Economy
Analysts Predict 18% Inflation Rate for January 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
Analysts have projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation could rise to about 18 per cent in January, defying the downward trend recorded in 2025.
The forecast comes ahead of the first Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of 2026 due on Monday.
Headline inflation closed December at 15.15 per cent year-on-year, while the annual average eased sharply to 23.33 per cent from 33.18 per cent in 2024.
According to analysts at Cowry Research, the recent CPI normalisation has created a lower base for January comparisons, making a temporary uptick in headline inflation likely in January and possibly February. It projects inflation to trend within the 17.8 per cent to 18.7 per cent range in 2026, driven by election-related spending pressures and fading base effects, even as structural reforms support a medium-term disinflation path.
Similarly, analysts at Quest Merchant Bank said the lower base effect could push January inflation to around 18 per cent to 19 per cent. They, however, expect inflation to resume a broadly disinflationary trajectory over the course of the year, supported by softer energy prices, stable exchange rate conditions and easing food costs.
Last year’s deceleration was driven largely by base effects after the stats office normalised its CPI computation methodology. Unlike previous rebasing exercises that used a single month as the base period, the agency calculated the base using the average of all months in 2024. The rebasing also involved reweighting several categories and expanding the inflation basket to 934 items from 740.
In December alone, the NBS published two separate inflation figures for December after the CPI methodology tweaking caused the headline rate to more than double.
Nigeria’s inflation data are closely monitored by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as it transitions toward an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework.
The CBN has already factored in the CPI rebasing and related computational issues in its three-year inflation forecast.
The apex bank is targeting a slowdown in inflation to around 13 per cent by next year, despite current price pressures and statistical adjustments.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet next week, and today’s inflation report will form the basis for whether there will be a cut or hold in the interest rates.
By Dipo Olowookere
Nigerian stocks shrank by 0.02 per cent as a result of renewed selling pressure, after the consumer goods index crumbled by 0.89 per cent, and the banking space contracted by 0.23 per cent.
Business Post reports that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited weakened yesterday despite the energy sector closing 1.78 per cent higher, the insurance segment increasing by 0.31 per cent, and the industrial goods counter closing flat.
The All-Share Index (ASI) eased by 44.83 points to 200,913.06 points from 200,957.89 points, and the market capitalisation decreased by N29 billion to N128.969 trillion from N128.998 trillion.
eTranzact lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N20.70, Abbey Mortgage Bank declined by 10.00 per cent to N9.90, Cadbury Nigeria retreated by 10.00 per cent to N63.00, Eterna also fell by 10.00 per cent to N33.75, and DAAR Communications dipped by 9.50 per cent to N1.81.
Conversely, Premier Paints appreciated by 9.97 per cent to N37.50, Zichis gained 9.97 per cent to trade at N13.79, McNichols improved by 9.93 per cent to N7.42, John Holt chalked up 9.86 per cent to close at N18.95, and Trans Nationwide Express went up by 9.75 per cent to N2.59.
On the last day of the week, 595.2 million equities valued at N24.5 billion were transacted in 43,440 deals versus the 678.1 million equities worth N33.1 billion traded in 42,222 deals in the previous session.
This showed an improvement in the number of deals by 2.89 per cent, and a cut in the trading volume and value by 12.22 per cent and 25.98 per cent, respectively.
Wema Bank ended the day as the busiest stock after a turnover of 131.5 million units worth N3.5 billion, Legend Internet traded 41.6 million units valued at N339.2 million, Zichis sold 35.2 million units for N485.6 million, Access Holdings exchanged 29.4 million units worth N764.8 million, and Japaul transacted 21.5 million units valued at N74.6 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
A loss recorded by market bellwether, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, outweighed the presence of three price gainers, weakening the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.73 per cent on Friday, March 27.
The Nigerian securities depository firm lost N6.27 during the session to close at N80.10 per share compared with the previous day’s N86.37 per share.
As a result, the market capitalisation shrank by N18.41 billion to N2.512 trillion from the previous session’s N2.531 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) declined by 30.77 points to 4,199.69 points from 4,230.46 points.
The green side of the price movement log showed 11 Plc appreciating by N31.92 to N351.17 per unit from N319.25 per unit, Nigeria Mortgage Refinance Company Plc (NMRC) rose by 55 Kobo to sell at N6.05 per share compared with Thursday’s closing price of N5.50 per share, and IPWA Plc recorded a 50 Kobo growth to end at N5.51per unit, in contrast to the preceding day’s N5.01 per unit.
When the bourse closed for the day, there was a 17,067.5 per cent surge in the voluime of transactions to 58.6 million units from 342,825 units, the value of trades increased by 6,895.4 per cent in the value of securities traded as it closed at N1.6 billion compared to N23.0 million, and the number of deals executed at the session rose 85.2 per cent to 50 deals compared to the preceding session’s 27 deals.
CSCS Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 56.2 million units exchanged for N3.8 billion, Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc followed with 400 million units valued at N1.2 billion, and Okitipupa Plc came next with 6.5 million units traded at N1.2 billion.
Resourcery Plc closed the trading session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million, followed by Infrastructure Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 133.0 million units at N511.1 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira maintained stability against the United States Dollar in the black market segment of the foreign exchange (FX) market on Friday, March 27, data obtained by Business Post showed. It also remained unchanged at the GTBank FX counter at N1,401/$1.
However, it further appreciated in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) during the session by N3.30 or 0.2 per cent to N1,380.58/$1 from the previous day’s rate of N1,383.88/$1.
In the same vein, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the spot market yesterday by N10.77 to trade at N1,836.99/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,847.76/£1, and gained N5.06 against the Euro to sell at N1,592.08/€1 versus N1,597.14/€1.
The Naira remains under pressure, but the current range indicates a form of stability as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reiterated its promise to anchor reforms around FX rate stability and stronger reserves to support financial markets.
Amid the currency pressures, the apex bank introduced a series of measures aimed at improving liquidity and strengthening the FX market. In a key move, the apex bank removed the cash pooling requirement for International Oil Companies (IOCs), allowing them full access to their repatriated export proceeds from the previous 50 per cent.
However, the country could see less short-term Dollar supply staying in the country and may invite pressure on the Naira if outflows exceed inflows.
The pressure on the currency comes amid a sustained decline in Nigeria’s external reserves, which provide the central bank with the buffer to support the naira. The reserves fell for the ninth consecutive day to $49.48 billion as of March 26, 2026, marking a decline of $540 million, or 1.08 per cent, from $50.02 billion recorded on March 11.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market tumbled on Friday due to a broader sell-off in US equities, which recorded a $17 trillion loss. The Friday plunge fits into a pattern since the war in Iran broke out, with gains on Monday turning into losses by the end of the week.
Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 3.2 per cent to $2,003.73, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 3.1 per cent to $66,439.48, Solana (SOL) dropped by 2.9 per cent to $83.44, Cardano (ADA) crashed to $0.2474, Binance Coin (BNB) went down by 2.4 per cent to $613.17, TRON (TRX) dipped 1.5 per cent to $0.3113, Dogecoin (DOGE) declined by 1.4 per cent to $0.0908, and Ripple (XRP) slumped 1.4 per cent to sell at $1.33, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
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