Economy
Analysts Foresee Naira Depreciation This Week
By Dipo Olowookere
There are strong indications that the Naira will perform badly against the United States Dollar at the domestic foreign exchange (forex) market this week.
This is because there are expectations that the local currency would be weakened in the week on the back of further decreasing external reserves of the country.
According to analysts at Cowry Asset, “In the new week, we expect depreciation of the Naira against the USD across the market segments amid decreasing external reserves.”
Business Post observed that the foreign reserves of Nigeria have been depleting lately and there are strong possibilities that the reserves could drop to the $42 billion region in the week.
As at Thursday, September 5, 2019, what was left in the reserves was $43.1 billion as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued to defend the Naira to stay within N360/$ at the various market segments as the price of crude oil continue to move like a wave, somethings going below the $60 per barrel benchmark in the 2019 budget.
According to Cowry Asset, last week, the local currency traded flat at most forex market windows like the Bureau De Change (BDC) and the parallel (black) markets, where it closed at N358.00/$ and N360.00/$ respectively.
Similarly, the Naira was unchanged against the US Dollar to close at N358.04/$ at the interbank segment amid weekly injections of $210 million by CBN into the market via the Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS).
At the intervention, the apex bank pumped $100 million into the Wholesale SMIS, $55 million into the Small and Medium Scale Enterprises and another $55 million for invisibles.
However, at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window of the market, Naira appreciated against the Dollar by 0.23 percent to close at N362.08/$.
Meanwhile, the local currency appreciated against the Dollar for most of the foreign exchange forward contracts like the spot rate, one month, 2 months and 6 months by 0.17 percent, 0.03 percent, 0.25 percent and 0.17 percent to close at N306.90/$, N365.56/$, N369.04/$ and N384.46/$ respectively.
However, the Naira depreciated against the Dollar on the 3 months and 12 months on the contracts like by 0.01 percent and 0.69 percent to close at N307.60/$ and N411.91/$ respectively.
Economy
Petrol Station Owners Lament N75 Price Difference Between PH, Dangote Refineries
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has said the price of Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol, being sold by the old Port Harcourt Refinery, which resumed production on Tuesday, is N75 per litre higher than that sold by the Dangote Refinery.
This was revealed by the association’s Public Relations Officer, Mr Joseph Obele, during the official reopening ceremony of the refinery, which is now operating at a capacity of 60,000 barrels per day.
Business Post reports that the lifting price of Dangote’s petrol product is N990 per litre. However, the refinery announced a N20 discount on Sunday, which is only available to marketers buying a minimum of 2 million litres of the fuel.
Mr Obele, a former chairman of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) at the Port Harcourt Deport who initially applauded the federal government for revitalising the old refinery, expressed concern over the pricing disparity between petrol supplied by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited and the Dangote Refinery.
According to him, while Dangote Refinery sells petrol to marketers at N970 per litre, NNPC’s price stands at N1,045, a difference of N75 per litre.
He said the N75 price differential is a steep margin for businesses, particularly for an industry where profitability hinges on competitive pricing.
However, Mr Obele described the refinery’s restoration as a significant step in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products.
He revealed that the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Mr Mele Kyari, has promised to address the issue and harmonise prices to mitigate the impact on marketers and consumers.
The reopening of the Port Harcourt Refinery I is expected to enhance local production capacity and reduce reliance on imports, a move welcomed by stakeholders across the sector.
However, concerns over pricing disparities underscore the need for continuous reforms to stabilise the downstream sector of the petroleum industry.
The reopening has also sparked anticipation for the rehabilitation of other state-owned refineries including the second refinery in Port Harcourt as well as the Warri and Kaduna structures.
Economy
Cardoso Targets Ease in Inflation, FX Pressures By Q1 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, has said the lender’s efforts to tame inflation and pressures on the foreign exchange market will begin to yield results by the first quarter of 2025.
Mr Cardoso spoke during a press conference in Abuja to announce the outcomes of the two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) for the sixth time by 25 basis points to 27.50 per cent.
He said the apex bank is using every possible strategy to tame inflation with a firm assurance that ongoing monetary tightening measures, which it has done six times alone this year, will have a favourable outcome.
The CBN rationalised that the 25 basis points hike is targeted at addressing rising inflation, which stood at 33.88 per cent as of October 2024.
“The central bank is resolute and committed to continuing to fight the war against inflation and there is no going back on that.
“We are going to deploy everything in our arsenal to ensure that we are able to tame it. And of course, this entails the return to orthodox monetary policies,” Cardoso stated amid agitations of rising interest rates on the economy,” the central banker said.
According to him, the Committee was unanimous in its decision to further tighten policy, though members took a decision to retain the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points; Cash Reserve Ratio of Deposit Money Banks at 50 per cent and Merchant Banks at 16 per cent; as well as the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent.
He also said the MPC was particularly concerned that all inflationary measures also inched up on a month-on-month basis, suggesting the persistence of price pressures, with attendant adverse impacts on the income and welfare of citizens.
Despite this, Mr Cardoso’s tone was optimistic, forecasting that current measures would be able to tame prices in coming months due to lag effect.
“It is important for people to understand that there is a time lag between when you implement policies and when they have an impact. That time lag can be anything up from six to nine months to even a year. Our own perspective is that we expect to see greater results in the first quarter of 2025.”
He said in addition, that the apex bank is working very assiduously with some of the relevant agencies to ensure that structural impediments to growth are handled appropriately.
“We are ensuring that we are on top of the game and that the foreign exchange market operates at its most optimal manner to reflect the true value of the currency, and of course, we have price discovery.”
Economy
Tinubu Orders Prompt Reactivation of Warri, Kaduna Refineries
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has been directed to quickly reactivate the second unit of the Port Harcourt Refinery as well as the refineries in Warri and Kaduna.
This directive was given by President Bola Tinubu via a statement issued on Tuesday by his Special Adviser of Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga.
Mr Tinubu issued this order in reaction to the commencement of crude oil processing by the Port Harcourt refinery in Rivers State yesterday.
The facility began official loading of petroleum products, including the premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, yesterday after gulping about $1.5 billion for rehabilitation.
This process started in 2021 under the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, who his successor praised for “initiating the comprehensive rehabilitation of all our refineries.”
In the statement yesterday, the President noted that the reactivation of the remaining refineries would “significantly enhance domestic production capacity alongside the contributions of privately-owned refineries and make our country a major energy hub, with the gas sector also enjoying unprecedented attention by the administration.”
He affirmed his “administration’s determination to repair the nation’s refineries, aiming to eradicate the disheartening perception of Nigeria as a major crude oil producer that lacks the ability to refine its own resources for domestic consumption.”
Highlighting the values of patience, integrity, and accountability in the rebuilding of the nation’s infrastructure, President Tinubu called upon individuals, institutions, and citizens entrusted with responsibilities to maintain focus and uphold trust in their service to the nation.
“In alignment with the Renewed Hope Agenda focused on shared economic prosperity for all, the President reaffirms his administration’s commitment to achieving energy sufficiency, enhancing energy security, and boosting export capacity for Nigeria,” the statement said.
Mr Tinubu used the opportunity to laud the NNPC under the leadership of Mr Mele Kyari for his “unwavering dedication and commitment” in overcoming challenges to achieve this milestone.
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