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Economy

Analysts Predict 18% Inflation Rate for January 2026

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Analysts have projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation could rise to about 18 per cent in January, defying the downward trend recorded in 2025.

The forecast comes ahead of the first Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of 2026 due on Monday.

Headline inflation closed December at 15.15 per cent year-on-year, while the annual average eased sharply to 23.33 per cent from 33.18 per cent in 2024.

According to analysts at Cowry Research, the recent CPI normalisation has created a lower base for January comparisons, making a temporary uptick in headline inflation likely in January and possibly February. It projects inflation to trend within the 17.8 per cent to 18.7 per cent range in 2026, driven by election-related spending pressures and fading base effects, even as structural reforms support a medium-term disinflation path.

Similarly, analysts at Quest Merchant Bank said the lower base effect could push January inflation to around 18 per cent to 19 per cent. They, however, expect inflation to resume a broadly disinflationary trajectory over the course of the year, supported by softer energy prices, stable exchange rate conditions and easing food costs.

Last year’s deceleration was driven largely by base effects after the stats office normalised its CPI computation methodology. Unlike previous rebasing exercises that used a single month as the base period, the agency calculated the base using the average of all months in 2024. The rebasing also involved reweighting several categories and expanding the inflation basket to 934 items from 740.

In December alone, the NBS published two separate inflation figures for December after the CPI methodology tweaking caused the headline rate to more than double.

Nigeria’s inflation data are closely monitored by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as it transitions toward an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework.

The CBN has already factored in the CPI rebasing and related computational issues in its three-year inflation forecast.

The apex bank is targeting a slowdown in inflation to around 13 per cent by next year, despite current price pressures and statistical adjustments.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet next week, and today’s inflation report will form the basis for whether there will be a cut or hold in the interest rates.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Gains in Sovereign Trust Insurance, Aradel Lift Stock Exchange by 0.26%

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By Dipo Olowookere

The last trading session of the week on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended on a positive note with a 0.26 per cent growth on Friday.

It was the first trading day after the two-day break observed on Wednesday and Thursday for Sallah celebrations by Muslims.

Market participants returned to Customs Street yesterday in high spirits, though keeping an eye on happenings in the macroeconomic environment.

This resulted in the market breadth index closing bearish after recording 32 price gainers and 33 price losers, implying weak investor sentiment.

Sovereign Trust Insurance and Zichis gained 10.00 per cent each to sell for N2.75 and N33.00 apiece, International Energy Insurance rose by 9.98 per cent to N4.52, McNichols grew by 9.85 per cent to N8.70, and Aradel Holdings increased by 9.59 per cent to N1,933.80.

Conversely, the trio of CAP, Austin Lax, and Premier Paints lost 10.00 per cent each to settle at N179.10, N3.96, and N33.75 apiece, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank decreased by 9.89 per cent to N4.01, and John Holt fell by 9.84 per cent to N16.95.

As for the performance of the key market sectors yesterday, the banking space shed 2.51 per cent, the consumer goods index depleted by 1.26 per cent, and the industrial goods sector tumbled by 0.05 per cent.

However, bargain-hunting raised the energy segment by 4.38 per cent and lifted the insurance counter by 0.86 per cent.

Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) closed higher by 646.63 points to 250,385.47 points from 249,738.84 points, and the market capitalisation improved by N415 billion to N160.509 trillion from N160.094 trillion.

A total of 1.2 billion stocks worth N43.4 billion exchanged hands in 93,626 deals during the session compared with the 564.1 million stocks valued at N27.2 billion traded in 65,666 deals in the preceding session. This showed that the trading volume, value, and number of deals went up by 112.73 per cent, 59.56 per cent, and 42.58 per cent, respectively.

Fidelity Bank ended the day as the busiest equity with a turnover of 483.0 million units valued at N8.7 billion, Access Holdings transacted 133.3 million units worth N3.2 billion, The Initiates sold 81.7 million units for N2.2 billion, Chams exchanged 43.9 million units valued at N173.8 million, and Dangote Sugar traded 28.4 million units worth N2.0 billion.

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Economy

Naira Strengthens Marginally to N1,375.25/$ in Official Market

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira returned from a two-day break on Friday, May 29, stronger against the United States Dollar by 16 Kobo or 0.01 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), trading at N1,375.25/$1 compared with N1,375.41/$1 it was exchanged on Tuesday.

The local currency also appreciated in the same market window against the Pound Sterling during the trading session by N3.62 to sell for N1,848.62/£1 versus N1,852.26/£1, but lost N2.16 against the Euro to close at N1,601.48/€1 compared with the previous rate of N1,599.32/€1.

The official forex market was closed on Wednesday and Thursday for the Sallah break.

A look at the GTBank FX desk showed that the Naira gained N4 against the Dollar yesterday to quote at N1,379/$1, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing value of N1,383/$1, and at the black market, it improved its value by N5 to N1,380/$1 versus the preceding session’s N1,385/$1.

Market analysts noted that the Nigerian Naira outlook remains stable, citing the latest round of FX inflows, which have lifted gross external reserves to $49.259 billion. Some projected that the domestic currency will close the first half of 2026 stronger as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues to inject FX inflows into the official market.

Also supporting expected stability is the continued government signal of growth. In his third year in office, in a speech on Friday, President Bola Tinubu inherited severe economic and structural challenges in 2023, including exchange-rate distortions, which he said have since been reformed.

“Multiple exchange rate windows and forex arbitrage created massive distortions, with Nigeria losing more than N8 trillion over three years to rent-seeking and speculative practices.”

According to the president, the situation required urgent and courageous decisions to avert a deeper economic crisis and fiscal collapse.

In the cryptocurrency market, US-Iran ceasefire hopes have failed to pull Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) higher, with the two largest cryptocurrencies losing almost 3 per cent as cooling spot bitcoin ETF inflows reinforced the pullback. BTC dropped 0.3 per cent to sell for $73,456.95, while ETH dipped 0.1 per cent to trade at $2,013.29.

Further, TRON (TRX) went down by 2.1 per cent to $0.3427, and Cardano (ADA) dipped 0.4 per cent to close at $0.2348.

On the other hand, Binance Coin (BNB) jumped 4.7 per cent to $667.52, Ripple (XRP) grew by 2.00 per cent to $1.34, and Solana (SOL) expanded by 0.1 per cent to $82.27, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Possible Ease in Middle East Tensions Calms Crude Oil Market by Over 2%

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The crude oil market shrank by more than 2 per cent on Friday as traders awaited a possible ceasefire deal among the United States, Israel and Iran.

Brent crude ‌settled at $92.05 a barrel after it lost $1.66 or 1.8 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) finished at $87.36 a barrel, down $1.54 or 1.7 per cent.

The latest reports as of Friday suggest that the US and Iran are set to extend the ceasefire, which will include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, such an extension would need to be endorsed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The US and Iran reportedly reached ​a tentative agreement on Thursday ⁠to extend a ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The three-month war between the US and Iran has been marked ​by frequent chatter of an impending end to the conflict that would open the crucial Strait of Hormuz, used to ​transit one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply. Even with both sides suggesting an agreement was forthcoming, ⁠their characterisations of the deal were still somewhat different.

The closure of the waterway has driven energy prices sharply higher worldwide. Recent sessions have been volatile, with swings by as much as $6 for both ​benchmarks on conflicting signals over a potential reopening of the strait.

Traffic through the maritime chokepoint remains a small fraction of levels before the conflict, with analysts saying a reopening ​of the waterway would offer some immediate relief to the oil market, but a recovery is ​still uncertain.

Japan, which relies ⁠heavily on oil from the Middle East, last month registered a 66 per cent drop in crude oil imports compared with April last year.

Prices plunged by 19 per cent in May as traders and speculators bet on an extended ceasefire and an eventual US-Iran deal despite the biggest physical supply disruption in history. The slump in prices in May follows the biggest monthly surge in history in April, when oil rallied amid the worst supply disruption ever.

Traders spent most of the week looking beyond current supply shortages and focusing on the possibility that a ceasefire agreement could eventually bring barrels back to market, leading to selloffs.

US crude, petrol, and distillate stockpiles fell ​last week, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), as demand from refiners and consumers rose, while exports fell by 1.16 million barrels per day to 4.4 million barrels per day.

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