By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited further appreciated by 0.40 per cent on Wednesday amid signs that investors are slowing down on their appetite for local equities.

Data from Customs Street showed that traders are rebalancing their portfolios and are selling off some stocks in a profit-taking move.

A total 35 shares ended on the gainers chart, while 38 shares finished on the losers’ log, indicating a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.

Union Dicon gained 10.00 per cent to trade at N8.80, Okomu Oil appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N1,204.50, Seplat also rose by 10.00 per cent to N6,171.00, NCR Nigeria improved by 9.97 per cent to N79.95, and McNichols advanced by 9.93 per cent to N4.76.

On the flip side, Cadbury Nigeria lost 10.00 per cent to sell for N63.00, Austin Laz retreated by 9.93 per cent to N5.08, Aluminium Extrusion shrank by 9.91 per cent to N19.55, Haldane McCall crashed by 9.85 per cent to N4.21, and FTN Cocoa slipped by 9.62 per cent to N6.01.

At midweek, investors transacted 1.4 billion stocks valued at N20.7 billion in 49,286 deals compared with the 759.0 million stocks worth N19.9 billion in 54,212 deals on Tuesday, representing a drop in the number of deals by 9.09 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 84.45 per cent apiece.

Universal Insurance was the busiest equity with 804.1 million units sold for N410.4 million, Linkage Assurance traded 54.9 million units worth N98.9 million, Access Holdings exchanged 29.7 million units valued at N691.5 million, Ellah Lakes exchanged 24.5 million units valued at N446.4 million, and Mutual Benefits transacted 24.5 million units worth N100.2 million.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 640.68 points to 160,591.76 points from 159,951.08 points and the market capitalisation rose by N410 billion to N102.685 trillion from N102.275 trillion.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices settled lower for a second straight session on Wednesday as investors digested US President Donald Trump’s deal to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude, a move that would lift supplies to the world’s largest oil consumer.

Brent crude futures lost 74 cents or 1.2 per cent to close at $59.96 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by $1.14 or 2 per cent to $55.99 a barrel.

Venezuela will be “turning over” between 30 million and 50 million barrels of “sanctioned oil” to the US, President Trump wrote in a social media post on Tuesday.

Reuters said the deal between US and Venezuela initially could require the rerouting of cargoes that were bound for China.

Venezuela has millions of barrels of oil loaded on tankers and in storage tanks that it has been unable to ship since mid-December due to a blockade on exports imposed by President Trump.

The blockade was part of a US pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government that culminated in American forces capturing him over the weekend.

The US also seized an empty Russian-flagged, Venezuela-linked oil tanker in the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.

The M/V Bella 1 vessel was seized for sanctions violations “pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court” after being tracked by a US Coast Guard cutter. The operation concludes a weeks-long chase that began in late December when the tanker abruptly turned away from Venezuela and headed into the open Atlantic to evade a US quarantine.

Crude oil inventories in the US posted a sharp draw last week, even as gasoline (petrol) and distillate stockpiles recorded sizable builds, according to new data released Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The EIA reported that US crude stocks dropped by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels in the week ended January 2.

US gasoline (petrol) stocks increased by 7.7 million barrels in the week, the EIA said, while distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, climbed by 5.6 million barrels in the week versus expectations for a rise of 2.1 million barrels.

Morgan Stanley analysts estimated the oil market could reach a surplus of as many as 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, based on weak growth in demand last year and rising supply.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) reiterated earlier this month to pause the planned unwinding of its voluntary cuts totaling 2.9 million barrels per day, keeping that volume off the market through the first half of the year.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Top economist, Mr Yemi Kale, has projected that the Naira will remain under pressure against the United States Dollar in 2026, due to some external pressures.

Mr Kale, who is currently the Senior Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and formerly the Statistician-General of Nigeria, made the disclosure while delivering his keynote speech at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.

He outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the Dollar/Naira exchange rate, reflecting varying assumptions around oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.

Under the baseline scenario, the Naira is projected to trade around N1,350/$1–N1,450/$1 by the end of 2026.

According to the outlook, key assumptions include moderate improvement in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, relative stability in FX policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks, such as a sharp oil price collapse or a global Dollar surge.

It is projected that by June 2026, Naira will trade at approximately N1,313 to the Dollar, and around N1,340/$1 by December 2026.

The outlook notes that currency risks remain elevated, justifying a cautious baseline forecast rather than expectations of strong appreciation.

It noted that the Naira would remain under pressure but avoid a sharp collapse, pointing to moderate depreciation or a mild recovery from weaker levels.

In a more positive outlook, the Naira could strengthen to between N1,200 and N1,300 per Dollar by the end of 2026.

Key assumptions include strong oil price recovery or successful export diversification, effective FX reforms by the CBN, improved liquidity, and narrower gaps between official and parallel markets, and significant decline in inflation, restoring investor confidence.

He noted that this could be buoyed by increased FX inflows from oil, gas, remittances, and non-oil exports

A weaker global US Dollar, which would support emerging-market currencies.

According to the outlook, even at N1,200, the Naira would remain significantly weaker than historical benchmarks, underscoring persistent structural challenges.

In the worst-case scenario projects the Naira could weaken to N1,550–N1,650 or beyond by the end of 2026.

Key assumptions are weak oil prices or production disruptions reducing FX inflows, deepening FX liquidity crisis and forced currency devaluation, and rising inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and erosion of investor confidence

While extreme, the scenario remains plausible given Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, including import dependence, FX mismatches, and inflationary pressures.

The outlook projects a gradual rebuild of Nigeria’s external reserves toward $45 billion by 2027, driven by higher remittance inflows, improved oil receipts, and portfolio investment re-entries.

He noted that policy consistency, particularly transparent FX management and fiscal discipline, is critical to sustaining investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.

He added that local refining capacity could also help reduce reliance on petroleum imports, save billions of Dollars in FX annually, while export growth in agriculture, manufacturing, and services under the AfCFTA is expanding Nigeria’s non-oil FX base.