Economy
Supply Shortages in Nigeria, Others Lift Oil Prices
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices closed higher on Tuesday, with the Brent crude rising by 20 cents or 0.16 per cent to trade at $79.10 per barrel and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude growing by 5 cents or 0.04 per cent to sell at $76.02 per barrel.
The prices were lifted as a result of high aggregated production disruptions in Nigeria, Ecuador, and Libya amid the rapid spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant.
The three oil producers declared forces majeures this month on part of their oil production because of maintenance issues and oilfield shutdowns, causing supply shortages at the global market.
Nigeria has been experiencing shut-ins due to pipeline vandalism, community interferences, sabotage of oil facilities, among others and this has limited Africa’s largest oil producer’s capabilities to increase its production in recent months.
Ecuador’s government declared force majeure over its oil exports and production contracts on Monday because of the pipeline closures, caused by ongoing erosion in Napo province.
The country’s crude production averaged 485,000 barrels per day before the force majeure and by Tuesday it had fallen to close to 220,000 barrels per day, according to government data.
In Libya, production from El Sharara, Libya’s largest field with a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day, as well as the El Feel, Wafa and Hamada fields, had been shut down by the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), a paramilitary force whose brief is to protect NOC’s assets and facilities due to political dispute.
Support also came as Britain and France made no move to impose more COVID curbs before the year-end.
In addition, the expectation of another large drop in US crude inventories also helped prices as the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated the inventory draw for crude oil to be 3.09 million barrels.
US crude inventories have shed some 68 million barrels since the beginning of the year.
In the previous week, the API reported a draw in oil inventories of 3.670 million barrels, compared to the 2.633-million-barrel draw that analysts had predicted.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release the official figures on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Omicron-induced staff shortages led to thousands of flight cancellations over the Christmas weekend in the US, which could affect demand – although in the short term.
Investors continue to await a meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) on January 4, where it would be decided whether to go ahead with a planned production increase of 400,000 barrels per day in February.
Economy
SEC Okays 50% Hike in X-Alert Fee for Capital Market Transactions
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a 50 per cent hike in the X-Alert service fee per transaction in the Nigerian capital market.
The X-Alert fee is a flat rate charged for sending real-time SMS/email notifications for transactions to investors from both buy and sell sides.
It was introduced by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) to replace percentage-based charges, aimed at increasing transparency and reducing total transaction costs for investors.
Investors were earlier charged N4 per SMS, but the country’s apex capital market regulator has approved a 50 per cent increase in X-Alert service fee, meaning the new rate is N6 per SMS.
Business Post gathered from one of the players in the ecosystem that the effective date for the new price was Thursday, March 26, 2026.
“We wish to inform you of a revision to the X-Alert (SMS) service fee applicable to transactions executed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
“Following approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the X-Alert fee has been reviewed upward from N4.00 to N6.00 per transaction,” the notice sighted by this newspaper read.
Economy
World Bank Projects 4.2% Growth for Nigeria Amid Risks
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s economy is projected to remain resilient in the face of mounting global uncertainties, with the World Bank forecasting a 4.2 per cent growth rate in 2026.
However, the global lender has warned that rising fuel costs and persistent inflation, worsened by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could undermine household incomes and slow poverty reduction.
Speaking in Abuja, the bank’s lead economist for Nigeria, Mr Fiseha Haile, noted that while the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict has pushed up prices, overall economic activity has remained largely intact.
“Overall business activity has been expanding over the past few months, suggesting the impact on growth has been relatively contained. But the shock is still being felt through higher inflation,” Mr Haile said.
According to him, business activity has continued to expand in recent months, indicating that the broader impact on growth has been “relatively contained,” even as inflationary pressures intensify.
Nigeria’s inflation rate, though significantly reduced from around 33 per cent in December 2024 to 15.06 per cent in February 2026, remains elevated compared to regional peers.
“Inflation is still elevated and under increasing pressure, and that poses risks to incomes and poverty reduction,” Mr Haile said.
The renewed surge in fuel prices, reportedly rising by over 50 per cent during the Iran conflict, has had a ripple effect on transportation, food, and production costs, amplifying the cost-of-living crisis.
The World Bank urged Nigerian authorities to adopt prudent macroeconomic measures, including tightening monetary policy, avoiding blanket subsidies, and saving windfalls from higher oil prices to strengthen fiscal buffers.
It also recommended reconsidering restrictions on fuel imports as a potential tool to ease inflationary pressures.
The economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu — including the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate unification, and tax restructuring — were acknowledged as ambitious steps aimed at stabilising the economy.
These reforms have contributed to improved external buffers, with rising foreign exchange reserves and reduced volatility.
Additionally, Nigeria’s fiscal deficit stood at 3.1 per cent of GDP in 2025, while the debt-to-GDP ratio declined for the first time in a decade.
Yet, the World Bank cautioned that tighter global financial conditions could still pose risks to capital inflows, borrowing costs, and remittances.
Economy
FTSE Russell Restores Nigeria’s Frontier Market Status
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Frontier Market status of Nigeria, earlier yanked off by FTSE Russell, has now been fully restored.
The platform earlier reclassified the country’s status to Unclassified following several uncertainties and economic issues.
But after recommendations from its Equity Country Classification Advisory Committee and Policy Advisory Board, the Frontier Market status has been restored by FTSE Russell, marking a significant milestone in the country’s reintegration into global investment indices and signalling renewed opportunity for international investors.
However, this will take effect from September 2026, with the outcome announced as part of the March 2026 interim review and communicated to investors across key global markets.
The decision reflects sustained improvements in Nigeria’s market infrastructure, accessibility, and overall investability, driven in large part by enhancements to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) platform. These include strengthened trading systems, improved settlement processes, and increased transparency, all of which have contributed to a more efficient and accessible market environment for domestic and international investors.
According to the FTSE Quality of Markets assessment, Nigeria recorded Pass ratings across several core criteria, including regulatory oversight, capital repatriation, brokerage competitiveness, tax framework, and settlement efficiency, with a T+2 settlement cycle in operation. These gains reflect deliberate efforts to align market operations with global standards and improve the investor experience.
While acknowledging this progress, the review also highlighted areas for further development, including foreign exchange market depth, transaction cost efficiency, derivatives market availability, and certain custody and clearing mechanisms. Addressing these gaps will require continued coordination across regulators, market operators, and the broader financial ecosystem.
FTSE Russell noted that its country classification process combines detailed technical assessment with input from global institutional investors, ensuring that both structural conditions and real-world investor experience are reflected. The organisation also commended Nigerian market authorities for their continued engagement.
“This milestone reflects the strength of collaboration across Nigeria’s capital market ecosystem, but importantly, the deliberate efforts to strengthen the underlying market infrastructure that supports efficient trading, transparency, and investor access,” the chief executive of NGX Group Plc, Mr Temi Popoola, said.
“At NGX Group, we have remained focused on building a more resilient, accessible, and globally competitive platform, and this reclassification affirms the progress made.
“We will continue to work closely with regulators, market operators and stakeholders to deepen reforms, address identified gaps, and sustain momentum towards higher market classifications,” he added.
The Frontier Market designation is expected to enhance Nigeria’s visibility among global asset managers and index-tracking funds, potentially unlocking new capital inflows and broadening participation in the market.
As global investors increasingly prioritise markets with strong infrastructure, transparency, and accessibility, Nigeria’s re-entry into the FTSE Frontier Market universe underscores the critical role of market infrastructure in enabling capital formation and connecting local opportunities to global capital.
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