Economy
2023 Economic Outlook For Nigeria
By Emmanuel Otori
In conjunction with the IMF/World Bank annual meetings, forecasts released at the July World Economic Outlook in 2022 projected Nigeria’s inflation to fall to 17% and an increase in its Gross Domestic Product GDP by 3.4% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. Reprojected in October’s World Economic Outlook, Nigeria’s GDP is projected to drop to 3.2% in 2023, with a difference of 0.2% in the July 2022 projection. The IMF estimates that by 2023, Nigeria’s inflation will have decreased to 17% from a projected 19%.
According to the African Development Bank Group (AFDB), growth will slow, averaging 3.2% from 2022 to 2023, because of the continued low oil production and rising insecurity. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, rising food, gas, and diesel costs, and continuous supply disruptions are all anticipated to play a part in keeping inflation high in 2022 at 16.9% and above pre-pandemic levels in 2023.
While oil exports are anticipated to slightly increase and capital inflows to rebound, an expected positive oil price shock on exports may be substantially outweighed by a poor output effect caused by lower oil production, which is fueled by inadequate infrastructure and increased insecurity.
The anticipated 0.1% of GDP marginal current account surplus in 2022 could turn into a 0.2% deficit in 2023. With greater revenue collection, the budget deficit will typically drop to 4.5% of GDP. Furthermore, it is predicted that by 2024, the government debt is expected to reach 40% of GDP due to new borrowing.
From the IMF’s Research Department, Daniel Leigh, the Divisional Chief indicated that the recent increase in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), as well as the global fall in the price of crude oil and food, are the foundations for the reduced inflation rate forecasts for Nigeria. However, the IMF’s Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of Research, provided guidance to the CBN and its international counterparts on the selection of monetary policy instruments necessary to reduce inflation.
The IMF’s lower growth rate forecast for the global economy in 2023 was consistent with predictions for Nigeria’s GDP growth. Projections on the global economic growth for 2022 were retained at 3.2%, whereas they are projected to decrease to 2.7% in 2023. In a statement describing why it anticipates slower global growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided an explanation:
“The world economy continues to face steep challenges, shaped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis caused by persistent and broadening inflation pressures, and the slowdown in China…”
Curbing Economic Crisis
According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, fiscal policy should not conflict with the efforts of the monetary authorities because, otherwise, it will only prolong the existing inflation leading to a severe financial crisis. Fiscal policy should also focus on the most vulnerable groups for a short-term period. In addition, fiscal policy can aid economies in adjusting to more unpredictable situations by making investments in human capital, digitalization and green energy. Although with this in place, economies can withstand unexpected future crises, he expressed sadness that policies do not follow these concepts.
Emmanuel Otori has over 10 years of experience working with 100 start-ups and SMEs across Nigeria. He has worked on the Growth and Employment (GEM) Project of the World Bank, GiZ, and Consulted for businesses at the Abuja Enterprise Agency, Novustack, Splitspot and NITDA. He is the Chief Executive Officer at Abuja Data School.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange further chalked up 0.32 per cent on Wednesday, May 20, spurred by price appreciation in 11 Plc, and Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS) Plc.
11 Plc, which used to be known as Mobil, added N22.11 to sell at N243.21 per unit compared with the previous day’s N221.10 per unit, and CSCS Plc gained N1.19 to trade at N71.81 per share versus Tuesday’s N70.62 per share.
The growth posted by the duo raised the market capitalisation by N8.04 billion to N2.495 trillion from N2.487 trillion, and lifted the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 13.44 points to 4,171.19 points from 4,157.75 points.
Yesterday, there were two price losers, led by Nipco Plc, which shed N22.60 to close at N287.00 per unit compared with the preceding day’s N309.60 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco, which lost 84 Kobo to sell for N150.95 per share, in contrast to the N151.79 per share it was traded a day earlier.
The volume of trades recorded at midweek dipped by 99.9 per cent to 2.3 million units from 1.9 billion units, the value of transactions fell by 93.7 per cent to N334.2 million from the preceding session’s N5.3 billion, and the number of deals went down by 43.3 per cent to 34 deals from 60 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 60.9 million units exchanged for N4.1 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira broke its weakening streak in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Wednesday, May 20, after it appreciated against the US Dollar by 53 Kobo or 0.04 per cent to trade at N1,373.34/$1, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing rate of N1,373.87/$1.
The domestic currency also improved its value against the Euro in the official FX market during the midweek session by N1.99 to close at N1,592.53/€1 compared with Tuesday’s closing value of N1,594.52/€1, but depreciated against the Pound Sterling at the official FX market during the midweek session by 39 Kobo to trade at N1,840.00/£1 versus the previous day’s value of N1,839.61/£1.
Data from GTBank FX bench showed that the Naira appreciated against the Dollar yesterday by N2 to sell at N1,379/$1 versus N1,381/$1, but closed flat in the parallel market at N1,390/$1.
The performance of the local currency in the different segments of the forex market comes as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) insisted that it is no longer aggressively intervening in the foreign exchange market to defend the Naira, as it held interest rate steady despite happenings in the global economy.
Governor of the apex bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, disclosed after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja on Wednesday that the structure of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market has changed significantly under the ongoing reforms, adding that increased market liquidity has reduced the need for heavy intervention by the CBN.
Currency traders and investors are expected to continue monitoring CBN policy direction, foreign portfolio inflows, crude oil earnings, and external reserve performance as key indicators influencing the naira’s trajectory in the coming months.
According to Mr Cardoso, the CBN will continue with its current policy direction to sustain the fight against inflation and stabilise the exchange rate.
He described exchange rate stability as the centrepiece of the apex bank’s policy toolkit and stressed the need for stronger collaboration between monetary and fiscal authorities to reduce inflationary pressures in the economy.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was in green on Wednesday as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is delaying the launch of a recent wave of “novel ETFs,” including those that offer prediction-market style event contracts, to consider the implications of introducing the new products.
Prediction markets have become one of crypto’s hottest use cases over the past 18 months and now consistently record more than $15 billion in monthly trading volume across markets spanning from sports and elections to financial results and cultural events.
Dogecoin (DOGE) appreciated by 2.2 per cent to $0.1058, Solana (SOL) grew by 1.99 per cent to $86.42, Binance Coin (BNB) jumped 1.6 per cent to $652.01, TRON (TRX) rose by 1.4 per cent to $0.3604, Bitcoin (BTC) improved by 0.8 per cent to $77,769.62, Ethereum (ETH) soared by 0.5 per cent to $2,135.25, and Ripple (XRP) gained 0.5 per cent to quote at $1.37.
However, Cardano (ADA) dropped 0.4 per cent to trade at $0.2490, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bears quickly took control of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Wednesday, plunging the stock trading platform by 1.02 per cent after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left the benchmark interest rate at 26.50 per cent.
The bourse sank at midweek as BUA Cement led the losers’ chart, after closing lower by 10.00 per cent to N414.00. CAP lost 9.99 per cent to trade at N210.35, eTranzact shrank by 7.03 per cent to N17.20, International Breweries depreciated by 5.38 per cent to N12.30, and Deap Capital crashed by 4.92 per cent to N5.80.
On the flip side, Zichis led the gainers’ chart after it chalked up 9.99 per cent to sell for N32.04, ABC Transport rose by 9.99 per cent to N8.26, Japaul expanded by 9.95 per cent to N4.09, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank grew by 9.92 per cent to N4.21, and FTN Cocoa soared by 9.91 per cent to N10.76.
Business Post observed that despite the loss, investor sentiment remained bullish, as Customs Street finished yesterday with 42 price gainers and 24 price losers, indicating a positive market breadth index.
The insurance counter was the only riser at midweek, closing higher by 0.80 per cent due to bargain-hunting in the space.
However, profit-taking in the other sectors was responsible for the contraction recorded by the stock market on Wednesday.
The industrial goods segment lost 3.84 per cent, the consumer goods sector depreciated by 0.45 per cent, the banking index slumped by 0.31 per cent, and the energy industry dropped 0.10 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) moderated by 2,573.05 points to 249,062.37 points from 251,635.42 points, and the market capitalisation depleted by N1.619 trillion to N159.661 trillion from N161.280 trillion.
A look at the activity chart showed that 600.2 million shares worth N32.7 billion exchanged hands in 58,958 deals on Wednesday compared with the 704.0 million shares valued at N32.2 billion transacted in 64,539 deals on Tuesday, implying a jump in the trading value by 1.55 per cent, and a shortfall in the trading volume and number of deals by 14.74 per cent, and 8.65 per cent, respectively.
Access Holdings led the activity chart with a turnover of 56.0 million units valued at N1.4 billion, Japaul transacted 49.9 million units worth N202.9 million, Zenith Bank traded 36.7 million units for N4.8 billion, Sterling Holdings sold 25.9 million units valued at N200.8 million, and Fidelity Bank exchanged 21.7 million units worth N499.6 million.
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