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Stock Analysis: Zenith Bank Sets for Impressive FY-2017 Performance Amid Credit Loss Pressure

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By Cordros Research

Zenith Bank recorded a 44.57 percent growth in interest income in H1-17. On our 12.98 percent estimated assets yield, we believe the run rate will be sustained for the rest of the year, equating to 36.38 percent y/y growth in interest income to N524.46 billion.

The bank’s portfolio of investment securities, treasury bills, and quality loan books will be catalysts of the growth in assets yield. We also forecast NIR to surge by 51.16 percent to N186.60 billion, buoyed by strong trading income, revaluation gains, and marginal write-back of previous provisions.

Overall, we forecast a 39.97 percent growth in gross earnings to N711.06 billion in 2017F.

That said, PBT and PAT growth will be muted, owing to the impact of the elevated cost of refinancing maturing FCY obligations, higher impairment provisioning on transportation (specifically the aviation sector), communication and general commerce exposure, and a surge in total operating expenses (opex).

In a bid to meet maturing FCY obligations during the year, Zenith Bank issued the second tranche of its $1 billion Global Medium-Term Note Programme established in 2014. The programme was completed in May and the bank successfully raised $500 million (at a coupon rate of 7.375 percent, a 113bps premium over the first tranche).

The bank’s balance sheet as at H1-17 ending reveals that FCY borrowings worth $593.80 million (KEXIM $16.44 million, ABSA Bank $151 million, JP Morgan $75.05 million, Standard Bank $273.83 million, First Rand Bank $6.52 million, Citi Global Markets $51.96 million, and BACA $18 million) are due for maturity between May and October 2017.

We believe both the Eurobond and the newly secured borrowings during the year (SMBCE $49.75 million and AFC $181.9 million) came at higher cost relative to the maturing loans (mostly concessional borrowings) having estimated weighted average rate of 5.15 percent.

Accordingly, and given the continued tight domestic interest rate environment, we expect cost of funds to expand 125 bps y/y to 5.40 percent in 2017F – translating to interest expense of N235.88 billion.

However, we expect the stronger expansion in asset yields will offset the growth in funding cost, thus, we forecast an uptick in net-interest margin by 25 bps to 7.65 percent.

In H1-17, Zenith Bank made a 30 percent provision on its exposure to 9 Mobile (formerly Etisalat Nigeria) which resulted in a surge in credit loss provision (COR rose to 3.6 percent, from 1.3 percent in Q1-17 and H1-16) to N42.40 billion. Though we acknowledge the fact that a haircut is eminent on the syndicated exposure to 9Mobile, it is our understanding that most of the provisions booked in H1-17 by Zenith Bank was on its bilateral loan to the telco and not entirely on its share as a part of the syndicate.

Despite the bank restructuring 11.8 percent of its gross loan in H1-17(with oil & gas exposure representing 10.1 percent of the restructured exposure) as well as declassified some power exposure (down to 1.0 percent from 43.0 percent in FY-16), NPL still rose to 4.3 percent (N99.19 billion) from 3.0 percent (N71.37 billion) in FY-16, as the bank classified 37.6 percent (vs. 1.5 percent in FY-16) and 27.4 percent (vs. 18.5 percent in FY-16) of its transportation and general commerce exposure as NPL.

Overall, for 2017F, we estimate Zenith Bank’s NPL to increase to 4.50 percent, from 3.00 percent in FY-16 and 4.30 percent in H1-17, and cost of risks to rise to 2.68 percent, translating to a credit loss provision of N77.13 billion in 2017F.

We estimate opex to rise 29.63 percent y/y to N226.24 billion in 2017F (driven largely by higher regulatory levies on operating expenses) – translating to a 415 bps y/y expansion in CIR to 56.84 percent and growth in operational leverage to 4.5x (from 4.0x in FY-16).

Accordingly, we expect the impact of the increase in opex to limit the trickling down effect of the rise in gross earnings – we estimate PBT and PAT to rise 9.61 percent and 8.28 percent to N171.81 billion and N140.38 billion, respectively.

While acknowledging the impressive performance across income lines in H1-17, which resulted in an upward revision in earnings for the year, we believe the revaluation-bloated growth in NIR will taper in 2018, and factoring in the impact of the adoption of IFRS 9 from 2018 (with management guiding to a 20 percent impact on credit loss provision and 1 percent drop in CAR), we now expect PAT to grow lower than previously estimated over 2018F-2019F.

Hence, we revise our target price on the stock downward to N27.18 (Previous: N30.63), translating to 13.26 percent upside from current price of 24.00 (as at 21/08/2017).

Zenith Bank is currently trading at 2017F P/BVPS of 1.0x (above peer average of 0.9x and below the 5-year average of 1.1x) and P/E of 5.6x (above peer average of 5.2x and below the 5-year average of 5.9x). HOLD.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Banking

Ecobank, DHL Organise Programme to Unlock Fresh Possibilities for SMEs

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Some entrepreneurs across diverse sectors recently completed a three‑week intensive capacity‑building programme organised by Ecobank Nigeria, in partnership with DHL.

The event was put together to equip Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) with the skills, tools, and insights required to scale beyond local markets and compete globally.

The focus was on critical growth enablers such as cross‑border trade, e‑commerce opportunities, logistics, customs procedures, and international shipping—key pillars for sustainable expansion in today’s increasingly connected global marketplace.

In one of the sessions, titled Trade and Grow Beyond Borders: Welcome to E‑commerce, the Relationship Channel Manager for DHL Customers/Global Express, Mr Charles Eke, underscored logistics as a critical success factor for SMEs, identifying key challenges such as access to finance, markets, and efficient logistics.

He also provided practical guidance on customs processes, international shipping, documentation, and shipment tracking, while emphasising the immense opportunities e‑commerce presents for cross‑border expansion.

According to him, international markets often offer greater growth potential than domestic markets for well‑positioned SMEs.

The Head of SMEs, Partnerships and Collaborations at Ecobank Nigeria, Mrs Omoboye Odu, described the programme as a catalyst for meaningful growth and mindset change.

“Over the past three weeks, something truly powerful has taken place. This programme has gone far beyond knowledge sharing—it has inspired new thinking and unlocked fresh possibilities for our SMEs. The message is clear: no business should be limited by geography,” she said.

Mrs Odu reiterated Ecobank’s deliberate focus on SMEs as key drivers of Africa’s economic development, saying, “Beyond building capacity, we are intentionally opening doors by connecting businesses to new markets and opportunities. With our presence in over 30 African countries, coupled with integrated payment, trade finance, and e‑commerce solutions, Ecobank is uniquely positioned as the Pan‑African bank enabling seamless cross‑border trade.”

One of the participants, Ms Dolapo Fatoki of Debsfray, a Lagos-based fashion brand, described the initiative as impactful, practical, and transformative.

“The sessions were highly informative. I gained a deeper understanding of documentation and pricing, two areas that previously posed major challenges for me. The collaboration between DHL and Ecobank has been exceptional and truly beneficial,” she noted.

Similarly, the Creative Director of FC Accessories, Mr Tosin Olukuade, described the programme as “an eye‑opener,” adding that it reshaped his approach to business growth.

“The insights I gained will help me scale my business exponentially. I am grateful to Ecobank and DHL for creating this opportunity,” he said.

Reflecting on the programme’s digital focus, the chief executive of Needle Point, Mrs Theresa Onwuka, highlighted how the sessions broadened her outlook on growth and innovation.

“The class was so good—it got my mind thinking of possibilities. My main takeaway is clear: digitalisation is the way forward,” she remarked.

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Banking

Banks to Submit Monthly Reports on Failed Digital Transactions

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed banks and other financial institutions to submit monthly reports on failed electronic transactions across digital channels, as part of new compliance measures introduced in its revised Guide to Charges.

The directive was contained in a circular titled Exposure Draft of the Guide to Charges by Banks and Other Financial Institutions in Nigeria, 2026 (The Guide) and signed by the Director of the Financial Policy and Regulation Department, Mrs Rita Sike.

According to the apex bank, Chief Compliance Officers and Heads of Information Technology in financial institutions are required to jointly render electronic reports of all failed transactions conducted via Automated Teller Machines, Point of Sale terminals, mobile channels, web platforms, and other electronic systems.

The circular read, “The Chief Compliance Officer and Head Information Technology shall jointly render monthly reports electronically, of all failed electronic transactions via various e-channels (ATM, PoS, mobile, web/internet and related channels) that originate or terminate in the institution.”

The reports are to be submitted to designated CBN email addresses, reinforcing the regulator’s push for stricter monitoring of service failures across the banking system.

Beyond the reporting requirement, the CBN also introduced broader accountability measures, placing responsibility on top management of financial institutions to ensure strict adherence to the new guide.

Executive Compliance Officers or Managing Directors are mandated to cascade compliance expectations across all business units and ensure that banking systems are configured to apply only approved charges.

Specifically, the regulator directed that Heads of Information Technology must ensure that “all systems configurations only capture and allow posting of charges as permitted and described in this Guide,” while Chief Compliance Officers are to monitor strict compliance with the framework.

The revised guide, effective May 1, 2026, replaces the 2020 version and provides a comprehensive framework for charges across banking and other financial services.

The CBN explained that the review was aimed at promoting a safe and sound financial system, encouraging innovation, and expanding financial inclusion through lower tariffs on micropayments and transactions.

It added that the revised framework would strengthen oversight and accountability, encourage the adoption of electronic payment channels, and accommodate new industry participants.

Business Post also reported that the regulator has raised ATM card fees by 50 per cent to N1,500 and scrapped the monthly maintenance charge.

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CBN Proposes N1,500 ATM Card Fee, N150 e-Dividend Mandate Processing Fee

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has proposed that financial institutions operating in the country should charge N150 for the e-dividend mandate processing fee from May 1, 2026.

This was contained in the latest Guide to Charges by Banks and Other Financial Institutions in Nigeria, signed by the Director of the Financial Policy and Regulation Department of the CBN, Ms Rita Sikе.

The move is to promote a safe and sound financial system in Nigeria, accelerate the adoption of innovative financial services, financial inclusion and micropayments/transactions.

The reviewed guide, according to the central bank, provides for an increased range of financial services, encourages development of innovative products, strengthens responsibility for oversight and accountability and promotes financial inclusion through lower tariffs for micropayments/transactions.

It also reviewed some charges for banking services to encourage increased adoption of electronic channels and accommodate new industry participants since the issuance of the 2020 guide.

“In view of the above, the draft guide is hereby exposed to members of the public for their comments/input on the proposed fees contained therein. Comments are to be sent to [email protected] on or before May 08, 2026,” a part of the note stated.

In the draft, the banking sector regulator is suggesting the payment of N1,500 for local debit card issuance and replacement by customers and a $10 annual fee for foreign currency-denominated debit/credit cards.

For on-site ATM transactions, a charge of N100 per N20,000 withdrawal was proposed and N100 plus a surcharge of not more than N500 per N20,000 withdrawal. It emphasised that the surcharge, which is an income of the ATM deployer/acquirer, shall be disclosed at the point of withdrawal to the consumer.

The bank also said that for electronic fund transfers below N5,000, no fee would be collected, but from N5,000 to N50,000, customers would part with N10, and for transfers above N50,000, the fee of N50 would be paid, while for microfinance banks, there would be the settlement bank’s charge plus 10 per cent of the charge.

The CBN noted that this guide applies to commercial banks, merchant banks, Payment Service Banks (PSBs), non-interest banks, microfinance banks, finance companies, Primary Mortgage Banks (PMBs), Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), credit guarantee companies, Mobile Money Operators (MMOs), and any other institution as may be designated by it.

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