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Analysts Warn FG to Avert Imminent Debt Crisis in Nigeria

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Nigeria's total debts

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Federal government has been warned to as a matter of urgency implement policies that will grow and diversify the revenue base of the country. Failure to adhere to this, according to analysts at FSDH Research, could spell doom for the nation, especially in terms of a debt crisis.

In his weekly report obtained by Business Post on Tuesday, the investment firm said government was spending too much of its revenue to pay interest on loans, leaving authorities with little resources to spend on critical sectors of the economy that could support strong growth and maintain a healthy economy to generate revenue.

Business Post reports that this warning is coming exactly a week after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), at the end of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, warned that the country might slip into recession again two years after it first fell into economic crisis.

FSDH Research, in its report today, said its analysis shows that the growth in Nigeria’s debt is higher than the growth in revenue, pointing out that Nigeria has the lowest government revenue to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio at 6 percent among some selected countries.

According to the company, Nigeria’s over-dependency on crude oil revenue, combined with volatility in both the price and production of crude oil are the major reasons for sluggish growth in government revenue.

It said growing non-oil revenue will require that the Nigerian economic environment has inherent structures that can support business growth, noting that such structures include adequate physical infrastructure, policies, legal and regulatory frameworks that will make the economy business-friendly to generate taxable profits.

“Our analysis of the ratio of the interest payment on domestic debt relative to the FGN allocation from the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) shows that the FGN is spending too much of its revenue to pay interest on loans.

“This leaves the government with little resources to spend on critical sectors of the economy that could support strong growth and maintain a healthy economy to generate revenue,” it said.

FSDH Research said further that, “The current high interest payment relative to revenue may also increase the credit risk of the country. Although the government has been able to meet its debt obligations (interest and principal payments) so far, if the current situation is not addressed, the interest rate on government loans may increase because of the perceived elevated risk. This would also lead to higher interest rates for private sector operators.”

The firm disclosed that the external environment was becoming tighter than before because of the rising interest rate in the US.

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 percent to a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent.

In the report, FSDH Research predicts that the FOMC will still announce another rate increase before the end of the year.

The investment firm fears that this development will increase the borrowing cost on any new Dollar denominated loan.

“Consequently, borrowing in the international market is no longer as attractive as it was before. It is crucial, therefore, to structure the Nigerian economy to enable it to generate revenue and rely less on borrowing to meet its basic needs,” it submitted.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Geo-Fluids, Afriland Properties Lift NASD Bourse by 0.13%

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shareholders of Afriland Properties

By Adedapo Adesanya

The duo of Geo-Fluids Plc and Afriland Properties Plc propelled the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange up 0.13 per cent on Friday, January 10.

Investors gained N1.4 billion during the trading session after the market capitalisation of the bourse ended at N1.053 trillion compared with the previous day’s N1.052 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased at the close of business by 4.07 points to wrap the session at 3,073.93 points compared with 3,069.86 points recorded at the previous session.

Geo-Fluids added 25 Kobo to its value to close at N4.85 per unit compared with the previous session’s N4.60 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 24 Kobo to close at N16.25 per share versus Thursday’s closing price of N16.01 per share.

There was a 35.4 per cent fall in the volume of securities traded in the session as investors exchanged 4.3 million units compared to 6.6 million units traded in the preceding session, the value of shares traded yesterday went down by 37.4 per cent to N17.2 million from the N27.5 million recorded a day earlier, and the number of deals decreased by 47.2 per cent to 19 deals from the 36 deals recorded in the preceding day.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.9 million units worth N74.2 million, followed by 11 Plc with 12,963 units valued at N3.2 million, and Industrial and General Insurance  (IGI )Plc with 10.7 million units sold for N2.1 million.

IGI Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units sold for N2.1 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.9 million units valued at N74.2 million, and Acorn Petroleum Plc with 1.2 million units worth N1.9 million.

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Economy

Naira Depreciates to N1,543/$1 at Official Market

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Naira-Yuan Currency Swap Deal

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira witnessed a depreciation on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, January 10.

According to data from the FMDQ Exchange, the local currency weakened against the greenback yesterday by 0.12 per cent or N1.80 to sell for N1,543.03/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,541.23/$1.

The pressure on the domestic currency came as the access granted to the Bureaux de Change (BDC) operators by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to purchase FX from the official market through the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) platform prepares to end next week, precisely on January 19.

The CBN had given a 42-day window to the operators to access the platform to help stabilise the Naira in December, and this expires next week.

On Friday, the Nigerian currency tumbled against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N30.78 to sell for N1,889.29/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,858.51/£1, but gained N5.48 against the Euro to finish at N1,583.81/€1, in contrast to Thursday’s rate of N1,589.29/€1.

As for the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira remained stable against the US Dollar during the trading session at N1,650/$1, according to data obtained by Business Post.

In the cryptocurrency market, it was bearish as the US economy added 256,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday, topping forecasts for 160,000 and up from 212,000 in November (revised from an originally reported 227,000).

However, the readings came after a number of recent economic reports triggered a broad-market pullback across asset classes such as crypto as investors quickly scaled back the idea of a continued series of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.

Cardano (ADA) fell by 3.6 per cent to trade at $0.921, Solana (SOL) slumped by 2.8 per cent to $185.93, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.4 per cent to $3,233.27, Litecoin (LTC) lost 1.3 per cent to finish at $103.62, Dogecoin (DOGE) shed 0.5 per cent to sell at $0.3315, Bitcoin (BTC), waned by 0.2 per cent to $94,154.43, and Binance Coin (BNB) went south by 0.1  per cent to $693.30.

On the flip side, Ripple (XRP) jumped by 1.5 per cent to settle at $2.34, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Customs Street Crumbles by 0.08% as Profit-Takers Take Charge

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Customs Street

By Dipo Olowookere

Profit-takers took control of Customs Street on Friday, plunging it by 0.08 per cent at the close of trading activities.

The sell-offs were across all the key sectors of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on last trading session of the week.

The insurance space went down by 1.53 per cent, the banking index depreciated by 0.41 per cent, the consumer goods sector weakened by 0.16 per cent, and the energy counter slumped by 0.08 per cent, while the industrial goods sector closed flat.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) tumbled by 79.68 points to 105,451.06 points from 105,530.74 points and the market capitalisation retreated by N48 billion to N64.303 trillion from N64.351 trillion.

Yesterday, investors traded 1.5 billion shares worth N19.4 billion in 12,877 deals compared with the 489.5 million shares worth N13.1 billion transacted in 13,010 deals in the preceding day, indicating a decline in the number of deals by 1.02 deals and a rise in the trading volume and value by 203.14 per cent and 48.09 per cent, respectively.

Wema Bank was the busiest stock with 976.2 million units valued at N9.8 billion, Tantalizers traded 53.0 million units worth 129.6 million, Universal Insurance sold 34.8 million units for N26.8 million, Access Holdings exchanged 33.9 million units valued at N843.8 million, and Nigerian Breweries traded 27.3 million units worth N873.3 million.

The heaviest loss was suffered by Sunu Assurances with a decline of 9.99 per cent to trade at N7.30, Eunisell shed 9.96 per cent to N17.35, SAHCO crumbled by 9.87 per cent to N30.15, DAAR Communications plunged by 9.28 per cent to 88 Kobo, and Sovereign Trust Insurance went down by 7.04 per cent to N1.32.

On the flip side, C&I Leasing gained 10.00 per cent to close at N4.51, Honeywell Flour appreciated by 9.99 per cent to N10.02, Trans Nationwide Express jumped by 9.89 per cent to N2.00, RT Briscoe rose by 9.83 per cent to N2.57, and Secure Electronic Technology grew by 9.46 per cent to 81 Kobo.

Business Post reports that the bourse ended with 33 price gainers and 25 price losers, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.

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