Economy
Nigerian Pension Assets to Hit N20trn by 2023—Agusto & Co
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A notable rating organisation in Nigeria, Agusto & Co, has projected that by 2023, the Nigerian pension assets should hit N20 trillion.
As of December 31, 2020, the pension industry’s assets under management (AuM) stood at N12.3 trillion (or $32.3 billion, 20.6 per cent higher than the N10.2 trillion reported in 2019, representing an 18.3 per cent compound annual growth rate over the last five years.
In its 2021 Pension Industry report, the agency said the growth in the industry’s managed assets has been largely driven by investment returns and additional contributions, to a lesser extent.
In particular, over the last five years, the sector’s annual contributions have averaged N699 billion while withdrawals have averaged about N341 billion, translating to a net annual contribution of N347 billion and accounting for 26.6 per cent of the industry’s AuM growth over the period. The remaining 73.4 per cent of average growth was attributable to investment returns earned on the portfolios, Agusto said.
Also in the report, it was stated that the pension transfer window opened on November 16, 2020, to allow pension retirement saving account (RSA) holders to switch Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) once a year at most and at no cost.
As of the end of the second quarter of 2021 (less than nine months after the transfer window was opened), over 25,600 RSA holders with pension assets over N102.5 billion were reported to have changed PFAs.
Agusto & Co expects that in the subsequent quarters of 2021, the number of transfers will rise further as more enrolees become aware of the transfer process.
“In addition, we expect competition to intensify in the pension Industry as PFAs seek to attract new enrollees while retaining existing ones.
“Nonetheless, Agusto & Co expects the industry’s structure to remain relatively unchanged in the short-to-medium term with the top five players leading on the back of good market presence and strong brand recognition,” it added.
Going forward, Agusto & Co said it envisages continuous growth in pension assets supported by increased participation on the back of the country’s favourable demography of young adults and rising yields in money market instruments.
“In addition, we expect an improvement in the performance of the industry as operators compete for a higher return on investments, improved customer service and use of technology for operational efficiency.
“Therefore, Agusto & Co. projects that the industry’s net assets will hit the N20 trillion mark by 2023, recording an average growth rate of 18 per cent (in line with the five-year average growth rate of 18 per cent) in the next three years leading to 2023,” the report stated.
Over the year, the sector has evolved from one with predominantly public sector participants running a defined benefit scheme to a mandatory defined contribution system for all government and private sector employees.
The 2004 pension reform redefined retirement planning in Nigeria and drove significant growth in the number of enrolees and the size of managed assets in the industry.
By Adedapo Adesanya
African business mogul, Mr Aliko Dangote, has offered some East African countries a combined 30 per cent equity stake in his proposed oil refinery in Kenya, potentially giving regional investors access to about $1.5 billion worth of the project.
Mr David Ndii, economic adviser to Kenyan President William Ruto, disclosed this on Thursday at a capital markets forum in Nairobi.
Mr Ndii said Kenya would take a 10 per cent stake in the proposed refinery, valued at about $500 million, while Ethiopia and Rwanda had also expressed interest in participating in the project.
“The total for the region is about $1.5 billion,” Mr Ndii said, adding that Mr Dangote was prepared to support the project if some participating countries were unable to commit as crude off-takers.
The proposed refinery is expected to be developed in Lamu, a coastal town in southeastern Kenya, after Dangote initially proposed building the facility in Tanga, Tanzania.
Business Post had reported that the decision to relocate the project to Kenya was based on commercial and technical considerations.
The planned refinery would mark an expansion of Dangote’s refining operations beyond Nigeria and provide East African countries with direct equity participation in a major energy infrastructure project, alongside potential access to refined petroleum products.
The project was initially announced for Tanzania, where Dangote had proposed building a refinery in Tanga similar to his 700,000-barrel-per-day facility in Lagos.
Mr Dangote announced the Tanzania plan during a panel session at the Africa Finance Corporation summit in Nairobi, where he appeared alongside President Ruto and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni.
The project was subsequently shifted from Tanga to Lamu, with Dangote citing commercial and technical considerations for the change. Also, the Tanzanian government said it wasn’t consulted before the decision was announced.
The anticipated refinery and associated infrastructure on Kenya’s coast could cost about $17 billion and take approximately five years to complete.
The proposed 30 per cent regional stake is expected to provide East African investors with significant participation in the development of the refinery while broadening Dangote’s refining footprint across the continent. It will also help shield against shocks like the disruptions in the Middle East.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Civic-tech organisation, BudgIT, has called on the federal government to urgently address persistent weaknesses in budget execution, public auditing and procurement disclosure ahead of the 2027 budget cycle.
BudgIT, in a reaction to the United States Department of State’s 2026 Fiscal Transparency Report, said the assessment exposed significant gaps in Nigeria’s management and disclosure of public finances and should serve as a catalyst for comprehensive reforms ahead of the 2027 budget cycle.
The American report, which assessed Nigeria’s fiscal transparency practices between January 1 and December 31, 2025, placed the country among 67 of the 140 governments and entities reviewed that failed to meet minimum fiscal transparency requirements. Of the 67 governments that failed to meet the requirements, only 14 were assessed to have made significant progress in addressing identified deficiencies. Nigeria was not among those countries.
BudgIT said although the Fiscal Transparency Report focused specifically on fiscal disclosure and should not be regarded as a comprehensive assessment of all public financial management reforms being undertaken in Nigeria, its findings raised serious concerns about the credibility and accessibility of government financial information.
According to the organisation, the assessment reinforced longstanding concerns surrounding the quality of budget implementation reports, the independence and effectiveness of Nigeria’s audit institutions and the availability of public procurement information.
BudgIT said these shortcomings went beyond technical issues because they directly affected citizens’ ability to understand how government raises, allocates and spends public resources.
One of the major concerns identified in the US assessment was the inability of Nigeria’s budget documents to provide a substantially complete picture of government revenues and expenditures.
The report also found that actual government revenues and expenditures did not reasonably correspond with the enacted budget, raising questions about the credibility of the budget as a framework for fiscal planning and accountability.
BudgIT argued that a budget should not merely be an annual statement of government intentions but should provide a credible framework through which government communicates its fiscal priorities and commits public resources.
The organisation expressed particular concern that, despite the federal government’s continued publication of budget documents, actual budget implementation reporting remains inadequate.
BudgIT noted that publishing approved budget figures was not enough, stressing that the government must provide timely, consolidated and comprehensive information on actual revenue collection and expenditure.
It also pointed to Nigeria’s adoption of the International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) since 2016, arguing that the principles of transparency and accountability embedded in internationally accepted public-sector financial reporting should be reflected in the quality, timeliness and completeness of Nigeria’s fiscal reports.
The organisation also highlighted weaknesses in the country’s audit architecture. The US assessment found that the Office of the Auditor-General for the Federation does not meet international standards of independence and has not published substantive audit reports as required.
BudgIT said an effective supreme audit institution is essential to ensuring accountability because it independently assesses how public resources have been utilised and whether government spending complies with approved appropriations and applicable laws.
It warned that without adequate institutional independence and the timely publication of audit findings, the National Assembly, civil society organisations and citizens would be deprived of an important mechanism for scrutinising public expenditure.
BudgIT therefore called for the completion of long-overdue reforms to Nigeria’s audit framework, stressing that the continued reliance on an outdated legal framework for public auditing constrains the Auditor-General’s ability to operate with the independence, authority and institutional capacity required in a modern public financial management system.
The US report also found that accessible information on public procurement contracts was not sufficiently available to the public.
BudgIT said citizens should be able to follow the procurement process from the publication of procurement opportunities through bidding, contract award, execution and completion.
Commenting on the report, BudgIT’s Head of Research and Policy Advisory, Mrs Adejoke Akinbode, said the federal government should use Nigeria’s second consecutive failure to meet the US minimum fiscal transparency requirements as an opportunity to undertake a comprehensive review of the country’s fiscal disclosure architecture ahead of the 2027 budget cycle.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc again pulled down the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Thursday, August 20, by 1.11 per cent.
The securities depository company further lost N5.93 during the trading session to close at N82.20 per share versus the midweek closing price of N88.12 per share.
As a result, the NASD Security Index (NSI) slid by 48.25 points to 4,284.84 points from 4,333.09 points, and trimmed the bourse’s market capitalisation by N28.96 billion to N2.571 trillion from N2.60 trillion.
During the trading day, the price of Afriland Properties Plc went up by 50 Kobo to N20.50 per unit from N20.00 per unit.
Yesterday, the volume of securities transacted by investors slumped by 85.1 per cent to 112,218 units from 747,429 units, the value of securities fell by 95.2 per cent to 4.6 million from 9.4 million, and the number of deals decreased by 40.5 per cent to 25 deals from 42 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 79.9 million units worth N5.8 billion.
GNI Plc also finished the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units transacted for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.
