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Economy

Brent Trades Closer to $44 on Possible Tighter Supply

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brent crude oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

Prices of crude oil further increased at the market on Tuesday as a result of the renewed confidence investors have that the deadly COVID-19 could soon be defeated due to the outcome of the vaccine trials.

This boosted the market coupled with the possibility of tighter supply policies from oil producers aimed to suppress the threats posed by the rising coronavirus cases in Europe and America.

During trading yesterday, the Brent crude moved up by 0.07 per cent or 3 cents to sell at $43.85 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 0.22 per cent or 10 cents to trade $41.43 per barrel.

On Monday, the oil space got a boost when Moderna Inc’s announced that its coronavirus vaccine was 94.5 per cent effective. The information came some days after Pfizer Inc also said its vaccine was over 90 per cent effective.

However, developments from the United States over the average number of people dying of COVID-19 daily threatened the market just like the fresh movement restrictions in Europe.

But the market remains hopeful as Saudi Arabia called on fellow members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to be flexible in responding to oil market needs as it builds the case for a tighter production policy in 2021.

It was reported that the oil cartel is considering four possible scenarios for 2021. Two of these are based on following the initial arrangements, including a further relaxation of cuts from 7.7 million barrels per day to 5.8 million barrels per day from January.

Under these two scenarios, the drawdown in global oil stockpiles will continue, but the total will remain well above the five-year average.

In the milder pandemic effect scenario, oil inventories will be 125 million barrels higher in 2021 than the five-year average, and in the more severe pandemic effect scenario, these will be 470 million higher than the five-year average. This will translate into an excess supply of 1.9 million barrels per day.

An option gaining support among OPEC+ nations is to keep the existing cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for a further three to six months rather than tapering in January.

But looking at tougher production restrictions scenarios, the drawdown will be more significant: if the deal is extended by three months, until the end of March, global inventories will only end up being 73 million barrels higher than the five-year average by the end of 2021.

However, if the cuts are extended until the end of June, the total supply will be just 21 million barrels, higher than the five-year average. These figures translate into a daily supply deficit of between 900,000 barrels per day and 1.4 million barrels per day, according to analysts.

OPEC+ held a ministerial committee meeting on Tuesday that made no formal recommendation. The group will hold a full meeting on November 30 – December 1.

The market will await official figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the United States on Wednesday as analysts said crude inventories likely rose 1.7 million barrels last week after gaining 4.3 million barrels in the prior week.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Market Participants Trade 3.821 billion Stocks Worth N154.393bn in One Week

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global stocks

By Dipo Olowookere

The activity level on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited improved last week after market participants traded 3.821 billion stocks worth N154.393 billion in 258,567 deals compared with the 2.324 billion stocks valued at N134.486 billion transacted in 249,328 deals in the preceding week.

Analysis showed that financial equities dominated with 2.330 billion units sold for N54.606 billion in 108,978 deals, accounting for 60.99 per cent and 35.37 per cent of the total trading volume and value, respectively.

Services stocks recorded a turnover of 509.473 million units worth N16.353 billion in 16,527 deals, and consumer goods shares recorded 216.344 million units valued at N8.057 billion in 25,963 deals.

Sterling Holdings, Access Holdings, and Ikeja Hotel were the busiest stocks, accounting for 1.405 billion units worth N28.370 billion in 12,898 deals, contributing 36.78 per cent and 18.37 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The best-performing equity for the week was Airtel Africa, which gained 21.00 per cent to sell for N5,274.00. Regency Assurance grew by 20.25 per cent to 95 Kobo, UPDC expanded by 12.31 per cent to N3.65, DAAR Communications rose by 7.84 per cent to N1.65, and SUNU Assurances increased by 7.50 per cent to N3.87.

The worst-performing equity was International Energy Insurance, which fell by 18.83 per cent to N4.70, McNichols slumped by 18.60 per cent to N7.00, University Press crashed by 17.54 per cent to N4.70, RT Briscoe dipped by 13.98 per cent to N10.15, and UPDC REIT moderated by 13.00 per cent to N8.70.

Business Post reports that 22 shares appreciated during the week, the same as the previous week, and 57 equities depreciated, the same as a week earlier, while 67 stocks remained unchanged, the same as the preceding week.

The All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation closed lower by 1.21 per cent in the five-day trading week to 229,240.34 points and N147.103 trillion, respectively.

Similarly, all other indices finished lower apart from the main board, which chalked up 2.27 per cent.

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Economy

SEC Advances Fintech Innovation With Seven New ARIP Approvals

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SEC Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has cleared seven new fintech and digital asset firms for admission into its Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Programme (ARIP), granting them Approval-in-Principle (AIP) to operate within the programme’s regulatory sandbox as part of efforts to promote innovation while protecting investors.

The commission said the move reinforces its commitment to fostering responsible innovation that deepens Nigeria’s capital market without compromising market integrity.

The seven firms set for admission into the programme are Bitbarter Technologies Limited, Luno Fintech Nigeria Limited, GetEquity Limited, Koinkoin Global Network Limited, Wrapped CBDC Ltd, Trovotech Ltd and Blockvault Custodian Ltd.

According to the SEC, the Approval-in-Principle permits the firms to operate within the defined scope of the programme, subject to conditions stipulated by the Commission.

It clarified that the approval is not a final operating licence but confirms that each entity has satisfied the admission requirements for ARIP.

“An Approval-in-Principle confirms that an entity has satisfied the Commission’s admission requirements for the Programme. It is not a final licence and remains conditional on the entity’s continued compliance with all applicable regulatory, operational, and supervisory obligations,” the Commission stated.

The ARIP is a controlled regulatory environment established by the SEC to accelerate the onboarding of digital asset and other investment service providers, including Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) and tokenised product platforms.

The programme enables the Commission to evaluate emerging business models and financial technologies under regulatory supervision before they are offered to the investing public.

According to the commission, the initiative is designed to ensure that adequate safeguards are in place to protect investors while preserving the integrity of Nigeria’s capital market.

The SEC reiterated its commitment to supporting innovation that enhances efficiency, transparency, financial inclusion and sustainable growth in the capital market through initiatives such as ARIP.

It also urged members of the public to verify the regulatory status of individuals or organisations promoting investment products or services through its official channels before committing funds.

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Economy

FG Denies IMF Allegation of 2% GDP Off-Budget Expenditure

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2026 budget tinubu

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian government has dismissed claims by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it spent about two per cent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outside the approved budget.

The widely reported claim was made by the IMF’s Resident Representative in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke, last week. He alleged that the country failed to record public spending equivalent to about two per cent of its GDP in recent official budgets, amounting to about N8 trillion.

But in a statement issued on Sunday, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, said the federal government does not operate a “shadow budget” or spend public funds outside the constitutional and statutory framework governing public finance, and described the reports as a misrepresentation of Mr Ebeke’s comments.

He explained that sections 80–83 and 162 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) provide that public funds can only be withdrawn and spent in accordance with the Constitution and laws enacted by the National Assembly.

According to him, all FG spending is backed by duly enacted Appropriation Acts, Supplementary Appropriation Acts or other statutory authorisations approved by the National Assembly.

Mr Oyedele added that multi-year capital projects, which span several budget cycles, are implemented in line with existing laws and approved capital rollover provisions where applicable.

“These are recognised features of public financial management and should not be misconstrued as expenditures outside the budget,” he said.

He described as inaccurate suggestions that trillions of naira were secretly spent without legislative approval, arguing that such allegations should identify the specific projects allegedly executed without appropriation or legal authority and provide credible evidence to support the claims.

“To be meaningful, assertions of this magnitude must be supported by verifiable facts rather than conjecture.

“For the purpose of public education, it is important to distinguish between appropriation, expenditure authorisation, financing and fiscal reporting,” he added.

Mr Oyedele said Nigeria’s public finance framework includes several statutory transfers, first-line charges and intervention mechanisms established by Acts of the National Assembly.

These, he said, include statutory allocations to development commissions and other agencies created by law, cost of collection and administration retained by designated revenue-collecting agencies, capital expenditure approved under separate budgets for some agencies and the Federal Capital Territory, special interventions for national priorities such as security, infrastructure and disaster response, as well as debt service obligations and other statutory transfers.

The minister maintained that the expenditures are neither secret nor illegal, stressing that they are established by law, disclosed in official fiscal reports and subject to oversight, audit and accountability mechanisms.

“Their treatment for reporting purposes may differ from their presentation in the annual Appropriation Act, particularly under international statistical and reporting standards adopted by the Federal Government. Such classification differences should not be misrepresented as evidence of unlawful expenditure,” he said.

Mr Oyedele also rejected claims that the reported amount represented an increase in Nigeria’s budget deficit.

“A fiscal deficit is determined by the relationship between total government revenues and total government expenditures. Whether a capital project is financed through annual appropriations, supplementary appropriations, statutory transfers, approved intervention mechanisms, or other lawful financing arrangements does not, by itself, increase the fiscal deficit,” he said.

He further explained that the IMF’s observation related primarily to the comprehensiveness, timing and presentation of Nigeria’s fiscal reporting rather than the legality of government expenditure.

According to him, Nigeria, like many other countries, is working to improve the alignment between its budget presentation and international fiscal reporting standards as part of ongoing public financial management reforms.

Mr Oyedele recalled that President Bola Tinubu had, during the presentation of the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly on December 19, 2025, urged lawmakers to end the practice of operating multiple and overlapping budgets and instead adopt a single, harmonised budget framework.

He said the federal government remains committed to prudent fiscal management, transparency and accountability, adding that recent reforms have strengthened budget credibility, revenue administration, treasury management and the digitalisation of government financial processes.

According to him, these reforms have been acknowledged by the IMF, other multilateral institutions, international credit rating agencies, investors and major global media organisations.

While describing public debate as essential in a democracy, Mr Oyedele urged commentators to base their arguments on facts and a proper understanding of Nigeria’s constitutional and fiscal framework.

“Mischaracterising technical observations as evidence of unlawful expenditure neither advances informed public discourse nor strengthens democratic accountability,” he said.

He added that the federal government would continue to uphold the rule of law, ensure transparency in the management of public resources and work with the National Assembly, oversight institutions, development partners and Nigerians to further strengthen fiscal governance in line with international best practices

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