Economy
Analysts Warn FG to Avert Imminent Debt Crisis in Nigeria
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Federal government has been warned to as a matter of urgency implement policies that will grow and diversify the revenue base of the country. Failure to adhere to this, according to analysts at FSDH Research, could spell doom for the nation, especially in terms of a debt crisis.
In his weekly report obtained by Business Post on Tuesday, the investment firm said government was spending too much of its revenue to pay interest on loans, leaving authorities with little resources to spend on critical sectors of the economy that could support strong growth and maintain a healthy economy to generate revenue.
Business Post reports that this warning is coming exactly a week after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), at the end of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, warned that the country might slip into recession again two years after it first fell into economic crisis.
FSDH Research, in its report today, said its analysis shows that the growth in Nigeria’s debt is higher than the growth in revenue, pointing out that Nigeria has the lowest government revenue to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio at 6 percent among some selected countries.
According to the company, Nigeria’s over-dependency on crude oil revenue, combined with volatility in both the price and production of crude oil are the major reasons for sluggish growth in government revenue.
It said growing non-oil revenue will require that the Nigerian economic environment has inherent structures that can support business growth, noting that such structures include adequate physical infrastructure, policies, legal and regulatory frameworks that will make the economy business-friendly to generate taxable profits.
“Our analysis of the ratio of the interest payment on domestic debt relative to the FGN allocation from the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) shows that the FGN is spending too much of its revenue to pay interest on loans.
“This leaves the government with little resources to spend on critical sectors of the economy that could support strong growth and maintain a healthy economy to generate revenue,” it said.
FSDH Research said further that, “The current high interest payment relative to revenue may also increase the credit risk of the country. Although the government has been able to meet its debt obligations (interest and principal payments) so far, if the current situation is not addressed, the interest rate on government loans may increase because of the perceived elevated risk. This would also lead to higher interest rates for private sector operators.”
The firm disclosed that the external environment was becoming tighter than before because of the rising interest rate in the US.
Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 percent to a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent.
In the report, FSDH Research predicts that the FOMC will still announce another rate increase before the end of the year.
The investment firm fears that this development will increase the borrowing cost on any new Dollar denominated loan.
“Consequently, borrowing in the international market is no longer as attractive as it was before. It is crucial, therefore, to structure the Nigerian economy to enable it to generate revenue and rely less on borrowing to meet its basic needs,” it submitted.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Four securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.95 per cent on Friday, erasing N41.17 billion from the bourse, which had its market capitalisation at N2.567 trillion compared with the previous session’s N2.618 trillion.
In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) decreased at the close of business by 85.28 points to 4,277.07 points from 4,362.32 points.
The price decliners were led by 11 Plc, which gave up N20.50 to sell at N200.50 per share compared with the preceding day’s N221.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped N16.94 to close at N155.20 per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of N172.14 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by N2.11 to N84.68 per share from N86.79 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc lost 11 Kobo to end at N16.74 per unit, in contrast to the N16.85 per unit it closed a day earlier.
During the trading day, the value of transactions jumped by 172.1 per cent to N29.9 million from the preceding session’s N10.9 million, and the volume of trades soared by 136.5 per cent to 955,096 units from the previous 403,901 units, while the number of deals went down by 11.4 per cent to 31 deals from 35 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.6 million units sold for N4.7 billion.
GNI Plc also ended the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units exchanged for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The last trading session of this week on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended on a negative note, with a 0.66 per cent loss on Friday.
This was influenced by sustained selling pressure and cautious trading, which forced investors into profit-taking.
Data obtained by Business Post showed that the energy sector fell by 4.66 per cent, the insurance counter dipped by 2.23 per cent, the consumer goods index depreciated by 0.96 per cent, and the banking segment shed 0.28 per cent, while the industrial goods space remained unchanged.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) of Nigeria’s stock exchange went down by 1,531.81 points to 232,049.02 points from 233,580.83 points, and the market capitalisation dropped N983 billion to settle at N148.905 trillion compared with Thursday’s N149.888 trillion.
Aradel was the worst-performing equity after it lost 10.00 per cent to close at N1,417.50. International Energy Insurance slipped by 9.95 per cent to N5.79, Trans-Nationwide Express depreciated by 9.89 per cent to N3.28, eTranzact crashed by 9.79 per cent to N14.75, and UPDC slumped by 9.72 per cent to N28.12.
The best-performing equity for the day was Universal Insurance, which gained 6.32 per cent to close at N1.01, McNichols grew by 5.52 per cent to N8.60, Linkage Assurance expanded by 4.67 per cent to N1.57, NGX Group appreciated by 4.35 per cent to N120.00, and Transcorp increased by 3.62 per cent to N41.50.
As look at the activity level indicated that investors traded 388.7 million stocks worth N18.4 billion in 44,631 deals compared with the 393.7 million stocks valued at N19.2 billion executed in 45,813 deals a day earlier, representing a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 1.27 per cent, 4.17 per cent, and 2.58 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira recorded a loss of 82 Kobo or 0.06 per cent against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, June 26, exchanging at N1,380.93/$1, in contrast to the previous day’s rate of N1,380.11/$1.
Equally, the domestic currency further weakened against the Pound Sterling in the official FX market yesterday by N6.06 to settle at N1,824.90/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,818.84/£1, and lost N10.74 on the Euro to sell at N1,577 .58/€1 versus N1,566.84/€1.
At the GTBank forex counter, the Naira depreciated against the greenback during the session by N4 to close at N1,387/$1, in contrast to Thursday’s value of N1,383/$1, and at the parallel market, it was unchanged at N1,395/$1.
Interbank FX activity among financial institutions has fluctuated amid a sharp slowdown in forex market interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), as it allows demand and supply to move the market.
Also, a stronger greenback has generally put significant pressure on emerging-market currencies.
Nigeria has accessed the first tranche of a proposed $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC, the largest lender in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The $5 billion facility, approved by the National Assembly earlier this year, is part of the federal government’s plan to diversify external financing sources and reduce borrowing costs. Structured as a Total Return Swap with First Abu Dhabi Bank, proceeds are earmarked for refinancing debt and supporting infrastructure financing.
If the proceeds are brought into the country through the official FX market, the transaction will increase the currency reserves or Dollar liquidity.
At the cryptocurrency market, Solana (SOL) grew by 2.2 per cent to $71.92, Cardano (ADA) gained 1.1 per cent to trade at $0.1474, Ripple (XRP) also appreciated by 1.1 per cent to $1.05, Dogecoin (DOGE) expanded by 0.9 per cent to $0.0755, and Ethereum (ETH) improved by 0.4 per cent to $1,578.84.
On the flip side, TRON (TRX) slid 0.6 per cent to $0.3203, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 0.3 per cent to $564.33, and Bitcoin fell by 0.2 per cent to $60,219.37, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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