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Supply Crunch Spurs Crude Oil Market to Two-Month High

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The crude oil market jumped further on Thursday, supported by growing fuel demand and a draw in US crude inventories just as production remained hampered in the Gulf of Mexico after two hurricanes.

Brent crude rose by 1.39 per cent or $1.12 to sell at $77.25 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 1.48 per cent or $1.25 to trade at $73.30 per barrel.

Prices hit their highest levels since late July after US crude stocks dropped to their lowest in three years on the momentum of supply constraints in the US Gulf of Mexico, which was reflected in the large crude inventory draws report of last week.

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yet another crude oil inventory draw of 3.5 million barrels for the week to September 17, taking the total US crude oil inventories to just below 414 million barrels, which is the lowest level seen since October 2018.

There was also a fall in the US Dollar, which attracted investors to the commodity. The greenback, which usually has an inverse relationship with commodities prices, including oil, eased slightly from a one-month high.

The market was also supported by the US Federal Reserve signal that it could begin tapering asset purchases as soon as November and potentially start raising interest rates as soon as next year. Oil market participants turned their focus to global oil inventories, especially those in the United States.

Investors confidence also continued to strengthen as a return of appetite for risk assets as concerns eased over a possible near-term default by Chinese property developer China Evergrande on its Dollar bonds.

Market analysts added that surging natural gas prices were also attracting the rise as the supply shortage of gas could encourage power utilities to shift from gas to oil if winter turns out to be colder this year.

This is in addition to the fact that some members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ have struggled to raise output after years of under-investment or delays to maintenance work during the pandemic.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and others in the OPEC+ group of 23 oil-producing nations are adding about 400,000 barrels per day of supply to the market each month as they unwind historic cuts made last year.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

OPEC+ Boost Output by 206kb/d as Iran War Limits Production

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May.

Eight members of ​OPEC+, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed to the increase in May quota at a virtual meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ said in a statement.

However, the rise will be in theory, as its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has affected production.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil route, since the end of February and cut ​exports from some OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq. These are the only countries in the group which were able to significantly raise ​production even before the conflict began.

Besides the disruptions affecting Gulf members, others, ​such as Russia, are unable to increase output due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine. For Nigeria, even as Africa’s largest producer, it has not been able to keep production quotas steady.

The OPEC+ quota increase of 206,000 barrels per day ​represents less than 2 per cent of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure, but it signals readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens.

Also meeting on Sunday, a separate OPEC+ panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), expressed concern about attacks on energy assets, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply.

May’s OPEC+ increase is the ​same as the eight members had agreed for April at their last meeting held on March 1, just as the ​war began to disrupt ⁠oil flows.

A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million barrels per day or up to 15 per cent of global supply.

The eight OPEC+ members have raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April 2025 through December 2025, before pausing increases for January to ​March 2026. The sub-group holds its next meeting on May 3.

Market analysts have warned that oil prices could hit $150 per barrel if the closure of the strait is prolonged and continues, due to damage to energy assets across the critical Middle East region.

As of the time of this report, Brent crude is trading at $108 per barrel, below the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $109 per barrel.

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Economy

Seplat Operations Resume After Pay Rise Deal With Striking Workers

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Seplat Energy

By Adedapo Adesanya

Workers at Seplat Energy will resume work after a strike action that impacted production was called off by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) over the weekend, with the company issuing written commitments ‌on pay rises.

Top employees began an indefinite strike last Friday as talks over a collective bargaining agreement and staff ​welfare issues broke down. The action came at a time when Nigeria is ​seeking to maximise production amid rising global oil ⁠prices.

According to Reuters, in an April 4 letter to the chief executive of Seplat Nigeria, Mr Roger Brown, PENGASSAN said it had directed members at the local energy firm to immediately suspend industrial action after negotiations resumed with ​the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited. Other less-skilled workers are covered by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and did not partake in the strike with PENGASSAN.

The union said ​talks on a 2026 collective bargaining agreement would continue, with the ‌aim ⁠of concluding outstanding issues by April 13. However, according to the publication, the union did not disclose more details about its financial demands.

“We can confirm that the union has suspended its notice ​of industrial action ​to allow ⁠negotiations to conclude on outstanding items within an agreed framework,” Seplat spokesperson, Mr Ogechukwu Udeagha, ​said, adding that “operations are recommencing at our various locations.”

Seplat Energy’s group production averaged 131,506 ​barrels of oil ​equivalent per ⁠day in 2025, according to its latest audited results. That is the equivalent of around ​7 per cent–9 per cent of Nigeria’s total liquids production.

The company expects ​output ⁠to rise to 155,000 barrels of oil ​equivalent per ⁠day, making any sustained disruption particularly sensitive for Nigeria’s supply outlook. This comes as it seeks to ​scale production while remaining a major supplier of gas to Nigeria’s ​domestic power market.

With the company’s output expected to rise, any prolonged disruption would have significantly impacted Nigeria’s oil supply and fiscal outlook.

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Economy

NGX Weekly Turnover Drops 27.7% to 2.856 billion Equities

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By Dipo Olowookere

The weekly turnover of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited shrank by 27.70 per cent or 1.094 billion equities, partly due to the inability of market participants to trade last Friday as a result of the Good Friday public holiday declared by the federal government.

In the week, investors bought and sold 2.856 billion equities worth N113.597 billion in 215,287 deals versus the 3.950 billion equities valued at N201.312 billion transacted in 359,642 deals in the preceding week.

The activity chart was led by the financial services industry with 1.811 billion shares valued at N61.901 billion in 86,818 deals, contributing 63.41 per cent and 54.49 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The services sector traded 299.895 million stocks worth N2.966 billion in 13,797 deals, and the ICT segment exchanged 183.233 million equities for N14.654 billion in 25,287 deals.

Wema Bank, Access Holdings, and Secure Electronic Technology accounted for 734.659 million shares worth N14.134 billion in 12,319 deals, contributing 25.72 per cent and 12.44 per cent to the total trading volume and value apiece.

Data from the NGX said 29 stocks gained weight versus 47 stocks of the previous week, as 57 shares lost weight versus 45 shares in the preceding week, while 62 equities closed flat versus 56 equities a week earlier.

Multiverse led the gainers’ chart after it gained 20.66 per cent to trade at N20.15, UPDC REIT appreciated by 15.49 per cent to N8.20, International Energy Insurance chalked up 12.54 per cent to quote at N3.32, Austin Laz grew by 10.47 per cent to N4.43, and Unilever Nigeria rose by 10.00 per cent to N103.40.

Conversely, Secure Electronic Technology topped the losers’ table after it lost 21.54 per cent to close at N1.02, John Holt declined by 18.47 per cent to N15.45, May and Baker depreciated by 16.57 per cent to N35.00, Aluminium Extrusion moderated by 16.27 per cent to N10.55, and Legend Internet slipped by 16.00 per cent to N6.30.

Business Post reports that the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 0.39 per cent to 201,698,89 points, and the market capitalisation rose by 0.65 per cent to N129.806 trillion.

In the same vein, all other indices finished higher apart from the main board, insurance, MERI Value, consumer goods, industrial goods and growth indices, which went down by 0.29 per cent, 4.25 per cent, 0.36 per cent, 1.74 per cent, 0.24 per cent, and 0.06 per cent, respectively, while the sovereign bond index closed flat.

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