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Economy

2023 Economic Outlook For Nigeria

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Economic Outlook

By Emmanuel Otori

In conjunction with the IMF/World Bank annual meetings, forecasts released at the July World Economic Outlook in 2022 projected Nigeria’s inflation to fall to 17% and an increase in its Gross Domestic Product GDP by 3.4% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. Reprojected in October’s World Economic Outlook, Nigeria’s GDP is projected to drop to 3.2% in 2023, with a difference of 0.2% in the July 2022 projection. The IMF estimates that by 2023, Nigeria’s inflation will have decreased to 17% from a projected 19%.

According to the African Development Bank Group (AFDB), growth will slow, averaging 3.2% from 2022 to 2023, because of the continued low oil production and rising insecurity. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, rising food, gas, and diesel costs, and continuous supply disruptions are all anticipated to play a part in keeping inflation high in 2022 at 16.9% and above pre-pandemic levels in 2023.

While oil exports are anticipated to slightly increase and capital inflows to rebound, an expected positive oil price shock on exports may be substantially outweighed by a poor output effect caused by lower oil production, which is fueled by inadequate infrastructure and increased insecurity.

The anticipated 0.1% of GDP marginal current account surplus in 2022 could turn into a 0.2% deficit in 2023. With greater revenue collection, the budget deficit will typically drop to 4.5% of GDP. Furthermore, it is predicted that by 2024, the government debt is expected to reach 40% of GDP due to new borrowing.

From the IMF’s Research Department, Daniel Leigh, the Divisional Chief indicated that the recent increase in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), as well as the global fall in the price of crude oil and food, are the foundations for the reduced inflation rate forecasts for Nigeria. However, the IMF’s Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of Research, provided guidance to the CBN and its international counterparts on the selection of monetary policy instruments necessary to reduce inflation.

The IMF’s lower growth rate forecast for the global economy in 2023 was consistent with predictions for Nigeria’s GDP growth. Projections on the global economic growth for 2022 were retained at 3.2%, whereas they are projected to decrease to 2.7% in 2023. In a statement describing why it anticipates slower global growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided an explanation:

“The world economy continues to face steep challenges, shaped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis caused by persistent and broadening inflation pressures, and the slowdown in China…”

Curbing Economic Crisis

According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, fiscal policy should not conflict with the efforts of the monetary authorities because, otherwise, it will only prolong the existing inflation leading to a severe financial crisis. Fiscal policy should also focus on the most vulnerable groups for a short-term period. In addition, fiscal policy can aid economies in adjusting to more unpredictable situations by making investments in human capital, digitalization and green energy. Although with this in place, economies can withstand unexpected future crises, he expressed sadness that policies do not follow these concepts.

Emmanuel Otori has over 10 years of experience working with 100 start-ups and SMEs across Nigeria. He has worked on the Growth and Employment (GEM) Project of the World Bank, GiZ, and Consulted for businesses at the Abuja Enterprise Agency, Novustack, Splitspot and NITDA. He is the Chief Executive Officer at Abuja Data School.

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Economy

Lokpobiri Hails Petroleum Reforms Amid Surge in Investments

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petroleum products

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Mr Heineken Lokpobiri, has said ongoing reforms and strategic policy implementation in Nigeria’s petroleum sector are driving significant investments and strengthening the country’s position as a leading energy destination in Africa.

Mr Lokpobiri stated this at the Management Retreat of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, where he stressed the need for improved institutional performance and accountability to sustain growth in the sector.

According to the Minister, the federal government has deliberately pursued far-reaching reforms aimed at creating a stable and investor-friendly environment capable of attracting local and foreign capital into the oil and gas industry.

“From far-reaching institutional reforms to the effective implementation of strategic policies, we have remained committed to carrying all stakeholders along, fostering a conducive environment for investments to flourish,” Mr Lokpobiri said.

“As a result, our petroleum sector has witnessed significant investments that continue to strengthen Nigeria’s position as a leading energy destination.”

The Minister noted that the gains recorded in the sector were the product of collective efforts across the Ministry and its agencies, commending staff for their dedication and professionalism.

“The Management Retreat of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources provided an important platform to reiterate that these accomplishments would not have been possible without the collective dedication, professionalism and teamwork of every staff member across the Ministry and its agencies,” he stated.

Mr Lokpobiri said the retreat, themed Driving Institutional Performance and Accountability in the Petroleum Sector for Sustainable National Development, underscored the importance of continuous improvement in service delivery and operational efficiency.

Drawing lessons from the theme, he urged officials of the Ministry and regulatory agencies to intensify efforts toward enhancing institutional effectiveness and strengthening governance frameworks.

“I encouraged that we must redouble our efforts, continuously improve the quality of our services, and strengthen institutional performance,” he said.

The Minister further emphasised the continued relevance of fossil fuels in the global energy mix, stressing that Nigeria must leverage its hydrocarbon resources to drive economic growth while ensuring citizens benefit from ongoing reforms.

“With fossil fuel as the dominant source of energy, we must ensure that Nigerians experience the benefits of our progress and that Nigeria remains the preferred investment destination in Africa and a globally competitive hub for energy investments,” Mr Lokpobiri added.

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Economy

Universal Insurance Extends N3.2bn Rights Issue to June 22

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Universal Insurance shares

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The N3.2 billion rights issue of Universal Insurance Plc has been extended by almost two weeks after securing regulatory approval.

The exercise was earlier scheduled to close on June 10, 2026, but will now close on Monday, June 22, 2026.

The extension was granted by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after a request from the underwriting organisation.

In the rights issue, Universal Insurance is offering to shareholders 2,666,666,667 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N1.20 per share on the basis of one new ordinary share for every existing six ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Monday, March 30, 2026.

Subscription for the acquisition of the company’s extra shares opened on Wednesday, May 13, 2026.

The extension gives investors more time to increase their stake in the insurance firm, which intends to use proceeds from the exercise to boost its capital base, as mandated by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM).

Insurance companies operating in Nigeria have been given till July 31, 2026, to shore up their capital base or pack up. Operators can also explore a merger if they wish.

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Economy

4.964 billion Shares Worth N207.5bn Exchange Hands in 235,966 deals in Four Days

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nigerian shares

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited opened its doors to market participants in four days last week as a result of a public holiday observed on Friday, June 12, for 2026 Democracy Day in the country.

In the week, investors bought and sold 4.964 billion shares worth N207.521 billion in 235,966 deals, as against the 3.966 billion shares valued at N175.659 billion that exchanged hands in 343,587 deals a week earlier.

Analysis showed that the financial services industry led the activity chart with 4.116 billion shares valued at N84.607 billion in 96,165 deals, contributing 82.92 per cent and 40.77 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The services sector transacted 232.479 million shares worth N4.955 billion in 17,614 deals, while the industrial goods segment exchanged 144.988 million shares worth N39.077 billion in 24,775 deals.

Sterling Holdings, FCMB, and Access Holdings were the most traded stocks with 2.883 billion units sold for N36.188 billion in 15,533 deals, accounting for 58.09 per cent and 17.44 per cent of the total trading volume and value, respectively.

A total of 40 equities appreciated in the week versus 23 equities in the previous week, 53 equities depreciated versus 65 equities a week earlier, and 53 equities remained unchanged versus 58 equities in the preceding week.

ABC Transport was the best-performing equity for the week after it gained 25.60 per cent to trade at N7.80, Consolidated Hallmark appreciated by 23.13 per cent to N8.25, Abbey Mortgage Bank rose by 21.93 per cent to N11.40, Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank grew by 20.32 per cent to N11.25, and Austin Laz soared by 15.16 per cent to N4.33.

The worst-performing equity last week was Fidson Healthcare because of its 25.86 per cent loss, closing at N101.20. Neimeth declined by 19.14 per cent to N8.55, Union Homes REIT shed 17.36 per cent to close at N70.00, SUNU Assurances slipped by 11.38 per cent to N3.97, and Unilever Nigeria dropped 10.26 per cent to trade at N140.00.

As for the index movement, the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation chalked up 0.88 per cent each to settle at 244,738.74 points and N156.970 trillion, respectively.

Similarly, all other indices finished higher apart from the pension, AFR Bank Value, MERI Growth, MERI Value, consumer goods, Lotus II, industrial goods, sovereign bond and commodity indices, which fell by 0.03 per cent, 1.20 per cent, 0.21 per cent, 1.61 per cent, 0.54 per cent, 0.51 per cent, 1.00 per cent, 2.04 per cent and 0.34 per cent, respectively.

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