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Economy

Analysts Predict 18% Inflation Rate for January 2026

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inflation food prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

Analysts have projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation could rise to about 18 per cent in January, defying the downward trend recorded in 2025.

The forecast comes ahead of the first Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of 2026 due on Monday.

Headline inflation closed December at 15.15 per cent year-on-year, while the annual average eased sharply to 23.33 per cent from 33.18 per cent in 2024.

According to analysts at Cowry Research, the recent CPI normalisation has created a lower base for January comparisons, making a temporary uptick in headline inflation likely in January and possibly February. It projects inflation to trend within the 17.8 per cent to 18.7 per cent range in 2026, driven by election-related spending pressures and fading base effects, even as structural reforms support a medium-term disinflation path.

Similarly, analysts at Quest Merchant Bank said the lower base effect could push January inflation to around 18 per cent to 19 per cent. They, however, expect inflation to resume a broadly disinflationary trajectory over the course of the year, supported by softer energy prices, stable exchange rate conditions and easing food costs.

Last year’s deceleration was driven largely by base effects after the stats office normalised its CPI computation methodology. Unlike previous rebasing exercises that used a single month as the base period, the agency calculated the base using the average of all months in 2024. The rebasing also involved reweighting several categories and expanding the inflation basket to 934 items from 740.

In December alone, the NBS published two separate inflation figures for December after the CPI methodology tweaking caused the headline rate to more than double.

Nigeria’s inflation data are closely monitored by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as it transitions toward an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework.

The CBN has already factored in the CPI rebasing and related computational issues in its three-year inflation forecast.

The apex bank is targeting a slowdown in inflation to around 13 per cent by next year, despite current price pressures and statistical adjustments.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet next week, and today’s inflation report will form the basis for whether there will be a cut or hold in the interest rates.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Naira Closes Flat at N1,393/$1 at Official Market

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Naira-Yuan Currency Swap Deal

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira halted two consecutive weeks of depreciation in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, March 9, by remaining unchanged at N1,393.26/$1.

However, against the Pound Sterling, it further depreciated by N3.07 yesterday to trade at N1,863.06/£1 compared with last Friday’s value of N1,859.99/£1, and lost 65 Kobo against the Euro to close at N1,612.14/€1 versus the preceding session’s rate of N1,611.49/€1.

In the black market, the Nigerian Naira crashed against the Dollar yesterday by N10 to quote at N1,415/$1 compared with the N1,405/$1 it was exchanged in the previous trading session, and at the GTBank FX desk, it weakened by N9 to sell for N1,419/$1 versus the previous value of N1,410/$1.

The Naira’s performance comes as rising demand for foreign payments is outpacing supply, heightening worries that the domestic currency is entering the threshold it hasn’t traded in over two months.

Despite this, there appears to be a rise in foreign exchange inflows into the country’s currency market, with data from Coronation Merchant Bank showing that in the past week, FX inflows into the market have strengthened. As of the end of last week, total FX inflows into the Nigerian market settled at $1.26 billion, representing an increase of 17.76 per cent compared with $1.07 billion recorded in the previous week.

In the cryptocurrency market, tensions that have spurred higher energy prices and reignited inflation fears, which could potentially delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, eased after US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could be over soon. This led to crypto and equity markets adding to gains following the comments.

Solana (SOL) appreciated by 5.6 per cent to $86.05, Ethereum (ETH) expanded by 5.5 per cent to $2,024.18, Bitcoin (BTC) added 4.6 per cent to sell for $68,802.86, Binance Coin (BNB) gained 4.1 per cent to trade at $639.78, and Cardano (ADA) jumped 3.3 per cent to $0.2582.

Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 2.9 per cent to $0.0914, Litecoin (LTC) went up by 2.8 per cent to $54.10, and Ripple (XRP) improved by 2.4 per cent to $1.37, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Petrol Sells N1,230 Per Litre in Lagos After Surge in Crude Oil Prices

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By Dipo Olowookere

The rise in the prices of crude oil grades on the global market as a result of the attacks on Iran by the duo of the United States and Israel has triggered an increase in the price of premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, in Nigeria.

This reporter observed that some petrol stations dispensing the product to consumers were selling above N1,200 on Monday evening.

In the areas monitored by Business Post yesterday in the Alimosho area of Lagos State, most of the fuel stations selling PMS did so at between N1,200 and N1,230 per litre.

A retailer around Jendol Superstores on Ipaja Road, dispensing at N1,020 to motorists, witnessed a long queue on Monday evening, causing traffic gridlock that stretched to Abesan Roundabout.

But the others selling at N1,230, especially in the Okunola area of Alimosho, had few vehicles, while many others shut their gates and were not selling.

It was gathered that the pump price rose to N1,230 per litre yesterday evening, as many of them sold at N1,050 per litre in the morning.

“The situation is crazy,” a motorist, who spoke with the newspaper, lamented.

“But why is petrol very expensive in Nigeria when we were not bombed like Saudi Arabia?” another consumer, who identified himself as Mr Tayo Goriola, queried.

An analyst speaking on Nigeria Info 99.3 FM Lagos on Monday, Mr Majeed Dahiru, said it was wrong for the government to hand off subsidy on energy because of situations like this.

“This was what some of us foresaw when we said the government cannot remove a safety net called a subsidy on energy because of times like this.

“As we speak, all others have triggered their safety mechanisms to stabilise prices, including in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which have come under attack, unlike Nigeria, which has not been attacked,” he said on Dailies Today with Kofi Bartels yesterday.

Petrol prices went up on Monday after the crude oil hit $105 per barrel, and there are fears that the war could jack prices up to $150 per barrel, which could raise PMS to N1,500 or N2,000 per litre in Nigeria.

Meanwhile, Dangote Refinery has assured Nigerians of sufficient supply of PMS during this period, saying, “With government support and steady access to domestic crude, Dangote Refinery will continue to meet all of Nigeria’s refined fuel requirements.”

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Economy

NNPC Grows Profit to N385bn Amid 46.7% Fall in January Revenue

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NNPC Crude Cargoes pricing

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

In January 2026, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited recorded a 9.69 per cent rise in profit after tax amid a 46.70 per cent decline in revenue.

According to its latest monthly report summary for the first month of this year, the net profit for the period under consideration stood at N385 billion compared with the N351 billion recorded in December 2025.

The state-owned oil firm disclosed that in January 2026, it generated a revenue of N2.571 trillion, in contrast to the N4.824 trillion achieved a month earlier.

The NNPC also revealed that in the month, the crude oil and condensate production stood at 1.64 million barrels per day, higher than the 1.54 million barrels per day in the preceding month.

Also, the natural gas output increased in the month under review to 7,283 mmscf/d versus 6,914 mmscf/d in December 2025, as the upstream pipeline availability dipped to 96 per cent from 100 per cent a month earlier.

The surge in production was attributed to the completion of Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) at Agbami and Renaissance (Estuary Area – EA), though planned deliveries for January were reduced due to bad weather, evacuation, and asset integrity challenges.

As for the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline, the NNPC said pre-commissioning activities continued while significant progress was reported in the construction of the Block Valve Stations (BVS) and Intermediate Pigging Stations (IPS). The project is 92 per cent completed.

Giving an update on the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) gas pipeline, it said the drilling activities progressed as scheduled in the OB3 River Niger crossing.

The company also said the Financial Literacy Program for 2026 Batch A, Stream 1 NYSC Corps Members was successfully conducted on Sunday, January 25, 2026, via online streaming. The session reached 79,657 participants across the 36 states and the FCT, bringing the cumulative number of corps members trained under the program to 1,231,081.

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