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Economy

A Volatile Week Ahead for Financial Markets?

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Financial Markets

By Lukman Otunuga

Stocks in Asia traded cautiously on Tuesday, following a negative close on Wall Street overnight as growth concerns, inflation worries and geopolitical tensions hit risk sentiment.

European markets opened lower this morning due to the deepening crisis in Ukraine, with the caution likely to find its way back to US markets this afternoon.

In the currency space, the almighty dollar rose to a fresh two-year high during early trade, supported by rising treasury yields and Fed hike bets. Gold slipped after almost kissing $2000 in the previous session, while oil benchmarks steadied after jumping on Monday.

Despite the public holiday in most of Europe yesterday, this is shaping up to be another volatile and eventful week for global markets. The latest comments from the World Bank have added to the cocktail of caution that will most likely influence sentiment over the next few sessions.

The bank cut its global growth forecast for 2022 by nearly a full percentage point to 3.2% from its previous estimate of 4.1%, thanks to the war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, and the lingering effects of Covid-19.

Later today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will release its updated global economic outlook with markets expecting a downgrade for growth this year. Such a development may hit investor confidence, sweetening appetite for safe-haven assets.

On the earnings front, Johnson & Johnson and insurance company, Travellers will report their latest results before the opening bell. Streaming giant Netflix will release its earnings after the market close. Traders will also focus on speeches from financial heavyweights Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde later this week.

Dollar flexes muscles across the FX space

The dollar tightened its grip on its throne this morning by rising to a fresh two-year high as investors braced for more aggressive U.S rate hikes. Markets have fully priced in a 50bp rate hike at the Fed’s May meeting, with the odds of another half-point rate hike in June very high.

Given how the dollar has appreciated against every single G10 currency this month, bulls are certainly in a position of power to drive prices higher.

When considering how the week ahead will be filled with more speeches from Fed officials, this could fuel upside gains if they all sing a hawkish tune. Indeed, we heard from arch-hawk Bullard overnight who signalled an openness to a 75bp hike. The dollar index (DXY) has the potential to challenge 103.00 if a solid daily close above 101.00 is secured.

Commodity spotlight: Gold

After rallying within a hair’s length of $2000 in the previous session, gold is trading back around $1974 as of writing. With numerous competing themes likely to influence market sentiment this week, gold may find itself pulled and tugged by conflicting forces.

Heightened geopolitical risks and global growth concerns could trigger risk aversion, sending investors rushing towards gold’s safe embrace. However, an appreciating dollar, rising treasury yields, and Fed hike expectations may create multiple obstacles down the road.

Looking at the technical picture, gold has the potential to trend higher, but prices seem to be forming another range. Support can be found at around $1960 and resistance at $2000. A move back below $1960 could trigger a selloff towards $1920. Alternatively, a solid breakout above $2000 may open the doors towards $2009, $2015, and $2050, respectively.

Lukman Otunuga is a Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Cuts PMS Gantry Price by N50 to N1,125 Per Litre

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Dangote refinery petrol

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, has been cut down by N50 to N1,125 per litre from N1,175 per litre by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

The refinery confirmed this development via a statement on Thursday to newsmen.

Dangote Refinery described this downward review of the product’s price as a reflection of its ongoing commitment to ensuring price stability, improving affordability, and supporting Nigeria’s energy security objectives.

It further said it underscores its responsiveness to prevailing market conditions and its efforts to pass on cost efficiencies to downstream partners and consumers.

In the statement, the company said it remains focused on its broader mission of contributing to economic growth, enhancing fuel availability, and fostering a more competitive and sustainable petroleum sector in Nigeria.

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Economy

Crude Oil Jumps Over 2% After Vessel Hit Near Strait of Hormuz

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Cawthorne crude oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices rose more than 2 per cent on Thursday after a cargo vessel was hit ‌by an unknown projectile near Oman, putting an evacuation effort for ships from the key Strait of Hormuz on hold.

Brent futures gained $1.52 or 2.1 per cent to ​settle at $75.26 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude chalked up $1.58 or 2.3 per cent to trade at $71.92 per barrel.

The flow of oil and gas has been disrupted since the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran at the end of February, but the agreement between the US and Iran to end the war has ​allowed the resumption of traffic through the crucial strait.

The United Nations International Maritime Organisation on Thursday paused its effort ​to shepherd ships and seafarers through the strait after the cargo ship reported a suspected attack. This reawakened concerns about the worldwide flow of oil.

Reuters reported that Iran fired on the cargo ship ​as it attempted to pass through the strait after Iranian authorities said the security of vessels passing outside designated Hormuz routes is not guaranteed.

Previously, crude shipments through the strait rose to their highest since the start of the war on Wednesday. Before the war, about 20 per cent of world oil supplies passed through the ​Strait, located between Iran and Oman.

Key fuel oil producers Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Oman have moved to increase shipments from ports outside the Persian Gulf. Middle Eastern fuel oil exports are set to jump by 20 per cent from May to about 508,000 barrels per day in June.

US ‌Secretary of ⁠State Marco Rubio told Gulf allies on Thursday that any deal with Iran would take their interests into account, as he wrapped up a Middle East trip aimed at winning over regional partners with deep reservations about the preliminary accord.

The US and the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) said a lasting peace would mean addressing Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones and support for proxy groups. However, the US also threatened that if Iran threatens or blocks ships ​in the strait, there will be a “problem.”

The ​Wall Street Journal reported that Iran estimates charging for security, safety and environmental services in the strait, which would bring ​in $40 billion a year ⁠for the states involved.

In Venezuela, thousands were feared dead ⁠after two ​powerful earthquakes affected the capital, Caracas. The quakes could slow the ​increase in Venezuelan oil exports expected by US President Donald Trump’s administration after it captured Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in January.

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Economy

Distributors Kick Against Plans by Lagos to Tackle Egg Glut

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egg glut

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Eggs Sellers and Distributors Association of Nigeria (ESDAN) has kicked against the proposed plan involving the production of egg powder to tackle the glut of eggs.

The National President of ESDAN, Mrs Olaide Graham, made the position clear in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) this week.

Egg glut occurs when egg production exceeds consumer demand, resulting in a surplus that often forces farmers to sell at reduced prices to avoid spoilage.

The Lagos State Government recently announced plans to establish an egg powder processing facility as part of efforts to address seasonal egg glut in the poultry sector.

Mrs Graham described the initiative as a welcome development but maintained that it would not address the fundamental challenges facing the industry.

“The establishment of an egg powder factory in Lagos to address the egg glut situation will have a positive impact if it is properly implemented and the product meets market standards.

“It could help reduce waste and, to some extent, stabilise prices temporarily.

“However, egg powder may not be widely accepted as a substitute for fresh eggs in this part of the country because of differences in taste, texture and consumer perception.

“Many consumers still regard fresh eggs as more nutritious,” she said.

According to her, the major issue is identifying and addressing the root causes of the egg glut rather than focusing solely on processing surplus eggs.

“We have a population of over 200 million people. Why should there be an egg glut?

“We need to examine what farmers, distributors and other stakeholders are not getting right and provide the necessary support.

“Egg powder is not the cure for egg glut in Nigeria. Stakeholders should come together to identify sustainable solutions,” she said.

Mrs Graham noted that egg powder could serve as a raw material for the production of other goods, but should not be viewed as a long-term remedy for the challenge.

She emphasised the need for improved distribution systems across the egg value chain.

“Effective distribution can go a long way in addressing the problem.

“We should remember that Lagos distributes not only eggs produced within the state but also eggs brought in from other parts of the country.

“In every challenge, there is always a solution, but egg powder is not the major solution to egg glut,” she said.

The ESDAN president also dismissed concerns that egg distributors could be negatively affected by the proposed factory.

“Distributors have nothing to fear because Nigerians are accustomed to consuming fresh eggs.

“The number of consumers who will continue to prefer fresh eggs will still be higher.

“Even if egg powder production affects access to fresh eggs, there will still be ways to address that challenge.“If the purpose of producing egg powder is to reduce glut, then that is why distributors have joined the conversation,” she said, according to the news agency.

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