Economy
Analysts Predict 18% Inflation Rate for January 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
Analysts have projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation could rise to about 18 per cent in January, defying the downward trend recorded in 2025.
The forecast comes ahead of the first Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of 2026 due on Monday.
Headline inflation closed December at 15.15 per cent year-on-year, while the annual average eased sharply to 23.33 per cent from 33.18 per cent in 2024.
According to analysts at Cowry Research, the recent CPI normalisation has created a lower base for January comparisons, making a temporary uptick in headline inflation likely in January and possibly February. It projects inflation to trend within the 17.8 per cent to 18.7 per cent range in 2026, driven by election-related spending pressures and fading base effects, even as structural reforms support a medium-term disinflation path.
Similarly, analysts at Quest Merchant Bank said the lower base effect could push January inflation to around 18 per cent to 19 per cent. They, however, expect inflation to resume a broadly disinflationary trajectory over the course of the year, supported by softer energy prices, stable exchange rate conditions and easing food costs.
Last year’s deceleration was driven largely by base effects after the stats office normalised its CPI computation methodology. Unlike previous rebasing exercises that used a single month as the base period, the agency calculated the base using the average of all months in 2024. The rebasing also involved reweighting several categories and expanding the inflation basket to 934 items from 740.
In December alone, the NBS published two separate inflation figures for December after the CPI methodology tweaking caused the headline rate to more than double.
Nigeria’s inflation data are closely monitored by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as it transitions toward an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework.
The CBN has already factored in the CPI rebasing and related computational issues in its three-year inflation forecast.
The apex bank is targeting a slowdown in inflation to around 13 per cent by next year, despite current price pressures and statistical adjustments.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet next week, and today’s inflation report will form the basis for whether there will be a cut or hold in the interest rates.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira sold at N1,343.64/$1 Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, April 17, after shedding N1.34 or 0.10 per cent against the greenback from the previous day’s rate of N1,342.30/$1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window during the session by N5.03 to quote at N1,824.39/£1 versus the previous rate of N1,819.36/£1, and lost N10.05 against the Euro to sell at N1,591.14/€1 versus N1,581.09/€1.
At the GTBank FX desk, the exchange rate of the Naira to the Dollar remained unchanged at N1,355/$1, and it also maintained stability in the parallel market at N1,375/$1.
Interbank liquidity increased to N124.34 million from N74.255 million the previous day, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed.
Meanwhile, external reserves remain at $48.70 billion, down from the 2009 peak of $50 billion amidst uncertainties in the global commodities market.
Global oil prices dropped sharply on Friday after Iran signalled that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to commercial shipping during a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East.
Crypt assets also gained on the news from Iran’s foreign minister, who declared the Strait of Hormuz open, drawing a positive response from President Donald Trump. The development helped ease worry around risky assets like crypto.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was bullish, as traders weighed possible scenarios ahead of next week’s US-Iran cease-fire deadline.
Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 3.2 per cent to $2,410.53, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped by 2.8 per cent to $77,124.22, Ripple (XRP) rose by 2.7 per cent to $1.47, Binance Coin (BNB) expanded by 2.5 per cent to $643.97, Dogecoin (DOGE) added 1.0 per cent to close at $0.0988, Cardano (ADA) improved by 0.9 per cent to $0.2578, Solana (SOL) soared by 0.4 per cent to $88.53, and TRON (TRX) gained 0.4 per cent to sell at $0.3275, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices plunged by 9 per cent on Friday after Iran said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period.
Brent crude futures lost $9.01 or 9.07 per cent to trade at $90.38 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures depreciated by $10.48 or 11.45 per cent to finish at $83.85 a barrel.
Iran said Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for the remainder of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, bolstering hopes of a breakthrough in the weeks-long crisis over the crucial oil route.
Iran had maintained its blockade of the strait despite a two-week ceasefire with the US, which expires on Tuesday, and previously said it would not open the key waterway while Israel continued to strike Lebanon.
Business Post had reported that oil prices weakened to around $88 per barrel after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi posted on X that “all commercial vessels” would be allowed to pass through the strait throughout the remainder of the ten-day ceasefire in Lebanon.
US President Donald Trump thanked Iran on Truth Social, but stressed that the US naval blockade of the regime’s ports would remain “in full force and effect” until a peace deal was completed. “This process should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated,” he added.
A second round of truce talks between the US and Iran is expected to take place as oil tankers are beginning to test the waters at the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the fact that all ships can sail through the Strait of Hormuz, this passage needs to be coordinated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Market analysts noted that if these initial tankers make it through, flows will begin to partially normalise. However, a handful of vessels does not equal restored capacity. The backlog alone will take significant time to clear, and producers across the region are still dealing with disrupted output and logistics.
Prices had already fallen earlier in the Friday session as possible further talks between the US and Iran over the weekend and a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel raised investors’ hopes that the war in the Middle East could be nearing an end.
The American President also said on Friday that the US has banned Israel from further bombing in Lebanon, using a harsher tone than usual with the longtime US ally.
By Dipo Olowookere
The daily stock trading hours on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) have been expanded by an hour to 4.00 pm after extensive stakeholder engagement, ensuring alignment and operational readiness ahead of the go-live date.
A statement from the bourse on Friday said the extension was approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Before now, trading activity on Customs Street resumed from 9.30 am to 2:30 pm, but from Monday, April 27, 2026, the resumption time would be 9.00 am, and the closing gong would be struck by 4.00 pm from Monday to Friday.
It was explained that this action was taken “to deepen market liquidity, enhance price discovery, and broaden investor access.”
The NGX has witnessed renewed investor interest due to increased awareness of equities lately, especially as the nation and the global community await the much-anticipated listing of Dangote Refinery shares later in the year, all things being equal.
The statement also noted that this extended trading window would provide greater flexibility for investors, improve responsiveness to market-moving information, and support broader participation across the market.
The development builds on the momentum of Nigeria’s recent reclassification to Frontier Market status by FTSE Russell, reinforcing NGX’s global positioning and enhancing its attractiveness to a broader pool of domestic and international investors.
It further stated that this reform reflects strong regulatory collaboration and underscores the SEC’s continued commitment to advancing market development initiatives. Alongside Nigeria’s Frontier Market reclassification, it signals a deliberate shift towards a more accessible, liquid, and globally competitive market.
With this development, NGX reinforces its position as a leading multi-asset exchange, deepening liquidity, improving market access, and supporting efficient capital formation within Nigeria’s financial markets.
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