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Economy

Opportunities in a Bear Market – Two Stocks to Watch

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consumer goods stocks

By FSDH Research

The Nigerian equity market, as measured by the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI), depreciated by 12.42 percent as at the end of August 2019.

Our analysis of the performance of the equity market so far in 2019 shows that the Index recorded the highest depreciation of 7.5 percent in July.

FSDH Research notes that the declining crude oil price and fear of a possible global recession had negative impacts on the equity market.

Despite the current bearish trend in the market, we spot opportunities in the equity market. The two stocks we highlight here are: Zenith Bank and GTBank. Each has a history of good performance and good dividend payment; we believe the short-to-medium term outlook of these stocks are good. Therefore, investors should position in them as their share prices have recently dropped significantly.

Zenith Bank and GTBank are both strong players in the Nigerian banking sector. They both have footprints among the top-quality corporate customers. Both banks have consistent records of good asset quality and earnings.

They focus on low cost deposits from retail customers, therefore their cost of funds are low. This enables them to have good interest margin to drive profitability. They have remained the most profitable banks by absolute profit (Profit Before Tax and Profit After Tax).

The two banks have invested considerably in technology and deploy this service to existing customers and attract new ones. This has also generated a lot of non-interest income for them. Both banks operate a commercial banking licence with international focus.

FSDH Research’s analysis shows that Zenith Bank recorded improvements in both the top-line and bottom-line in Half Year (HY1) 2019 over the corresponding period of last year. The major drivers of the performance are an increase in non-interest income and its cost optimization strategy.

Although the Gross Earnings of GTBank dropped marginally in HY1 2019, it managed to record improved performance in profitability.

We attribute the drop in the gross earning to the decrease in interest income due to a drop in interest rate during the period. The growth in non-interest income and low interest expenses were mainly responsible for the growth in profitability

Our analysis of the latest results shows that GTBank is more efficient than Zenith Bank. Despite that, Zenith Bank is one of the most efficient banks in Nigeria. The efficiency ratio shows that Zenith Bank recorded the following as at HY1 2019; Net Interest Margin 9 percent; Profit Before Tax (PBT) Margin 34 percent; Profit After Tax (PAT) Margin 27 percent; Return on Equity (ROE) 11 percent (annualised to 22 percent) and cost–to–income ratio 53 percent.

GTBank however, recorded Net Interest Margin 10 percent; PBT Margin 52 percent; PAT Margin 45 percent; ROE 16 percent (annualised to 32 percent) and cost–to–income ratio 37.6 percent.

The Trailing Earning Per Share (EPS) for both banks stood at N6.39 as at HY1 2019. The Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio for Zenith Bank stood at 5.3 percent while that of GTBank stood at 6.8 percent and they are among the lowest in the banking industry.

Zenith Bank and GTBank have liquid balance sheets with well-diversified earning assets and sources of funding. Zenith Bank’s total assets as at HY1 2019 stood at N5.9 trillion while GTBank’s total asset stood at N3.6 trillion. Both banks’ assets are largely funded by customers’ deposits, with a strong capital base providing additional buffer for further growth. Loans and advances, and investment in Treasury Bills constitute the bulk of the total assets.

While Zenith Bank may need to create an additional N484 billion in loan assets to enable it meet the new regulatory requirement of minimum loans to deposits ratio of 60 percent, GTBank may need to create additional loan assets of N178 billion.

We recommend that investors with a long-term investment horizon take position in these two stocks at the current prices, which we believe offer significant upside potentials. Although recent global developments may have a short-term negative impact on the performance of the equity market, long-term investors may benefit from the long-term growth that the equity market offers.

The two companies usually give interim and final dividends, therefore, they are good stocks to be included in an asset manager’s portfolio.

The performance of stock prices of Zenith Bank and GTBank have also outperformed that of the NSE ASI in the last five years.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

4.964 billion Shares Worth N207.5bn Exchange Hands in 235,966 deals in Four Days

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nigerian shares

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited opened its doors to market participants in four days last week as a result of a public holiday observed on Friday, June 12, for 2026 Democracy Day in the country.

In the week, investors bought and sold 4.964 billion shares worth N207.521 billion in 235,966 deals, as against the 3.966 billion shares valued at N175.659 billion that exchanged hands in 343,587 deals a week earlier.

Analysis showed that the financial services industry led the activity chart with 4.116 billion shares valued at N84.607 billion in 96,165 deals, contributing 82.92 per cent and 40.77 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The services sector transacted 232.479 million shares worth N4.955 billion in 17,614 deals, while the industrial goods segment exchanged 144.988 million shares worth N39.077 billion in 24,775 deals.

Sterling Holdings, FCMB, and Access Holdings were the most traded stocks with 2.883 billion units sold for N36.188 billion in 15,533 deals, accounting for 58.09 per cent and 17.44 per cent of the total trading volume and value, respectively.

A total of 40 equities appreciated in the week versus 23 equities in the previous week, 53 equities depreciated versus 65 equities a week earlier, and 53 equities remained unchanged versus 58 equities in the preceding week.

ABC Transport was the best-performing equity for the week after it gained 25.60 per cent to trade at N7.80, Consolidated Hallmark appreciated by 23.13 per cent to N8.25, Abbey Mortgage Bank rose by 21.93 per cent to N11.40, Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank grew by 20.32 per cent to N11.25, and Austin Laz soared by 15.16 per cent to N4.33.

The worst-performing equity last week was Fidson Healthcare because of its 25.86 per cent loss, closing at N101.20. Neimeth declined by 19.14 per cent to N8.55, Union Homes REIT shed 17.36 per cent to close at N70.00, SUNU Assurances slipped by 11.38 per cent to N3.97, and Unilever Nigeria dropped 10.26 per cent to trade at N140.00.

As for the index movement, the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation chalked up 0.88 per cent each to settle at 244,738.74 points and N156.970 trillion, respectively.

Similarly, all other indices finished higher apart from the pension, AFR Bank Value, MERI Growth, MERI Value, consumer goods, Lotus II, industrial goods, sovereign bond and commodity indices, which fell by 0.03 per cent, 1.20 per cent, 0.21 per cent, 1.61 per cent, 0.54 per cent, 0.51 per cent, 1.00 per cent, 2.04 per cent and 0.34 per cent, respectively.

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Economy

Brent Falls to $87 Per Barrel on Expected US-Iran Peace Deal

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Brent crude futures

By Adedapo Adesanya

Brent crude prices fell by $3.05 or 3.37 per cent to $87.33 per barrel on Friday, the lowest level since early March, triggered by expectations of an imminent ‌peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $84.88 a barrel after it gave up $2.83 or 3.23 per cent. It was its lowest level since April 17.

Reuters reported that a memorandum between the US and Iran to halt the war in the Gulf could be signed as soon as Sunday, citing sources.

The sources indicate that the US would immediately begin releasing billions of Dollars in frozen Iranian assets and waive sanctions on its oil exports, in return for Iran opening the strait.

The proposals also include discussion of possible war reparations for Iran and dropping longstanding US demands for limits on Iran’s missile program, the sources were quoted as saying.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday that a memorandum of understanding had not yet been signed and could still change.

He also said that management of the Strait of Hormuz would not ⁠return to the pre-war era, that sovereignty over the strait belonged to ⁠Iran and Oman, and that Iran would secure safe ⁠passage for ships through it.

US President Donald Trump called off threatened air strikes against Iran on Thursday, while it was reported that final negotiations on the memorandum would focus on nuclear and economic issues but would exclude discussions about Iran’s missile programme.

On Thursday, Iran ‌announced ⁠a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, saying it would fire on any ship trying to pass through.

Traffic through the strait, which normally carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has been extremely limited as a result of the war.

The US military, however, said on social media that commercial ships continued to transit the waterway.

Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80 a barrel ⁠on higher supply and lower demand, but expects prices to exceed the 2025 average on stockpiling of OECD commercial oil stocks and a security premium for disruptions.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday lowered its forecast for 2026 world oil demand growth to 970,000 barrels per day ⁠from a previous 1.17 million barrels per day, its second straight downward revision.

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Economy

Standard Bank Describes Dangote Refinery as Transformational Industrial Project

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standard bank dangote refinery

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Lagos-based Dangote Petroleum Refinery has been described by Standard Bank Group as a transformational industrial project with far-reaching implications for Nigeria and Africa.

The company, which is Africa’s largest financial institution, gave this description after a tour of the facility recently.

Standard Bank, the parent company of Stanbic IBTC Holdings, has promised to support the planned listing of the 650,000 barrels per day refinery and expressed readiness to finance future expansion projects across the continent.

The chief executive of the lender, Mr Sim Tshabalala, said, “We are here because the Dangote Group is a large and important global player and a significant force on the African continent.”

“Standard Bank is the largest financial institution in Africa, and we have partnered with Dangote on a variety of initiatives. We are here to lend support, to see this magnificent refinery and to discuss Vision 2030 and how we can continue supporting the Group’s growth ambitions,” he added.

Mr Tshabalala disclosed that Standard Bank intends to play a leading role in the refinery’s planned Initial Public Offering and future growth initiatives.

“As Dangote lists, there is an IPO coming up, and we are a leading player in that process,” he said, adding that, “As the group continues to expand in Nigeria and across Africa, there will be opportunities for financial advisory services and balance sheet support, and we stand ready to provide both.”

He further described the refinery as “a wonder of the world,” noting that its impact is already being felt through stronger foreign exchange earnings, improved balance-of-payments performance and enhanced energy security.

“This is a wonder to behold. It is massive, productive and transformative. It is already making a significant contribution to Nigeria’s economy through its impact on foreign reserves, the balance of payments and the lives of ordinary Nigerians,” he said.

The Group Vice President for Oil and Gas at Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Devakumar Edwin, said the visit represented a significant milestone in a partnership that began during the refinery’s construction phase.

“The bank visited us during construction and understood the scale of what we were building,” Mr Edwin said. “Today, the refinery is fully operational, and they can see what their support has helped to create. It is like nurturing a tree and eventually seeing it bear fruit.”

He added that both organisations are exploring opportunities to deepen collaboration as Dangote expands its industrial footprint across Africa.

Also speaking, the chief executive of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Mr David Bird, said the visit highlighted the importance of long-term partnerships in delivering large-scale industrial projects.

“Standard Bank has been one of our strongest supporters throughout the history of the refinery and the broader Dangote Group.

“This visit was an opportunity to demonstrate what that support has enabled. Seeing is believing, and it allows our partners to appreciate the scale of what has been achieved,” Mr Bird stated.

The visit also coincided with a major operational milestone for the refinery, which has now exceeded its original design capacity.

Mr Bird disclosed that the refinery recently completed performance test runs at 700,000 barrels per day, above its nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

“We have always believed there was engineering flexibility built into the design,” he said. “Achieving sustained production of 700,000 barrels per day is a testament to the technical capability of our people and the strength of the systems we have built.”

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