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Analysts Project Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves Rising to $45bn

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foreign reserves

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s external reserves could rise to about $45 billion by the end of the year, market analyst say, following established trends.

Last Tuesday, the foreign exchange reserves of the country increased to $41 billion, the highest level recorded in 44 months, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The development is a positive signal for the Naira, which has recorded one of its best periods of stability in recent months. On Monday, the local currency closed at N1,536 per Dollar at the official market.

The appreciation in the reserves also signalled a significant recovery following depletion driven by external debt repayments.

This month, the reserves have experienced a sustained appreciation. They increased by $1.56 billion from $39.54 billion on August 1 to $41.11 billion on August 22, representing a 3.95 per cent increase within the month.

According to the analysts at Cowry Assets Management in their weekly market report, the momentum of reserve growth appears likely to continue, supported by steady offshore inflows and potential external borrowings planned by the government.

“The combination of these factors should keep the reserves on an upward trajectory in the coming months. Our projection suggests that Nigeria’s reserves could rise to about $45 billion by the end of 2025, provided global risk conditions remain broadly supportive and offshore flows are not significantly disrupted. With the reserves position strengthening, the CBN will have greater flexibility to sustain its interventionist approach in the FX market. This, in turn, should help to maintain relative stability in the Naira across both official and parallel markets,” the experts said.

However, the analysts warned that challenges remain from externalities.

“As shifts in global financial markets or a sudden reversal in portfolio inflows could challenge the resilience of the current momentum. Nevertheless, the recent build-up represents a significant achievement and a positive signal for Nigeria’s external stability at a time when many emerging markets continue to grapple with external vulnerabilities,” they warned.

On their part, Meristem Securities analysts gave a lower expectation but maintained that the outlook was also positive. They projected that the reserves may well stay above the $40 billion threshold if current trends persist.

“The stronger reserve position is expected to enhance the CBN’s capacity to stabilise the Naira, bolster investor confidence, and support external balance. With oil receipts improving, portfolio inflows strengthening, and non-oil exports gaining traction, the momentum could be sustained in the near term. If current trends persist, reserves are likely to remain above the $40 billion threshold, providing a solid buffer for exchange rate management and broader macroeconomic stability,” the firm stated.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

CSCS Boss Shantali Says T+1 Settlement Targets Long-Term Capital Market Growth

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Shehu Yahaya Shantali

By Adedapo Adesanya

The chief executive of the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, Mr Shehu Yahaya Shantali, says Nigeria’s shift to a T+1 settlement cycle goes beyond faster transactions and is intended to deepen long-term growth in the capital market.

Speaking at a ceremony marking the commencement of T+1 settlement in Lagos, Mr Shantali described the development as a strategic milestone that goes beyond faster transaction timelines to reinforce the market’s structural strength and future readiness.

According to him, the shortened settlement cycle reflects years of investment in infrastructure, technology, and stakeholder collaboration aimed at transforming Nigeria into a globally competitive investment destination.

Nigeria recently became the first market in Africa to adopt the T+1 framework, reducing the settlement period for securities transactions from two days to one.

According to the boss of the securities depository firm, the shortened settlement cycle reflects years of investment in infrastructure, technology, and stakeholder collaboration aimed at transforming Nigeria into a globally competitive investment destination.

“These investments are not solely for T+1 settlement but to position Nigeria’s capital market for sustained growth and longterm competitiveness,” he said.

The migration from T+1 settlement is expected to enhance liquidity, improve capital efficiency, and reduce counterparty risk across the market.

Mr Shantali explained that the T+1 transition represents the culmination of a decades-long evolution from a manual, paper-based system to a fully automated, technology-driven post-trade environment.

He recalled that investors previously waited several months to complete transactions under the old system, but successive reforms, including transitions to T+5, T+3, and T+2, steadily improved efficiency and market integrity.

The latest upgrade, he said, builds on extensive preparations undertaken over the past three years, including system enhancements, process optimisation, and market-wide readiness assessments coordinated by the SEC and industry stakeholders.

On his part, the Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Mr Emomotimi Agama, said the reform signals Nigeria’s readiness to compete at the highest levels of global finance, noting that the country transitioned from T+2 to T+1 within six months.

“The era of T+1 has begun,” Mr Agama said, adding that shorter settlement cycles are critical to attracting global capital and strengthening investor confidence.

He noted that leading markets such as the United States, Canada, and India have already adopted T+1 settlement, while several European markets are preparing to migrate, making Nigeria’s transition a crucial step in maintaining international relevance.

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Economy

Businesses Not Feeling Full Benefits of Tinubu’s Reforms—NECA

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NECA Adewale Smatt-Oyerinde

By Adedapo Adesanya

Many private sector operators have yet to experience the anticipated gains of President Bola Tinubu’s reforms as they continue to grapple with inflation, energy costs and exchange rate volatility, the Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, has said.

Mr Oyerinde acknowledged that the removal of fuel subsidy and liberalisation of the foreign exchange market reflected the government’s commitment to market-driven economic policies and improved transparency across sectors.

He said the reforms had enhanced fuel availability, reduced recurring supply disruptions and signalled policy consistency to both local and foreign investors, but noted that while there are indications of improved investor confidence, many domestic businesses, particularly Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), continue to contend with operational challenges.

The NEC chief said the depreciation of the Naira had increased production costs, affected competitiveness and heightened operational risks for many businesses.

“Many private sector operators are yet to experience the anticipated gains of the reforms as they continue to grapple with inflation, energy costs and exchange rate volatility,” he said in a recent interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) while assessing the administration’s economic performance.

Mr Oyerinde said declining consumer purchasing power and increasing production expenses had placed pressure on businesses, with some firms adjusting investment plans and operations in response to prevailing economic conditions.

On infrastructure and refining, the NECA DG said developments in housing, industrial investments and local petroleum refining had created opportunities and contributed to improved fuel supply.

He, however, identified power supply as a major challenge facing businesses, citing persistent grid instability and reliance on alternative energy sources.

“In spite of the ongoing reforms in the power sector, insufficient electricity supply remains the number one constraint to business productivity and competitiveness across the country,” he said.

Mr Oyerinde said that although some macroeconomic indicators, including foreign reserves and government revenues, had shown improvement, the gains were yet to be broadly reflected in business operations and household welfare.

“Inflation, high energy costs, multiple taxation, logistics challenges and weak consumer spending continue to constrain productivity and limit business expansion,” he said.

He said employers remained cautious about large-scale recruitment amid high borrowing costs, foreign exchange volatility and rising operating expenses.

According to him, sustainable job creation will depend on deeper structural reforms that reduce the cost of doing business and improve access to affordable finance.

He urged the government to prioritise stable power supply, lower energy costs, tax harmonisation, policy consistency and foreign exchange stability to accelerate economic recovery and strengthen investor confidence.

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Economy

NASD Unlisted Security Index Records 1.89% Growth

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NASD Unlisted Security Index

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded its best performance this year on Tuesday, June 2, closing higher by 1.89 per cent.

During the session, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went up by 81.62 points to 4,406.30 points from the preceding day’s 4,324.68 points, and the market capitalisation added N48.48 billion to close at N2.636 trillion compared with Monday’s N2.587 trillion.

Business Post reports that the bourse recorded five price gainers and one price loser, Geo-Fluid Plc, which fell by 1 Kobo to N2.87 per unit from N2.88 per unit.

Conversely, Nipco Plc gained N31.57 to sell at N347.27 per share versus N315.70 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc grew by N9.86 to N196.51 per unit from N186.68 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc improved by N3.13 to N76.10 per share from N72.97 per share, Food Concepts Plc added 27 Kobo to sell at N2.95 per unit compared with the preceding day’s N2.68 per unit, and UBN Property Plc expanded by 17 Kobo to N2.20 per share from N2.03 per share.

Yesterday, the volume of securities transacted by investors depreciated by 91.4 per cent to 307,363 units from the previous session’s 3.6 million units, and the value of securities dropped 75.9 per cent to N42.8 million from the preceding session’s N177.4 million, while the number of deals went up by 13.5 per cent to 42 deals from Monday’s 37 deals.

At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units traded for N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.3 million units exchanged for N4.4 billion.

GNI Plc also finished as the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.

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