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Economy

Analysts Predict 18% Inflation Rate for January 2026

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inflation food prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

Analysts have projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation could rise to about 18 per cent in January, defying the downward trend recorded in 2025.

The forecast comes ahead of the first Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of 2026 due on Monday.

Headline inflation closed December at 15.15 per cent year-on-year, while the annual average eased sharply to 23.33 per cent from 33.18 per cent in 2024.

According to analysts at Cowry Research, the recent CPI normalisation has created a lower base for January comparisons, making a temporary uptick in headline inflation likely in January and possibly February. It projects inflation to trend within the 17.8 per cent to 18.7 per cent range in 2026, driven by election-related spending pressures and fading base effects, even as structural reforms support a medium-term disinflation path.

Similarly, analysts at Quest Merchant Bank said the lower base effect could push January inflation to around 18 per cent to 19 per cent. They, however, expect inflation to resume a broadly disinflationary trajectory over the course of the year, supported by softer energy prices, stable exchange rate conditions and easing food costs.

Last year’s deceleration was driven largely by base effects after the stats office normalised its CPI computation methodology. Unlike previous rebasing exercises that used a single month as the base period, the agency calculated the base using the average of all months in 2024. The rebasing also involved reweighting several categories and expanding the inflation basket to 934 items from 740.

In December alone, the NBS published two separate inflation figures for December after the CPI methodology tweaking caused the headline rate to more than double.

Nigeria’s inflation data are closely monitored by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as it transitions toward an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework.

The CBN has already factored in the CPI rebasing and related computational issues in its three-year inflation forecast.

The apex bank is targeting a slowdown in inflation to around 13 per cent by next year, despite current price pressures and statistical adjustments.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet next week, and today’s inflation report will form the basis for whether there will be a cut or hold in the interest rates.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

NASD OTC Exchange Gains N26.99bn as Investors Drive 1.04% Rally

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NASD OTC exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange jumped 1.04 per cent on Wednesday, June 17, with the market capitalisation adding N26.99 billion to settle at N2.619 trillion compared with the previous session’s N2.592 trillion, and the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) rising by 45.1 points to close at 4,378.45 points, in contrast to the preceding day’s 4,333.35 points.

The rally was driven by the gains reported by two securities, which outweighed the losses posted by three securities, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which dipped by N1.95 to N178.19 per unit from N180.14 per unit. Geo-Fluids Plc lost 19 Kobo to close at N2.61 per share compared with Tuesday’s closing price of N2.80 per share, and Food Concepts Plc slid by 1 Kobo to N1.77 per unit from N1.78 per unit.

On the flip side, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc recorded a N6.33 appreciation to trade at N86.57 per share versus the previous day’s N80.24 per share, and Light House Financial Services Plc grew by 10 Kobo to N1.13 per unit from the N1.03 per unit it closed a day earlier.

In the midweek session, the value of stocks traded by investors surged by 181.0 per cent to N128.3 million from the preceding session’s N45.6 million, the volume of securities increased by 305.6 per cent to 2.8 million units from Tuesday’s 688,290 units, and the number of deals executed jumped by 6.5 per cent to 33 deals from 31 deals.

At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 67.3 million units exchanged for N4.6 billion.

GNI Plc also ended as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.

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Economy

Ayobo-Ipaja LCDA Explores Commercial Ostrich, Crocodile Farming

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ostrich and Crocodile Farming

By Dipo Olowookere

As part of moves to boost its internally generated revenue (IGR) and increase its streams of income, Ayobo-Ipaja Local Council Development Area (LCDA) is considering commercial ostrich and crocodile farming.

The council recently held a sensitisation programme, where agribusiness experts engaged stakeholders, including residents and entrepreneurs, on the viability of this.

The programme provided participants with the knowledge on investment requirements, training opportunities, startup funding, and regulatory frameworks guiding ostrich and crocodile farming in Nigeria.

The chairman of Ayobo-Ipaja LCDA, Mr Lukmon Agbaje, commended the initiative, reiterating his administration’s commitment to promoting innovative agricultural practices as a pathway to sustainable development.

He described agriculture as a critical driver of economic transformation, stressing that modern farming has evolved into a profitable business venture with immense potential for youth empowerment and enterprise development.

Mr Agbaje further assured participants of the council’s readiness to partner with investors, agricultural institutions, and other relevant stakeholders to facilitate training, capacity building, and access to opportunities across the agricultural value chain.

On his part, the council’s Head of Department of Agriculture, Mr Wale Atepe, emphasised the growing market demand for products such as leather, meat, feathers, and other valuable by-products, adding that strategic investment in the sector could unlock significant opportunities for employment, wealth creation, and export earnings.

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Economy

Naira Tumbles to N1,360/$1 at Official Market

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Official FX Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira depreciated against the United States Dollar by 0.21 per cent or N2.89 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Wednesday, June 17, to N1,360.07/$1 from Tuesday’s closing rate of N1,357.18/$1.

In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira weakened against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N4.42 to trade at N1,824.81/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,820.39/£1, and lost N4.19 on the Euro to sell at N1,577.96/€1 compared with the previous day’s N1,573.79/€1.

However, at the GTBank segment, the local currency gained N1 against the greenback yesterday to exchange at N1,372/$1 versus N1,373/$1, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,385/$1 at midweek.

The Naira’s performance comes amid tight inflows from exporters, non-bank corporates, and foreign investors, evidenced by the slow movement of the country’s gross external reserves level of $50.505 billion, despite muted inflows from oil sales after a recent drop in prices.

There have been reduced FX market interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as it maintains its stance to keep the local unit stable enough to retain foreign investments.

The Nigerian government also dismissed a report suggesting that it was considering new taxes on telecommunications services and petroleum products, which would have spooked investors.

The federal government said that the reports misrepresented recommendations contained in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria, explaining that the recommendations were advisory and do not constitute government policy or binding obligations on Nigeria.

In the cryptocurrency market, prices were negative as traders and investors shrugged off a signed Iran peace deal that lifted stocks, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates but made clear it is more worried about inflation than growth.

Under the new Chair, Mr Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent,  in line with expectations, but its updated projections pointed to higher inflation and a slower pace of future rate cuts, and some officials floated the possibility that rates may still need to rise.

Cardano (ADA) slid 4.5 per cent to trade at $0.1731, Ripple (XRP) went down by 4.2 per cent to $1.16, Ethereum (ETH) shrank by 3.5 per cent to $1,727.55, Solana (SOL) lost 3.4 per cent to sell $71.05, Dogecoin (DOGE) also fell by 3.4 per cent to $0.0843, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 3.1 per cent to $587.53, and Bitcoin (BTC) crashed by 2.6 per cent to $63,892.28, while TRON (TRX) gained 0.7 per cent to finish at $0.3201, with the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closing flat at $1.00 each.

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