Banking
Stock Analysis: Zenith Bank Sets for Impressive FY-2017 Performance Amid Credit Loss Pressure
Zenith Bank recorded a 44.57 percent growth in interest income in H1-17. On our 12.98 percent estimated assets yield, we believe the run rate will be sustained for the rest of the year, equating to 36.38 percent y/y growth in interest income to N524.46 billion.
The bank’s portfolio of investment securities, treasury bills, and quality loan books will be catalysts of the growth in assets yield. We also forecast NIR to surge by 51.16 percent to N186.60 billion, buoyed by strong trading income, revaluation gains, and marginal write-back of previous provisions.
Overall, we forecast a 39.97 percent growth in gross earnings to N711.06 billion in 2017F.
That said, PBT and PAT growth will be muted, owing to the impact of the elevated cost of refinancing maturing FCY obligations, higher impairment provisioning on transportation (specifically the aviation sector), communication and general commerce exposure, and a surge in total operating expenses (opex).
In a bid to meet maturing FCY obligations during the year, Zenith Bank issued the second tranche of its $1 billion Global Medium-Term Note Programme established in 2014. The programme was completed in May and the bank successfully raised $500 million (at a coupon rate of 7.375 percent, a 113bps premium over the first tranche).
The bank’s balance sheet as at H1-17 ending reveals that FCY borrowings worth $593.80 million (KEXIM $16.44 million, ABSA Bank $151 million, JP Morgan $75.05 million, Standard Bank $273.83 million, First Rand Bank $6.52 million, Citi Global Markets $51.96 million, and BACA $18 million) are due for maturity between May and October 2017.
We believe both the Eurobond and the newly secured borrowings during the year (SMBCE $49.75 million and AFC $181.9 million) came at higher cost relative to the maturing loans (mostly concessional borrowings) having estimated weighted average rate of 5.15 percent.
Accordingly, and given the continued tight domestic interest rate environment, we expect cost of funds to expand 125 bps y/y to 5.40 percent in 2017F – translating to interest expense of N235.88 billion.
However, we expect the stronger expansion in asset yields will offset the growth in funding cost, thus, we forecast an uptick in net-interest margin by 25 bps to 7.65 percent.
In H1-17, Zenith Bank made a 30 percent provision on its exposure to 9 Mobile (formerly Etisalat Nigeria) which resulted in a surge in credit loss provision (COR rose to 3.6 percent, from 1.3 percent in Q1-17 and H1-16) to N42.40 billion. Though we acknowledge the fact that a haircut is eminent on the syndicated exposure to 9Mobile, it is our understanding that most of the provisions booked in H1-17 by Zenith Bank was on its bilateral loan to the telco and not entirely on its share as a part of the syndicate.
Despite the bank restructuring 11.8 percent of its gross loan in H1-17(with oil & gas exposure representing 10.1 percent of the restructured exposure) as well as declassified some power exposure (down to 1.0 percent from 43.0 percent in FY-16), NPL still rose to 4.3 percent (N99.19 billion) from 3.0 percent (N71.37 billion) in FY-16, as the bank classified 37.6 percent (vs. 1.5 percent in FY-16) and 27.4 percent (vs. 18.5 percent in FY-16) of its transportation and general commerce exposure as NPL.
Overall, for 2017F, we estimate Zenith Bank’s NPL to increase to 4.50 percent, from 3.00 percent in FY-16 and 4.30 percent in H1-17, and cost of risks to rise to 2.68 percent, translating to a credit loss provision of N77.13 billion in 2017F.
We estimate opex to rise 29.63 percent y/y to N226.24 billion in 2017F (driven largely by higher regulatory levies on operating expenses) – translating to a 415 bps y/y expansion in CIR to 56.84 percent and growth in operational leverage to 4.5x (from 4.0x in FY-16).
Accordingly, we expect the impact of the increase in opex to limit the trickling down effect of the rise in gross earnings – we estimate PBT and PAT to rise 9.61 percent and 8.28 percent to N171.81 billion and N140.38 billion, respectively.
While acknowledging the impressive performance across income lines in H1-17, which resulted in an upward revision in earnings for the year, we believe the revaluation-bloated growth in NIR will taper in 2018, and factoring in the impact of the adoption of IFRS 9 from 2018 (with management guiding to a 20 percent impact on credit loss provision and 1 percent drop in CAR), we now expect PAT to grow lower than previously estimated over 2018F-2019F.
Hence, we revise our target price on the stock downward to N27.18 (Previous: N30.63), translating to 13.26 percent upside from current price of 24.00 (as at 21/08/2017).
Zenith Bank is currently trading at 2017F P/BVPS of 1.0x (above peer average of 0.9x and below the 5-year average of 1.1x) and P/E of 5.6x (above peer average of 5.2x and below the 5-year average of 5.9x). HOLD.
Banking
CBN Unveils New Revised Manual to Modernise FX Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has unveiled the fourth edition of its Foreign Exchange Manual as part of efforts to deepen liquidity, improve transparency and strengthen confidence in the country’s foreign exchange market.
Speaking at the launch of the revised manual in Abuja on Friday, the Governor of the apex bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, said the document will take effect from June 1, 2026.
He said it was developed after extensive consultations with banks, exporters, importers, corporates, regulators and development partners.
He said the new framework reflects the apex bank’s commitment to modernising the country’s foreign exchange administration in line with international best practices.
Mr Cardoso described the foreign exchange market as a critical pillar of any open economy, noting that effective governance of the sector is essential for sustaining macroeconomic stability and investor confidence.
“Foreign exchange is more than a financial instrument. It anchors price stability, facilitates the flow of goods and capital, and shapes investor sentiment,” he said.
The CBN governor stressed that the revised manual became necessary due to changing global economic realities, domestic reforms and the need for a more coherent and forward-looking regulatory framework.
According to him, the last edition of the FX manual was issued in 2018, making the latest review both timely and necessary.
Mr Cardoso disclosed that Nigeria’s foreign exchange market has witnessed significant improvement in liquidity since the current administration began reforms in the sector.
He added that daily turnover in the FX market increased from an average of about $100 million in the early days of the administration to between $400 million and $600 million daily.
The CBN Governor added that the market had also recorded transactions of up to $1 billion per day on several occasions in recent months.
“We have gone from a situation where it was more or less a one-way market, where the central bank came in, intervened and went away, to a much more dynamic market,” he stated.
The apex bank boss noted that the reforms were gradually restoring confidence among investors and market participants, encouraging freer entry and exit in the market without unnecessary restrictions.
He also maintained that the nation’s foreign reserves should not be used as the primary tool for funding the foreign exchange market.
“Reserves are reserves. They are not what you look to fund a market,” he said.
The CBN Governor assured stakeholders that the revised manual would be distributed free of charge to authorised dealers while the bank strengthens monitoring mechanisms to ensure compliance, fairness and accountability across the foreign exchange market.
On his part, the Deputy Governor for Economic Policy, Mr Muhammad Abdullahi, said the review formed part of broader reforms initiated by Mr Cardoso to restore confidence, improve transparency and deepen liquidity in the foreign exchange market.
Mr Abdullahi explained that the revised manual introduces several changes aimed at improving ease of doing business and reducing transaction bottlenecks.
Among the notable changes, he noted, are provisions allowing unfettered access to export proceeds, the introduction of non-resident investment accounts and operational guidelines for Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) transactions to support regional trade.
Mr Abdullahi added that the manual also contains new provisions on service exports, revised documentation requirements and updated operational procedures designed to align Nigeria’s FX market with global standards.
He said the apex bank deliberately adopted an ease of doing business approach during the review process to eliminate inefficiencies and ambiguities identified by stakeholders.
“The revised manual is not a stand-alone exercise but part of a broader institutional reform effort designed to strengthen the integrity, credibility and effectiveness of Nigeria’s foreign exchange system,” he said.
Banking
CBN Authorises Omodayo-Owotuga’s Inclusion into First Bank Board
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has approved the appointment of Mr Julius Omodayo-Owotuga to the board of First Bank of Nigeria Limited as an executive director.
A statement from the company said the appointment of Mr Omodayo-Owotuga became effective on Wednesday, May 13, 2026.
He was appointed to the board of the subsidiary of First Holdco Plc to further strengthen its leadership capacity across strategic finance, governance, risk management, and institutional transformation.
Before now, he served on the board of First Holdco as a non-executive director between 2021 and 2026.
The appointee brings to the board 24 years of experience spanning banking and financial services, infrastructure finance, power, oil & gas, and audit and consulting.
His appointment, according to the notice to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, reflects the Bank’s continued commitment to strong governance, disciplined execution, financial resilience, and sustainable long-term growth.
He most recently served as deputy chief executive of Geregu Power Plc, Nigeria’s first listed power generation company, where he played a pivotal role in institutional transformation, governance strengthening, capital market positioning, operational optimisation, and major financing initiatives, including the company’s landmark listing on NGX.
Mr Omodayo-Owotuga previously served as group executive director, Finance & Risk Management at Forte Oil Plc (now Ardova Plc), where he was instrumental in the company’s financial and operational transformation, leading strategic restructuring, capital raising, treasury optimisation, enterprise risk management, and governance improvement initiatives that strengthened long-term shareholder value.
His professional career also includes roles at Africa Finance Corporation, Standard Chartered Bank, KPMG Professional Services and MBC International Bank (Now First Bank Nigeria Limited), providing him with deep experience in institutional finance, treasury management, financial controls, regulatory engagement, and corporate advisory.
Mr Omodayo-Owotuga is a CFA Charter Holder, KPMG-trained Accountant, and a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN), and the Institute of Credit Administration. He is also a member of the Institute of Directors (IoD) Nigeria and a Certified Management Accountant.
He holds a Doctorate in Business Administration, a Master’s in Business Administration and a Bachelor’s degree in Accounting. He is an alumnus of Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, IE Business School, Geneva Business School, and the University of Lagos.
Banking
ASBON Honours Union Bank for Advancing Growth of Nigerian SMEs
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
In recognition of its strategic leadership in advancing the growth and resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), Union Bank of Nigeria Plc has been honoured by the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON).
The lender was rewarded by the group for its suite of solutions designed to enable business expansion and long-term value creation.
At the Nigeria National SME Business Awards, held recently in Lagos, Union Bank was given the Best SME Growth Banking Initiatives Award for 2025.
The ceremony was organised by ASBON in partnership with the Lagos State government through the Ministry of Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment.
The event convened stakeholders from the public and private sectors to recognise individuals and organisations driving meaningful impact across Nigeria’s SME ecosystem.
Receiving the award on behalf of the bank, its Head of SME Segment, Mr Ayokunnumi Abraham, described the recognition as a strong endorsement of the organisation’s commitment to supporting small and medium-sized businesses.
“We are honoured to receive this recognition, which reflects Union Bank’s continued commitment to helping SMEs grow by making banking simpler, faster, and more accessible.
“Through enhancements to our specialised platforms such as Union360, we have meaningfully reduced the time it takes for businesses to come on board and begin transacting.
“These improvements have shortened onboarding, increased digital adoption among our SME customers, and supported the acquisition of new business clients. Our focus remains on delivering practical solutions that help Nigerian businesses thrive,” he stated.
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