-19 cases in the country in a single day for any US state.
The rising number of cases impairs economic recovery and oil demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation and curtails crude prices.
On the supply side, more risks of additions to the supply glut have arisen with Libya’s preparations to restart oil production and exports, which also poses a threat to the oil price recovery.
The number of oil rigs in the US, an indicator of short-term production in the country, fell by 4 to 181 for the week ending July 10, from 185 the previous week, according to the latest data. Over the past 17 weeks, the decline in the oil rig count totalled 502, the data showed.
Economy
APM Terminals to Invest $600m in Nigeria’s Maritime Sector
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigerian maritime sector may soon witness the inflow of $600 million in investment from APM Terminals.
On the sidelines of the ongoing Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Rwanda, the Regional President of APM Terminals for Africa-Europe, Mr Igor van den Essen, informed President Bola Tinubu that his company was interested in deepening its investment in Nigeria.
According to a statement issued by the Special Adviser to the President of Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the investment would be deployed in Apapa port modernisation, logistics infrastructure, and long-term private-sector investment in Nigeria’s maritime sector.
President Tinubu welcomed the investments, emphasising that Nigeria is repositioning itself for greater competitiveness through ongoing economic reforms and infrastructure modernisation.
He said the country is determined to move beyond structural bottlenecks and outdated systems, stressing the need for advanced technology, faster cargo processing, and improved operational efficiency across the nation’s ports.
He emphasised that Nigeria possesses the market scale, talent base, and economic potential to support globally competitive maritime and logistics infrastructure investments and called on other investors to take advantage of Nigeria’s reform outcomes.
Earlier, Mr Igor van den Essen lauded President Tinubu’s reform agenda and policy direction, which had strengthened investor confidence and created renewed momentum for long-term infrastructure investments.
He described Nigeria as a strategic stronghold within its African operations, referencing over 20 years of collaboration and substantial existing investments in the country’s port ecosystem.
He reaffirmed his company’s commitment to expanding investments in Nigeria and disclosed plans to support the development of world-class terminal infrastructure and technology-driven port operations.
He also commended Mr Tinubu for establishing the National Single Window (NSW), which has streamlined trade procedures, improved Customs coordination, and reduced delays in cargo clearance.
Economy
Dangote Sues FG Over Fuel Import Licences
By Adedapo Adesanya
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a new lawsuit against the federal government over the fuel import licences issued to marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Last week, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) issued licences to six marketers for the importation of 720,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol.
The marketers are NIPCO, AA Rano, Matrix, Shafa, Pinnacle, and Bono. The development comes amid claims by the NMDPRA that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery now supplies over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption.
Dangote said in the filing that the licences issued undermine its operations and contravene the law, which it argues allows imports only when domestic supply falls short.
Named in the suit against the country is the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi. The federal government can only be sued via his office.
The case signals renewed tensions almost a year after Dangote withdrew an earlier lawsuit challenging similar licences. That case sought to nullify import permits issued to the NNPC and several traders.
The new filing asks the Federal High Court in Lagos to set aside import permits issued or renewed by the NMDPRA, arguing they breach an earlier order to maintain the status quo.
Dangote ended the earlier lawsuit in July 2025 without explanation, leaving unresolved questions over competition and supply in one of Africa’s largest fuel markets.
Nigeria has long relied on petrol imports due to underperforming state refineries. However, Dangote’s 650,000 barrels per day capacity refinery was touted to end that dependence.
Despite the presence of the facility, imports have continued to cover supply gaps as the refinery ramps up output.
The NMDPRA did not issue a single import licence in the first quarter of 2026 because the Dangote refinery had the capacity to meet Nigeria’s petrol demand.
Business Post gathered that only upon intervention by President Bola Tinubu were the licenses granted for the second quarter by the NMDPRA.
Economy
Nigeria’s Inflation Rises to 15.69% in April as Middle East Crisis Persists
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in April 2026 rose to 15.69 per cent, beating analysts’ expectations of 15.95 per cent, as the fallout from the Iran war continued to affect the global economy.
The statistical office on Friday showed the headline inflation rate for April on a month-on-month basis was 2.13 per cent, while the food inflation rate in the review month was 16.06 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
The rise in prices comes as an energy price shock stemming from the continued conflict in the Middle East, which stoked food prices and affected relative exchange rate stability.
According to the NBS, “this can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: Millet whole grain, yam flour, ginger (Fresh), beef, garri, tam tuber, pepper (Fresh), cray fish, cassava tuber, Beans, Irish Potatoes, tomatoes (fresh), wheat grain (Sold loose), soya beans, guinea corn, plantain, carrots (Fresh) etc.”
“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending April 2026, relative to the previous twelve-month average, was 17.55%, which was 17.05% points lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in April 2025 (34.60%),” the NBS said.
Analysts at Coronation Research had earlier projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria would be at 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis in April 2026. It added that the expected inflation rate signals a return toward the underlying disinflation trajectory and could be a pivotal data point in shaping Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberations at the next policy meeting.
It also expects food inflation to further ease, as food and non-alcoholic beverages remain the dominant contributor to headline CPI, accounting for about 40 per cent of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.
The MPC of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will meet this month, the first since the Iran War started in late February, to review core monetary policies and possibly make adjustments.
The committee reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in February.
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