Economy
Brent Crude Sells at $93 as Supply Tightens
By Adedapo Adesanya
Brent crude futures climbed by $1.82 or 1.98 per cent to $93.70 per barrel on Thursday, the highest level this year, as expectations of tighter supply outweighed worries about weaker economic growth.
Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.64 or 1.85 per cent during the trading session to close at $90.16 per barrel, the highest for the first time since last November.
The International Energy Agency said Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extended oil output cuts would result in a market deficit through the fourth quarter.
Prices had previously pulled back on a bearish US inventories report before resuming their climb.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, began limiting supplies in 2022 to bolster the market.
Earlier this month, benchmark Brent crude breached $90 a barrel for the first time this year after OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their combined 1.3 million barrel per day cuts until the end of 2023.
Output curbs by OPEC+ members of more than 2.5 million barrels per day since the start of 2023 have so far been offset by higher supplies from producers outside the alliance, including the United States, Brazil and still under sanctions, Iran, the agency said.
“But from September onwards, the loss of OPEC+ production… will drive a significant supply shortfall through the fourth quarter,” it said in its monthly oil report.
However, the lack of cuts at the start of next year would shift the balance to a surplus, the agency said, highlighting that stocks will be at uncomfortably low levels, increasing the risk of another surge in volatility in a fragile economic environment.
Prior to the IEA report, OPEC issued updated forecasts of solid demand and also pointed to a 2023 supply deficit if production cuts are maintained.
Market analysts warned that the move by Saudi Arabia and Russia could constrain supplies as the market approaches the peak northern hemisphere demand season for the winter period.
The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rate to a record peak but signalled this was likely its final move to tame inflation.
At the meeting on Thursday, it announced a 25-basis-point increase, and this pushed the rate the ECB pays on bank deposits to 4.0 per cent, the highest level since the Euro currency was launched in 1999.
Meanwhile, the central bank in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the second time this year to boost liquidity and support the country’s economic recovery.
China’s economic recovery has remained choppy, worrying markets about demand.
By Dipo Olowookere
The upward trend witnessed at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited in recent sessions continued on Thursday as it further improved by 0.10 per cent.
This was despite investor sentiment turning bearish after the local equity market ended with 23 price gainers and 28 price gainers, indicating a negative market breadth index.
UAC Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to finish at N88.00, Morison Industries appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N3.54, Ecobank rose by 8.53 per cent to N36.90, and Coronation Insurance grew by 8.47 per cent to N2.56.
On the flip side, Ellah Lakes depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N13.14, Eunisell Nigeria also shed 10.00 per cent to finish at N72.90, Transcorp Hotels slipped by 9.95 per cent to N157.50, Omatek shrank by 9.23 per cent to N1.18, and Guinea Insurance dipped by 8.46 per cent to N1.19.
Yesterday, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 152.28 points to 145,476.15 points from 145,323.87 points and the market capitalisation chalked up N97 billion to finish at N92.726 trillion compared with the previous day’s N92.629 trillion.
Customs Street was bubbling with activities on Thursday, though the trading volume and value slightly went down, according to data.
A total of 1.9 billion stocks worth N19.2 billion exchanged hands in 23,369 deals during the session versus the N2.3 billion valued at N21.0 billion traded in 21,513 deals a day earlier.
This showed that the number of deals increased by 8.63 per cent, the volume of transactions depleted by 17.39 per cent, and the value of trades decreased by 8.57 per cent.
For another trading day, eTranzact led the activity chart with 1.6 billion units sold for N6.4 billion, Fidelity Bank traded 31.0 million units worth N589.3 million, GTCO exchanged 28.3 million units valued at N2.5 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 27.1 million units for N1.6 billion, and Ecobank traded 21.9 million units worth N744.3 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira marginally depreciated against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Thursday, December 4 amid renewed forex pressure associated with December.
At the official market yesterday, the Nigerian currency lost 0.01 per cent or 18 Kobo against the Dollar to close at N1,447.83/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,447.65/$1.
It was not a different scenario with the local currency in the same market segment against the Pound Sterling as it further shed N15.43 to sell for N1,930.97/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing price of N1,925.08/£1 and declined against the Euro by 20 Kobo to finish at N1,688.74/€1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,688.54/€1.
Similarly, the Nigerian Naira lost N5 against the greenback in the black market to quote at N1,465/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,460/$1 but closed flat against the Dollar at the GTBank FX counter at N1,453/$1.
Fluctuations in trading range is expected to continue during the festive season as traders expect the Nigerian currency to be stable, supported by intervention s by to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)in the face of steady dollar demand.
Support is also expected in coming weeks as seasonal activities, particularly the stylised “Detty December” festivities, will see inflows that will give the Naira a boost after it depreciated mildly last month, according to a new report.
“As the festive Detty December season intensifies, inbound travel, tourism spending, and diaspora inflows are expected to provide moderate support for FX liquidity,” analysts at the research unit of FMDA said in its latest monthly report for November.
Traders cited by Reuters expect that the Naira will trade within a band of N1,443-N1,450 next week, buoyed by improved FX interventions by the apex bank.
Meanwhile, the crypto market was down as the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, likely rose in September—moving in the wrong direction. However, volatility indices show no signs of major turbulence.
If the actual figure matches estimates, it would mark 55 straight months of inflation above the US central bank’s 2 per cent target. The sticky inflation would strengthen the hawkish policymakers, who are in favour of slower rate cuts.
Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 4.5 per cent to $2.08, Solana (SOL) went down by 3.8 per cent to $138.11, Litecoin (LTC) shrank by 3.1 per cent to $83.23, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 2.5 per cent to $0.1463, Cardano (ADA) declined by 2.1 per cent to $0.4368, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.9 per cent to $91,975.45, Binance Coin (BNB) crumbled by 0.9 per cent to $899.41, and Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 0.7 per cent to $3,156.44, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 apiece.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices were up on Thursday amid investors’ expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, while stalled Ukraine peace talks tempered expectations of a deal restoring Russian oil flows.
Brent crude gained 59 cents or 0.94 per cent to trade at $63.26 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 72 cents or 1.22 per cent to $59.67 per barrel.
The market ticked up on expectations that a US rate cut will support the world’s largest economy and oil demand, after data showed employment is slowing.
Markets are pricing in an 89 per cent chance of a cut when the Federal Reserve meets on December 9-10, significantly higher than rate-cut bets just a couple of weeks ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Support also came as the dollar edged lower for its 10th straight day of losses against a basket of major currencies, making crude cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
Analysts noted that escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela were also supporting prices on concerns of a drop in crude supplies from the South American country, which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
US President Donald Trump’s administration is ratcheting up pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, signalling the possibility of a US invasion.
The perception that progress on a peace plan for Ukraine was stalling also supported prices, after President Trump’s representatives emerged from peace talks with the Kremlin with no resolution in sight.
Expectations of an end to the war had pressured prices lower, as traders anticipated a deal would allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market..
Meanwhile, Ukraine continued its assault on Russia’s energy infrastructure as it hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region, the fifth attack on the pipeline that sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
Kpler noted that Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has affected production to down around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, a 335,000 barrels per day year-on-year decline, with gasoline (petrol) hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker.
US crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refining activity picked up, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.
Crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended November 28, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 821,000-barrel draw.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions to reflect market oversupply and production growth that is expected to outstrip demand.
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