Banking
S&P Forecasts 25% Credit Growth for Nigerian Banks in 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigerian banks are expected to post stronger credit growth of up to 25 per cent in 2026 while retaining positive profitability, according to a new outlook by S&P Global Ratings.
In its Nigerian Banking Outlook 2026, S&P said improved lending to key sectors of the economy alongside resilient non-interest income would help banks absorb the impact of regulatory headwinds and easing interest rates.
The ratings agency projected credit growth of between 20 and 25 per cent in 2026, driven largely by increased investments in oil and gas, agriculture and manufacturing.
It added that the outlook for lending was supported by expectations of moderating inflation and gradual monetary easing, following recent interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
“We expect credit growth of about 20-25 per cent supported by investments in the oil and gas, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors. Although interest rates have started to decrease, profitability should stay resilient in 2026, supported by growth in non-interest income (NII) and lower provisions.
“We expect Nigerian banks to prove resilient and capable of preserving their profitability in 2026,” S&P said, noting that earnings would be supported by transaction driven fees, commissions and a still elevated cost of risk, even as margins come under pressure.
The ratings agency noted further that it expects nominal lending growth to remain high at about 25 per cent, supported largely by investments in the oil and gas sector, agriculture and manufacturing.
S&P said Nigerian banks would continue to benefit from rates that remain high relative to peers, supporting net interest margins while interest rates are expected to decline further in 2026.
“Although interest rates have started to decline, we expect rates to remain high relative to peers, which will continue to support banks’ net interest margins through 2026.
“We forecast the average return on equity (ROE) will normalise at 20-23 per cent in 2026 compared to 25 per cent estimated for 2025, while return on assets will decline marginally to 3.0-3.1 per cent from an estimated 3.3 per cent in 2025. Profitability will be supported by still high interest margins, growing NII, and slightly lower provisions, while capital issuance will increase the equity base leading to a lower ROE.
“Although interest rates have started to decline, we expect rates to be high relative to peers, which will continue to support the banks’ net interest margins through 2026. We forecast an average margin drop of about 50bps to 100bps in 2026, as banks’ margins will continue to benefit from higher yields on government securities and large recourse to low-cost customer deposits.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, says Nigeria anticipates remittances from citizens living abroad to increase by two-thirds in 2026 as it seeks to bolster its foreign-exchange reserves to $1 billion monthly.
“We are expecting that by the end of the year, we will hit about a billion Dollars a month from diaspora remittances,” he said at the 14th Annual BusinessDay CEO Forum in Lagos on Thursday, themed From Stability to Shared Prosperity.
Mr Cardoso said remittances are expected to be boosted from more than $600 million currently, banking on the CBN’s deliberate target at remittances to diversify reserve sources beyond oil earnings.
According to him, the apex bank engaged Nigerians abroad, banks and international partners to identify barriers to official remittance flows.
He said the lender subsequently reviewed policies to ensure easier movement of funds into and out of the country.
Mr Cardoso described the approach as providing free entry and free exit for foreign exchange.
He said the reforms helped double diaspora inflows within one year and exceeded initial expectations, also projecting annual remittances could reach about $8 billion if the current momentum was sustained, adding that the development reflected growing confidence in Nigeria’s financial system and foreign exchange market.
Mr Cardoso said reforms introduced by the apex bank had restored stability in the foreign exchange market and improved investors’ confidence.
He identified exchange rate unification as one of the central bank’s major achievements under the reforms programme.
According to him, replacing multiple exchange rate windows with a market-driven system eliminated distortions and improved transparency.
Mr Cardoso said improved foreign exchange liquidity and stronger reserves were among the gains from the reforms.
He said Nigeria’s net external reserves had risen from about $3 billion at the start of the reforms to above $40 billion currently, noting that gross external reserves had grown to about $52 billion, representing about 10 months of import cover.
According to him, the reserves are designed to shield the economy from external shocks and excessive market volatility.
He said the reserves were not meant for routine interventions or day-to-day exchange rate management.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The flagship banking subsidiary of Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) Plc, Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank) Limited, has been announced as the winner of Nigeria’s Best Digital Bank award at the Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2026.
The lender clinched this accolade at the Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2026 ceremony, held on July 17, 2026, at The Peninsula London, England, for its outstanding performance, innovation, customer service, and leadership.
GTBank’s recognition as Nigeria’s Best Digital Bank reflects its continued leadership in digital innovation and its commitment to delivering seamless, secure, and customer-centric financial solutions.
As the banking franchise of GTCO, GTBank has consistently set industry benchmarks in digital transformation, pioneering solutions that have redefined how individuals and businesses access, manage, and experience financial services.
Over the years, GTBank has transformed the banking experience through a suite of innovative digital platforms, including the GTWORLD mobile app and solutions that provide millions of customers with seamless, secure, and convenient access to financial services.
The bank continues to strengthen its digital capabilities by introducing products and services that meet evolving customer needs while maintaining the highest standards of security, reliability, and service excellence.
This latest recognition underscores the company’s position as a market leader and reflects its sustained investment in technology, operational excellence, and innovation.
“This recognition is a testament to the legacy upon which GTBank was built and the vision that continues to guide us today.
“From inception, our goal has been to deliver on the Group’s vision to make end-to-end financial services accessible to everyone by leveraging technology to remove barriers, simplify experiences, and create meaningful value for our customers,” the chief executive of GTBank, Mrs Miriam Olusanya, stated.
“While we are honoured by this recognition, we see it as an acknowledgement of what we have achieved and a motivation to do even more.
“We remain focused on raising the bar for digital banking, investing in innovative solutions, and delivering exceptional experiences that create lasting value for our customers.
“As the financial services landscape continues to evolve, we will continue to innovate, adapt, and lead with the same commitment to excellence that has defined our franchise for decades,” she added.
The Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2026 convened leading financial institutions, industry executives, and policymakers from across the globe to celebrate excellence, innovation, and leadership in the financial services sector.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A collaboration to enable fast money transfers into Nigeria has been entered into between Flutterwave and Xoom, PayPal’s international digital money transfer service.
The partnership allows Xoom transfers to be converted by Flutterwave and settled locally in Naira, enabling quick transfers directly into recipients’ bank accounts at Access Bank, UBA, Zenith Bank, First Bank, GTBank, and additional participating banks across Nigeria.
The deal also enables Xoom’s global network with Flutterwave’s local payout infrastructure, allowing users globally to send funds directly into Nigerian bank accounts with improved speed and efficiency.
Nigeria is the leading remittance recipient in Sub-Saharan Africa, receiving over $20 billion in personal remittances in 2024. Despite this volume, receiving international payments has historically remained complex due to FX constraints and settlement delays. This collaboration helps address those challenges in a market of more than 232 million people, where the ICT sector is projected to contribute 21 per cent of GDP by 2027.
By combining Xoom’s expansive reach with Flutterwave’s local compliance and banking partnerships, the two companies are providing a more accessible financial corridor for the continent.
Xoom, a PayPal service, is a fast and secure international digital money transfer service that enables consumers to send money, pay bills, and reload phones for friends and family in approximately 160 markets globally.
As part of PayPal’s global payments ecosystem, Xoom leverages advanced fraud protection, compliance capabilities, and a trusted global network to help millions of customers move money quickly and securely across borders.
“We’re excited to have been chosen by Xoom for their Nigeria expansion. Millions of Nigerians rely on money from abroad to support everyday needs, whether it’s families receiving help from loved ones, freelancers getting paid for their work, or individuals earning income from the global economy. This helps make it easy and more reliable for people in Nigeria to receive funds and stay connected to opportunities beyond borders,” the chief executive of Flutterwave, Mr Olugbenga GB Agboola, stated.
