Economy
Afreximbank’s Gamble on Dangote Refinery Paid Off—Elombi
By Adedapo Adesanya
The President of the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), Mr George Elombi, said the lender’s gamble on the soon-to-be expanded 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery has paid off amid rising energy needs following the United States and Israel’s war on Iran.
Speaking recently on the sidelines of last Monday’s formal signing event to host the bank’s Intra-African Trade Fair 2027 in Lagos, a continental commerce event designed to boost trade across Africa, Mr Elombi said the fears that its involvement in the $20 billion infrastructure “could break Afreximbank” have proven to be a win for the company and the continent.
The $20 billion Dangote Refinery, which was largely financed by Afreximbank, has been described as a transformative project for Nigeria’s energy landscape. It has disrupted local markets as well as foreign markets.
In October 2025, Mr Elombi revealed in Cairo that Mr Aliko Dangote was seeking an additional $5 billion to expand his refinery in Lagos. This came after Afreximbank announced a $1.35 billion facility for Dangote Industries Limited as part of a $4 billion syndicated financing deal to refinance the construction of the complex, the largest single-train refinery in the world, in August. The bank contributed the largest share.
Mr Elombi, who took over the presidency of the lender in October, stated at the time that Mr Aliko Dangote had personally disclosed the plan earlier and assured the bank would explore all possible financing options.
In his latest comment regarding the relationship, he said, “We looked around, and we said, if we didn’t do it, then who else was going to come and take the risk later. Still, the risk is a gamble, but on this occasion we were lucky because it turned out to be a very positive gamble.”
“You gamble on someone like Mr Aliko Dangote, every type of gamble will be on the winning side. So we went along with the gamble, and you can see what the impact is; it is that he can now refine domestically and sell at the domestic rate. We can now use Dangote as an instrument for dealing with our refined product challenges across the Gulf of Guinea and further in some countries,” he added.
He described the refinery as “a development instrument” for African countries in light of the disruptions, saying “he (Dangote) has to use it for that purpose and we will be using it all the way down the Atlantic Coast, Namibia, Botswana, where we intend to put storage facilities so that when crises happens like this, long as is further away from the African coast.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria received its first credit rating upgrade since 2012 from S&P Global Ratings, driven by improved oil market conditions and the country’s growing ability to refine and export crude locally.
The credit ratings agency upgraded the country’s rating by one notch to B, five levels below investment grade, according to a statement on Friday.
It raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Nigeria to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘ and affirmed its ‘B’ short-term ratings. It also raised its long- and short-term Nigeria national scale ratings on the sovereign to ‘ngA+/ngA-1’ from ‘ngBBB+/ngA-2’.
S&P also cited Nigeria’s decision to liberalise the exchange rate as crucial to the development, and changed the outlook to stable.
The decision also comes as the federal government ruled out the reintroduction of subsidies on refined petroleum products, in order to avoid a return to larger budgetary deficits and drains on foreign currency (FX) liquidity.
S&P projected the general government deficit will widen to over 4 per cent of GDP on average during 2026 and 2027, a year of a general election.
It added that the implementation of reforms to broaden the tax base from very narrow levels is underpinning a steady decline in Nigeria’s debt-to-revenue ratio to 338 per cent in 2026 versus 500 per cent in 2023.
The agency said it could raise ratings over the next two years if fiscal outcomes improve significantly, either due to fiscal consolidation or structurally higher revenue, resulting in lower debt service costs.
It, however, warned that it could also lower the ratings if the implementation of Nigeria’s reform programme, particularly the series of critical steps taken to liberalise the exchange rate in 2023, reverses.
On the oil production forecast, S&P expects 2026 production to average approximately 1.66 million barrels per day, including condensates.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigerian maritime sector may soon witness the inflow of $600 million in investment from APM Terminals.
On the sidelines of the ongoing Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Rwanda, the Regional President of APM Terminals for Africa-Europe, Mr Igor van den Essen, informed President Bola Tinubu that his company was interested in deepening its investment in Nigeria.
According to a statement issued by the Special Adviser to the President of Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the investment would be deployed in Apapa port modernisation, logistics infrastructure, and long-term private-sector investment in Nigeria’s maritime sector.
President Tinubu welcomed the investments, emphasising that Nigeria is repositioning itself for greater competitiveness through ongoing economic reforms and infrastructure modernisation.
He said the country is determined to move beyond structural bottlenecks and outdated systems, stressing the need for advanced technology, faster cargo processing, and improved operational efficiency across the nation’s ports.
He emphasised that Nigeria possesses the market scale, talent base, and economic potential to support globally competitive maritime and logistics infrastructure investments and called on other investors to take advantage of Nigeria’s reform outcomes.
Earlier, Mr Igor van den Essen lauded President Tinubu’s reform agenda and policy direction, which had strengthened investor confidence and created renewed momentum for long-term infrastructure investments.
He described Nigeria as a strategic stronghold within its African operations, referencing over 20 years of collaboration and substantial existing investments in the country’s port ecosystem.
He reaffirmed his company’s commitment to expanding investments in Nigeria and disclosed plans to support the development of world-class terminal infrastructure and technology-driven port operations.
He also commended Mr Tinubu for establishing the National Single Window (NSW), which has streamlined trade procedures, improved Customs coordination, and reduced delays in cargo clearance.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a new lawsuit against the federal government over the fuel import licences issued to marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Last week, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) issued licences to six marketers for the importation of 720,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol.
The marketers are NIPCO, AA Rano, Matrix, Shafa, Pinnacle, and Bono. The development comes amid claims by the NMDPRA that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery now supplies over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption.
Dangote said in the filing that the licences issued undermine its operations and contravene the law, which it argues allows imports only when domestic supply falls short.
Named in the suit against the country is the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi. The federal government can only be sued via his office.
The case signals renewed tensions almost a year after Dangote withdrew an earlier lawsuit challenging similar licences. That case sought to nullify import permits issued to the NNPC and several traders.
The new filing asks the Federal High Court in Lagos to set aside import permits issued or renewed by the NMDPRA, arguing they breach an earlier order to maintain the status quo.
Dangote ended the earlier lawsuit in July 2025 without explanation, leaving unresolved questions over competition and supply in one of Africa’s largest fuel markets.
Nigeria has long relied on petrol imports due to underperforming state refineries. However, Dangote’s 650,000 barrels per day capacity refinery was touted to end that dependence.
Despite the presence of the facility, imports have continued to cover supply gaps as the refinery ramps up output.
The NMDPRA did not issue a single import licence in the first quarter of 2026 because the Dangote refinery had the capacity to meet Nigeria’s petrol demand.
Business Post gathered that only upon intervention by President Bola Tinubu were the licenses granted for the second quarter by the NMDPRA.
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