Economy
Analysts Predict 18% Inflation Rate for January 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
Analysts have projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation could rise to about 18 per cent in January, defying the downward trend recorded in 2025.
The forecast comes ahead of the first Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of 2026 due on Monday.
Headline inflation closed December at 15.15 per cent year-on-year, while the annual average eased sharply to 23.33 per cent from 33.18 per cent in 2024.
According to analysts at Cowry Research, the recent CPI normalisation has created a lower base for January comparisons, making a temporary uptick in headline inflation likely in January and possibly February. It projects inflation to trend within the 17.8 per cent to 18.7 per cent range in 2026, driven by election-related spending pressures and fading base effects, even as structural reforms support a medium-term disinflation path.
Similarly, analysts at Quest Merchant Bank said the lower base effect could push January inflation to around 18 per cent to 19 per cent. They, however, expect inflation to resume a broadly disinflationary trajectory over the course of the year, supported by softer energy prices, stable exchange rate conditions and easing food costs.
Last year’s deceleration was driven largely by base effects after the stats office normalised its CPI computation methodology. Unlike previous rebasing exercises that used a single month as the base period, the agency calculated the base using the average of all months in 2024. The rebasing also involved reweighting several categories and expanding the inflation basket to 934 items from 740.
In December alone, the NBS published two separate inflation figures for December after the CPI methodology tweaking caused the headline rate to more than double.
Nigeria’s inflation data are closely monitored by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as it transitions toward an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework.
The CBN has already factored in the CPI rebasing and related computational issues in its three-year inflation forecast.
The apex bank is targeting a slowdown in inflation to around 13 per cent by next year, despite current price pressures and statistical adjustments.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet next week, and today’s inflation report will form the basis for whether there will be a cut or hold in the interest rates.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended rallied by 1.18 per cent on Friday, May 8, its fifth in a row for this week.
During the session, the market capitalisation increased by N28.96 billion to N2.488 trillion from N2.459 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) jumped by 48.39 points to 4,158.77 points from the 4,110.38 points recorded a day earlier.
The growth witnessed yesterday was spurred by the gains recorded by six securities, led by 11 Plc, which chalked up N11.00 to sell at 221.10 per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of N210.10 per unit. FrislandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc added N10.26 to close at N132.98 per share compared with the previous day’s N127.06 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc rose by N2.82 to N75.90 per unit from N73.08 per unit.
In addition, Lighthouse Financial Services Plc appreciated by 7 Kobo to 86 Kobo per share from 81 Kobo per share, UBN Property Plc climbed higher by 5 Kobo to N2.25 per unit from N2.20 per unit, and First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc gained 2 Kobo to close at N2.32 per share, in contrast to the previous session’s N2.30 per share.
Conversely, Geo-Fluids Plc went down by 20 Kobo to N2.90 per unit from N3.10 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc lost 5 Kobo to end at N16.95 per share versus N17.00 per share.
The volume of transactions for the session surged by 41.8 per cent to 528,891 units from 372,916 units, and the value grew by 11.4 per cent to N34.0 million from N30.4 million, while the number of deals slid by 7.4 per cent to 25 deals from 27 deals.
The most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion. Resourcery Plc occupied the second spot after trading 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million, and the third position was occupied by Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion.
The most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis was GNI Plc with 3.4 billion units transacted for N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 60.5 million units exchanged for N4.1 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units traded for N1.9 billion.
By Dipo Olowookere
The local stock exchange reversed the previous day’s loss, with a 2.10 per cent surge on Friday as a result of demand for large-cap equities like Dangote Cement, First Holdco and others.
It was observed that apart from the insurance counter, which shed 0.37 per cent, every other sector closed higher yesterday.
The industrial goods index expanded by 7.26 per cent, the banking segment increased by 3.35 per cent, the consumer goods industry rose by 0.21 per cent, and the energy sector soared by 0.14 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited improved by 5,041.22 points to 244,775.83 points from 239,734.61 points, and the market capitalisation added N3.235 trillion to settle at N157.094 trillion compared with the preceding session’s N153.859 trillion.
The quintet of Neimeth, Cadbury Nigeria, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank, Mecure, and Dangote Cement led the advancers’ table on Friday, with 10.00 per cent growth each to quote at N9.90, N72.60, N3.52, N72.60, and N1,088.00, respectively.
On the flip side, the duo of UAC Nigeria and Industrial and Medical Gases lost 10.00 per cent each to sell for N171.00 and N42.30, respectively, as Eterna declined by 9.93 per cent to N33.55, Learn Africa slipped by 9.89 per cent to N8.20, and Deap Capital tripped by 9.69 per cent to N5.50.
The most active stock for the day was VFD Group, with a turnover of 102.9 million units valued at N1.1 billion. FCMB transacted 99.4 million units worth N1.1 billion, UBA traded 94.5 million units for N3.8 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 85.4 million units worth N2.0 billion, and Zenith Bank sold 46.5 million units valued at N5.8 billion.
At the close of trades, market participants traded 1.1 billion units worth N55.0 billion in 69,996 deals, in contrast to the 1.8 billion units valued at N72.2 billion transacted in 81,131 deals a day earlier, showing a crash in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 38.89 per cent, 23.82 per cent, and 13.73 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira fell against the US Dollar by N5.54 or 0.41 per cent to N1,361.39/$1 from N1,355.85/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, May 8.
The domestic currency also depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N8.50 to trade at N1,853.68/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,845.18/£1, and against the Euro, it lost N9.37 to sell for N1,602.63/€1 versus N1,593.26/€1.
However, at the GTBank FX desk, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the US Dollar yesterday by N3 to quote at N1,372/$1 compared with Thursday’s closing value of N1,375/$1, and at the parallel market, it traded flat at N1,380/$1.
Despite the volatile outcome of the local currency, it remained within the expected trading range, reflecting sustained FX stabilisation efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), supported by improved liquidity, stronger autonomous inflows, and better price discovery.
Traders point to further gains for the Naira into the coming week, thanks to Dollar supply from foreign investors, exporters and oil companies, while demand is moderate. Nigerian yields are still attractive for foreign investors, serving as a basis for more (FX) flows coming to Nigeria.
Meanwhile, the country’s external reserves dropped by 3.4 per cent to $48.32 billion, from a 2009 high of $50.02 billion recorded on March 11.
In the cryptocurrency market, prices rallied after worries eased, following fresh US airstrikes in Iran that initially sparked a surge in oil prices and a broader risk-off move across crypto markets.
Bitcoin (BTC) added 0.8 per cent to sell at $80,212.54, Solana (SOL) gained 6.5 per cent to sell at $93.76, Cardano (ADA) appreciated by 5.1 per cent to $0.2749, Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 3.7 per cent to $0.1102, and Ripple (XRP) rose by 3.1 per cent to $1.42.
Further, Binance Coin (BNB) jumped 2.3 per cent to $650.16, Ethereum (ETH) expanded by 1.6 per cent to $2,315.48, and TRON (TRX) increased by 0.1 per cent to $0.3515, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
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