Fitch Affirms UBA at ‘B’ with Stable Outlook

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Fitch Ratings has affirmed United Bank for Africa Plc’s (UBA) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B’. The Outlook is Stable. The bank’s Viability Rating (VR) has been affirmed at ‘b’ and its Support Rating at ‘5’. The National Ratings have also been affirmed. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.

The bank’s IDRs are driven by its standalone creditworthiness, defined by the VR. The VR is constrained by Nigeria’s (B+/Negative) operating environment.

UBA is one of Nigeria’s largest banks, classified as domestically systemic by the regulator. It controls shares of loans and deposits in Nigeria of 7.5% and 9.5%, respectively. Its well-established franchise is a rating strength and internationalisation through expansion into 19 other sub-Saharan African countries adds to the franchise.

UBA’s earnings and profitability tend to be stable, which we view positively.

The bank reports a low impaired loans/gross loans ratio (around 4%), but loan loss cover at around 70% is on the low side compared with the average for large Nigerian banks (90%). UBA also has access to collateral. Corporate lending dominates the loan book, but much of it is collateralised. UBA’s exposure to the oil and gas sector represents 20% of total loans, lower than the 30% sector average but concentrations by single borrower can be high. This is particularly the case in some of the African subsidiaries.

UBA’s foreign currency liquidity position improved following the issue of a USD500 million senior medium-term bond on the international capital markets in June 2017. UBA’s local currency funding profile is a rating strength. The group is largely funded by historically stable deposits and UBA’s strategy is to continue to expand its low-cost retail deposit base. Retail deposits represent about a third of customer deposits, which is higher than average for rated peers. Local currency liquidity ratios are high.

UBA’s capital ratios are in line with other large Nigerian banks but the bank’s overall capitalisation still provides relatively narrow buffers and only limited loss-absorption capacity, in our view. This is because concentrations can be high, exposing the bank to the risk of unexpected losses.

UBA’s National Ratings reflect its creditworthiness relative to Nigeria’s best credit and to peers operating in Nigeria.

SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR

Fitch believes that sovereign support to Nigerian banks cannot be relied on given Nigeria’s weak ability to provide support, particularly in foreign currency. In addition, there are no clear messages from the authorities regarding their willingness to support the banking system. Therefore, the Support Rating Floor of all Nigerian banks is ‘No Floor’ and all Support Ratings are ‘5’. This reflects our view that senior creditors cannot rely on receiving full and timely extraordinary support from the Nigerian sovereign if any of the banks become non-viable.

SENIOR DEBT

Senior debt is rated at the same level as the bank’s Long-Term IDR because in our view, the likelihood of default on these notes reflects the likelihood of default of the bank. The Recovery Rating (RR) assigned to these notes is ‘RR4’, indicating average recovery prospects.

The bank’s IDRs, National Ratings and VR are primarily sensitive to either improvements or deterioration in asset quality and capital adequacy. Given the still fragile economy in Nigeria and credit weakness in many other sub-Saharan African countries, upgrade potential is considered limited at present.

The SR is potentially sensitive to any change in assumptions around the propensity or ability of the sovereign to provide timely support to the bank.

The senior debt is sensitive to a change in UBA’s Long-Term IDR.

The rating actions are as follows:

Long-Term IDR affirmed at ‘B’; Outlook Stable

Short-Term IDR affirmed at ‘B’

Viability Rating affirmed at ‘b’

National Long-Term Rating affirmed at A+(nga)’

Short-Term National Rating affirmed at ‘F1(nga)’

Support Rating affirmed at ‘5’

Support Rating Floor affirmed at ‘NF’

Long-term senior unsecured debt affirmed at ‘B’/RR4